Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Torque]

OT: Anyone want to explain to me how a company like Peloton (PTON) can even go public IPO on the stonk market?

Launched in 2019 @ $25/share. Now $10/share, three years later.

I mean srsly? WTAF?

[bitmover]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Historically, the 200 WMA has only ever been touched a few times by spot price, but never deeply crossed. In other words, spot price shouldn't go below $22,287 (as of today). If spot price deeply crosses that value (i.e., goes below $20k), it will be a first in Bitcoin's 13-year history.

I think you're confusing price touching the 200 Week MA and closing (a Week) below the 200 Week MA. In reality, out of 4 times price reached this level, price went below it significantly three times (75%).

early 2015: under by about 15% and closed above
late 2015: under by about 12% (also closed just below for multiple weeks)
2018: only went $40 below and closed above
2020: under by about 29% (also closed just below for 1 week)

I'm not saying it has to do any of the above this time around, just stating the facts here. Ignoring a flash crash event like in 2020, then wicking under by 0%-15% would be completely normal.

As a reminder today is Monday, so price also has the rest of the week to wick below the 200 WMA, before being able to close above it or just below...

So far based on Daily volume (high) and price volatility (-16%), the capitulation does seem sufficient already.

[savetherainforest]

Bitcoin is useless and will never serve as a store of value or even as a payment system at a large scale. Not one regular person I speak with cares about it. Institutions have it by its balls now. Wouldn’t surprise me to see $18k within the next couple weeks or sooner. Long term we are heading to 10k and below.

$18K??    .. How about in the next 12 hours?!?    

[Wilhelm]

Bitcoin is useless and will never serve as a store of value or even as a payment system at a large scale. Not one regular person I speak with cares about it. Institutions have it by its balls now. Wouldn’t surprise me to see $18k within the next couple weeks or sooner. Long term we are heading to 10k and below.

That's what make them regular "poor" people

[suchmoon]

Not one regular person I speak with cares about it.

You should probably speak with more than one person.

[BitcoinBunny]

Bitcoin is useless and will never serve as a store of value or even as a payment system at a large scale. Not one regular person I speak with cares about it. Institutions have it by its balls now. Wouldn’t surprise me to see $18k within the next couple weeks or sooner. Long term we are heading to 10k and below.

Off! Off! Off!

[bitcoinPsycho]

Bitcoin is useless and will never serve as a store of value or even as a payment system at a large scale. Not one regular person I speak with cares about it. Institutions have it by its balls now. Wouldn’t surprise me to see $18k within the next couple weeks or sooner. Long term we are heading to 10k and below.

zeroknowledge

Name checks out

[AnotherAlt]

Bitcoin is useless

Well, I don't even want to read the full text that you have written after reading the first three words.
I understand why your username Zero knowledge

[Torque]

Stop engaging the trolls

[AlcoHoDL]

Historically, the 200 WMA has only ever been touched a few times by spot price, but never deeply crossed. In other words, spot price shouldn't go below $22,287 (as of today). If spot price deeply crosses that value (i.e., goes below $20k), it will be a first in Bitcoin's 13-year history.

I think you're confusing price touching the 200 Week MA and closing (a Week) below the 200 Week MA. In reality, out of 4 times price reached this level, price went below it significantly three times (75%).

early 2015: under by about 15%
late 2015: under by about 12% (also closed just below for multiple weeks)
2018: only went $40 below
2020: under by about 29% (also closed just below for 1 week)

I'm not saying it has to do any of the above this time around, just stating the facts here. Ignoring a flash crash event like in 2020, then wicking under by 0%-15% would be completely normal.

As a reminder today is Monday, so price also has the rest of the week to wick below the 200 WMA, before being able to close above it or just below...

So far based on Daily volume (high) and price volatility (-16%), the capitulation does seem sufficient already.

Thanks for that data, which I haven't confirmed, but have no reason to doubt. I haven't zoomed into the price action down to the minute, at the times it touched the 200 WMA, I'm just referring to the data in the chart that I linked to. Note that, in that 200 WMA chart, the spot price is daily, not weekly. So the chart time step is 1 day. OK, it's not instantaneous price down to the minute, so there could be rapid dips within each day, but does this really matter if the price rebounds within a day?

It looks like the price has started diverging from 200 WMA, in the right direction (), so the 200 WMA boundary may end up holding strong once more. We'll see...

[El duderino_]

[ImThour]

Bitcoin almost touched 200 WMA. I am now all in. Bitcoin is forming Bullish Divergence on the chart.
As I said earlier, bottom is in. Anything below this level is a jackpot. BTC

[empowering]

Bitcoin almost touched 200 WMA. I am now all in. Bitcoin is forming Bullish Divergence on the chart.
As I said earlier, bottom is in. Anything below this level is a jackpot. BTC

Forming..... not confirmed (yet)

[BitcoinBunny]

I think we may have hit the bottom. Usually the lows don't last very long as people buy in again.

[aesma]

Damn we're poor.

So far I had judged a possible bottom well I guess, my lower buy order was 23000, the next lower potential step was 22000 were I had no order...

[death_wish]

So...  It came within what, it looks like about 2% above third liquidation while I was passed out as a form of restless restfulness.  Much below my previous liquidation line at $23,201.46.

Just sold 0.05 BTC.  Pushed liquidation price down to about $22,080.  No choice with margin account health around 1.5%; last time I cut it this close (and I was at the computer fully functional), it was the first liquidation.  Another liquidation would dump more, with penalty.  (Not much more to dump, at this point.)

I chose the name for this forum account very well.

Congratulations to everyone who is buying BTC at these prices.

Ok, congrats, we've got a new mindrust!  

I am proud to say that I still have never voluntarily traded Bitcoin for dollars or other central bank shitcoins, in the usual form of “SELL” to exit BTC.  (Spent BTC in fiat-denominated transactions for goods and services—yes.  Traded BTC for alts, ultimately with net profit in BTC—yes.  Sold BTC for small amounts of fiat to pay little expenses—yes.  Sold BTC for fiat to hold the fiat instead of BTC, NO.)

That is cold comfort when I did something foolish and out of character, which trapped me and later caused me to lose almost all of my BTC.  But at least, I can look at myself in the mirror:  I am not mindrust!  I never have said, and never will say, “Oh, no, it’s going to zero!  I can’t take the risk!  Panic!  SELL!”

That sale hurt like pulling my own teeth.  But if I had not done it, then about two hours ago, while I was unconscious (not really sleeping), a liquidator bot would have sold more at a lower price.  With penalty.  I would have resumed consciousness with significantly less than 0.1 BTC remaining.

I am now struggling not to be crushed below 0.1 BTC.  This is freaking pathetic.  Only a day ago, I was still grieving at having been crushed significantly below 1.0 BTC.  (While standing like a deer in the headlights, so...)

NEWBIES, DON’T USE MARGIN!


P.S., somac., is this at least beginning to look like a bounce now?  Maybe?  (Or only if it doesn’t die off in a sad-looking wick at the top of this hour.....)

[jojo69]

unfortunately 2nd mortgage on a cardboard box under a bridge doesnt fetch much nowadays.

[empowering]

This is only monday.


Long week ahead.