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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26370806 times)
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death_wish
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June 13, 2022, 10:52:47 PM

The draft that I referenced earlier:

Ok?  and?  What's your point?  Another point is that trading is not a zero sum game, it can help in a lot of ways including price discovery, provides liquidity, allows for the creation of more financial tools which thereby motivates larger and larger players to get into the space.

Thanks, but I have also read the Wikipedia-level rationalization.

You couch your statement as an objective fact, whereas it is an expression of a philosophic worldview based on assumptions that most people never examine.  Proceeding to argue it would invoke critiques of capitalism—which, in turn, would undoubtedly attract the ire of someone who believes that reading Ayn Rand makes one an expert on the subject.  Besides being annoying, it would also be a waste of time when I recently declared my intent to be a “ruthless mercenary capitalist”.  As such, I will happily exploit the zero-sum game for my personal profit, in accord with its established rules.

I am trying to describe what is... and you were trying to denigrate trading and traders... <snip>

In the portion to which you replied, I described trading.  My description was accurate, objective, and stated without any moral value judgments.  Although I have said before that I frankly have a “cordial contempt” for the whole concept, your statement about “denigrating” traders grossly misrepresents what I said here—even as you quoted it:

Profitable trading definitionally requires “buy low, sell high” (same for shorts in the reverse order).  I think that mathematically, the only way to profit from “buying low, selling high” when the price sits still is to exploit some kind of a spread—either intra-market (market maker), or inter-market (arbitrage).  Those types of traders attempt to minimize the relevance of price volatility to themselves—in the extreme case, executing (or attempting to execute) risk-free trades with no exposure to price movements.  Others need volatility, for even a unidirectional price movement cannot bring them profit:  If the price only goes forever up to infinity, or forever down until it hits zero, then the only way to profit without leaving money on the table is “buy and hold” (or short and never cover), not actively to trade.

I believe that is a concise and cogent description of how traders profit.


 Perhaps I should stop writing forum posts, and write some code. Smiley

Not a bad idea, especially if you believe that bitcoin is deficient in various ways (which seems to frequently underly several of your ongoing talking points).  Then if you can get your code merged into bitcoin, that might NOT be a bad thing.

I could say.. "I used to know him back when he was a perpetual whiner.  Now, he's a superstar, but still doesn't seem to know shit about personal risk management."    . hahahaha  

Good projects don’t need yes-men:  They need people who passionately care about the project.  Bad projects are where I’d expect to be attacked by shills for daring to suggest, earnestly wishing to help and not hurt, that the project is not already absolutely perfect in every way.  But set that aside.

If this were bitcoin-dev or Core’s GH, then it may be appropriate to say “patches welcome” in the traditional open-source way.  But this is a general Bitcoin discussion—one where developers and non-developers alike may offer opinions, wishes, and constructive criticism—one where, incidentally, I have been not-so-subtly seeking a productive meeting of the minds with anyone who would fully understand the post hereby linkedor this one.  As it stands, if you want to call me a “whiner”, I don’t mind asking how many lines of quality open-source code you have contributed to the Bitcoin ecosystem—or asking if you want to give me money, to encourage me to meet your coding expectations.

I do want to go and develop a Bitcoin ecosystem project that’s on my mind.  Instead, once I am done for now with this little posting spree (more or less frustrated procrastination when I’m stuck with no good way to avoid more immediate wreckage if BTC soon dips below 200 WMA), I will probably ignore WO for awhile as I wander off to Solanaland.

Why?  A moneymaking robot that I already have partly developed is my best short-term prospect.

Don’t like it?  I will not stay poor for the sake of some misguided notion of moral purity, when I have an honest prospect to make reliable money without risk in any market condition.  Given the amount of time that I have spent on this forum, making thoughtful contributions that others appreciated while never wearing a paid signature under any account, I will damn well tell any critics here to STFU.

Why there?  It is the only place I know where I can make this type of a bot—other than KYC exchanges.  I refuse crypto-exchange KYC, period.  And this wouldn’t work as well on a CEX, anyway.

Am I angry at what Solana’s founder said about Bitcoin, energy, and POS?  Furious.  Short-term, my best revenge is to make money on his chain, buy BTC, and store the BTC in my wallet on Bitcoin’s gloriously energetic POW blockchain.  Extra points for devising clever ways to bot money out of the SOL market and every other VC shitcoin market there, to buy BTC.  Some people work jobs they hate for corporations they despise, and buy BTC; I’ll do at least a bit better, working for myself on something which, in itself, I enjoy!

Time to be a ruthless mercenary capitalist.

How’s that for a pragmatic, cut-and-dry business attitude towards money?

When I have attained the financially stability to self-fund spending my dev cycles purely as I please, then I can think about shifting focus.  I’d love to do a Bitcoin ecosystem project—for Core, or with something built on Bitcoin.



As for my financial risk management skills—I don’t know what you got out of my posts for the past month, but you do not know me.  I did fine for years.  You would call me “overinvested”; I simply say that it shows how much I believe in BTC.  I am willing to be financially dependent on Bitcoin.  No long-term fiat savings in the bank—losing my BTC means losing my shirt—no escape hatch, if Bitcoin truly dies someday.  That is a matter of consciously choosing my life priorities, not a lack of risk management skills.  And I was doing fine.

Then, I did something foolish and out of character.  It spun out of control to the point where I very rapidly made every newbie mistake in the book.  Trying margin “just once” turned out for me to be like the fate of some people who try doing drugs “just once”.

Desperation to salvage the situation only made it worse.  I have no talent for placing manual trades under pressure—none! and no prior experience with that circumstance!  My usual way of managing money is to think things over, sleep it over, and then act.  I am not a gambler, your assumptions and misrepresentations to the contrary notwithstanding.

If I stick to what I’m good at, and don’t do anything else foolish and out of character, then I will again be fine—miserable for awhile, but fine.  After the hell that I have put myself through here, and the 2256 times I have berated myself “why did I do that!?”, I think that I have adequately learned my lesson about playing n00bish chicken-games with margin.

I dearly hope that my sorrows here will be a salutary lesson to others—those who don’t know better, which I did, which only makes it worse for me.
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June 13, 2022, 11:01:01 PM
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.. looking for a new low again Roll Eyes

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June 13, 2022, 11:01:31 PM
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.. looking for a new low again Roll Eyes



It seems so….
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June 13, 2022, 11:04:54 PM


Explanation
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June 13, 2022, 11:07:26 PM
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and i thought i was lucky the other day to buy some at ~27k as i thought i almost missed the dip.

lol

*cries*

That's why you should spend only 25% of your second mortgage cashout on any single dip. JJG will corroborate.

unfortunately 2nd mortgage on a cardboard box under a bridge doesnt fetch much nowadays.

You are too humble.  Tongue

I suppose they could..

No, they will eventually fail always to a market move that would require more funds than the controlling entity has available.

I don't really have anything to disagree with you, yet we can understand that the terra/luna and related coins/projects were shittily designed from the start because they were luring investors into the whole scheme by enticing them with interest rates that were NOT even close to being sustainable (up to 20% annum in some cases).. and I suppose if there could be a way to NOT show exactly how the "peg to the dollar" is being held, then an attacker might not know how to attack, but part of the problem still remains that there has to be some way (besides new depositors) to earn the amount of the interest - and surely as the interest rates start to go down, then perhaps some folks would withdraw their money and cause cascading.. that ultimately is not stoppable - even if hiding how the peg is held.. because maybe in some sense reasonable inferences can be made, resulting in the same conclusion that the ONLY real and meaningful way to hold a peg is to have actual backing - which they would not be able to offer such high interest rates if they were to actually have real backing.

Did you hear about that bitcoiner who went into a coma back in 2015?
Apparently, he just woke up last night.
When he checked the price of bitcoin he was like....
 "WOO HOO!  23K .....I'M RICH!!!

7 year coma?  Something sounds fishy about that story.

I thought that comas were 10 years in duration?

O.k... maybe I will bite?

Was his name "Biodom" or better yet:  " 'friend' of Biodom"?

hahahaha

that might make sense, and did he buy 20 coins?

I know... I know.. OpSec.. you cannot tell me.

I get it... kind of.

Celsius? First time I've even heard of it! Will people ever learn not to give their Bitcoins to centralized money-grabbers?

Sadly, no!

First time I've heard of it was here in WO. There were posts about how one could earn interest on their BTC, by lending their coins to them! And there were a few fools that posted positive remarks about them.

Bitcoin's most important feature is the ability to truly own it, by holding the keys to your coins. Who, in their right mind, would give that away, by transferring ownership of such a precious object to some company with a fancy-looking website promising them some interest? "Not your keys, not your coins."—proven once again. The moment those greedy coiners surrendered their coins to Celsius, was the moment they became delayed nocoiners. They never really had the mindset necessary to own and appreciate Bitcoin—and it slipped right through their paper hands.

The sooner Celsius and all other similar companies go under, the better for everyone.

I remember that also.

Glad I took no notice of that crap.

For sure there have been some timeframes in which a lot of emphasis was being put on "earning yield" from your BTC, so I would imagine that some WO regulars had gotten drawn into Celsius... for "easy" money.  Anyone going to admit it?

I will make an admission that there was a time (I believe right around the time of the 2017 forkening) that I had an account on on an exchange that was paying really high interest rates, so I did put a portion of my BTC into that program for a few months. and I made a shitton of return for a few months.. and then I stopped doing it.. even though I can see how normies can get lured into that kind of way of "holding" their coins. 
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June 13, 2022, 11:09:01 PM

.. looking for a new low again Roll Eyes



It seems so….


It's because I bought today (a small amount of BTC).  I'm sorry.  My speculations go the wrong way some 80% of the time (for a few days...).
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June 13, 2022, 11:09:35 PM

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.
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June 13, 2022, 11:10:48 PM

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

Hope for you and every HODLer price goes in favor for them

Cheers
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Meh.


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June 13, 2022, 11:11:10 PM

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

What's the exact 200 WMA price?
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June 13, 2022, 11:14:00 PM

Peter Brandt is depressing....but has one valid point to consider:

in his opinion an asset that repeatedly declines more than 80% is not an investment, but speculation.
Well, 80% down from 67566.87 (highest closing vs intraday 68789.63) is $13513.
Currently, we are at about 66.7% decline from the highest closing.

So, if you subscribe to PB view, it's showtime for bitcoin to show it's mettle as an investment vehicle.
Note that I don't talk about a "store of value' because i don't think there is one, unfortunately.
I guess clean water, food, air and a powered shelter are 'stores of value', but we can't put them in a "bottle" to use when needed.
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June 13, 2022, 11:14:27 PM
Merited by Hhampuz (1)

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

What's the exact 200 WMA price?

Where we are now... What we are now breaking...  $22.3k last I checked.
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June 13, 2022, 11:14:45 PM
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* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

What's the exact 200 WMA price?

right here plus minus $100
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June 13, 2022, 11:16:49 PM
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Imo it’s more bigger players who are selling instead of the avg joe’s

If I see friends etc they are all HODLing and more like whatever instead of selling
Even buying some spare cash into this DIP

Also this kind of drops isn’t coming from a few 100 000’s of avg joe’s selling at the same time on the same date…..

Some peoples will stacking more coins as they had… maybe some will lose some
But I think some have great strategic moves and will come out fine with what they do, for us little peeps it’s just one of those moments we have to sit out….

One thing is for sure… avg joe’s are creating BTC maxi’s and No-coiners…. Probably nothing inbetween
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June 13, 2022, 11:16:58 PM

Well... Well....
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June 13, 2022, 11:17:26 PM

^ Well, guess it's time to HODL that $22k in that case..

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June 13, 2022, 11:19:38 PM


I guess, for the first time in BTC history we will touch the former cycle's ATH in the new cycle.

This will invalidate the old rule that any buyer will be in profit within less than 4 years..  


'this time is different' they said... it might true, but not in a way we like.


For now it seems "they" really tamed BTC, as even the run-up this cycle was on the lower end of expectations (at least for me).

Well, since BTC tends to surprise everyone, bears and bulls alike, I wouldn't count out a 4x until years end...   Wink
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June 13, 2022, 11:21:37 PM

.. looking for a new low again Roll Eyes



It seems so….


It's because I bought today (a small amount of BTC).  I'm sorry.  My speculations go the wrong way some 80% of the time (for a few days...).

please decide to sell, soon  Smiley
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June 13, 2022, 11:26:30 PM

Even with this face melting sell-off i can still remain retired.

I don't need to think about it to be a slavewager again.

Maybe I should not ask, but are you still ok. under $10k?  or $5k?

Those might not be realistic numbers

because

we have dips in the BTC price, and we also have questions regarding how sustainable such dips might be

Ok... maybe I retract my question.. because I sound like a troll or a bitcoin naysayer.. because I think that even if we were to experience a sipke down to $14k.. it would likely not be sustainable for more than a couple of weeks at most...

So then the more practical question still might be if some BTC is sold along the way, and then we have a BTC price dip, then how long can you (or any of the other normie HODLers participating in this here thread) wait for the BTC price to go back up.. whether it is presuming to go back above the 200-week moving average, the 100 week moving average, or some other target price area?
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June 13, 2022, 11:26:36 PM
Merited by death_wish (1)

Highest inflation for forty years? Better buy some USD. Herp-derp.
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June 13, 2022, 11:29:51 PM

I just got rekt in the wick below 200 WMA.  Compounding the injury, my desperate 0.01 BTC sell order executed just as the liquidator bot closed in to sell more.  I was left with just over 0.03 BTC in total.  I had some margin available again, so I have been trying to grab back some sats... why not, at this point.  hey, I got myself over 0.04 BTC.

Just in case any newbies are still wondering whether BTC margin is a good idea..... or in case anyone else needs to feel extra-smug about the coins y’all have in your wallets...  I think that my personal train wreck here is done, because it barely even matters anymore if I keep getting ground down into dust.  insert curse words here.  I have rainy-day funds that i refused to let be eaten by the margin account after I had thrown in so much else, so I won’t starve...  I have some things I can use to rebuild...  but I am very close to official nocoiner status.

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

What's the exact 200 WMA price?

Where we are now... What we are now breaking...  $22.3k last I checked.
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