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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (8.9%)
8/4 - 16 (12.9%)
8/11 - 8 (6.5%)
8/18 - 6 (4.8%)
8/25 - 8 (6.5%)
After August - 74 (59.7%)
Total Voters: 124

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26487955 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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June 13, 2022, 09:53:07 PM

Is #Bitcoin  dipping again?
I feel nothing…

https://twitter.com/btc_archive/status/1536297448255152128?s=21


No Bitcoiners do.


We are all "psychopaths" apparently remember ?


So we are all woamen??!   Grin  Cheesy  Cheesy  

We're the crowd watching it burn.

and using the fire to warm up our ramen noodles.
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June 13, 2022, 10:03:28 PM


Explanation
Dabs
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The Concierge of Crypto


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June 13, 2022, 10:17:40 PM



Hi there ChartBuddy.
death_wish
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Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.


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June 13, 2022, 10:18:01 PM

Looks like we got some capitulation today.  Volumes are spiking up to near the Do Kwon disaster now and it appears the worst is behind us (for now).  The dead cat bounce to $24K doesn't appear to be holding, so I expect we'll do some testing of these new recent lows.  With Binance resuming withdrawals though, it seems like today's low may finally be in after a night of crypto being ravaged.  Stocks are taking a hit as well, so it begs the question of if the Fed will continue raising rates and winding down their balance sheet.  Unless they're pivoting to a new strategy, I expect we'll hear some news about backing off their plans this week.  After living through the 2008-2012 period, I expect billions of dollars in stimulus to be announced anytime the market shows disapproval of the Government's actions.  In this case though, we may need Fed action as the government appears to be backed into a corner.

Historically, what happened to the Bitcoin price after stimulus?

Within the 13 years of Bitcoin’s existence—within the approximately 11–12 years that Bitcoin has had some sort of a functioning market, there is no prior precedent for the post-Covid “stimulus” situation.

A more interest question:  Historically, what happened in scenarios that were partly analogous from various angles?

I myself am not inclined to undertake that discussion in WO.  But it is something to consider.



A related note, not directed at the persons quoted above:

I warn against the foreshortening of predictions, and generally against jumping to conclusions.  Since the 1970s at the latest, every astute observer has known that the global financial system must someday collapse.  It is based on politicians who act on time horizons of the next election, CEOs who act on time horizons of the next earnings report, and whole generations of people who bequeath the results of their own selfishness and foolishness to their own descendants:  A house of cards built on debt and duplicitous accounting tricks, as inheritance.  It is unsustainable.  However, that does not mean that anyone can accurately predict what will happen when.  The can has been kicked down the road for a long time; who knows how much longer that can continue?

For an admittedly rough analogy:  “Number go up” is a more or less reliable long-term prediction about Bitcoin.  But opening leveraged longs based on that is a poor idea—a poor idea.

Always be cautious about crystal-ball predictions of the future, and weigh the balance of probabilities based on available evidence.
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June 13, 2022, 10:19:57 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1)

Even though the falling is coming to the reality as predicted by many to reach $20k but they all got it wrong with their sayings about bitcoin as same with other cryptocurrencies, $23k is really a pretty entry point for many investors to take advantage of and enter the market.

You must be new here.. .......wait


I agree with what you seem to be saying.. but you gotta be careful to not be so ambiguous when using a term in which you are probably implying that shitcoins are shit.. especially when they are compared with the longer term proposition of bitcoin and that the mainstream tends to lump them all together..  but the way you say it and what you say is also vague... so in that sense, was it even helpful for you to phrase it like that?  Not a big deal, but just suggesting that there might be better ways to more clearly say what you want to say.. especially as soon as you decide to mention shitcoins within your attempt to make some kind of point about bitcoin being better (if that might have been what you were trying to suggest?).

So... I am actually excited about what is currently happening.

Part of it really sucks.  The world macro environment, war, WEF nonsense, fourth turning, biological war on the west, war in the old USSR, and financial war between China Russia and the west and so on...  

Butt the part that I have been WAITING FOR is the ultimate rug pull on the finance folks that try to do with BTC what they have done with the USD, paper gold etc.  It is the rehypothication that has been talked about for years.  It is exactly how Charlie Munger intended to "take care" of bitcoin from his famous quote a while back.  Tame it, I think he said.

But Bitcoin has novel properties that will cause the people that play this game HUGE LOSSES.  When people start demanding their keys and custodying themselves then the margin calls come in like a nuclear bomb.

People keep comparing this Celcius thing to the Luna one as if they are two separate things.

They are not.

And there are more to come, most likely...  it's going to be really volatile for a while, I think...

Even though I want to yell at you like "old man yells at the clouds," I am having difficulties coming up with a strong enough premise to tell you that you are wwwwwwrrrrrrooooonnnnnggggg - when you happen to not be.. .. you suck.

Made my first BTC purchase after a big while. My ~20% portfolio = BTC. And this ain't a trade or something, it's the long-term hodl.

For the remaining 80%, I'm gonna wait & be extra cautious throughout the year. Going to keep watching Fed's actions & speeches closely. I won't mind getting more BTC exposure at a bit higher price in case I miss the bottom, but I really wanna see Fed's behavior getting a bit softer than right now for further BTC exposure. As of now, dollar is just too strong to ignore.

~35% portfolio = BTC

When we (maybe beyond royal?) build the contemplated statue dedicated to ImThour, would you like to share in the statue space layout or would you want to have your own lillie statue all to your smartass lilie selfie?

I imagine you feel superior to Johnny come later folks like ImThour since you had your call for BTC spot price to meet the 200-week moving average in about June 2021 which was surely ahead of the vast majority of the subsequent Johnny come laters guys...  (As a factual matter, the 200-week moving average did add $9k onto it from $13.3k-ish in June 2021 as compared with $22.3k today).
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June 13, 2022, 10:52:47 PM

The draft that I referenced earlier:

Ok?  and?  What's your point?  Another point is that trading is not a zero sum game, it can help in a lot of ways including price discovery, provides liquidity, allows for the creation of more financial tools which thereby motivates larger and larger players to get into the space.

Thanks, but I have also read the Wikipedia-level rationalization.

You couch your statement as an objective fact, whereas it is an expression of a philosophic worldview based on assumptions that most people never examine.  Proceeding to argue it would invoke critiques of capitalism—which, in turn, would undoubtedly attract the ire of someone who believes that reading Ayn Rand makes one an expert on the subject.  Besides being annoying, it would also be a waste of time when I recently declared my intent to be a “ruthless mercenary capitalist”.  As such, I will happily exploit the zero-sum game for my personal profit, in accord with its established rules.

I am trying to describe what is... and you were trying to denigrate trading and traders... <snip>

In the portion to which you replied, I described trading.  My description was accurate, objective, and stated without any moral value judgments.  Although I have said before that I frankly have a “cordial contempt” for the whole concept, your statement about “denigrating” traders grossly misrepresents what I said here—even as you quoted it:

Profitable trading definitionally requires “buy low, sell high” (same for shorts in the reverse order).  I think that mathematically, the only way to profit from “buying low, selling high” when the price sits still is to exploit some kind of a spread—either intra-market (market maker), or inter-market (arbitrage).  Those types of traders attempt to minimize the relevance of price volatility to themselves—in the extreme case, executing (or attempting to execute) risk-free trades with no exposure to price movements.  Others need volatility, for even a unidirectional price movement cannot bring them profit:  If the price only goes forever up to infinity, or forever down until it hits zero, then the only way to profit without leaving money on the table is “buy and hold” (or short and never cover), not actively to trade.

I believe that is a concise and cogent description of how traders profit.


 Perhaps I should stop writing forum posts, and write some code. Smiley

Not a bad idea, especially if you believe that bitcoin is deficient in various ways (which seems to frequently underly several of your ongoing talking points).  Then if you can get your code merged into bitcoin, that might NOT be a bad thing.

I could say.. "I used to know him back when he was a perpetual whiner.  Now, he's a superstar, but still doesn't seem to know shit about personal risk management."    . hahahaha  

Good projects don’t need yes-men:  They need people who passionately care about the project.  Bad projects are where I’d expect to be attacked by shills for daring to suggest, earnestly wishing to help and not hurt, that the project is not already absolutely perfect in every way.  But set that aside.

If this were bitcoin-dev or Core’s GH, then it may be appropriate to say “patches welcome” in the traditional open-source way.  But this is a general Bitcoin discussion—one where developers and non-developers alike may offer opinions, wishes, and constructive criticism—one where, incidentally, I have been not-so-subtly seeking a productive meeting of the minds with anyone who would fully understand the post hereby linkedor this one.  As it stands, if you want to call me a “whiner”, I don’t mind asking how many lines of quality open-source code you have contributed to the Bitcoin ecosystem—or asking if you want to give me money, to encourage me to meet your coding expectations.

I do want to go and develop a Bitcoin ecosystem project that’s on my mind.  Instead, once I am done for now with this little posting spree (more or less frustrated procrastination when I’m stuck with no good way to avoid more immediate wreckage if BTC soon dips below 200 WMA), I will probably ignore WO for awhile as I wander off to Solanaland.

Why?  A moneymaking robot that I already have partly developed is my best short-term prospect.

Don’t like it?  I will not stay poor for the sake of some misguided notion of moral purity, when I have an honest prospect to make reliable money without risk in any market condition.  Given the amount of time that I have spent on this forum, making thoughtful contributions that others appreciated while never wearing a paid signature under any account, I will damn well tell any critics here to STFU.

Why there?  It is the only place I know where I can make this type of a bot—other than KYC exchanges.  I refuse crypto-exchange KYC, period.  And this wouldn’t work as well on a CEX, anyway.

Am I angry at what Solana’s founder said about Bitcoin, energy, and POS?  Furious.  Short-term, my best revenge is to make money on his chain, buy BTC, and store the BTC in my wallet on Bitcoin’s gloriously energetic POW blockchain.  Extra points for devising clever ways to bot money out of the SOL market and every other VC shitcoin market there, to buy BTC.  Some people work jobs they hate for corporations they despise, and buy BTC; I’ll do at least a bit better, working for myself on something which, in itself, I enjoy!

Time to be a ruthless mercenary capitalist.

How’s that for a pragmatic, cut-and-dry business attitude towards money?

When I have attained the financially stability to self-fund spending my dev cycles purely as I please, then I can think about shifting focus.  I’d love to do a Bitcoin ecosystem project—for Core, or with something built on Bitcoin.



As for my financial risk management skills—I don’t know what you got out of my posts for the past month, but you do not know me.  I did fine for years.  You would call me “overinvested”; I simply say that it shows how much I believe in BTC.  I am willing to be financially dependent on Bitcoin.  No long-term fiat savings in the bank—losing my BTC means losing my shirt—no escape hatch, if Bitcoin truly dies someday.  That is a matter of consciously choosing my life priorities, not a lack of risk management skills.  And I was doing fine.

Then, I did something foolish and out of character.  It spun out of control to the point where I very rapidly made every newbie mistake in the book.  Trying margin “just once” turned out for me to be like the fate of some people who try doing drugs “just once”.

Desperation to salvage the situation only made it worse.  I have no talent for placing manual trades under pressure—none! and no prior experience with that circumstance!  My usual way of managing money is to think things over, sleep it over, and then act.  I am not a gambler, your assumptions and misrepresentations to the contrary notwithstanding.

If I stick to what I’m good at, and don’t do anything else foolish and out of character, then I will again be fine—miserable for awhile, but fine.  After the hell that I have put myself through here, and the 2256 times I have berated myself “why did I do that!?”, I think that I have adequately learned my lesson about playing n00bish chicken-games with margin.

I dearly hope that my sorrows here will be a salutary lesson to others—those who don’t know better, which I did, which only makes it worse for me.
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bitcoin retard


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June 13, 2022, 11:01:01 PM
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.. looking for a new low again Roll Eyes

El duderino_
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BTC + Crossfit, living life.


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June 13, 2022, 11:01:31 PM
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.. looking for a new low again Roll Eyes



It seems so….
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June 13, 2022, 11:04:54 PM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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June 13, 2022, 11:07:26 PM
Merited by OROBTC (1)

and i thought i was lucky the other day to buy some at ~27k as i thought i almost missed the dip.

lol

*cries*

That's why you should spend only 25% of your second mortgage cashout on any single dip. JJG will corroborate.

unfortunately 2nd mortgage on a cardboard box under a bridge doesnt fetch much nowadays.

You are too humble.  Tongue

I suppose they could..

No, they will eventually fail always to a market move that would require more funds than the controlling entity has available.

I don't really have anything to disagree with you, yet we can understand that the terra/luna and related coins/projects were shittily designed from the start because they were luring investors into the whole scheme by enticing them with interest rates that were NOT even close to being sustainable (up to 20% annum in some cases).. and I suppose if there could be a way to NOT show exactly how the "peg to the dollar" is being held, then an attacker might not know how to attack, but part of the problem still remains that there has to be some way (besides new depositors) to earn the amount of the interest - and surely as the interest rates start to go down, then perhaps some folks would withdraw their money and cause cascading.. that ultimately is not stoppable - even if hiding how the peg is held.. because maybe in some sense reasonable inferences can be made, resulting in the same conclusion that the ONLY real and meaningful way to hold a peg is to have actual backing - which they would not be able to offer such high interest rates if they were to actually have real backing.

Did you hear about that bitcoiner who went into a coma back in 2015?
Apparently, he just woke up last night.
When he checked the price of bitcoin he was like....
 "WOO HOO!  23K .....I'M RICH!!!

7 year coma?  Something sounds fishy about that story.

I thought that comas were 10 years in duration?

O.k... maybe I will bite?

Was his name "Biodom" or better yet:  " 'friend' of Biodom"?

hahahaha

that might make sense, and did he buy 20 coins?

I know... I know.. OpSec.. you cannot tell me.

I get it... kind of.

Celsius? First time I've even heard of it! Will people ever learn not to give their Bitcoins to centralized money-grabbers?

Sadly, no!

First time I've heard of it was here in WO. There were posts about how one could earn interest on their BTC, by lending their coins to them! And there were a few fools that posted positive remarks about them.

Bitcoin's most important feature is the ability to truly own it, by holding the keys to your coins. Who, in their right mind, would give that away, by transferring ownership of such a precious object to some company with a fancy-looking website promising them some interest? "Not your keys, not your coins."—proven once again. The moment those greedy coiners surrendered their coins to Celsius, was the moment they became delayed nocoiners. They never really had the mindset necessary to own and appreciate Bitcoin—and it slipped right through their paper hands.

The sooner Celsius and all other similar companies go under, the better for everyone.

I remember that also.

Glad I took no notice of that crap.

For sure there have been some timeframes in which a lot of emphasis was being put on "earning yield" from your BTC, so I would imagine that some WO regulars had gotten drawn into Celsius... for "easy" money.  Anyone going to admit it?

I will make an admission that there was a time (I believe right around the time of the 2017 forkening) that I had an account on on an exchange that was paying really high interest rates, so I did put a portion of my BTC into that program for a few months. and I made a shitton of return for a few months.. and then I stopped doing it.. even though I can see how normies can get lured into that kind of way of "holding" their coins. 
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June 13, 2022, 11:09:01 PM

.. looking for a new low again Roll Eyes



It seems so….


It's because I bought today (a small amount of BTC).  I'm sorry.  My speculations go the wrong way some 80% of the time (for a few days...).
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June 13, 2022, 11:09:35 PM

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.
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June 13, 2022, 11:10:48 PM

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

Hope for you and every HODLer price goes in favor for them

Cheers
Hhampuz
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Meh.


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June 13, 2022, 11:11:10 PM

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

What's the exact 200 WMA price?
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June 13, 2022, 11:14:00 PM

Peter Brandt is depressing....but has one valid point to consider:

in his opinion an asset that repeatedly declines more than 80% is not an investment, but speculation.
Well, 80% down from 67566.87 (highest closing vs intraday 68789.63) is $13513.
Currently, we are at about 66.7% decline from the highest closing.

So, if you subscribe to PB view, it's showtime for bitcoin to show it's mettle as an investment vehicle.
Note that I don't talk about a "store of value' because i don't think there is one, unfortunately.
I guess clean water, food, air and a powered shelter are 'stores of value', but we can't put them in a "bottle" to use when needed.
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June 13, 2022, 11:14:27 PM
Merited by Hhampuz (1)

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

What's the exact 200 WMA price?

Where we are now... What we are now breaking...  $22.3k last I checked.
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June 13, 2022, 11:14:45 PM
Merited by Hhampuz (1)

* death_wish crosses his fingers and prays to Divine Bitcoin that the 200 WMA line has the most solid wall of bid support in the history of all markets.

Dear newbies:  This is what margin does to you.

What's the exact 200 WMA price?

right here plus minus $100
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June 13, 2022, 11:16:49 PM
Merited by Paashaas (1), Gachapin (1)

Imo it’s more bigger players who are selling instead of the avg joe’s

If I see friends etc they are all HODLing and more like whatever instead of selling
Even buying some spare cash into this DIP

Also this kind of drops isn’t coming from a few 100 000’s of avg joe’s selling at the same time on the same date…..

Some peoples will stacking more coins as they had… maybe some will lose some
But I think some have great strategic moves and will come out fine with what they do, for us little peeps it’s just one of those moments we have to sit out….

One thing is for sure… avg joe’s are creating BTC maxi’s and No-coiners…. Probably nothing inbetween
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June 13, 2022, 11:16:58 PM

Well... Well....
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Meh.


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June 13, 2022, 11:17:26 PM

^ Well, guess it's time to HODL that $22k in that case..

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