Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hisslyness]

Yesterday there was the continuous mass-selling of 0.81001 BTC increments on stamp.

Today it has changed to 0.812 BTC

Someone got tired of typing 001 and replaced it with a 2…

[Gachapin]

Yesterday there was the continuous mass-selling of 0.81001 BTC increments on stamp.

Today it has changed to 0.812 BTC

Someone got tired of typing 001 and replaced it with a 2…

sure... 

[BitcoinBunny]

There goes 22K.

Oh well.

Goodnight and take care.

[death_wish]

I don’t disagree with you about that, either.  You do understand that when I just went through five months of hell and destroyed my own assets with foolishness that I had previously warned others against, I am urgently, passionately warning those who don’t know better—which I did, which makes it worse for me.

Even after my recent experiences, I may try margin again someday.  For example, if I were to devote serious time and effort to studying mathematical finance (I’ve been dabbling with it lately, on a “beginner dipping a toe in” level), become a Real Quant(TM), and create a thoroughly backtested algorithmic HFT bot based on a rigoroous probability model, then—well, then, at that point I would know if and how that bot should use leverage!

Until then, I will stay the hell away from margin.  And I don’t need it.  I can write other bots, that do more basic stuff without risks...  I’m working on that; it was my plan to save my bitcoins from debt that I otherwise had no way to repay.

I will advise others accordingly.

It’s an interesting thought and something worth looking into.
But what i think speaks against bots ever reaching a level to survive such volatile markets consistently, even if based on the best mathematical finance, are two factors:

1. The market is basically infinitely complex, there will never be a point where every possible influencing factor can be modelled into a bot correctly, it’s a catching up game that never ends.

2. Markets are ruled by irrationally, a bot would need to understand emotion, deception, manipulation, politics and other factors.

Although nothing is impossible, i think it’s more efficient to just stick to fundamentals and keep it simple. The market is too much human influenced to be predicted by mathematics. Simple dca and spending time to accumulate more fiat trough businesses or well paying jobs will probably beat trying to time the market, in most cases.

I want to make it very clear, I am not encouraging any kind of TA or day-trading strategies!

TA is astrology.  (And doubt that anyone could accuse me of low IQ—not that I care.  Cheers to ImThour for his savvy buy, but his forum account personal text is nonsense.)

And (as an issue distinct from but overlapping with TA), amateur day-trading is gambling, maybe getting lucky for awhile, and then getting rekt.

I do not want my posts to mislead anyone.

I am not worried about newbies getting burned experimenting with what I meant by “Real Quant(TM)” stuff—because they can’t.  For instance, here is a screenshot from a tiny part of one page of one academic research paper in the vast field of mathematical finance—I found this some time ago, when I first got curious about how professional market maker bots work:



LOL, I am not worried about newbies getting burned messing with that!

Post to be continued.  Sorry, I was not joking in what I just wrote to vapourminer... limited writing abilities now, hahahah.  I just want to make it absolutely clear for the recvord that newbies should not get the notion that they can beat the market with some fancy-pants trading strategy they found on the web, or got in a hot tip from whomever, or whatever.

What I was talking about requires a ton of maths.  Institutional trading firms such as Blackrock hire people with university degrees in this field.  And they are backed by billions of dollars in capital.  And they run high-performance computer equipment and low-latency networking that you are unlikely ever to obtain.

Besides the general problem that you cannot predict the market to begin with:  You will not beat them with any trading strategy that can >99% of people could actually do.  They will eat you alive.  They will take all of your money.  You will lose, and then you will cry just like me right now... what the hell did I do.........

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

Eh, 200 WMA?

btw, what is the biggest-ever % dip below 200 WMA, other than the Covid crash which I do not think can be compared to any other event in the past few decades?  Off the top of my head, I do not know.  I know it could scrape along a little bit below it for awhile, without setting any new precedents.

[HI-TEC99]

Normally the poll option with the least votes gets it right.

I'm hoping that's how it works for this poll, above $21k.

Where is the bottom?

...

$21,001-$22,000    1 (3.1%)

[PokestarFan]

remember "the herd is coming" ?  

This is what it looks like when they're leaving ...


welcome to 21k...  probably last cycle's ATH next...   100k EOY  

Well it still can hit 20k. And now way we're getting 100k this year with the crazy 8-9% annual inflation rates being reported every month.

[Biodom]

Sell and buy back immediately, harvest losses...if your trading vol is high enough,  the fees should be  low enough. HIFO with losses harvested make for the best strategy, IMO for US tax payers

Gotta be careful to not screw yourself with short-term vs long-term cap gains though. Loss carry-over is also a potential issue.

yes, those $3K/year are not very generous, lol

but if a 20k sale creates a 40k loss then if you buy it back

and the 20 k rallies to 80k you can sell 40k in under a year with no tax.

and have 20k left over.

maybe 40 leftover, but yea, pretty much so.
It's just difficult to time the trades well.
You blink and could be buying 5K above your sell.
js

[Khanvila78]

JUST IN – Brazilian Congressman introduces bill to recognize bitcoin and crypto as means of payment 🇧🇷


Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1536451596640473090

[BobLawblaw]

I feel something beginning to resemble a pain sensation.

Curious.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hisslyness]

I feel something beginning to resemble a pain sensation.

Curious.

What's your LN node routing stats looking like today? I was hoping for a significant increase in traffic, but not seeing that.. seems rather stable, if anything, less busy the last 24 hours...

[Gachapin]

I feel something beginning to resemble a pain sensation.

Curious.

I think that's the reason why I have a hard time following your reasonable advice to go in hibernation during bear markets.


It's a bit like watching the injured of a bad accident ...but with the twist that one the casualties is myself

[philipma1957]

Eh, 200 WMA?

btw, what is the biggest-ever % dip below 200 WMA, other than the Covid crash which I do not think can be compared to any other event in the past few decades?  Off the top of my head, I do not know.  I know it could scrape along a little bit below it for awhile, without setting any new precedents.

look at july + august 2020

[Biodom]

Eh, 200 WMA?

btw, what is the biggest-ever % dip below 200 WMA, other than the Covid crash which I do not think can be compared to any other event in the past few decades?  Off the top of my head, I do not know.  I know it could scrape along a little bit below it for awhile, without setting any new precedents.

covid (march 2020) was the biggest, went to 300 WMA on a wick.
average was 5.3K, went to 3.8K, so about 28% below 200 WMA.
The equivalent (on a wick) would be about 15.8K (just numbers, no prediction whatsoever).

[Richy_T]

If anyone works out who is responsible for this, a swift kick in the nuts is in order.

[PokestarFan]

JUST IN – Brazilian Congressman introduces bill to recognize bitcoin and crypto as means of payment 🇧🇷


Source: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1536451596640473090

It sure isn't going to pass now, maybe when it was close to it's ATH

[Biodom]

A thought occured: M. Saylor is a giant death_wish...sorry, pal.
wtf did he (M.S) got so much on margin?
Should have just bought in cash+ a little (or none) on margin.
Now, obviously WS 'wants' to liquidate his position as they always do with all margins.

There must be a player or players behind this and it all point to one in particular...
..Who was the person who said that bitcoin cannot do transactions recently?
Where did celsius funds go?
Make your own conclusions.

[Copetech]

Normally the poll option with the least votes gets it right.

I'm hoping that's how it works for this poll, above $21k.

Where is the bottom?

...

$21,001-$22,000    1 (3.1%)

That was me... and apparently I was wroooooooong! (again)