Confirmed that he is
not a betting man. He declares
absolute certainty, he insults me—then he doesn’t put his money where his mouth is. He is a chicken.
goldkingcoiner = 🐔#confirmed.
Even if we could arrive at 10 to 1 odds, I would think that your budget might really ONLY be able to allow you around .001 at most.. perhaps?.
If I know that I am telling the truth, then I know that my probability of winning is 1. Not 0.999999, but exactly 1—at least, as for the bet in itself.
I myself am
rarely a betting man. (Life is usually too messy to quantify the probabilities.) But when I bet, I am a Kelly bettor; accordingly, I will not bet the whole pot unless my probability of winning is exactly 1. This is a unusual opportunity for me to go all-in—if possible, more than all-in!
As a practical matter, I have counterparty risk. Paying my own side of the bet into escrow will be
extremely burdensome to me, as mentioned below. I cannot undertake that burden, unless I know that I will be paid my winnings; and I cannot,
cannot afford to lose the money from my side of the bet. I would be reasonably picky about choosing an escrow, but I do think that this forum has some high-rep neutral parties upon whom I can rely.
and by the way.. even though goldkingcoiner does seem to like betting.. part of the reason that goldkingcoiner likely has a decent amount of BTC would be that he is likely somewhat measured in the ways that he bets.. we have already seen quite a bit of that from his historical forum participation..
He said that he was “more than sure”—quote-unquote. He did not say, “high probability”: He declared
absolute certainty. Thus, he should apply to himself the same argument that I applied to myself above.
When I am “more than sure” of something, I go all-in! The only reason why I do not offer to bet more than 0.1 BTC is that my resources are now so low, I would risk being unable to gather the money for escrow—
unable, in a “can’t squeeze blood from a stone” sense. If I had more money, then I would bet much more. If goldkingcoiner is so sure as he says, then he should bet accordingly—
unless his word means nothing, because he is a sleazy cheap-talking rat-bastard with not the least whit of personal honour.(Life advice for my adoring fans: It is rarely a good idea to declare absolute certainty about anything.
Usually, it is imprudent in the extreme—even stupider than buying BTC on margin! I
almost never declare absolute certainty.)
No one is going to bet you when you are getting so excited about the issue and even seeming to unilaterally impose the betting terms, even though some of those terms are not unreasonable.. but some of them are a bit much (and seemingly emotionally laden, too).. but still format wise.. it seems reasonable to outline some of the terms if the other party might be amenable to entering into such a bet..
That’s fair enough of you.
A bet is a contract, and I tend to see such things in quasi-legal terms. I made an offer. If it is not taken as-is, a counter-offer may be made. Some terms are NOT open to negotiation, such as my absolute requirement of handling this through escrow; I will incur severe financial risks and losses (essentially, self-liquidation of multiple assets in ridiculously unfavourable market conditions) to scrape together 0.1 BTC, so I
cannot take any risk that goldkingcoiner may renege. Other terms, I offered as unfavourable to myself—such as a short deadline for at least
prima facie evidence to appear “somehow”, lest I immediately lose the bet by default.
As for “emotionally laden” terms, please review goldkingcoiner’s insults to me—and see below. It is not so much a matter of my reacting emotionally, but rather, my coolly egging him on and humiliating him in public. My big ego is my strength—his empty conceit is his downfall.
Another thing is that goldkingcoiner said that he did not even want to bet you, and sure there could be a way of making the terms bettable.. but 10/1 odds? I am having my doubts if those are fair reflections of the level of confidence being expressed, so far.. but sure, if you can get someone to proclaim something to be nearly certain about some facts, then yeah.. I suppose 10 to 1 odds is more than reasonable .. since it is 90% rather than 100%.
The odds are subject to negotiation. I think that by being too honest, Wilhelm inadvertently spoiled my chances of getting 10x here.
goldkingcoiner said that he was “more than sure”. I myself am sure of my position. How can fair odds be decided, when both sides declare
absolute certainty?Well, those are irreconcilable subjective positions. Let us examine the matter objectively. This is how I would see it as a fair-minded external observer—if I did not know myself at all, and if I did not know whatever I know about Dabs’ past PMs:
A new-ish Jr. Member account made a serious accusation against a highly-trusted Legendary. Objectively—just statistically, from experience on this forum—I think that for each 1 instance where such an accusation is true, there are many more than 10 false accusations. Well, I was not about to demand 100x or 1000x odds from goldkingcoiner; after all, I do want him to take the bet!
That makes it objectively reasonable for me to offer a bet at >= 10x. Or at least, it
did before Wilhelm gave his evidence. I did not expect that.
Hmmm... This is becoming complicated. Do any pro bookmakers (or insurance actuaries) wish to opine on how properly to calculate the odds that I am telling the truth?
By the way, I was considering not saying anything.. but from the whole escalation angle ... holy moley..... You might even make a street fighter start to feel uncomfortable.. and I would hope that our atmosphere here need not be that rough and tumble even though we might want to verbally throw down on some of the various issues from time to time... but still..
Jay, you big meanie, did I even shock
you? 
Although I am generally a kind and caring person, I have a hard and ruthless side. They who cross me do so at their own peril.
goldkingcoiner said
fighting words. (And he should not try deleting any of them; I have many archival snapshots.) He did not reasonably seek evidence, or question my word: He lashed out and smeared as a liar. He spat at me such spite and disrespect as I have only ever seen from a few trolls and other losers here.
I do not permit anyone to speak to me as he did.
I do not forgive—and
will not forgive; I am not some kind of a pussycat. He crossed me badly.
You have insulted me egregiously. You have said you are “more than sure”. How much of a coward are you?
Poll
