Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

How the fuck do you write so much ?

I don't know.  It just seems to happen to happen.

Not complaining as I post like a mofo but not with the precise writing that you try to do.

Fair enough.

I tend  to write like James Joyce just let it rip.

Stream of consciousness style.

Will have to keep that in mind for the next time that I am working towards critiquing something in your direction... .and maybe say:  "fuck that James Joyce bullshit" or whatever might be the critique.

I have a USA based theory of why the gov does these games with interest.

Surely you should be able to appreciate that we go beyond the USA in this thread and in this forum - even though we are talking about the USD as the other side of the trading pair listed in OP.

I base it on the Long Island railroad retirement system.

see below:

My step dad is 90 years old.
He worked for the Long Island Railroad from the age of 22  to 52

he has been in retirement for 38 years. 8 years longer than he worked.

his son my stepbrother is 60
he got a job in 1984 or 1985 with the long Island railroad he was 22 or 23.

He retired at 55 he is on pension for 7 years.

his son is 25 he is working at the Long Island railroad for 3 years.

The model above does not work cannot work if every family in the USA was setup the way they are it all falls apart.

Why would you want to lock yourself into some model that has been undergoing all kind of changes over several generations, and even the design of work evolved within previous work/employee/retirement plan systems.

Some of those kinds of guaranteed pension jobs still exist - but they are so fucking rare that it makes little sense to base your thinking on those kinds of systems, or even proclamations that certain kinds of jobs are disappearing and blah blah blah. 

There are a lot of kinds of industries that exist, and there are various kinds of changes in world dynamics too - in terms of how WWI and WWII had played out that put the USA into a kind of advantaged position that is undergoing changes, and sure there might be some possibilities that the USD might be able to hang onto dominance in one or two more 12 year cycles?  and even the cycles are changing and the dynamics from within trying to keep all of the balls in the air could come crashing down... or maybe not any time soon.. but still consider ways to be prepared for various kinds of balls-crashing-down scenarios.

So the feds play pendulum with war ,interest rates ,unemployment . In an effort to keep it all from imploding.

Now I would argue it has not fully imploded since 1929-1939 which they fixed with WWII.

I am hoping they avoid the next full implosion better than they did back then.

We will have a much better idea by 2024 Nov just how fucked the USA will be.

In a general way, I cannot disagree with any of that.. except that I still believe that when we get into specifics and your various ways of trying to prognosticate short term matters
 - especially how it pertains to my lil precious, you come to all kinds of weird and inaccurate conclusions, and still wondering why the fuck does any presidential election matter as much as you are suggestion of how much importance you seem to be putting within a stupid-ass timeline involving USA presidential politics? Maybe you should flesh out your hypothesis a bit - even though it is likely to just lead to more nonsense and even contribute towards my throwing up my Christmas meal from yesterday because you will be trying to outline specifics that you likely currently believe but you are just NOT currently stating.

[philipma1957]

[edited out]

How the fuck do you write so much ?

I don't know.  It just seems to happen to happen.

Not complaining as I post like a mofo but not with the precise writing that you try to do.

Fair enough.

I tend  to write like James Joyce just let it rip.

Stream of consciousness style.

Will have to keep that in mind for the next time that I am working towards critiquing something in your direction... .and maybe say:  "fuck that James Joyce bullshit" or whatever might be the critique.

I have a USA based theory of why the gov does these games with interest.

Surely you should be able to appreciate that we go beyond the USA in this thread and in this forum - even though we are talking about the USD as the other side of the trading pair listed in OP.

I base it on the Long Island railroad retirement system.

see below:

My step dad is 90 years old.
He worked for the Long Island Railroad from the age of 22  to 52

he has been in retirement for 38 years. 8 years longer than he worked.

his son my stepbrother is 60
he got a job in 1984 or 1985 with the long Island railroad he was 22 or 23.

He retired at 55 he is on pension for 7 years.

his son is 25 he is working at the Long Island railroad for 3 years.

The model above does not work cannot work if every family in the USA was setup the way they are it all falls apart.

Why would you want to lock yourself into some model that has been undergoing all kind of changes over several generations, and even the design of work evolved within previous work/employee/retirement plan systems.

Some of those kinds of guaranteed pension jobs still exist - but they are so fucking rare that it makes little sense to base your thinking on those kinds of systems, or even proclamations that certain kinds of jobs are disappearing and blah blah blah. 

There are a lot of kinds of industries that exist, and there are various kinds of changes in world dynamics too - in terms of how WWI and WWII had played out that put the USA into a kind of advantaged position that is undergoing changes, and sure there might be some possibilities that the USD might be able to hang onto dominance in one or two more 12 year cycles?  and even the cycles are changing and the dynamics from within trying to keep all of the balls in the air could come crashing down... or maybe not any time soon.. but still consider ways to be prepared for various kinds of balls-crashing-down scenarios.

So the feds play pendulum with war ,interest rates ,unemployment . In an effort to keep it all from imploding.

Now I would argue it has not fully imploded since 1929-1939 which they fixed with WWII.

I am hoping they avoid the next full implosion better than they did back then.

We will have a much better idea by 2024 Nov just how fucked the USA will be.

In a general way, I cannot disagree with any of that.. except that I still believe that when we get into specifics and your various ways of trying to prognosticate short term matters
 - especially how it pertains to my lil precious, you come to all kinds of weird and inaccurate conclusions, and still wondering why the fuck does any presidential election matter as much as you are suggestion of how much importance you seem to be putting within a stupid-ass timeline involving USA presidential politics? Maybe you should flesh out your hypothesis a bit - even though it is likely to just lead to more nonsense and even contribute towards my throwing up my Christmas meal from yesterday because you will be trying to outline specifics that you likely currently believe but you are just NOT currently stating.

The Long Island railroad model is only an illustration of the issue.

how bout this.

  USA go to school in 1975 lots of good cheap colleges get out at 21-22 zero debt get a job blank blank blank..

USA go to school in 1996 not as many good cheap colleges get out at 23-24 as you need a masters to compete with the ones that graduated in 1975 and you have a small loan maybe 25k


USA go to school in 2017 almost any college cost at least 60k more like 200k get out at 23-24 you better have a masters to compete with the ones that graduated in 1975 and 1996 and you have a larger loan over 100k.


that is the education twist on the Long Island Railroad example I gave.


As to why I use USA simple USA is still the fiat standard (how long does it have?)

and USA so far was able to heavily fuck the world market by raising % rates for the dollar.

Which is many countries are trying to do BTC and which is why the dems let SBF shit all over (JJG you will love this) BTC using FTX and all the shitcoins (other than LTC + Doge).

Does this clarify it a bit more.


Please remember it is always or almost always just written in stream of consciousness.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Just received below SMS... only if it was BTC...


It's a trap!!!

To me, it looks like you are richie.   

<snip>..sorry it was becoming too long to quote

[edited out]

In addition: my IRAs and bitcoin would, hopefully, provide the bulk of the future cash flows.

Sure there is going to be some variance in the timeline on a lot of these matters, and for sure, the longer that any of us had contributed into a system, then we might have become reliant upon being able to get some income stream from various work-related retirement systems that we had invested into.

Attacks on the pension systems had surely gone into higher modes since the 80s, and yes it seems that there was borrowing against and mal-investment in regards to social security systems too - since those systems should have been self-sustaining, except that the government was allowed to borrow against that particular system - and yeah of course other health and welfare benefits have been juggled in a variety of ways too... to contribute towards difficulties in keeping them solvent.  

So, yes some of those systems have decent chances of imploding..

Of course, many of us in bitcoin have considered that bitcoin is a way to supplement or to replace some of the other directions that we might have otherwise been able to receive cashflow after we are no longer ready, willing and/or able to work.

Some of us may have been contributing more heavily into bitcoin, and it may have not even been for reasons of believing that we were going to need bitcoin to supplement our status quo cashflow areas, but then maybe in more recent times, including since March 2020, it has become more apparent (to some folks) that various aspects of status quo and traditional systems are imploding faster and more severely than we thought to be likely or possible.

I am not sure if 20 BTC is going to be enough to supplement the cashflow of any person, even though it seems that something like 100 BTC right now would be enough - yet of course, devil is in the details in regards to how much we need and when we need it..

I guess when I mentioned 100 BTC being enough, it is building on Phillipma's assertion from a month ago or so that 100BTC would not be enough for a 50-year old right now, and saying dumb shit about that 50-year old needing to sell some of his BTC blah blah blah.. which just seemed bonkers to me... actually to me it seems that around 82 BTC would be more than enough to be in entry-level fuck you status as long as you are able to wait until the BTC price returns above $24.4k - assuming that at some point in the coming 3-12 months or so that BTC prices will return above the 200-week moving average that is currently at $24.4k.

Anyway, of course, money management.. and of course no guarantees.. and surely by the time we start to get into our 50s or later, then it would seem that many of us shoudl have already created and maintained some investment portfolio that goes beyond merely having BTC and perhaps taking our other income sources, whether social security, pension, 401ks and/or other sources like that with a grain of salt... but still the various uncertain sources of income likely have greater than zero present value.. unless you really are assigning high values to Armagaeddon scenarios.

[philipma1957]

Just received below SMS... only if it was BTC...


It's a trap!!!

To me, it looks like you are richie.   

<snip>..sorry it was becoming too long to quote

[edited out]

In addition: my IRAs and bitcoin would, hopefully, provide the bulk of the future cash flows.

Sure there is going to be some variance in the timeline on a lot of these matters, and for sure, the longer that any of us had contributed into a system, then we might have become reliant upon being able to get some income stream from various work-related retirement systems that we had invested into.

Attacks on the pension systems had surely gone into higher modes since the 80s, and yes it seems that there was borrowing against and mal-investment in regards to social security systems too - since those systems should have been self-sustaining, except that the government was allowed to borrow against that particular system - and yeah of course other health and welfare benefits have been juggled in a variety of ways too... to contribute towards difficulties in keeping them solvent.  

So, yes some of those systems have decent chances of imploding..

Of course, many of us in bitcoin have considered that bitcoin is a way to supplement or to replace some of the other directions that we might have otherwise been able to receive cashflow after we are no longer ready, willing and/or able to work.

Some of us may have been contributing more heavily into bitcoin, and it may have not even been for reasons of believing that we were going to need bitcoin to supplement our status quo cashflow areas, but then maybe in more recent times, including since March 2020, it has become more apparent (to some folks) that various aspects of status quo and traditional systems are imploding faster and more severely than we thought to be likely or possible.

I am not sure if 20 BTC is going to be enough to supplement the cashflow of any person, even though it seems that something like 100 BTC right now would be enough - yet of course, devil is in the details in regards to how much we need and when we need it..

I guess when I mentioned 100 BTC being enough, it is building on Phillipma's assertion from a month ago or so that 100BTC would not be enough for a 50-year old right now, and saying dumb shit about that 50-year old needing to sell some of his BTC blah blah blah.. which just seemed bonkers to me... actually to me it seems that around 82 BTC would be more than enough to be in entry-level fuck you status as long as you are able to wait until the BTC price returns above $24.4k - assuming that at some point in the coming 3-12 months or so that BTC prices will return above the 200-week moving average that is currently at $24.4k.

Anyway, of course, money management.. and of course no guarantees.. and surely by the time we start to get into our 50s or later, then it would seem that many of us shoudl have already created and maintained some investment portfolio that goes beyond merely having BTC and perhaps taking our other income sources, whether social security, pension, 401ks and/or other sources like that with a grain of salt... but still the various uncertain sources of income likely have greater than zero present value.. unless you really are assigning high values to Armagaeddon scenarios.

82x16800= 1,377,600 while it may be a nice chunk of change it is not entry level fuck you status.

[Torque]

WELP, they destroyed The Witcher, don't even try to watch it unless you want to puke.

Even though I know it's Henry Cavill's last season on it, I'm not even about to watch that hot mess, or ever again. Nor any of the "spin offs".

Season 2 was bad enough.

It's about sending a message. Full boycott.

Down with the bullshit agenda that Hollywoke is pushing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Tipeform$]

Most common response I’ve been hearing wrt to #BitcoinBTC  is that people feel they “missed it.” This couldn’t be further from the truth.



TWITTER

If you look at the Halving Halbin chart here, Bitcoin will start to rise from the beginning of 2024.  And in 2023, the price of Bitcoin will remain in the tumbling state.

And there is enough time in 2023 to hold and it would be best to start holding from here in 2022 at the latest.  Because now is the perfect time to hold Bitcoin.

Ho ho Hold ✅✅✅..

[Tipeform$]

Bitcoin has been stuck between $16,000-$17,000 for one week.




Please quote my post...

[xhomerx10]

Most common response I’ve been hearing wrt to #BitcoinBTC  is that people feel they “missed it.” This couldn’t be further from the truth.



TWITTER

If you look at the Halbin chart here, Bitcoin will start to rise from the beginning of 2024.  And in 2023, the price of Bitcoin will remain in the tumbling state.

And there is enough time in 2023 to hold and it would be best to start holding from here in 2022 at the latest.  Because now is the perfect time to hold Bitcoin.

Ho ho Hold ✅✅✅..

 Ah, the good ole Halbin chart.  Where would be be without it?  If I had any merits I would have given all of them all to you but only if you promised not to post any more investment advice.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Do not - I repeat - do not ever merit me, or I will rip you a new one.

Lookie uie pooie   

Merit begging through reverse psychology.






Merit begging



Merit begging




Merit begging 






You Fuck.

Merits

You obviously didn't understand Merits. You claim they are worthless, on the other hand you give them so much (negative) attention, which shows how important they are to you.
Explain.

Exactly!!!  That's what I had b trying to say.

Be patient, bro, don't vent your anger here.

What anger? Trust me, you don’t want to see me angry.

What are you going to do?  Throw your cookies & milk on the floor?

Go on...

Do it.

Do it.

Oh JJ, WTF is going on with that hashrate, it can’t be front-running something-something can it?

I can ONLY do so much to attempt to help you to help ur lil selfie.

Hint, Hint:   Remember you are looking at shadows on the cave wall, try to find and then move closer to the entrance of the cave, then at least you will start to get closer to the light.   Also, it may be good if you can try to move close enough to the entrance in order that you are able to actually see outside.

Yes.  I know.  Baby steps.

I am not going to expect you to be ready, willing and/or able to go straight outside.

But, if you would at least move towards the entrance, you will be making progress in contrast to where you seem to be, currently.

[smartcomet]

off topic

i write some thoughts about The Next-Generation Decentralized Social Media

Introduction
The Next-Generation Decentralized Social Media is a decentralized, trustless, uncensored network.

Every user sets a node in local PC, mobile phone, or renting a cloud server for fast connection. There are several Directory Servers in the network which store all users’ public information: IP/domain, name, site etc . A user can follow another user by pull the latter’s IP/Domain from the Directory Server to node.

Every user has a private key and public key pair, the latter is users account number. When a user sends a tweet to the network(actually to followers), must signs it first. One of followers may re-tweet, comment or like the tweet. The user can delete the tweet too, after that a deletion tweet will send to the followers, and quotation of the tweet will be deleted from followers’ node.

nostr is coming

https://www.btctimes.com/news/what-is-nostr-and-how-do-i-use-it

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

WELP, they destroyed The Witcher, don't even try to watch it unless you want to puke.

Even though I know it's Henry Cavill's last season on it, I'm not even about to watch that hot mess, or ever again. Nor any of the "spin offs".

Season 2 was bad enough.

It's about sending a message. Full boycott.

Down with the bullshit agenda that Hollywoke is pushing.

good to read this as I quit after season 1.

[philipma1957]

Bitcoin has been stuck between $16,000-$17,000 for one week.




Please quote my post...

done

[JayJuanGee]

Season's Greetings to all WOers!

We may be a little lower that many of us had predicted for this time of year ($17k vs. $100k+), but a true WOer knows that GTCTTWW.

Be well, love and be loved, enjoy yourselves, and... HoDL!

Can't remember what it means.

Brain no doesn't work that great at all times.


 

could the hashrate drop have to do with Texas miner shut down to support the power grid due to cold weather?

Could be, could be, dear Watson.
Just don’t forget that they are losing money[?] in the process. It’s a very thin line between miners shutting down, difficulty re-adjusting, and mining again with a smaller difficulty.

I recall that the largest bitcoin miner (Core Scientific) had filed for bankruptcy.

But that's probably not related.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

Season's Greetings to all WOers!

We may be a little lower that many of us had predicted for this time of year ($17k vs. $100k+), but a true WOer knows that GTCTTWW.

Be well, love and be loved, enjoy yourselves, and... HoDL!

Can't remember what it means.

Brain no doesn't work that great at all times.


 

 I'm pretty sure it's an acronym for Gay-Themed Christmas Tradition Titillates Wall Watchers

 I'm sure if you thought about it a little longer though it would come to you... since it's a good thing and you will have waited for it to come to you.