Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shahzadafzal]

However since shahzadafzal didn't answer my proposal for a bet yet, I was hesitant to poke the next guy with a bet, as I'm by no means a betting person and I didn't want to come off as one... 

That was a bet? I mean that was just a sarcastic smiley.. look..

Regardless of who you support, I think we can all agree (except for the odd alpaca) that BTC should have made a new ATH by the latter.

First Quarter of 2023

wanna bet some BTC ? 

I mean I could take it like you meant... it will be ATH even before first quarter of 2023.

Btw since BitcoinBunny mentioned alpaca aka llama, I was poking this singing llama with that comment

No the smiley was meant as a nice smiley...  like a nice invitation 


For clarification: I'm a hardcore hodler and I would love to see an ATH soon. It would give me so much joy that I would happily part with some of my BTC when I lose this bet.

As I understand it you mean before end of 1st quarter 2023 (31st March 2023) we will see another ATH on Bitstamp? (last ATH was exactly at 69,000 USD)

I would say no, and bet against it.  However, I love my BTC and I'm no gambler so I wouldn't bet much. Just some "change" (maybe up to 0.1 BTC or so) in a 1 : 1 bet.

I'm also very happy without betting, so please feel free to join or not.

As per JJG calculations I’m still at my accumulation stage… so I'm not opening my BTC wallet unless it’s for WO $100k Yacht party or for my pen-is enlargement surgery.

Btw I’m against betting or gambling.

Ok. No problem. Thanks for your consideration!


Some thoughts however:

If you are in accumulation phase and you are sure of an ATH in 1st qtr. 2023 (which I myself really hope for), it certainly would be a nice chance to get more BTC for free, just by putting your BTC where your mouth is.

Even if you are against betting, 0.1BTC, now 1,700$ will be around 7,000$ at the next ATH. And having 7k$ more BTC in 3 months should actually be a nice motivation to make an exception from your rule.

Don't get me wrong... as I said I don't like betting either, but it wouldn't make much sense not to do it, when I could have a relatively certain 0.1BTC more in my wallet. 
...in addition, if you win, you get at least a 7k$ value, whereas when I win, I get less than that $ value maybe even under the initial value of 1,700$...

So I have the feeling that I'm just more confident winning (increasing my stash) than you are...


But anyways. Thanks again, and have some nice last days of '22.


btw, I guess you must have been the first guy choosing 2023 for the new ATH in the poll (now it's already 3)

Well regarding the poll I voted for 2024.

But for your math and financial skills 10/10.

First of all, like I said I'm against betting so I'm not betting either for the first quarter of 2023 nor end of 2024. Please don't take me wrong.

Second, frankly speaking we both know there's almost no chance of breaking ATH in 2023 let alone the first quarter of 2023. Yeah I want BTC to reach ATH sooner but current market reality and looming financial crisis won't let it happen any soon. 2023 will be the cooling period for BTC and we might reach ATH mid or late 2024.

[1714675533]

1714675533

[1714675533]

1714675533

[1714675533]

1714675533

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

At least you now got a hint that something is going on regarding miner shutdown compensation..

Not really.

I'd say "news sources" mentioning it, is at least a hint that there might be something to it...  but I can agree to disagree

BTC has various use cases. That includes using the BTC network as a balancing tool for the energy grid.
If the community (government) decides to pay you on top of the mining rewards, so they can have enough energy in emergency situations, why not.

Because Bitcoin mining is about harnessing redundant [or not] energy, mainly from renewable sources whilst using the power grid as little as possible.

You are either connected to the energy grid together with other consumers or not. Having the power source solely running for Bitcoin is a rather rare case.

BTC has various use cases. That includes using the BTC network as a balancing tool for the energy grid.
If the community (government) decides to pay you on top of the mining rewards, so they can have enough energy in emergency situations, why not.

I will also stress again, that I’m in no way comfortable with any “hand outs”, subsidising the Bitcoin network, especially coming from Bitcoin’s worst enemy - the government(s).

I guess you are always free to refuse any reward from your community.

The Bitcoin network though (miners and users) don't care what you are comfortable with.

These certain miners have the choice to be part of a collapsing grid or turn off and get paid.
Being a business the choice is clear. Especially when taking into account that private local residents should come first when energy gets restricted.

As a miner you theoretically have the choice to refuse any compensation, or move your business to a place with a power source that you don't have to share with other consumers. And I'm with you that the latter might be the best solution, but life (or business) isn't always a bowl of cherries.

[eXPHorizon]

Man Gachapin everytime i see your name it makes me grin for some reason it is such a funny name to pronounce  

this is what A.I thinks Gachapin is ..





And here is JayJuanGee wahahahhah

[Biodom]

I typically think that bitboy is a bit obnoxious, pushing s-tcoins, yada, yada, but here is a pretty good summation of, basically, three possibilities for bitcoin in 2023 and going forward:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN1aowWFA2U

I happen to agree with a conventional "cycle" scenario as being the most likely.
We shall see.

[shahzadafzal]

Glad I didn't buy any Tesla shares. Fuck sake. It's in a total death spiral now.

 

Just look how smooth is BTC graph!!!

Bitcoin is the name of safe and stable investment!!

	Tesla	Bitcoin

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

I typically think that bitboy is a bit obnoxious, pushing s-tcoins, yada, yada, but here is a pretty good summation of, basically, three possibilities for bitcoin in 2023 and going forward:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN1aowWFA2U

I happens to agree with a conventional "cycle" scenario as being the most likely.
We shall see.

without actually watching the video (don't wanna contribute by giving him a view)  ....let me guess... 3 possibilities.... is it up, down, and sideways ??

[Gachapin]

Glad I didn't buy any Tesla shares. Fuck sake. It's in a total death spiral now.

 

starts to look like a shitcoin chart

[Biodom]

I typically think that bitboy is a bit obnoxious, pushing s-tcoins, yada, yada, but here is a pretty good summation of, basically, three possibilities for bitcoin in 2023 and going forward:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN1aowWFA2U

I happen to agree with a conventional "cycle" scenario as being the most likely.
We shall see.

without actually watching the video (don't wanna contribute by giving him a view)  ....let me guess... 3 possibilities.... is it up, down, and sideways ??

nope

[eXPHorizon]

The Rule of 3 is deeply inbeded into the creation of Life. Once you understand it and cherish it... you have a deeper view of reality and how life came to be.. math just does not cut it anymore


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dvi6n89JWUY


 Lucy (3/10) Movie CLIP - Learning's a Painful Process (2014) HD

i do remember my bones growing... it hurts like hell... and the sound too, it is deeply scary and painful.. when you do not understand yet how this is working.. how it used to wake me up during the night and the sharp pain felt... then the sound...

did you know that when you reach Puberty your growth rate is accelerated 3x ?

[Biodom]

Glad I didn't buy any Tesla shares. Fuck sake. It's in a total death spiral now.

 

starts to looks like a shitcoin chart

META, NFLX and TSLA all did about 75% drop from the highs.
Considering that two of those had the market cap more than a tril, it is quite astonishing.
The question is, what they are going to do going forward?
People don't want to look back too much, but about 50-60 years ago (I wasn't investing back then, just read books about it more recently), there were nifty fifty (50 large caps in US) in the 60ies and 70ies.
They were as "untouchable" as the FAANG stocks were before.
Those nifty fity were up even when others were down.
Finally, the 1973-1974 bear market dropped them hard (75% or more)-and most never recovered their prior outperformance (Walmart was the exception).
The point is that it is unlikely that most of the top techs would outperform from the middle of this decade going forward.
Both AAPL and MSFT were founded in the mid-late seventies...we shall find new stonks like this at or after 2025-2026 (apart from btc, which should be the center of the portfolio).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

I typically think that bitboy is a bit obnoxious, pushing s-tcoins, yada, yada, but here is a pretty good summation of, basically, three possibilities for bitcoin in 2023 and going forward:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN1aowWFA2U

I happen to agree with a conventional "cycle" scenario as being the most likely.
We shall see.

without actually watching the video (don't wanna contribute by giving him a view)  ....let me guess... 3 possibilities.... is it up, down, and sideways ??

nope

damn.... you are teasing me

[Gachapin]

Glad I didn't buy any Tesla shares. Fuck sake. It's in a total death spiral now.

 

starts to looks like a shitcoin chart

META, NFLX and TSLA all did about 75% drop from the highs.
Considering that two of those had the market cap more than a tril, it is quite astonishing.
The question is, what they are going to do going forward?
People don't want to look back too much, but about 50-60 years ago (I wasn't investing back then, just read books about it more recently), there were nifty fifty (50 large caps in US) in the 60ies and 70ies.
They were as "untouchable" as the FAANG stocks were before.
Those nifty fity were up even when others were down.
Finally, the 1973-1974 bear market dropped them hard (75% or more)-and most never recovered their prior outperformance (Walmart was the exception).
The point is that it is unlikely that most of the top techs would outperform from the middle of this decade going forward.
Both AAPL and MSFT were founded in the mid-late seventies...we shall find new stonks like this at or after 2025-2026 (apart from btc, which should be the center of the portfolio).

sounds likely...

compared to these stocks BTC hasn't performed so bad in the down trend this year...  I hope that doesn't mean we are going to fall further

[Shaha98]

Glad I didn't buy any Tesla shares. Fuck sake. It's in a total death spiral now.

 

starts to looks like a shitcoin chart

META, NFLX and TSLA all did about 75% drop from the highs.
Considering that two of those had the market cap more than a tril, it is quite astonishing.
The question is, what they are going to do going forward?
People don't want to look back too much, but about 50-60 years ago (I wasn't investing back then, just read books about it more recently), there were nifty fifty (50 large caps in US) in the 60ies and 70ies.
They were as "untouchable" as the FAANG stocks were before.
Those nifty fity were up even when others were down.
Finally, the 1973-1974 bear market dropped them hard (75% or more)-and most never recovered their prior outperformance (Walmart was the exception).
The point is that it is unlikely that most of the top techs would outperform from the middle of this decade going forward.
Both AAPL and MSFT were founded in the mid-late seventies...we shall find new stonks like this at or after 2025-2026 (apart from btc, which should be the center of the portfolio).

sounds likely...

compared to these stocks BTC hasn't performed so bad in the down trend this year...  I hope that doesn't mean we are going to fall further

In reality, patience does not come anymore.  The wealth I invested in the past has now completely shrunk.  He says how to be patient.

[Biodom]

Glad I didn't buy any Tesla shares. Fuck sake. It's in a total death spiral now.

 

America likes to build someone up and then tear them down....and some years later (if they are still around)...rebuild them again.
So many examples.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

Crypto Confidence Soars After CEO Defrauds Customers Just Like Real Bank



https://www.theonion.com/crypto-confidence-soars-after-ceo-defrauds-customers-ju-1849773647