if we went by last cycle's performance and its ratios, price would hit 45k by June and after that stay between 45k and 25k for another 16 months..
I did the calculation
based on % retrace and it's more like $50K/$52K with a general target of $48.5K, for now at least (based on 2023 low to ATH)
Ignoring the % retrace another 4.4x move from the lows (like in 2019) would actually be more like $69K.
Hence I prefer the calculation of retracing around 62% from ATH, rather than 100%.
Sorry I was a bit inaccurate with my numbers, when writing 25k and 45k, because of their psychological impact.
What I did (approximately):
last cycle highest retrace, to 69% of the ATH in June 2019 (approx. 13.8k) --> corresponds with 47.6k this cycle
then 16 months price-wise between that and 1/3 of the ATH (approx. 6.3k) --> corresponds with 47.6k and 22.8k this cycle
(I left out the black swan covid crash)
So 25k-45k by my rule of thumb...
As someone said before, I also don't think it makes much sense to be too exact when comparing the cycles. Especially in Bitcoin, which is a very special animal
But thanks for your work. I appreciate it every time!
and.. I can certainly live with 50k