Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OldGeek]

...snip...
I don't think that opening accounts on exchanges outside China would be easy for a typical Chinese small businessman.  Doing that sort of thing would require familiarity with the bitcoin technology and markets, not likely for such people.
...snip again...

I wonder, then, how arb is supposed to be working for the Chinese exchanges?

There should not be many traders doing arbitrage; it does not seem to be a game for amateurs.  Arbitragers could be people with a commercial foot on each side of the border, e.g. import-export firms; or partnerships between Chinese and non-Chinese traders.

The scenario I was considering is when neither A nor B are regular bitcoin traders, just (say) a businessman who wants to bribe a government official in another town, and learns that there is a relatively safe way to do it using bitcoin.

Yes.  I edited my question.  Thanks.

[chessnut]

Huixa bans btc

http://www.hxb.com.cn/chinese/callcenter/show.jsp?cid2=691118&id=13986536615280489

What is your source for news?

Crazy that they also banned withdrawal channel!

withdrawals of funds, purchase and sale of recharge codes related transactions and other activities not through my bank account funds transfer related transactions. Once found, the bank is entitled to take account transactions related to the suspension, cancellation related accounts and other measures.

they banned withdrawals without notice? funny that!
the easiest way to take funds out is with BTC now.

[y3804]

It's the same message used by Alipay and China Merchants bank

[keithers]

LTC/BTC ratio is so low right now. I think it is such a good time to diversify and get over 40 LTC per BTC. I think this is good for short, medium, and long term. You will almost certainly be able to flip back to more BTC later

[N12]

LTC/BTC ratio is so low right now. I think it is such a good time to diversify and get over 40 LTC per BTC. I think this is good for short, medium, and long term. You will almost certainly be able to flip back to more BTC later

"Diversify" from an asset into another correlated asset, only it is more volatile and has additional risk of its own. Brilliant!

[y3804]

According to reports, PBOC requires commercial banks and third-party payment agencies to convey to the public that it no longer provides financial services to any Bitcoin transaction before May 10th "Bitcoin Beijing International Summit".

The deadline is real guys

[ErisDiscordia]

Poker players raise if they have 52/48 but not if it is 48/52.

Actually we raise if actual equity + fold equity (the chance that the other person folds) are >50. We call if our equity is high enough compared to what we are required to call/what is in the pot. It is OK to call a 10$ bet to win a 100$ pot if we only have a 15% chance to win

[manfred]

Huixa bans btc

http://www.hxb.com.cn/chinese/callcenter/show.jsp?cid2=691118&id=13986536615280489

Just proves bitcoin works and it does what it is meant to do.

[Erdogan]

According to reports, PBOC requires commercial banks and third-party payment agencies to convey to the public that it no longer provides financial services to any Bitcoin transaction before May 10th "Bitcoin Beijing International Summit".

The deadline is real guys

Sounds like publicity to me.

[xulescu]

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

I had estimated that probability for 435 holding should be 10% in general public's eyes, but I thought it was 20%. So I would have taken 7:1 odds for me, and lost almost straight away.

Maybe you should refresh your prescription. Seems you suffer from an acute episode of 0 = 1.

[Asrael999]

According to reports, PBOC requires commercial banks and third-party payment agencies to convey to the public that it no longer provides financial services to any Bitcoin transaction before May 10th "Bitcoin Beijing International Summit".

The deadline is real guys

the problem is you see that I have now seen this statement so many times it has cause me to now enter the realm of "bothered" - as in not bothered for those not familiar with the works of Catherine Tate or generic British colloquialisms

[dreamspark]

According to reports, PBOC requires commercial banks and third-party payment agencies to convey to the public that it no longer provides financial services to any Bitcoin transaction before May 10th "Bitcoin Beijing International Summit".

The deadline is real guys

the problem is you see that I have now seen this statement so many times it has cause me to now enter the realm of "bothered"

I think a lot of people have the same feeling but while everyone else is bothered its hard to not be.

[windjc]

According to reports, PBOC requires commercial banks and third-party payment agencies to convey to the public that it no longer provides financial services to any Bitcoin transaction before May 10th "Bitcoin Beijing International Summit".

The deadline is real guys

Yeah, so now we get the interaction of 3 factors.

First factor - non-chinese traders using Houbi for the zero-fee trading. These traders will stay assuming Houbi stays open. If liquidity gets too low, they will probably move to another exchange.

Second factor - Chinese that want to keep their bitcoin. These will buy to transfer off exchange. Most of these probably have already bought, or will try to buy real low.

Third factor - Chinese that want to withdraw and exit the game before deadline. These will cause price to continue to drop until May 10th.

So, if you want to be a fool and believe, like Chessnut does, that these factors can only mean the price goes higher, buy now!

But, if you a rational human being, you'll realize that this is bearish news. 2100 will be retested and probably destroyed.

The market in China is still in denial.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dreamspark]

I dont know about denial but these crazy people don't have a clue what they want 

[lemonte]

According to reports, PBOC requires commercial banks and third-party payment agencies to convey to the public that it no longer provides financial services to any Bitcoin transaction before May 10th "Bitcoin Beijing International Summit".

The deadline is real guys

Now I'm really pissed off..
PBOC are clearly not content with ruining my week, now they are moving their "deadlines" to the weekend! What a horrible bunch.

[octaft]

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not.  

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

[windjc]

Nobody compelled me to compose memoirs, so they are there for a purpose. Perhaps I will tell, perhaps not.  

So you made a bold prediction - "won't go below 435!" Then you wanted 7 to 1 odds against it. LOL! Are you even listening to yourself?

I'm not trying to be hard on you and yes, I admit I called you out, only to try to get you to take the bet quickly. You don't like to take reasonable bets, only unreasonable ones, so I thought I might gode you into a reasonable one.

But you are making yourself look bad here, not me or anyone else.

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

Yeah, Chessnut is just angry at me and so butthurt he can't see straight.  He also shares a trait with Rpeitila in that he is NEVER EVER wrong. Right, 100% of the time. Both of them.

It's truly amazing.

[merkin51]

I've been regularly buying little bits here and there on the way down these last few months, but I'm going to stop and just HODL what I have now... sure I could sell up and wait, but I'm happy to sit with what I have on the off chance of a genuine reversal out of nowhere. At least stopping buying is some kind of protection against further loses, right?

Absolutely no one has a fucking clue what is going on now. The great Chinese masterplan is either boom or bust. I have to hold my hands up to them, they have the entire market at their mercy.

[el_rlee]

According to reports, PBOC requires commercial banks and third-party payment agencies to convey to the public that it no longer provides financial services to any Bitcoin transaction before May 10th "Bitcoin Beijing International Summit".

The deadline is real guys

Yeah, so now we get the interaction of 3 factors.

First factor - non-chinese traders using Houbi for the zero-fee trading. These traders will stay assuming Houbi stays open. If liquidity gets too low, they will probably move to another exchange.

Second factor - Chinese that want to keep their bitcoin. These will buy to transfer off exchange. Most of these probably have already bought, or will try to buy real low.

Third factor - Chinese that want to withdraw and exit the game before deadline. These will cause price to continue to drop until May 10th.

So, if you want to be a fool and believe, like Chessnut does, that these factors can only mean the price goes higher, buy now!

But, if you a rational human being, you'll realize that this is bearish news. 2100 will be retested and probably destroyed.

The market in China is still in denial.

Remember how long Gox took to die after BTC and fiat withdrawals were halted? This will not be over so soon.
Maybe we will even see the price skyrocketing if fiat withdrawals are halted as well and BTC is the only way out?