Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[octaft]

7:1 odds are a bargain, very reasonable indeed to even the slightest bear. you should have taken the bet.

He never offered him 7:1 odds, for one thing. He only mentioned that is what he would be willing to accept after the fact.

If you're talking shit that it's NEVER going to break 435 again, putting your money where your mouth is would be taking pretty much any bet for any odds that came your way, assuming you weren't bullshitting, which he obviously was. Not taking an even money bet on something you perceive to be a lock is ridiculous, so his mouth said "never below 435" but his money said "eh, like 20% chance of not under 435." See the difference?

Which part of the Call to Bet was difficult to understand?  

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

Perhaps you fit in the description in my Lamentation...  

EPILOGUE

It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it.

Have you noticed that not a single person with high standing has criticized me? It is the same trolls over and over, twisting simple and clear words, or teens with fingers hard-wired to bypass the brain.

But why would anybody offer you 7:1 if you run up to them screaming that your bet is a guaranteed winner? You didn't ask for 7:1, you asked for "significantly better than 1:1." Well, what does that mean? I would call 4:1 significantly better, but according to your own assumptions that you admitted to later (20%), that would have been a break-even bet for you.

If you wanted a real bet, you completely played it wrong. You could have come up all sheepish about your opinion, and probably gotten decent odds. Some arrogant bear might have given you as high as 10:1 if you had been smart about it. If, however, you just wanted to bullshit about to da moon and rock bottom, with no real bet, then you played it precisely right. I have no idea what your intention was, so I won't speculate, all I am saying is if you actually wanted a bet, you went about it very wrong.

As for the standing and trolls stuff, eh whatever, I take all that with a grain of salt. Human nature makes social standing a popularity contest. Of course nobody in high standing is going to disagree with you. To make an absolutely sweeping generalization without consideration for any individual it may include, most of them are permabulls, and even the bears in high standing have their "cold storage" that has been plummeting in value. You are saying things those people want to hear. Why would they criticize you?

I am much more strict with the term troll than most on this forum. I don't consider most posters on here to be trolls. I consider a number of "trolls" to simply be people saying things the people who call them trolls don't want to hear. People talking their book is about the heaviest trolling you'll usually see around here, barring the obvious "single digits incoming" or "100k in 3 months" nonsense.

EDIT: Oh and I honestly have no clue whatsoever what you mean by fitting the description in your lamentation.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I think that you are going much too far, and probably, I should NOT even be entertaining your post - b/c I have already have attempted to have genuine communications with you, without luck.  I even saw interaction between you and Rpietila, where he likely entertained you too much too - by giving you the benefit of the doubt concerning whether you were attempting to engage in a genuine or meaningful (non-troll conversation).

  People do dumb things, sometimes, and Rpietila is far from dumb - even though he has contradicted himself (at least regarding the bet issue) and rationalized his communications concerning the bet issue... but that does NOT make him dumb.. and also, he has made a lot of valuable contributions to the forum through his various postings over the years (I have NOT read all of them, but several and they are genuinely helpful in framing various issues and providing experiential perspective).

I was actually the one that gave him the benefit of the doubt, and I actually PMed him a serious and honest message, like he asked. And as predicted, he didn't respond. So, now I'm quite certain that there is no constructive communication possible with him. The only use he has is for entertainment purposes.

If you want to learn about his history, then learn about how he took an unprotected laptop to an sauna party, that got stolen together with the coins it held. In my book, it's either very stupid, or it's the work of an confidence man.
I don't know if you actually believe that he isn't dumb, or are you just trying to ass-kiss yourself a room at the "castle". And I don't actually care, you aren't the only one here who actually believes that he is smart. I have spoken my mind, and I think that he really is dumb.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

actually the argument was invalid, alongside this beautiful red herring you have presented to me. Risto is not 100% certain that bitcoin is going to be adopted by the entire world. you set up the argument as a strawman - or where do you get your facts?

He is not certain about that? Well, maybe you should ask him on what does he think about that.

[rpietila]

actually the argument was invalid, alongside this beautiful red herring you have presented to me. Risto is not 100% certain that bitcoin is going to be adopted by the entire world. you set up the argument as a strawman - or where do you get your facts?

He is not certain about that? Well, maybe you should ask him on what does he think about that.

He estimates that there is an insanely high 1% chance that Bitcoin will reach 1,000,000 dollars per BTC.

That is 10k$/BTC expected value from that scenario alone. And the others are not all zero either.

As people learn about this insanely profitable risky bet offered to them, they buy in, mostly very little, because losing does not hurt, but winning changes their life.

When enough people buy, the price rises. Now we are closer to 1,000,000 and the probability to reach it therefore goes up.

This allows more people to buy, because less risk.

In the end, when the recursion is totally played out, the probability to hit an insanely high valuation of $1 million (or higher) is something like 20%.

And when you see and understand the above, it makes you even more willing to buy even more NOW, increasing the price and ...

 

[EuroTrash]

Indeed, buying a castle is the best way to lose the money you just earned.

1. You need to have earned it first. Either out of luck (early bitcoiners of 4chan descent) or out of being able to recognize the potential of bitcoin ahead of others. Rpietila has indeed a large ego but he is a trader not a lucky bastard from 4chan. He deserves huge credit for having made smart and tough choices before me and you did, using his own brain.
2. Buying property and land is rarely a bad investment in the (decades-) long term. Bubbles aside, the world population is growing quadratically. There will always be a need for homes and farmland. Besides, Estonia has one of the fastest growing IT sector economies in the world. Buying property there is not a stupid choice to me. If things turn for the worse in bitcoinland, he can still turn the castle into a hotel resort for a different audience.

[chessnut]

What I like to call "check mate" 

but it's not certain! 

[p0peji]

Indeed, buying a castle is the best way to lose the money you just earned.

1. You need to have earned it first. Either out of luck (early bitcoiners of 4chan descent) or out of being able to recognize the potential of bitcoin ahead of others. Rpietila has indeed a large ego but he is a trader not a lucky bastard from 4chan. He deserves huge credit for having made smart and tough choices before me and you did, using his own brain.
2. Buying property and land is rarely a bad investment in the (decades-) long term. Bubbles aside, the world population is growing quadratically. There will always be a need for homes and farmland. Besides, Estonia has one of the fastest growing IT sector economies in the world. Buying property there is not a stupid choice to me. If things turn for the worse in bitcoinland, he can still turn the castle into a hotel resort for a different audience.

Look into the maintenance costs of a castle and you will see that it is a bodomless pit. Not that I dont respect the ability to pick bitcoin as an investment early on.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

actually the argument was invalid, alongside this beautiful red herring you have presented to me. Risto is not 100% certain that bitcoin is going to be adopted by the entire world. you set up the argument as a strawman - or where do you get your facts?

He is not certain about that? Well, maybe you should ask him on what does he think about that.

He estimates that there is an insanely high 1% chance that Bitcoin will reach 1,000,000 dollars per BTC.

That is 10k$/BTC expected value from that scenario alone. And the others are not all zero either.

As people learn about this insanely profitable risky bet offered to them, they buy in, mostly very little, because losing does not hurt, but winning changes their life.

When enough people buy, the price rises. Now we are closer to 1,000,000 and the probability to reach it therefore goes up.

This allows more people to buy, because less risk.

In the end, when the recursion is totally played out, the probability to hit an insanely high valuation of $1 million (or higher) is something like 20%.

And when you see and understand the above, it makes you even more willing to buy even more, increasing the price and ...

 

Thank you, now I can quote you on that when you're having your little motivational speeches about bitcoin being the world currency. I even saved your post and created a screenshot in case you decide to delete this.
You really are dumb, even when you're trying to prove, that you aren't.

[strawbs]

So someone thinks that someone else is dumb and is trying to convince others that that person is dumber.  And one of those accused of being dumb is offering but not really accepting bets that he is not dumb.

What's the average age around here?

[Rampion]

making predictions based on the certainty, that bitcoin will be adopted by the entire world, is a little beyond dumb.

strawman. god im so sick of strawmans around here.

why do speculators have to begin and end every sentence with "probably imo" we are specualators, grow up. we are playing a game of probability and Risto knows this better than you.

If you know something about speculation, then you know that there is no certainty in speculation. If someone is trying to pretent certainty, especially in a subject that is extremely uncertain, then that someone is a useless tool.

Did you buy a fucking CASTLE with the money earning trading Bitcoins? He did.

All said.

He bought in when bitcoins were at $10, you do not need to be a genius to make a huge profit in that situation. I pretty much suck at trading and still I increased my original investment by x50, how about that?

Furthermore, to give everybody a little perspective: the "castle" (btw: it is a manor, not a castle) is in ruins and it costed less than what a biggish flat would cost in any top capital (New York, London, etc.)

[rpietila]

What I like to call "check mate" 

but it's not certain! 

Current holders intuitively know it.

To make new money interested, we have to tell it.

It is a bit tricky, because it employs recursive probability.

[wachtwoord]

But why would anybody offer you 7:1 if you run up to them screaming that your bet is a guaranteed winner? You didn't ask for 7:1, you asked for "significantly better than 1:1." Well, what does that mean? I would call 4:1 significantly better,

I would call 3:2 significantly better than 1:1

[JayJuanGee]

I think that you are going much too far, and probably, I should NOT even be entertaining your post - b/c I have already have attempted to have genuine communications with you, without luck.  I even saw interaction between you and Rpietila, where he likely entertained you too much too - by giving you the benefit of the doubt concerning whether you were attempting to engage in a genuine or meaningful (non-troll conversation).

  People do dumb things, sometimes, and Rpietila is far from dumb - even though he has contradicted himself (at least regarding the bet issue) and rationalized his communications concerning the bet issue... but that does NOT make him dumb.. and also, he has made a lot of valuable contributions to the forum through his various postings over the years (I have NOT read all of them, but several and they are genuinely helpful in framing various issues and providing experiential perspective).

I was actually the one that gave him the benefit of the doubt, and I actually PMed him a serious and honest message, like he asked. And as predicted, he didn't respond. So, now I'm quite certain that there is no constructive communication possible with him. The only use he has is for entertainment purposes.

If you want to learn about his history, then learn about how he took an unprotected laptop to an sauna party, that got stolen together with the coins it held. In my book, it's either very stupid, or it's the work of an confidence man.
I don't know if you actually believe that he isn't dumb, or are you just trying to ass-kiss yourself a room at the "castle". And I don't actually care, you aren't the only one here who actually believes that he is smart. I have spoken my mind, and I think that he really is dumb.

You frequently seem to revert to inaccurate reframings of my posts and the posts of others, which tends to be irritating for me b/c I have NO ambition to repeat my posts and then maybe to say something differently from what I hS originally Posted. In this case, in my original post, I said that Rpietila does NOT seem dumb and has made a lot of valuable contributions to the forum, from what I could gather in my limited readings.  I may change my mind, but currently, I am of the opinion that his posts are genuinely contributory in a variety of ways.

Further, regarding whether I am ass kissing anyone, you may find the concept of respecting others difficult to understand.    For me, I would prefer to be respectful to the ideas and contributions of others, unless it seems to me that the other person(s) is(are) engaging in purposeful disingenuous communications, then I begin to get a little irritated and may attempt to articulate such irritation(s).

[chessnut]

No, the argument wasn't invalid. If you are even a little more then than stupid,.....

FTFY
 

[Markus11]

Back OT please children

[JayJuanGee]

Back OT please children

What's the topic, again?

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

You frequently seem to revert to inaccurate reframings of my posts and the posts of others, which tends to be irritating for me b/c I have NO ambition to repeat my posts and then maybe to say something differently from what I hS originally Posted. In this case, in my original post, I said that Rpietila does NOT seem dumb and has made a lot of valuable contributions to the forum, from what I could gather in my limited readings.  I may change my mind, but currently, I am of the opinion that his posts are genuinely contributory in a variety of ways.

Further, regarding whether I am ass kissing anyone, you may find the concept of respecting others difficult to understand.    For me, I would prefer to be respectful to the ideas and contributions of others, unless it seems to me that the other person(s) is(are) engaging in purposeful disingenuous communications, then I begin to get a little irritated and may attempt to articulate such irritation(s).

Calm down son, this subject is over for now.
And yes, I find it difficult to respect people in this thread. I have found couple that I can respect, but the general situation is pretty bad. Most here are a crossbreed of an used car salesman, an strip-mall lawyer, an scientologist and an corrupt municipal politician.

No, the argument wasn't invalid. If you are even a little more then than stupid,.....

FTFY
 

Thank you for correcting this terrible mistake.

[aminorex]

Well, there's certainly plenty of fiat on Huobi now.

[oda.krell]

Hey! Look:



We can now play ping pong between the 5 month log downtrend (resistance) and the 5 month linear downtrend (support).

wheeee... :D


(disclaimer: no, I'm not really saying that's the most likely path. probably just an amusing coincidence.)

[billyjoeallen]

Without any prior introduction, I posted the following. Because no prior info was given, this must be treated as the sole expression of my wish:

Based on my research, I don't believe we will see 435 ever again (Bitstamp). If someone is willing to bet (I naturally expect much better than 1:1 for me), PM please.

Chart1 & Chart2.

This is just the 2013-7-18 again. No looking back (when you least expect it).

Keywords:
- (implicit) in BTC
- (implicit) long duration at least 3 months (to adequately model "ever")
- trigger condition breaching 435
- someone (anyone can take it!)
- send me PM
- much better than 1:1 odds for me

Windjc's proposal:

In 2014-3-30, the exponential trendline model gave a buy signal at $460 and the price has been unable to go below it for any extended time even after 4 weeks.

In 2013-11-23 it gave a sell signal at $872 (SlipperySlope's 0.40 confidence) or 2013-11-28 at $1,056 (my 0.45 confidence). It was also unable to stay above it for any extended time.

What odds do you want? As I would be betting to win less valuable coin, you shouldn't get much better than 50%.

I think you will offer an unreasonable bet so that you don't have to make one at all.

But let me know.

Unreasonable? It's $30 to the trigger line (was $20 when I first called it). Are you willing to give 1:1 odds to me that price will hit $495 some point in the future? Of course not, you would not take that even at 10:1. So don't expect the same of me.

Lol. You didn't even make an offer. Why am I not surprised?

Since you are too chicken s*** to make a bet, here's one for you.

Bet $50k with of btc
Duration 30 days

If we hit 435 on Stamp and don't hit 500 I win.
If we hit 500 and not 435 you win
If we hit both or neither its a draw. And we both donate $1000 worth of btc each to charity.

Keywords:
- in USD
- short duration 30 days
- trigger condition breaching 435 and breaching 500, with both/neither considered a tie (windjc's estimation 90% this will end in a tie)
- aimed for me only, with insult
- public
- 1:1 odds, with charity clause

* *

EPILOGUE

It is difficult to read the thread because of so many posts, especially if you are of the type that never checks the sources and relies on people. But then you will also get the objectively wrong idea of what is happening. Here I wanted to have a nice private bet with anyone who thinks that breaking 435 is imminent and is willing to give me great odds for defending it. This windjc turned into a public challenge directed against me, with different terms in every 6 parameters that are important in a bet.

The bet itself seemed +EV for me so I decided to go on with it, but in the end there was not enough mutual agreement. As was perhaps the intention, windjc collected "fame" because I did not took his bet (why? do I also get points every time I propose things to people when it is not in their interest to comply?   ).

In the meanwhile nobody took my bet (the one which i would have unequivocally lost last night). Nobody was even interested. I had estimated that probability for 435 holding should be 10% in general public's eyes, but I thought it was 20%. So I would have taken 7:1 odds for me, and lost almost straight away.

I don't care about the bet. We all bet every time we trade. It was a shitty prediction that was proven wrong in a day. You don't seem to even be embarrassed by it, but instead focus on Clintonesque wiggle room in your bet proposal. It was a laughably bad call. What have you learned from it? If you say nothing, then I have even less respect for you.