MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]

[Alpaca Bob]

I see your point. The scary thing for those using MtGox is that Bitstamp seems to come out on top even if you take total MtGox volume vs Bitstamp volume these days. It will, of course, be more meaningful to say Bitstamp is #1 if this trend stays and it looks like that on the 30d, not just 1d or 3d periods. The trend seems to be pretty clear here - but that would of course change the instant MtGox starts doing withdraws - or would it? I mean, I can pay 0.6% (or maby 0.5% or something if I started using it) at MtGox or 0.34% at Bitstamp (or 0.08% at BFX and 0.35% at Bitstamp). MtGox has higher withdraw fees. And so on.

I just had a look at http://data.bitcoinity.org/#caaaabcfba.  MtGox is on top of all listed periods except for 3d (Bitstamp on top) and 10m (btcchina on top when I checked).

MtGox is back on top for all listed time periods now.  55% last 24 hours.  Btcchina is number 2 at 30%.

Ok now I'm starting to believe that you are a shill.

Here, have a look at this version: http://data.bitcoinity.org/#caaaabdiba

Why are you defending MtGox so vigorously? I can understand why you'd want to provide information on the whole withdrawal process, but at this point you're just defending anything MtGox related. Why?

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[manfred]

Because he has obviously has a good arbitraging deal going. Would't you milk the cow for what is't worth if you have the change to do it?

[sturle]

MtGox is back on top for all listed time periods now.  55% last 24 hours.  Btcchina is number 2 at 30%.

Ok now I'm starting to believe that you are a shill.

Here, have a look at this version: http://data.bitcoinity.org/#caaaabdiba

MtGox is on top of this one as well.  80.68%.  And it is interesting to note all the exchanges coming, growing and disappearing suddenly.  Some of them are missing.  It looks like btcchina may be overtaking Bitstamp as number 2 soon.

Why are you defending MtGox so vigorously? I can understand why you'd want to provide information on the whole withdrawal process, but at this point you're just defending anything MtGox related. Why?

I am just pointing out the fact that MtGox still is the largest exchange by volume.  Many people have contested that, and they are wrong.  Volume spikes on specific exchanges will shift the balance for a short time, of course.

[Frizz23]

MtGox do not depend on a steady income of deposits to keep up the reserve.

Yes they do! Because all those miners that spent thousands of dollars on BFL, Avalon, Bitfury, etc. devices want to make their money back asap. So they mine & sell Bitcoins.

Result: MtGox has a constant inflow of Bitcoin - but on the other hand is lacking a constant inflow of fiat (USD, EUR, JPY, ...).
-> this game comes to an end in the near future.

In addition to this, MtGox has revenue from trading fees ...

Fees? Are you serious? If someone buys Bitcoins for 1000 USD, MtGox makes 5 USD in fees. How does that help MtGox to "finance" the other party that sold Bitcoins for 1000 USD - and now wants to withdraw the USD? They still need to get 995 USD from somewhere ...

[weaknesswaran]

Buyer and seller pay fee, so it is 12$ when trading 1000$ at highest fee

[Alpaca Bob]

Because he has obviously has a good arbitraging deal going. Would't you milk the cow for what is't worth if you have the change to do it?

How is reassuring people helping out his arbitrage opportunity? If people weren't reassured, the price on Gox would probably be higher even, right?..

[sturle]

MtGox do not depend on a steady income of deposits to keep up the reserve.

Yes they do! Because all those miners that spent thousands of dollars on BFL, Avalon, Bitfury, etc. devices want to make their money back asap. So they mine & sell Bitcoins.

Result: MtGox has a constant inflow of Bitcoin - but on the other hand is lacking a constant inflow of fiat (USD, EUR, JPY, ...).
-> this game comes to an end in the near future.

I don't think you quite understand how bitcoin exchanges work.  The balance of fiat/BTC inflow will only affect the price.  Not MtGox's reserves.

In addition to this, MtGox has revenue from trading fees ...

Fees? Are you serious? If someone buys Bitcoins for 1000 USD, MtGox makes 5 USD in fees. How does that help MtGox to "finance" the other party that sold Bitcoins for 1000 USD - and now wants to withdraw the USD? They still need to get 995 USD from somewhere ...

The person who bought bitcoins for 1000 USD must have deposited those 1000 USD (i.e 1005 USD) at some time.  Or previously sold at least 1005 USD worth of coins to someone else who deposited 1010 USD.  People can't buy BTC unless they have deposited fiat at some time, or sold BTC to someone who deposited fiat.

[tvbcof]

Fees? Are you serious? If someone buys Bitcoins for 1000 USD, MtGox makes 5 USD in fees. How does that help MtGox to "finance" the other party that sold Bitcoins for 1000 USD - and now wants to withdraw the USD? They still need to get 995 USD from somewhere ...

Um...last I heard, to place a bid for $1000 worth of BTC, one first needs to somehow get $1000 to Mt. Gox.  The fees cover operating expenses.  Operating expenses include $10M lifted by Coinlabs and the US Govt of course.  Have Mt. Gox made the kind of money needed to account for this loss?  Who knows?  Bitcoincharts claims that $60M exchanged in the last 30 days.  Around 1/2 a mill.  Volume seems low compared to earlier this year when the prices (and thus, the fees) were higher.  Unknowns what the operating and infrastructure expenses are, but a mind-based back-of-the-envelope scribble seems to indicate that that they would be close to break-even without dipping to heavily into customer funds.

It is unknown how many other funds of theirs have been appropriated by the various financial institutions they deal with.  Also, I could imagine that they could have invested heavily in certain infrastructure earlier this year when they thought that their US troubles would be behind them complements of the Coinlabs deal.

It does not seem outrageous to me to hypothesis that they could have some cash flow issues though I had discounted it in the past.  OTOH, other hypothesis are also sufficient to explain their troubles.  One way or another, I would have to guess that the fiat inflows from buyers are dwindling significantly since their price sucks from that perspective, and the market-share which defines fees is also on the down-slide due to their inability to provide an actual exchange function for a broad swath of the userbase.

Will Mt. Gox pull through?  If not, will I be able to claim from the pool of funds held by the USG or Coinlabs?  All good questions.  Mt. Gox has proven to be survivors so far...and they have been through a lot in the brief history of Bitcoin.

[malevolent]

There are at least 2 large lawsuits:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=96118.msg2972913#msg2972913
And thats only those that were big enough to make the press.
In any case Gox has at least 5kk+ frozen and thats why they keep that bullshit about "bank problems" up.

Don't forget the $5.3M that was not returned to Mt.Gox and is being held by Coinlab.

[Lohoris]

Result: MtGox has a constant inflow of Bitcoin - but on the other hand is lacking a constant inflow of fiat (USD, EUR, JPY, ...).
-> this game comes to an end in the near future.

I don't think you quite understand how bitcoin exchanges work.  The balance of fiat/BTC inflow will only affect the price.  Not MtGox's reserves.

While I'm also not sure he gets it, he (maybe invountarily, maybe clumsily) raises an interesting point: if mtgox is operating as a fractional reserve (and it is, since AFAIK many funds are frozen), then yes its reserves might be drained out by too many people buying them.

[manfred]

Because he has obviously has a good arbitraging deal going. Would't you milk the cow for what is't worth if you have the change to do it?

How is reassuring people helping out his arbitrage opportunity? If people weren't reassured, the price on Gox would probably be higher even, right?..

As he is in Norway he needs someone local with a Japanese bank account, so he has teamed up with someone and in lieu he puts in a good word as part of the deal.

[sturle]

Fees? Are you serious? If someone buys Bitcoins for 1000 USD, MtGox makes 5 USD in fees. How does that help MtGox to "finance" the other party that sold Bitcoins for 1000 USD - and now wants to withdraw the USD? They still need to get 995 USD from somewhere ...

Um...last I heard, to place a bid for $1000 worth of BTC, one first needs to somehow get $1000 to Mt. Gox.  The fees cover operating expenses.  Operating expenses include $10M lifted by Coinlabs and the US Govt of course.  Have Mt. Gox made the kind of money needed to account for this loss?

Yes, no doubt about that.  8 M USD between April and August this year, and as you discovered yourself, half a mill in normal trading fees during the past 30 days.  In addition to this there have been much mixed currency trading the last month.  E.g. people selling BTC for JPY to bids made in another currency.  MtGox takes 2.5% for the currency conversion.  Most EUR and JPY volume was mixed currency.  Before April they didn't have much profit, but accumulated BTC fees from their early days is > 100k BTC which can be sold in an emergency.  This alone can cover the entire amount stolen by Peter Vessenes or seized by DHS.

Will Mt. Gox pull through?  If not, will I be able to claim from the pool of funds held by the USG or Coinlabs?  All good questions.  Mt. Gox has proven to be survivors so far...and they have been through a lot in the brief history of Bitcoin.

I'm an optimist.

[manfred]

Because he has obviously has a good arbitraging deal going. Would't you milk the cow for what is't worth if you have the change to do it?

How is reassuring people helping out his arbitrage opportunity? If people weren't reassured, the price on Gox would probably be higher even, right?..

As he is in Norway he needs someone local with a Japanese bank account, so he has teamed up with someone and in lieu he puts in a good word as part of the deal.

I don't quite see what putting in a good word is going to achieve?   I think he is just optimistic and reading some of the signals.   He has said a few things I know are incorrect and would lend me to believe he is not working with someone inside Japan to arbitrage.   But you never know.  Still, what does putting in a good word exactly do?

calming this tread down. Without him this tread would be one way street, you dont want a stampede. Believe me you feel a lot better when every other post is reasuring words.
He has some deal going, he is not stupit.

[Alpaca Bob]

Because he has obviously has a good arbitraging deal going. Would't you milk the cow for what is't worth if you have the change to do it?

How is reassuring people helping out his arbitrage opportunity? If people weren't reassured, the price on Gox would probably be higher even, right?..

As he is in Norway he needs someone local with a Japanese bank account, so he has teamed up with someone and in lieu he puts in a good word as part of the deal.

I don't quite see what putting in a good word is going to achieve?   I think he is just optimistic and reading some of the signals.   He has said a few things I know are incorrect and would lend me to believe he is not working with someone inside Japan to arbitrage.   But you never know.  Still, what does putting in a good word exactly do?

calming this tread down. Without him this tread would be one way street, you dont want a stampede. Believe me you feel a lot better when every other post is reasuring words.
He has some deal going, he is not stupit.

If there was a deal going on, then why wouldn't they just say so? Everybody wishes that someone from Gox was answering questions, instead of some Norwegian dude.

Also, if he's an arbitrager, then why would he want to calm people down? A stampede would be perfect for him since Gox' bitcoin price would inflate further...

[tvbcof]

...
Also, if he's an arbitrager, then why would he want to calm people down? A stampede would be perfect for him since Gox' bitcoin price would inflate further...

Ya don't kill the goose that is laying the golden eggs, ya know.

[Alpaca Bob]

...
Also, if he's an arbitrager, then why would he want to calm people down? A stampede would be perfect for him since Gox' bitcoin price would inflate further...

Ya don't kill the goose that is laying the golden eggs, ya know.

How would the goose die?

[joesmoe2012]

...
Also, if he's an arbitrager, then why would he want to calm people down? A stampede would be perfect for him since Gox' bitcoin price would inflate further...

Ya don't kill the goose that is laying the golden eggs, ya know.

How would the goose die?

I think a redneck shot it.

[tvbcof]

...
Also, if he's an arbitrager, then why would he want to calm people down? A stampede would be perfect for him since Gox' bitcoin price would inflate further...

Ya don't kill the goose that is laying the golden eggs, ya know.

How would the goose die?

If, for reasons which remain mysterious to me, there is a comfortable and stable gap between Mt. Gox and others, and if one has a relationship with Mt. Gox which allows the kind of turn-around needed to succeed at arbitrage, then it makes the most sense to try to just keep the happy state of affairs chugging along.  A 'stampede' at Mt. Gox would probably spell it's flame-out and thus the end to the milking the arbitrage.

[Nagle]

If, for reasons which remain mysterious to me, there is a comfortable and stable gap between Mt. Gox and others, and if one has a relationship with Mt. Gox which allows the kind of turn-around needed to succeed at arbitrage, then it makes the most sense to try to just keep the happy state of affairs chugging along.  A 'stampede' at Mt. Gox would probably spell it's flame-out and thus the end to the milking the arbitrage.

There is always the possibility that Mt. Gox itself, or someone closely associated with it who can get USD out, is exploiting the arbitrage opportunity.

[Alpaca Bob]

...
Also, if he's an arbitrager, then why would he want to calm people down? A stampede would be perfect for him since Gox' bitcoin price would inflate further...

Ya don't kill the goose that is laying the golden eggs, ya know.

How would the goose die?

If, for reasons which remain mysterious to me, there is a comfortable and stable gap between Mt. Gox and others, and if one has a relationship with Mt. Gox which allows the kind of turn-around needed to succeed at arbitrage, then it makes the most sense to try to just keep the happy state of affairs chugging along.  A 'stampede' at Mt. Gox would probably spell it's flame-out and thus the end to the milking the arbitrage.

I don't think this adds up. If you're able to get your $ out of Gox a stampede would be great since you could sell your $100 Bitstamp coins for $500 or whatever. The bigger the spread the better the arbitrage.