MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]

[smoothie]

Ah.  So the BTC-E discrepancy is due to difficulties getting fiat in and out of the exchange, while the MtGox discrepancy is due to distrust?  That's a new one!

If we are to believe the order books, a lot more BTC and their fiat is trusted to MtGox than to BTC-E.

I think it is the other way around.  Discrepancies are high for both due to difficulties getting fiat in or out.  MtGox price, volume, depth and liquidity is higher because people trust MtGox more than they trust BTC-E.

That is incorrect.  The price discrepancy between BitStamp/Gox (12-15%) vs BitStamp/BTC-e (1-3%) is magnitudes smaller.  You are comparing apples to oranges.

Sturle you perhaps should do the math yourself on the discrepancies in percentage and also look into the fees that BTC-e charges to get fiat in and out. MTGOX doesn't charge that much to get fiat in and out (given they actually allow fiat in and out).

Your response is obviously overlooking the very well known price difference between GOX and BTC-e due to FEEs and highlighting it as if it is "normal" trading when there is a legitimate reason for the price difference concerning BTC-e, Unlike GOX.

GOX does not charge large fees for fiat deposits or withdrawals and yet still has a 10%+ discrepancy that has not be explained by anything but mistrust.

I guess we disagree on this point.  I believe the discrepancy between MtGox and other exchanges is due to difficulties of getting USD (primarily) out, making arbitrage difficult.  Just as high fees does, as explained by smoothie.  You think the reason for the discrepancy is due to lack of trust in MtGox, even if every possible metric of trust show the opposite.  So I believe you are wrong, and I doubt you did the math yourself.

Please refresh me on what # week we are on since MTGOX stopped withdrawals back in June.

If I'm not mistaken we are sitting at week 9 or 10. That is a damn long time to claim there is a "backlog" when my withdrawal that went out on the 12th of June actually cleared but the one on the 13th did not up until the 3rd week of July before I had enough of the bullshit excuses they kept feeding their customers.

So yes trust is a huge factor in why the price has risen. The only outlet is to BUY bitcoins and move them to another exchange for 99% of their customers (from what I keep reading and seeing from my view and others here on this very forum).

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[smoothie]

[It proves everything, and you'd have to be blind not to see it.  You can see the price divergence directly correlated with "Bad news" for Gox. 

We can probably discuss this forever, but your graph still hides a lot of facts.  E.g. everything before April.  The fact that BTC-E followed nicely before and after the first period in May, but went below both Bitstamp and MtGox during the first period of divergence in May.  Does that mean BTC-E is the most trusted of those three?  The CoinLab suit started almost two weeks before your rectangle naming it, and instead your rectangle conveniently includes the announcement of new verification requirements and the end of OKpay (fiat withdrawal difficulties).  To name a few examples.

You overlook the fact that since BTC-e has been in existence not once has it had a 20% price discrepancy to MTGOX price.

That is a huge red flag you can't miss if you've been around that long to see the price action over the past two years.

[sturle]

So yes trust is a huge factor in why the price has risen. The only outlet is to BUY bitcoins and move them to another exchange for 99% of their customers (from what I keep reading and seeing from my view and others here on this very forum).

Common error to believe that 99% agrees with oneself.  If you count carefully in this thread, you will notice that less than 99% of posters have this problem.  And people who don't have this problem are unlikely to come here and complain in the first place.  And you only prove my point again.  The cause of the discrepancy is the problem of moving fiat reducing arbitrage possibilities, not lack of trust (as shown by every other metric).

[zeroblock]

To the contrary, people with biggish volumes and trusted status at Gox reported their money came thru the last weeks (two concrete names: mrbigggg and Epsiking - and both deal with USD).

Epsiking was conveniently the only one to claim the Bounty for a USD withdraw.  They are obviously given priority wires, the masses still have their funds stuck at Gox.

[OhShei8e]

It proves everything, and you'd have to be blind not to see it.  You can see the price divergence directly correlated with "Bad news" for Gox. 

And why is the Gap much more smaller on the market places? E.g.: https://www.bitcoin.de/de?tab=USD

[OhShei8e]

if a trusted status member was unable to withdraw his $500k we would definitely read about that. To the contrary, people with biggish volumes and trusted status at Gox reported their money came thru the last weeks (two concrete names: mrbigggg and Epsiking - and both deal with USD).

Could it be, that the delays only exists for verfied users? That would explain a lot.

[joesmoe2012]

I have never seen MtGox's market share below 50%.  Not even a 24 hour period.  Some people making that claim have done the mistake of ignoring all currencies on MtGox than USD.  Non-USD volume is usually a large part of the total volume on MtGox.

You think, this is an answer to my question?
Then again: Why did their USD market share crash from 75 to 45 percent within weeks?

I guess, because (as it is reflected bei the opinions in these threads) the smart money is rapidly leaving and the dumb money is still waiting (for godot), or doing 'arbitrage'.

The answer is more complex than you think.  First of all the total volume crashed.  MtGox is boss at high volume, and at low volume it is more even.  The volume has been record low for a while, and the reason why the picture is very different today.  Second, while USD volume at MtGox has gone down, EUR and JPY volume has gone up.  Those are the smart money doing arbitrage, buying BTC from other exchanges to sell at MtGox.  Then there are people panicing, of course due to USD withdrawal problems.  (That's your dumb money leaving at a loss.)

If you have an EUR withdrawal waiting for more than a week, you should check and make sure it is a SEPA withdrawal.  It is easy to make the mistake of making it an international transfer instead.  Then contact support to make sure everything is in order.  No errors in forms or anything else making the transfer fail.

What? I've had SEPA EUR transfers waiting weeks, you are speaking crap.

[OhShei8e]

What? I've had SEPA EUR transfers waiting weeks, you are speaking crap.

I know both. From less than one week to two months. Several of SEPA withdrawals between April and July. Each 9xx euros.

[Rampion]

What? I've had SEPA EUR transfers waiting weeks, you are speaking crap.

I know both. From less than one week to two months. Several of SEPA withdrawals between April and July. Each 9xx euros.

I can also report of very fast SEPA withdrawals in June (just checked again and they are from early June, not late as I recalled, but nevertheless they were very fast and there were already a lot of people complaining about delays in the forums).

Nevertheless, the cold hard fact is that there are indeed unacceptable delays for many customers, a lot of coins are disappearing from Gox order book, they are not showing up in the same quantity in other exchanges, and the divergence between exchanges grow while uncertainty spreads. Not a very healthy trading environment ATM, volume will go down until some clarity arises from this situation.

[italeffect]

Gox Dwolla siesure was $2.9M according to gigaom today:

http://gigaom.com/2013/08/19/feds-seized-2-9m-in-bitcoin-funds-from-mt-gox-court-docs-show/

[erk]

Gox Dwolla siesure was $2.9M according to gigaom today:

http://gigaom.com/2013/08/19/feds-seized-2-9m-in-bitcoin-funds-from-mt-gox-court-docs-show/

That's is certainly not petty cash!

[qxzn]

if anyone was doing any arbitrage, the gap would be closing not growing further apart.

This argument is not valid, in the sense that the conclusion doesn't follow from the premise. People could be performing arbitrage, and the spreads could still be widening, simply because the market forces widening the spread are stronger / doing more volume than the arbitrageurs.

[Nagle]

Gox Dwolla siezure was $2.9M according to gigaom today:

http://gigaom.com/2013/08/19/feds-seized-2-9m-in-bitcoin-funds-from-mt-gox-court-docs-show/

That's useful information.  See this Forbes article on seizures. US persons to whom Mt. Gox owes money might be able to claim status as an interested party. Also see this DOJ page. It's going to take a lawyer, but if Mt. Gox owes you money, you may have a claim against those seized funds.

[smoothie]

So yes trust is a huge factor in why the price has risen. The only outlet is to BUY bitcoins and move them to another exchange for 99% of their customers (from what I keep reading and seeing from my view and others here on this very forum).

Common error to believe that 99% agrees with oneself.  If you count carefully in this thread, you will notice that less than 99% of posters have this problem.  And people who don't have this problem are unlikely to come here and complain in the first place.  And you only prove my point again.  The cause of the discrepancy is the problem of moving fiat reducing arbitrage possibilities, not lack of trust (as shown by every other metric).

What problem are you talking about? The ability to withdraw fiat from gox ...OR...the FACT that the ONLY option to get funds out is to BUY BTC...

So you are telling me that people who BUY BTC, send it to another exchange and sell for fiat at a % loss DO NOT have mistrust for gox?

Perhaps reading the OP subject line and thread..this is a thread talking about the delays in fiat withdrawals and from my personal take, most here actually dont trust gox or speculate that gox may go belly up. Not that I am saying they will. I just am claiming I do not trust GOX.

[coastermonger]

MagicalTux seems to be unwilling to comment on the seizure of funds (I'm not sure if it qualifies as a civil asset forfeiture or not)

But Mark has commented on the fact that their income since April has been 8 million.  

source: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1kp4uf/gigaom_reporting_that_feds_seized_29million_from/cbr88ch

So it might seem like small change and MtGox is solvent after all, but don't let that fool you.  Their market share has tanked and April was the biggest volume ever.  Try asking what their income has been in the past 30 days and you might get a more startling answer.

I'm really curious if the problem can even be fixed by mass deposits and good confidence.  Suppose something happens in the BTC world that makes everyone go gaga and rosy in september, if many people went and wired fiat into Gox, would it even help their situation?

[solex]

Income is not profits. $8m in income since April is about $2.5m per month. Be generous and assume 30% is pure profit. $3m seized wipes out several months profit. Painful.

[manface]

I was reading the chat on https://mcxnow.com and saw realsolid talking about mtgox there. He claims that his talks with magicaltux indicate all SWIFT and IBAN transfers are blocked from mtgox. This includes all domestic USD withdrawals. The reason being that the US govt has put a block on their company doing any SWIFT/IBAN transfers that all banks are adhering to. He also said its going to clear up in a few week if talks with the US govt go well. Why hasnt this information been released by mtgox if its true?

Has anyone here got a USD withdrawal in the past few weeks?

[zeroblock]

I was reading the chat on https://mcxnow.com and saw realsolid talking about mtgox there. He claims that his talks with magicaltux indicate all SWIFT and IBAN transfers are blocked from mtgox. This includes all domestic USD withdrawals. The reason being that the US govt has put a block on their company doing any SWIFT/IBAN transfers that all banks are adhering to. He also said its going to clear up in a few week if talks with the US govt go well. Why hasnt this information been released by mtgox if its true?

Has anyone here got a USD withdrawal in the past few weeks?

Same old story, 2 more weeks!  And if that information was remotely true, he would have been hinting at it publicly.   

Oh and very very few if not none have received a USD withdraw in the past few weeks. 

[manface]

Same old story, 2 more weeks!  And if that information was remotely true, he would have been hinting at it publicly.   

Oh and very very few if not none have received a USD withdraw in the past few weeks. 

It would be unwise for magicaltux to make public statement about US government negotiations so he could be leaking the information to important customers?

[sturle]

What problem are you talking about? The ability to withdraw fiat from gox ...OR...the FACT that the ONLY option to get funds out is to BUY BTC...

What you call a fact is not.  Many people here have gotten fiat money out from MtGox.  JPY transfers arrive next day.  No reports claim otherwise, unless you spell your name wrong.  You and some people here spreading FUD for your own profit.  Your FUD campaign is what it is, and not even remotely related to fact.

So you are telling me that people who BUY BTC, send it to another exchange and sell for fiat at a % loss DO NOT have mistrust for gox?

They are quite stupid, panicing or falling for your FUD campaign.  First of all it is quite easy to sell at MtGox prices elsewhere.  I've always done that to avoid withdrawal fees.  There is no need to sell at a loss.  Secondly it is possible to get fiat out of MtGox.  See multiple confirmations in this thread.

Perhaps reading the OP subject line and thread..this is a thread talking about the delays in fiat withdrawals and from my personal take, most here actually dont trust gox or speculate that gox may go belly up. Not that I am saying they will. I just am claiming I do not trust GOX.

Delayed is quite different from impossible.