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Author Topic: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]  (Read 857322 times)
BitCoinNutJob
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August 20, 2013, 07:49:14 PM
 #881


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I care that everyone see the bigger picture, and understand the risks that they are taking.
99% of people on bitcointalk know depositing @ gox & expecting a quick withdraw at this point is risky its all over the forum.  Whats your real motivation?

Actually, I've found alot of people still don't realize the problems at Gox.  My company, ZeroBlock focuses on providing real time market data and aggregated news feeds cross platform on all devices. http://www.zeroblock.com/  We are currently deployed on iOS and will soon be on Android.  My only motivation is to spread information.  I've read more articles and analysis and anyone else in the world (the app was in beta for 1 month).  And what I'm seeing is a serous problem with Gox that needs to be addressed head on by Karpeles.  Once the news about the spread hits a mainstream news source, Gox is finished.

If gox all of a sudden finishes that is bad for the crypto community do you understand this? large sums of investment gone.   Gox can lose market share without dying, this is optimum for the bitcoin community.  

I certainly wanted the best outcome for Gox possible (and for Bitcoin).  But under the leadership of Karpeles, they have destroyed themselves.  Gox is already rapidly losing market share, and will soon not exist.


ok great so let them lose business naturally, spreading FUD all over the forum to advertise your site is just pissing people off.
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Nagle
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August 20, 2013, 07:53:42 PM
 #882

I certainly wanted the best outcome for Gox possible (and for Bitcoin).  But under the leadership of Karpeles, they have destroyed themselves.  Gox is already rapidly losing market share, and will soon not exist.
If they haven't been stealing customer funds, they should be able to get out of this hole. If they have been stealing customer funds, they're going down.

The real problem is denial of their obligations. Mt. Gox has serious financial obligations to their customers, and they try to sleaze out of them. That's usually associated with scams.

A legit Bitcoin exchange is probably going to have to register as a broker/dealer in some G-20 country, and comply with the regulations for regular brokers. Audits, insurance, capital requirements - it's not just about money laundering. Brokers hold customer assets, and somebody needs to be checking on them to see that they have those assets. Bitfloor and Bitcoinica customers learned that the hard way.

It looked for a while that CoinLab, which was backed by Silicon Valley Bank and some VCs, was going to do that for Mt. Gox. But they had a falling out within two months of signing a deal, and now they're in litigation.
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August 20, 2013, 07:53:52 PM
 #883

Ah, at the J_R Exchange. Nice spreads! 119.- / 79.-
If the market will bear it, why not?
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August 20, 2013, 07:53:58 PM
 #884


Quote
I care that everyone see the bigger picture, and understand the risks that they are taking.
99% of people on bitcointalk know depositing @ gox & expecting a quick withdraw at this point is risky its all over the forum.  Whats your real motivation?

Actually, I've found alot of people still don't realize the problems at Gox.  My company, ZeroBlock focuses on providing real time market data and aggregated news feeds cross platform on all devices. http://www.zeroblock.com/  We are currently deployed on iOS and will soon be on Android.  My only motivation is to spread information.  I've read more articles and analysis and anyone else in the world (the app was in beta for 1 month).  And what I'm seeing is a serous problem with Gox that needs to be addressed head on by Karpeles.  Once the news about the spread hits a mainstream news source, Gox is finished.

If gox all of a sudden finishes that is bad for the crypto community do you understand this? large sums of investment gone.   Gox can lose market share without dying, this is optimum for the bitcoin community.  

I certainly wanted the best outcome for Gox possible (and for Bitcoin).  But under the leadership of Karpeles, they have destroyed themselves.  Gox is already rapidly losing market share, and will soon not exist.


ok great so let them lose business naturally, spreading FUD all over the forum to advertise your site is just pissing people off.

Oh I was wondering where those pretty charts of the spreads between the exchanges came from. Zeroblock's site eh? I guess his advertising worked Tongue, I'm heading over to check out his site.
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August 20, 2013, 08:05:57 PM
 #885

ok great so let them lose business naturally, spreading FUD all over the forum to advertise your site is just pissing people off.
"Lose business naturally?" You mean just let other people get screwed by the spread? I'm not spreading FUD, im informing people of something that should be alarming!
People wouldn't lose money on the spread if they weren't listening to your FUD.  This is like watching a zombie movie.  Zombies trying to infect stupid people to make more zombies.  I make money on the spread.  So do many other posters in this thread, but not all of us are doing out best to escalate it.  To me what's best for Bitcoin comes before what's best for my own wallet.

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BitCoinNutJob
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August 20, 2013, 08:08:09 PM
 #886

I certainly wanted the best outcome for Gox possible (and for Bitcoin).  But under the leadership of Karpeles, they have destroyed themselves.  Gox is already rapidly losing market share, and will soon not exist.
ok great so let them lose business naturally, spreading FUD all over the forum to advertise your site is just pissing people off.

"Lose business naturally?" You mean just let other people get screwed by the spread? I'm not spreading FUD, im informing people of something that should be alarming!

And no I'm not trying to promote my business (its free anyway), you just asked what my motivation was so I told you.

oh so you dont care about those who have millions in gox & want a fair spread to get out? Its better for everyone if MtGox fade away slow - explain how its not?

& BS i've done enough internet marketing to know promotion, back linking etc, i dont really care about that but come on...
Nagle
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August 20, 2013, 08:08:56 PM
 #887

It sorta looks like what you're trying to do, zeroblock, when you say things like "The spread is widening at an alarming rate" is to cause more people to panic.
Well, the spread is widening at an alarming rate:

▲ mtgoxUSD    121.5000    
▲ bitstampUSD 104.4300
Spread: 16.8%

qxzn
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August 20, 2013, 08:19:10 PM
 #888

It sorta looks like what you're trying to do, zeroblock, when you say things like "The spread is widening at an alarming rate" is to cause more people to panic.
Well, the spread is widening at an alarming rate:

▲ mtgoxUSD    121.5000    
▲ bitstampUSD 104.4300
Spread: 16.8%

I guess it depends what your timescale is. That's actually narrower than it was yesterday.
qxzn
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August 20, 2013, 08:24:10 PM
 #889

I'm not mad at you, i'm just frustrated that no one is accessing the proper risk for the Gox situation.  I'm quite level headed for what should be shocking to everyone.  I have an undergrad degree in Finance, with an emphasis in European Union International Business.  I know exactly how arbitrage works, I've done cross currency swaps, and I've Black Scholes modeling (options pricing).  I know what I am talking about.  I would love for you to prove me otherwise by providing an academic paper that states that there are arbitrage opportunities that exist for extended periods of time. Here's round 1 from me:

Free Lunch! Arbitrage Opportunities in the Foreign Exchange Markets

"Using the “firm” quotes obtained from the tick-by-tick EBS (electronic broking system that is a major trading platform for foreign exchanges) data, it is found that risk-free arbitrage opportunities—free lunch—do occur in the foreign exchange markets, but it typically last only a few seconds. “Free lunch” is in the form of (a) negative spreads in a currency pair and (b) triangular arbitrage relationship involving three currency pairs."

"The size of expected profits is higher than transaction costs; trades that simultaneously take place on both sides of ask and bid (or three currency trades in case of triangular arbitrage) occur more often when free lunch appeared one second earlier than otherwise, suggesting that free lunch opportunities are actively taken. The probability of its disappearance within one second was less than 50% in 1999, but increased to about 90% by 2009."

http://www.nber.org/papers/w18541


I don't know the research, I don't have a degree in finance, all I know is I worked for years on wall street and our primary line of business was arbitrage trading, and we made good money doing it. It's funny, most of the folks at my firm didn't have a degree in finance either, maybe the finance majors were scared away from our company because what we did was theoretically impossible Smiley.

Also, your paper is about a very advanced and liquid market, forex. Don't you think applying its conclusions to the bitcoin markets is a little optimistic?
zeroblock
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August 20, 2013, 08:28:12 PM
 #890

It sorta looks like what you're trying to do, zeroblock, when you say things like "The spread is widening at an alarming rate" is to cause more people to panic.
Well, the spread is widening at an alarming rate:

▲ mtgoxUSD    121.5000    
▲ bitstampUSD 104.4300
Spread: 16.8%

I guess it depends what your timescale is. That's actually narrower than it was yesterday.

No. The average price variation yesterday was 15.93% (16%).  So this is higher than yesterday, intraday swings have been going from 12-20%.  You can verify this on Bitcoincharts.  Go to "view larger chart" then "load raw data" for the daily weighted price.

http://bitcoincharts.com/
Hawkix
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August 20, 2013, 08:31:59 PM
 #891

I can also confirm successful 1000 EUR SEPA withdrawal initiated at August 9th and finished today. 11 days. Delicious. Smiley. Thanks to all in the queue who bought BTC and left the place ..


Donations: 1Hawkix7GHym6SM98ii5vSHHShA3FUgpV6
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BitCoinNutJob
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August 20, 2013, 08:33:15 PM
 #892

I can also confirm successful 1000 EUR SEPA withdrawal initiated at August 9th and finished today. 11 days. Delicious. Smiley. Thanks to all in the queue who bought BTC and left the place ..



Sweet, thanks for the update!
Zarathustra
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August 20, 2013, 08:42:57 PM
 #893

ok great so let them lose business naturally, spreading FUD all over the forum to advertise your site is just pissing people off.
"Lose business naturally?" You mean just let other people get screwed by the spread? I'm not spreading FUD, im informing people of something that should be alarming!
People wouldn't lose money on the spread if they weren't listening to your FUD.  This is like watching a zombie movie.  Zombies trying to infect stupid people to make more zombies.  I make money on the spread.  So do many other posters in this thread, but not all of us are doing out best to escalate it.  To me what's best for Bitcoin comes before what's best for my own wallet.

You think, you are Jesus, but to promote companies with such unpronounceable 'customer service' is not good for bitcoin, it is very bad for bitcoin and its reputation.
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August 20, 2013, 10:02:10 PM
 #894

you all can choose to ignore reality but the facts are well known by now, let me summarize, feel free to correct me with facts:

1. there are currently capital controls on gox bank in the eu, thus sepa transfers are limited
2. swift based wires are limited due to their jp bank
3. some US based banks are refusing swift wires related to gox (citibank?) likely due to AML flags in the swift system
4. jp domestic wires are working

this is not an efficient markets scenario, thus we have the case of people willing to take a haircut who are desperate for cash.

obviously a lot of this is the fault of mtgox mgmt refusing to abide by intl AML and KYC reg's when dealing with fiat.  part of it may be an issue with that deal that went sour, so it would seem they had made a good faith effort to comply, they may be fined, but it is not the end of the world

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August 20, 2013, 11:05:39 PM
 #895

I've posted an analysis about the recent sudden rise above 120 on MtGox here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=278643

It might not be directly relevant to the discussion in this thread, but I think it provides very interesting insight into what is happening on MtGox now.

Short summary: The big move of mtgoxUSD on Aug 19th was a result of a very few (about 15) very large (1000-2000 BTC) orders, which were done by a handful (1-4) of individuals. For the full analysis see there!
Walsoraj
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August 21, 2013, 12:57:58 AM
 #896

I've posted an analysis about the recent sudden rise above 120 on MtGox here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=278643

It might not be directly relevant to the discussion in this thread, but I think it provides very interesting insight into what is happening on MtGox now.

Short summary: The big move of mtgoxUSD on Aug 19th was a result of a very few (about 15) very large (1000-2000 BTC) orders, which were done by a handful (1-4) of individuals. For the full analysis see there!

The price is-and has always been-controlled by a few individuals. we know *yawn*. that's how pump n' dumps work.

next pump: to the moon.

next pump after moon: thru the oort cloud.
Nagle
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August 21, 2013, 03:16:38 AM
 #897

Also, your paper is about a very advanced and liquid market, forex. Don't you think applying its conclusions to the bitcoin markets is a little optimistic?
It's not. Arbitrage between Bitcoin exchanges is (was) done by "'bots." Whenever the spread was above the transaction cost, arbitrage 'bots would do the necessary pair of trades on two exchanges. With arbitrage 'bots running and funded, the spread stayed very close to the transaction cost.

This stopped once Mt. Gox defaulted on their USD payments in June. With money stuck in Mt. Gox, arbitrage activities ran out of working capital.

So we have this right now:

▲ mtgoxUSD    124.1466    
▲ bitstampUSD 105.9800
Spread: 17%

bctjim
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August 21, 2013, 03:45:30 AM
 #898

Maybe gox is buying low from other sources(bitstamp, btc-e, etc).. and selling it high on gox.. someone alert the owners from bitstamp, etc about this possible shenanigan and stop it at its source.
zeroblock
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August 21, 2013, 04:32:03 AM
 #899

Also, your paper is about a very advanced and liquid market, forex. Don't you think applying its conclusions to the bitcoin markets is a little optimistic?
It's not. Arbitrage between Bitcoin exchanges is (was) done by "'bots." Whenever the spread was above the transaction cost, arbitrage 'bots would do the necessary pair of trades on two exchanges. With arbitrage 'bots running and funded, the spread stayed very close to the transaction cost.

This stopped once Mt. Gox defaulted on their USD payments in June. With money stuck in Mt. Gox, arbitrage activities ran out of working capital.

So we have this right now:

▲ mtgoxUSD    124.1466    
▲ bitstampUSD 105.9800
Spread: 17%



"This stopped once Mt. Gox defaulted on their USD payments in June." Well put Nagle.  The spread is all that matters, its a vote of confidence.  The increase in spread has an equivalent exponential decrease in faith. 
subi
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August 21, 2013, 04:40:38 AM
 #900

Been almost two months waiting for a withdrawal to Canada from MTGox.

Strange, their website still says:

"International Wire Transfers:  
At the moment we are manually processing wire transfers and have a slight backlog as we create a new withdrawal system with our banking partners. Your withdrawal may take two weeks or more depending on the amount.

Your patience and understanding in processing withdrawals is greatly appreciated."

Any support tickets I submit reflect a similar verbiage, and sometimes a copy and paste of their "press release" found here:
https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20130704.html
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