MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering]

[Zarathustra]

It's a risk premium. They buy because of the risk, that such companies with such information policies evidently have a high risk of going bankrupt. You are denying these facts and against these facts you are promoting such irresponsible, misleading zombie-business-behavior.

I can't see any reason to be concerned about MtGox's economy at their current volume.  Their income is good and likely much higher than their expenses.  People have been claiming bankruptcy over the Dwolla seizures, but when the amount became public the size fit straight into Mark's description.  Not a problem.  CoinLab is in liquidation, and the suit was without any merit anyway.  They never did anything to get licensed as a money transmitter.  So far MtGox seems to be in good health economically.

Their information could be better, more precise and more updated, but so far I haven't had any problems staying informed by watching the right channels.  Just don't believe anything the trolls here tell you second-hand.

Please tell me which facts I am denying.

As I wrote above: It's a risk premium. You are denying the fact that such companies with such information policies evidently have a high risk of going bankrupt. The merchants (smart money) left gox already. They are not stupid.

[Inedible]

Sturle & Zarathustra

Looks like you'll have to agree to disagree on this point.


We both get the points you're making and some will agree with one and others will agree with the other.

This is an issue of opinion and neither one is necessarily correct.

Time will tell which one of you is right for this occasion though.

[sturle]

As I wrote above: It's a risk premium. You are denying the fact that such companies with such information policies evidently have a high risk of going bankrupt. The merchants (smart money) left gox already. They are not stupid.

The smart money are still on MtGox doing arbitrage, just look at the JPY and EUR volume recently for proof.  The big players are still there, just look at the total volume recently for proof.  MtGox's order book is currently 13.5 million USD deep on the bid side.  500k less than the most I have seen, which was 14 million USD.  And there are no other exchanges showing more depth due to money leaving MtGox.  Evidence shows that very little money is leaving MtGox, and their market share is very healthy.  Even increasing during the last few days.

You have to explain how a company with a very healthy turnaround and profit and a sustained market share > 50% can go bankrupt due to information policy.  Bitcoin exchanges have traditionally closed due to banking problems (most common) or technical/security problems (deleting wallet, security breach, etc).  I don't know of any exchange going out of business due to information policy.

Bitstamp are in direct violation of the law in both GB, where the company is registered, and in Slovenia where their bank account is.  Do you think any smart money are going there?  At least MtGox has the formalities in order in Japan where they are registered.  Customers from the USSA have some problems due to their own incompetent government agencies.  That's fortunately not a problem for me, but may be for exchanges dealing with US customers.  Better be 100% in line with local laws and regulation when that happens, or go the way of Bitcoin24.

[Rampion]

Sturle: just two days ago there were 16M on Gox's order book. And you should have seen much more, it topped to aprox. 23M before the April, 10th crash.

[tvbcof]

As I wrote above: It's a risk premium. You are denying the fact that such companies with such information policies evidently have a high risk of going bankrupt. The merchants (smart money) left gox already. They are not stupid.

People living hand-to-mouth are typically going to be at a dis-advantage in any financial endeavor.  People who are not can take advantage of extra opportunities.  Sometimes this advantage is even codified into law.  e.g., long term capital gains tax rates.

I would not necessarily characterize merchants as 'smart money', but rather that their business model puts them at a dis-advantage and can box them out of advantageous exchange rate situations.

[BlueTemplar]

BitStamp :
Withdrawn (SEPA) $523.13 on July 25, 2013, 8:59 p.m., received 391,48€ at my bank on 29/07/2013.

MtGox :
Withdrawn (SEPA) 410.02€ on 2013/07/25 20:59:09, received 405,92€ at my bank on 31/07/2013 (through Mt. Gox Poland Inc.).

[ardana123]

these are all small withdrawals, what about 4 or 5 figure sepa withdrawals.

[OhShei8e]

As I wrote above: It's a risk premium. You are denying the fact that such companies with such information policies evidently have a high risk of going bankrupt. The merchants (smart money) left gox already. They are not stupid.

A wise man keeps all options open. If I would believe that Gox goes bankrupt, then I would immediately sell everything about Bitstamp and retire completely from the Bitcoin business. At least for the moment.

Gox holds 80% of all USD deposits. Do you think they can go bankrupt without the price will collapses? That would be the quadrature of the circle my friend.

[sturle]

Sturle: just two days ago there were 16M on Gox's order book. And you should have seen much more, it topped to aprox. 23M before the April, 10th crash.

Probably, if I'd looked. :-)

It is looking very healthy.  Bids increasing since beginning of July, and more than 72k BTC on the ask side.  Ask side has decreased a little, but no abnormal fluctuations.  Still higher than the beginning of April.  The zombie outbreak is smaller than I expected, but I guess the other exchanges can't even take a small one without tanking.

[OhShei8e]

Sturle: just two days ago there were 16M on Gox's order book. And you should have seen much more, it topped to aprox. 23M before the April, 10th crash.

Probably, if I'd looked. :-)

It is looking very healthy.  Bids increasing since beginning of July, and more than 72k BTC on the ask side.  Ask side has decreased a little, but no abnormal fluctuations.  Still higher than the beginning of April.  The zombie outbreak is smaller than I expected, but I guess the other exchanges can't even take a small one without tanking.

Just a few weeks ago there were 115k BTC on the Ask site. I am now in the middle of my first abritrage. Bought 5 BTC on bitcoin.de at 78 € and now sell 4 BTC at 99.5 € on Gox. This was only a test, but I will earn 20% (1 BTC)! I would not call the current market situation "very healthy", but very lucrative.  

Bitcoin.de has verified my identity now (Postident) and I can now buy larger quantities. This works unfortunately only for Germans easily. (Every German is registered with name and address to the authorities. These data are stored on our ID cards. Thus, lawfully identification is very easy and without charge for Germans in Germany.)

[ardana123]

99 euro, dafuq? 1 btc is 90 euro on gox right now.

[OhShei8e]

99 euro, dafuq? 1 btc is 90 euro on gox right now.

Yes, at the moment. We soon see $ 135 on Gox. Thats € 101, but I always speculate very conservative, so I sell for € 99.5.

[SGExodus]

99 euro, dafuq? 1 btc is 90 euro on gox right now.

Yes, at the moment. We soon see $ 135 on Gox. Thats € 101, but I always speculate very conservative, so I sell for € 99.5.

That's not the right way to do arbitrage.    You should sell immediately at the current gox price (perhaps even lower so you get immediate sales), withdraw the money, and re-fund bitstamp when withdrawal is done.  Rinse and Repeat.

[sturle]

these are all small withdrawals, what about 4 or 5 figure sepa withdrawals.

Looking good.  Just read a few pages back.  Note that SEPA maximum is 50 000 EUR.  Larger single transactions can not be sent via SEPA, and will become international wire.

[ardana123]

are you like a sales agent for gox or something?

[Zarathustra]

Sturle & Zarathustra

Looks like you'll have to agree to disagree on this point.


We both get the points you're making and some will agree with one and others will agree with the other.

This is an issue of opinion and neither one is necessarily correct.

Time will tell which one of you is right for this occasion though.

Yes, but I can not be wrong, because I don't predict that gox will go bankrupt. I only say, that companies with such behavier do have a high risk of going bankrupt, which is reflected in the market price.

[OhShei8e]

99 euro, dafuq? 1 btc is 90 euro on gox right now.

Yes, at the moment. We soon see $ 135 on Gox. Thats € 101, but I always speculate very conservative, so I sell for € 99.5.

That's not the right way to do arbitrage.    You should sell immediately at the current gox price (perhaps even lower so you get immediate sales), withdraw the money, and re-fund bitstamp when withdrawal is done.  Rinse and Repeat.

Under normal circumstances, you're right. But the circumstances are not normal. For obvious reasons I have to wait for the SEPA withdrawal from Gox for weeks. For the same reasons the price on Gox will not decline. I plot the charts and the order book very accurate. The USD / BTC ratio on Gox is now at about $ 200 and it continues to rise. There may be setbacks from time to time, but the price will continue to rise.

[sturle]

Us gov froze all the SWIFT/IBAN transfer of MtGox. SEPA still working.
--->According to RealSolid who talked to MagicalTux

Third hand information on this forum is very often wrong.  Perhaps RealSolid could tell us what MagicalTux actually said.  Did he explain how MtGox still manage to get USD wires out to customers?

From #bitcoin-otc on Freenode yesterday:

Code:

15:43 < joesmoe> received wire from gox today, just to clarify, transfers are working, albeit slowly. 6 figures USD.

Here is another one showing that MtGox indeed can wire money to the USSA (Luke-Jr lives in Florida):

Code:

13:18 <@MagicalTux> [20:18:44] <Blitzboom> how does a manual process work, and how much does it cost? <- you need to request it, and cost is only disclosed under a light NDA
13:19 < Luke-Jr> MagicalTux: what's involved in "go through the manual process"? I have a wire outstanding 21 days now, didn't realize there was more to it..
13:19 <@MagicalTux> Luke-Jr: contacting me usually works
13:19 <@MagicalTux> we'll need the reference id for the transfer too
13:20 <@MagicalTux> (or many transfers we can send as one)

[zeroblock]

Smart Money is exiting.

 

[sturle]

Smart Money is exiting.

(I have no idea what you are trying to say with that graph.  It shows that the big traders are still playing at MtGox.  Not much more.)

Smart money is becoming more smart money through arbitrage.  Did you make your favourite graph again today?  (Remember to fix the CoinLab rectangle, btw, and perhaps add LR and OKpay.)

21:20 <gribble> mtgox premium over bitstamp is currently 9.74957668657 %.