[BTC-TC] Deprived Mining Speculation (DMS)

[Deprived]

There's one more area where a potential conflict of interest could arise (unrelated to DMS) - between my personal orders and LTC-ATF.  I avoid actual conflicts here by always placing LTC-ATF's orders ahead of my own.

So LTC-ATF and my own buy orders were on same price - but with LTC-ATF's first.  And LTC-ATF already sold its shares off at .0025 (for a 150% profit) whilst when I tried to dump some at same price afterwards I got a lock error (loads of people trying to sell for a 150% profit I guess).

[Deprived]

Occurs to me that I still haven't properly addressed the 'conflict of interest' point.  In theory one definitely existed - as I represented both myself and DMS when agreeing the loan.  To determine whether it's a practical conflict of interest you have to consider two things:

1.  Did I unduly rush in making a decision - i.e. could I have taken feedback, had a vote etc to put the decision in other people's hands.  I'd argue no to this - the time-scale was way too compressed for that.
2.  If a decision HAD to be made quickly was the decision made correct?  i.e. was lending the 400 BTC better than NOT lending it FOR DMS.  I believe the answer to that is unequivocably yes.

I'm open to arguments on why either of the above is wrong - or why I've missed some basic point.  One potential argument is definitely that DMS could have held out for more than 5%.  But I KNOW that wouldn't have worked - as I deliberately offered the max I was willing to pay, precisely to avoid that scenario (had I wanted to do it on the cheap I could have just borrowed the cash without saying so or done it via DMS buying LTC-ATF.B2 at .35% per week).  5% was the MAX I was willing to pay for a loan for under a day (if I'd had more than an hour I wouldn't have paid over 1%).

It seems as though everything has turned out as it was supposed to and SELLING owners got a nice present.

I guess something that might come out of this is a vote could be put to asset holders as to whether this sort of thing can be allowed to happen in the future.

I admit if you were doing this every week I would start to feel that something was wrong. I acknowledge that you believe there were an unusual set of circumstances at play which justified taking such action.

And yes, anyone whose business plan is reselling BFL pre-orders sounds like a dickhead.

What I missed was that the IPO procedure wasn't the same as usual (it was all buried amongst pages of waffle).

Usually if X shares being sold at price Y then the issuer just places an Ask for Y shares at X and the top bids get filled.  I was happily bidding assuming that to be the case.  But that was NOT what was happenign - instead Y shares were being split evenly between all bids (over X) and all charged X each.

By time I noticed that it was under an hour until listed IPO time - plus there were majot issues with BTC-TC processing incoming tranbsactions (and no guaranteed enough blocks would be found anyway).

From my perspective I simply made a decision to give DMS 20 BTC to allow me to leverage my bid to buy what I would have bought anyway (or, as it turns out, slightly more - like 40 BTC worth more).  The cash I spent wasa cash I'd already mentally spent anyway (and so written off - any time I invest with anyone other than myself I first consider whether I'm willing to treat is as a total loss : if not I don't invest).  I think a lot of those complainign don't understand how the IPO worked and/or that the borrowed funds were (mainly) not ever going to ever do anything other than just sit in my wallet for a few hours.  As it happens last minute bids were below what I projected so I ended up running 40 BTC into the loaned cash - but tbh that's just a rounding error (and I'd prefer to have overspent than underspent anyway).

Really it's a simple case of would SELLING investors want a free 20 BTC or not?  With difficulty set to rise sharply even a total write-off wouldn't impact MINING.

EDIT: Fixed for drunken confusion between X and Y (they're next to one another on the keyboard - or at least on the same keyboard).

[stripykitteh]

Really it's a simple case of would SELLING investors want a free 20 BTC or not?  With difficulty set to rise sharply even a total write-off wouldn't impact MINING.

I would want the cash (and will gleefully accept my share of the 20BTC), but I hope you take my point that if it was happening all the time it would tend to affect how trustworthy you are perceived to be (not how trustworthy you ARE, but I hope you can see there's a difference).

Perhaps you can come back to this when you've slept off your Big Night Out?

[Deprived]

Really it's a simple case of would SELLING investors want a free 20 BTC or not?  With difficulty set to rise sharply even a total write-off wouldn't impact MINING.

I would want the cash (and will gleefully accept my share of the 20BTC), but I hope you take my point that if it was happening all the time it would tend to affect how trustworthy you are perceived to be (not how trustworthy you ARE, but I hope you can see there's a difference).

Perhaps you can come back to this when you've slept off your Big Night Out?

I totally get the point.

On a side-note, at present there's potentially a huge problem on BTC-TC.  Am Pming burnside about it then off to bed (it doesn't jeopardise loan repayment).

[twentyseventy]

Really it's a simple case of would SELLING investors want a free 20 BTC or not?  With difficulty set to rise sharply even a total write-off wouldn't impact MINING.

I would want the cash (and will gleefully accept my share of the 20BTC), but I hope you take my point that if it was happening all the time it would tend to affect how trustworthy you are perceived to be (not how trustworthy you ARE, but I hope you can see there's a difference).

Perhaps you can come back to this when you've slept off your Big Night Out?

I totally get the point.

On a side-note, at present there's potentially a huge problem on BTC-TC.  Am Pming burnside about it then off to bed (it doesn't jeopardise loan repayment).

Don't leave us hanging! What's the subject of the huge problem??

[stripykitteh]

Really it's a simple case of would SELLING investors want a free 20 BTC or not?  With difficulty set to rise sharply even a total write-off wouldn't impact MINING.

I would want the cash (and will gleefully accept my share of the 20BTC), but I hope you take my point that if it was happening all the time it would tend to affect how trustworthy you are perceived to be (not how trustworthy you ARE, but I hope you can see there's a difference).

Perhaps you can come back to this when you've slept off your Big Night Out?

I totally get the point.

On a side-note, at present there's potentially a huge problem on BTC-TC.  Am Pming burnside about it then off to bed (it doesn't jeopardise loan repayment).

Don't leave us hanging! What's the subject of the huge problem??

It looks as though post-IPO of Labcoin there was a situation where an Ask showed up as being for 2^32-1 shares (i.e., over 4 billion). I don't know if it was caused by someone typing -1 as the amount of shares being offered or something else. It looks like it has been fixed manually.

[twentyseventy]

Thanks for the answer, I appreciate it

[Lytse]

I think the moon is made of blue cheese, whats wrong with that? 

Great to have an extra 20 BTC to share...

And for the conflict of interest:
I hope Deprived gets arrested this moment and is not allowed to use the internet and or phone for the next three days that way we have another 60 BTC to share... 

[Deprived]

I think the moon is made of blue cheese, whats wrong with that? 

Great to have an extra 20 BTC to share...

And for the conflict of interest:
I hope Deprived gets arrested this moment and is not allowed to use the internet and or phone for the next three days that way we have another 60 BTC to share... 

No such luck.  Cash is all back (with the interest) now.

A quick check of my spreadsheet shows that even after today's MINING dividend we'll be back over 400 days of dividend left.

[Deprived]

Really it's a simple case of would SELLING investors want a free 20 BTC or not?  With difficulty set to rise sharply even a total write-off wouldn't impact MINING.

I would want the cash (and will gleefully accept my share of the 20BTC), but I hope you take my point that if it was happening all the time it would tend to affect how trustworthy you are perceived to be (not how trustworthy you ARE, but I hope you can see there's a difference).

Perhaps you can come back to this when you've slept off your Big Night Out?

I totally get the point.

On a side-note, at present there's potentially a huge problem on BTC-TC.  Am Pming burnside about it then off to bed (it doesn't jeopardise loan repayment).

Don't leave us hanging! What's the subject of the huge problem??

Issue was that when I sold LTC-ATF's Coinlab shares it managed to double-sell some of them, giving me ( more accurately LTC-ATF) BTC we shouldn't have had.  I PMed burnside and he confirmed there was a problem - and that mine was actually the worst case that occurred (it wasn't huge - only a 30 BTC or so error).  Don't think he's actually taken the cash back yet - though got to do some messy math now to work out what LTC-ATF's balance on BTC-TC actually should be.  Even drunk I noticed when the balance went up more than it should have.

I didn't say what the issue was last night - as I wanted to make sure burnside was aware of it and had a chance to fix it before telling everyone and having people try to exploit the issue then cash-out.

[Deprived]

I've withdrawn 20 BTC of our J-D investment back to the BTC-TC wallet (it's not there yet but transaction is awaiting confirmations).

Had to do that to get our amount invested there down to the 10% max.  Total we've invested into J-D now (our principal) has dropped from 160 BTC to 140 BTC.  It's up about 1 BTC since yesterday's report - in total we've made about 14 BTC profit there.

Coinlenders investment is also right on its limit now - but I can't divest there anyway.  Will review that when next CD matures.  I doubt I'll be cashing out any more MINING+SELLING myself.

[eltopo]

Not related to DMS, but: Did you sell the Labcoin shares at 200-300% or do you still hold? Do you see any difference between Labcoin and BTCGarden or ActiveMining?

[Deprived]

Not related to DMS, but: Did you sell the Labcoin shares at 200-300% or do you still hold? Do you see any difference between Labcoin and BTCGarden or ActiveMining?

I bought ~200 BTC-worth of Labcoin on my personal account.  Have sold some - getting ~300 BTC back (after repayment of loan + interest) and have about 75K more left.  Could sell those now and be up ~300 BTC but not in any great rush.  Now I've got a little bit of profit locked in I can hold the rest for a while until I have time to do some proper math and figure out whether they're worth keeping long-term or should just be sold whenever it next bubbles up.

ActiveMining has been a cluster-fuck from start to finish.  There's major flaws that noone's even spotted/pointed out.  I've traded it a bit for LTC-ATF but never held on to them longer than I had to for an easy profit flipping.

BTCGarden I skimmed the contract and there were a few issues that put me off touching it.  If it gets near sold out I may try to flip some of the 1st load but at present I don't really want to risk holding them for any length of time.

In general I don't invest in securities other than my own - nor does my fund LTC-ATF.  There ARE other decent investments around but I've never seen the need to take on protracted CP risk when I can make more profit trading with less risk.

[stripykitteh]

ActiveMining has been a cluster-fuck from start to finish.  There's major flaws that noone's even spotted/pointed out.

At the risk of diverting this thread, I am also at a loss over the ActiveMining hype. Some time before the pre-IPO fiasco I had them pegged as unlikely to accomplish anything. Of course I was wrong. They've managed to convince the masses they are AsicMiner 2.0. I might have missed out on a quick profit there but I couldn't see the point in investing time in something I didn't think was worth holding.

[Deprived]

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    917.12807919
11285 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    200.45008602
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.19082091
Just-Dice Balance    154.04382236
TOTAL ASSETS    1,485.74280848
   
Outstanding MINING   43012
Outstanding SELLING   43012
Outstanding PURCHASE   2738
Effective Units   45750
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,482.06235261
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03239481
Days Dividend Post Div   402.68
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,482.06235261
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03239481
PURCHASE selling price    0.03401
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03175
   
J-D House profit at report   2773

[Deprived]

Sold   27
Swapped   0
Total   27
Price   0.03401
Total   0.91827
Less Fee   0.91643346
Man Fee   0.027493004

BTC Balance (BTC-TC)    910.70537265
11285 LTC-ATF.B1    112.93000000
Coinlenders CD 28/8    200.58810059
Coinlenders CD 13/8    101.25889728
Just-Dice Balance    154.02189508
TOTAL ASSETS    1,479.50426560
   
Outstanding MINING   43100
Outstanding SELLING   43100
Outstanding PURCHASE   2562
Effective Units   45662
   
Block reward   25
Difficulty   31,256,961
Hashes per MINING   5000000
   
Daily Dividend    0.00008045
50 days (Min Liquid)    0.00402236
100 days (Forced Close)    0.00804471
365 days (Buyback)    0.02936320
405 days (IPO)    0.03258108
400 days (Post SELLING div)    0.03217885
410 days (Pre SELLING div)    0.03298332
   
NAV Post MINING Div    1,475.83088908
NAV/U Post MINING Div    0.03232077
Days Dividend Post Div   401.76
SELLING Dividend    -         
NAV Post SELLING Div    1,475.83088908
NAV/U Post Selling Div    0.03232077
PURCHASE selling price    0.03394
PURCHASE buy-back price    0.03167
   
J-D House profit at report   2757

[Deprived]

Just noticed a minor error - the LTC-ATF.B1 were overvalued by .08 BTC (When I last sold some I obviously edited the description but not the amount).  It'll be fixed in tomorrow's report - not going to do redo report for that.

[Lytse]

I think the moon is made of blue cheese, whats wrong with that? 

Great to have an extra 20 BTC to share...

And for the conflict of interest:
I hope Deprived gets arrested this moment and is not allowed to use the internet and or phone for the next three days that way we have another 60 BTC to share... 

No such luck.  Cash is all back (with the interest) now.

A quick check of my spreadsheet shows that even after today's MINING dividend we'll be back over 400 days of dividend left.

+1

[eltopo]

New difficulty 37,392,766 (+19.6%)

SELLING dividend will be paid on sunday, ~0.0053 (+/- PURCHASE sells and investment gains)

[Hfleer]

New difficulty 37,392,766 (+19.6%)

SELLING dividend will be paid on sunday, ~0.0053 (+/- PURCHASE sells and investment gains)

Decent jump, and we can expect them to continue at near that rate I bet.  Mining will get something around .000067 dividends at that difficulty.