ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[carpetbagger]

More than 30 bitcents of difference between bitfunder and btc-tc? I understand that fees are lower on btc-tc (and I can see how paying 4-5% more can be worth it if you're a day trader) but are there other reasons?

There's also been some long running issues with the administration & dividends of the PT on bitfunder.

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[lophie]

More than 30 bitcents of difference between bitfunder and btc-tc? I understand that fees are lower on btc-tc (and I can see how paying 4-5% more can be worth it if you're a day trader) but are there other reasons?

There's also been some long running issues with the administration & dividends of the PT on bitfunder.

Yup, Thats why I am pulling out all my shares there.

[Rannasha]

The BitFunder PT issues were mostly a temporary thing, I think. DeaDTerra transferring the operation to Ukyo (who also operates BitFunder, so reducing the CP risk of that PT) took a lot of time and didn't go very smoothly. Now that it has been resolved, I expect BitFunder and BTC-TC prices to approach eachother again.

[runeks]

I'm interested in buying some 84-day ASICMINER-PT puts, issued on btct.co.

I'm thinking a strike price of 2.2 for a premium of 0.35 BTC per contract. But let me know if you have another offer in that ballpark. They must be of 84-day duration though.

I'm looking to buy around 10 contracts, but not necessarily from the same person.

Let me know via PM if you're interested.

[carpetbagger]

I see, so there were some concerns about administration. I don't really pay attention to how quickly dividends are payed, but I can understand how this could be a problem for big holders or whoever wants to pull out shares.

I don't want to give anyone the wrong idea, so maybe read the last few pages of the G.ASICMINER-PT thread and see what you think.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=148827.280

Looks pretty messy to me, and not just dividend delays. And it seems to me as though Ukyo has confiscated someone's shares... Kind of a bold move, even if they were annoying him.

[ThickAsThieves]

I see, so there were some concerns about administration. I don't really pay attention to how quickly dividends are payed, but I can understand how this could be a problem for big holders or whoever wants to pull out shares.

I don't want to give anyone the wrong idea, so maybe read the last few pages of the G.ASICMINER-PT thread and see what you think.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=148827.280

Looks pretty messy to me, and not just dividend delays. And it seems to me as though Ukyo has confiscated someone's shares... Kind of a bold move, even if they were annoying him.

That is not the whole story. But since the story is only partially known by me, I will leave it to Ukyo to tell it.

[weaknesswaran]

I see, so there were some concerns about administration. I don't really pay attention to how quickly dividends are payed, but I can understand how this could be a problem for big holders or whoever wants to pull out shares.

I don't want to give anyone the wrong idea, so maybe read the last few pages of the G.ASICMINER-PT thread and see what you think.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=148827.280

Looks pretty messy to me, and not just dividend delays. And it seems to me as though Ukyo has confiscated someone's shares... Kind of a bold move, even if they were annoying him.

That is not the whole story. But since the story is only partially known by me, I will leave it to Ukyo to tell it.

I hope it was not a fractional reserve issue

[carpetbagger]

Fair enough Tat. I hope he tells it then.

[Deprived]

More than 30 bitcents of difference between bitfunder and btc-tc? I understand that fees are lower on btc-tc (and I can see how paying 4-5% more can be worth it if you're a day trader) but are there other reasons?

Due to various cockups/delays it's not possible to withdraw ASICM shares from Bitfunder.  That makes them like USD on Gox - not able to be withdrawn/converted into the real thing, so trading at a discount to those able to be converted.

It also makes arbitrage impossible - which is the means by which the gap would usually be closed.

Ukyo appears to be creating a feed-back loop on it as well.  He doesn't want arbitrage to occur - which causes the gap to widen, which increases the demand for arbitrage, which increases the workload he'd have if he allowed arbitrage, which makes him even less keen on allowing it etc.

[lophie]

More than 30 bitcents of difference between bitfunder and btc-tc? I understand that fees are lower on btc-tc (and I can see how paying 4-5% more can be worth it if you're a day trader) but are there other reasons?

Due to various cockups/delays it's not possible to withdraw ASICM shares from Bitfunder.  That makes them like USD on Gox - not able to be withdrawn/converted into the real thing, so trading at a discount to those able to be converted.

It also makes arbitrage impossible - which is the means by which the gap would usually be closed.

Ukyo appears to be creating a feed-back loop on it as well.  He doesn't want arbitrage to occur - which causes the gap to widen, which increases the demand for arbitrage, which increases the workload he'd have if he allowed arbitrage, which makes him even less keen on allowing it etc.

What about the ones who wants to withdraw their shares because the security holde was changed from DeaDTerra to Ukyo and it took a long time and frankly it just freaking them out because it is alot of money being in limbo? Denying the ones with the intention of Arb trading is more important? I am sorry but it does not justify the hold up and doesn't ease the nerves of the shareholders of the PT.

[ThickAsThieves]

More than 30 bitcents of difference between bitfunder and btc-tc? I understand that fees are lower on btc-tc (and I can see how paying 4-5% more can be worth it if you're a day trader) but are there other reasons?

Due to various cockups/delays it's not possible to withdraw ASICM shares from Bitfunder.  That makes them like USD on Gox - not able to be withdrawn/converted into the real thing, so trading at a discount to those able to be converted.

It also makes arbitrage impossible - which is the means by which the gap would usually be closed.

Ukyo appears to be creating a feed-back loop on it as well.  He doesn't want arbitrage to occur - which causes the gap to widen, which increases the demand for arbitrage, which increases the workload he'd have if he allowed arbitrage, which makes him even less keen on allowing it etc.

What about the ones who wants to withdraw their shares because the security holde was changed from DeaDTerra to Ukyo and it took a long time and frankly it just freaking them out because it is alot of money being in limbo? Denying the ones with the intention of Arb trading is more important? I am sorry but it does not justify the hold up and doesn't ease the nerves of the shareholders of the PT.

It's also worth noting that arb trading isn't exactly against the rules anyway. Yes, abusive use of the service should be denied, but if someone wants to move 250+ shares to another exchange every few weeks, it's not a big deal. The minimum qty of 250 they have in place mitigates exports to a low amount of work on its own.

[Deprived]

More than 30 bitcents of difference between bitfunder and btc-tc? I understand that fees are lower on btc-tc (and I can see how paying 4-5% more can be worth it if you're a day trader) but are there other reasons?

Due to various cockups/delays it's not possible to withdraw ASICM shares from Bitfunder.  That makes them like USD on Gox - not able to be withdrawn/converted into the real thing, so trading at a discount to those able to be converted.

It also makes arbitrage impossible - which is the means by which the gap would usually be closed.

Ukyo appears to be creating a feed-back loop on it as well.  He doesn't want arbitrage to occur - which causes the gap to widen, which increases the demand for arbitrage, which increases the workload he'd have if he allowed arbitrage, which makes him even less keen on allowing it etc.

What about the ones who wants to withdraw their shares because the security holde was changed from DeaDTerra to Ukyo and it took a long time and frankly it just freaking them out because it is alot of money being in limbo? Denying the ones with the intention of Arb trading is more important? I am sorry but it does not justify the hold up and doesn't ease the nerves of the shareholders of the PT.

It's also worth noting that arb trading isn't exactly against the rules anyway. Yes, abusive use of the service should be denied, but if someone wants to move 250+ shares to another exchange every few weeks, it's not a big deal. The minimum qty of 250 they have in place mitigates exports to a low amount of work on its own.

I thought DT allowed smaller transfers than that - though I could be wrong on that as I've never tried moving any out myself (only ASICM transfer I've done was a single deposit of them from direct shares into BTC-TC).

I'd read Ukyo's view as being that he was going to disallow smaller trades - if he wanted to remove even the 250+ then that would need a contract change.  Then he'd have to offer everyone a chance to transfer out (even smaller amounts) before such a change went live (there's no provision for changing the contract so everyone would need to be offered a fair exit if he wanted to change it).

[pikeadz]

I think the price still has not broke out of the downtrend, well poor souls that brought AM @ 5ish...

I see it going down to 1 to 1.2 with all the hardware on the horizon.  And I won't even buy back in there because I don't think Asicminer will ever grow its share of the hash rate, and hardware sales is an upward hill.  In sum, Friedcat better find another hook.

[lophie]

More than 30 bitcents of difference between bitfunder and btc-tc? I understand that fees are lower on btc-tc (and I can see how paying 4-5% more can be worth it if you're a day trader) but are there other reasons?

Due to various cockups/delays it's not possible to withdraw ASICM shares from Bitfunder.  That makes them like USD on Gox - not able to be withdrawn/converted into the real thing, so trading at a discount to those able to be converted.

It also makes arbitrage impossible - which is the means by which the gap would usually be closed.

Ukyo appears to be creating a feed-back loop on it as well.  He doesn't want arbitrage to occur - which causes the gap to widen, which increases the demand for arbitrage, which increases the workload he'd have if he allowed arbitrage, which makes him even less keen on allowing it etc.

What about the ones who wants to withdraw their shares because the security holde was changed from DeaDTerra to Ukyo and it took a long time and frankly it just freaking them out because it is alot of money being in limbo? Denying the ones with the intention of Arb trading is more important? I am sorry but it does not justify the hold up and doesn't ease the nerves of the shareholders of the PT.

It's also worth noting that arb trading isn't exactly against the rules anyway. Yes, abusive use of the service should be denied, but if someone wants to move 250+ shares to another exchange every few weeks, it's not a big deal. The minimum qty of 250 they have in place mitigates exports to a low amount of work on its own.

Also worth noting that the transfers are within the agreement of the PT. Moving ownership does not make it invalid or suspended especially since the ownership transfer has been already recognized by Friedcat. It is not like it is a rookie Ukyo is the operator of Bitfunder itself!

[bbxx]

I think the price still has not broke out of the downtrend, well poor souls that brought AM @ 5ish...

I see it going down to 1 to 1.2 with all the hardware on the horizon.  And I won't even buy back in there because I don't think Asicminer will ever grow its share of the hash rate, and hardware sales is an upward hill.  In sum, Friedcat better find another hook.

you sold at 2 and you regret, dont you ?

Firedcat will figure out something.
He can produce not only mining equipment.

[glendall]

Ya I think things look good. Asicminer is one the most, if not the most,  reliable investment in Bitcoin I'd say. At these prices.

[keeron]

They are sold out of the new blades (see the postings on group buy forum) as well as closing on selling out the USB erupters (the prices have dropped again - 0.15 or less - to probably liquidate the remaining items). Add to this the consistent hashrate in the last few days and the ad space buy from friedcat - I think we are going to see the rise again.

Its time for folks to sold hastily at 2 to buy back before it gets crazy again...and for folks who brought at 3.5 - 5 and are patiently waiting - keep your fingers crossed! Things are getting better.

Predicting the next dividend to be on part with the last one (~0.012 to 0.014)

[mechs]

Interesting to see bitfunder PT artificially low and BTCT PT artficially high due to the Bitfunder issues.  This is going to permanently damage bitfunder's reputation.  Huge screw-up to the benefit of btct and haverlock.

[Vycid]

Calling the top soon. Another couple hundred shares just moved into the PT. Eventually the artificial boost from Bitfunder will adjust also.

[mechs]

Calling the top soon. Another couple hundred shares just moved into the PT. Eventually the artificial boost from Bitfunder will adjust also.

I hope so.  I have to pay 0.5BTC to kibblesnbits if we hit 3.2 before 1.2