ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[mechs]

I think what we are seeing is closer the 'real' value of AM stock.  It's no secret it has been overvalued for some time now.

Very much so. I think it's still overpriced at 2.

I think you are a bear. But to be honest most long term shareholders dont care since they are there since IPO at 0.1

Trust me they care.  Even if you bought in at 0.1, noone likes to have seen this go up to 5.2 and now be sitting here at about 2BTC. A 60% haircut from the top.

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[tinus42]

I think what we are seeing is closer the 'real' value of AM stock.  It's no secret it has been overvalued for some time now.

Very much so. I think it's still overpriced at 2.

I think you are a bear. But to be honest most long term shareholders dont care since they are there since IPO at 0.1

Trust me they care.  Even if you bought in at 0.1, noone likes to have seen this go up to 5.2 and now be sitting here at about 2BTC. A 60% haircut from the top.

Unless you sold at 5.2 and bought back at 2.

Did that at a lesser top and higher low.

I did buy a small amount of shares at 2 today.

Maybe it will get even cheaper but I'm in this for the long haul.

[CMMPro]

I bought a few more shares at <2.

The divs alone are worth it at this low price.

[mechs]

I bought a few more shares at <2.

The divs alone are worth it at this low price.

Only if the dividends are maintained. 

I think with bitfury shipping and more of the competitors with October/November shipping dates, ASICMiner does not seem to be giving out news indicating it will be able to keep up with this next generation.  It was easy when their competition was BFL and Avalon (2 poorly run companies), but now serious competition has come and minig about to be commoditized. 

You can quote me on this - Asicminer is at 2.2 right now.  It will see 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC. 

[kibblesnbits]

I bought a few more shares at <2.

The divs alone are worth it at this low price.

Only if the dividends are maintained. 

I think with bitfury shipping and more of the competitors with October/November shipping dates, ASICMiner does not seem to be giving out news indicating it will be able to keep up with this next generation.  It was easy when their competition was BFL and Avalon (2 poorly run companies), but now serious competition has come and minig about to be commoditized. 

You can quote me on this - Asicminer is at 2.2 right now.  It will see 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC. 

I'll quote it.  Gentlemans wager of 1BTC?  You pick the exchange.

[mechs]

I bought a few more shares at <2.

The divs alone are worth it at this low price.

Only if the dividends are maintained. 

I think with bitfury shipping and more of the competitors with October/November shipping dates, ASICMiner does not seem to be giving out news indicating it will be able to keep up with this next generation.  It was easy when their competition was BFL and Avalon (2 poorly run companies), but now serious competition has come and minig about to be commoditized. 

You can quote me on this - Asicminer is at 2.2 right now.  It will see 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC. 

I'll quote it.  Gentlemans wager of 1BTC?  You pick the exchange.

I am more like 0.5BTC sure;)  BTCT the exchange on the ASICMINER-PT shares. 
I win if any trades for 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC
You win if vice-versa
deall?

[kibblesnbits]

I bought a few more shares at <2.

The divs alone are worth it at this low price.

Only if the dividends are maintained.  

I think with bitfury shipping and more of the competitors with October/November shipping dates, ASICMiner does not seem to be giving out news indicating it will be able to keep up with this next generation.  It was easy when their competition was BFL and Avalon (2 poorly run companies), but now serious competition has come and minig about to be commoditized.  

You can quote me on this - Asicminer is at 2.2 right now.  It will see 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC.  

I'll quote it.  Gentlemans wager of 1BTC?  You pick the exchange.

I am more like 0.5BTC sure;)  BTCT the exchange on the ASICMINER-PT shares.  
I win if any trades for 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC
You win if vice-versa
deall?

Sounds good! No short selling on your part.

[mechs]

I bought a few more shares at <2.

The divs alone are worth it at this low price.

Only if the dividends are maintained.  

I think with bitfury shipping and more of the competitors with October/November shipping dates, ASICMiner does not seem to be giving out news indicating it will be able to keep up with this next generation.  It was easy when their competition was BFL and Avalon (2 poorly run companies), but now serious competition has come and minig about to be commoditized.  

You can quote me on this - Asicminer is at 2.2 right now.  It will see 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC.  

I'll quote it.  Gentlemans wager of 1BTC?  You pick the exchange.

I am more like 0.5BTC sure;)  BTCT the exchange on the ASICMINER-PT shares.  
I win if any trades for 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC
You win if vice-versa
deall?

Sounds good! No short selling on your part.

I'll keep to my word.  If you worried, we can escrow the bets.

[kibblesnbits]

Nah that's ok.  It'll be easy to spot
/handshake

[Vycid]

Nah that's ok.  It'll be easy to spot
/handshake

Since you offered 1 BTC originally,  can I pick up the other half?

Same terms. 0.5 to the winner, 3.2 or 1.2 first on BTCT. I say 1.2.

[CMMPro]

I bought a few more shares at <2.

The divs alone are worth it at this low price.

Only if the dividends are maintained. 

I think with bitfury shipping and more of the competitors with October/November shipping dates, ASICMiner does not seem to be giving out news indicating it will be able to keep up with this next generation.  It was easy when their competition was BFL and Avalon (2 poorly run companies), but now serious competition has come and minig about to be commoditized. 

You can quote me on this - Asicminer is at 2.2 right now.  It will see 1.2BTC before 3.2BTC. 

I firmly believe in Friedcat...he is being quiet right now because he is busy working on the next big thing.

Wait until he makes the next major announcement...you can be sure that it will be nothing short of "game changing".

Div's are great as they are, but I think they will come back to a new ATH once he is done withholding and new hardware is for sale.

[mechs]

Nah that's ok.  It'll be easy to spot
/handshake

Done
/handshake

[SOSLOVE868]

I firmly believe in Friedcat...he is being quiet right now because he is busy working on the next big thing.

Wait until he makes the next major announcement...you can be sure that it will be nothing short of "game changing".

Div's are great as they are, but I think they will come back to a new ATH once he is done withholding and new hardware is for sale.

Me,either believing in him too ..I think may be FC's 2 gen chips isn't as fast as others ,but I am quite confident that FC has superior cost advantage, due to low electricity and manufacturing cost in China.

I also believing that he has the ability to deploying more hashrate , the reason he hasn't, is because he is waiting for his 2 gen chips into mass production, for people who think this investment is suck , please quoted that even AM's dividend has dropped sharply, it still the asset paying highest dividend in the public exchange.  I bet once FC finally deployed his 1PH, we will see the share price may back to 4 again, for all people sale at 2BTC, that is not a smart move.

[Lohoris]

I'd consider starting a hedge fund, but I have this funny feeling that the moment I take someone else's money I'd immediately lose everything and feel like a prick.

Please let us know if you reconsider the idea, it would be quite nice to invest into a fund managed by you!

[Ytterbium]

I think all of these mining stocks are undervalued.  There just isn't enough money in the system to support the 'proper' prices. So, for now they remain immensely profitable.  Not enough people know about these stocks, or perhaps are concerned about putting their money in 'virtual' exchanges that theoretically give you no legal rights (according to the TOS)

[Jutarul]

I think all of these mining stocks are undervalued.  There just isn't enough money in the system to support the 'proper' prices. So, for now they remain immensely profitable.  Not enough people know about these stocks, or perhaps are concerned about putting their money in 'virtual' exchanges that theoretically give you no legal rights (according to the TOS)

I disagree. bitcoin as proper "money" has a price. Thus investment opportunities have to compete with the price of money.

Your perception has been altered by the fact that we live in an era of "cheap" credit, where banks and people "throw" money at any investment opportunity they can. The fiat money we have today doesn't have a price anymore. In fact, the price of fiat money is negative. In a commodity money system like bitcoin, the price of money is positive.

addendum: Actually there are strong indications that we live in a money price apartheid, where a selected group of individuals has access to money without a price (big inflation), while all others pay an ever increasing price for money (deflation).

[BitAddict]

I think all of these mining stocks are undervalued.  There just isn't enough money in the system to support the 'proper' prices. So, for now they remain immensely profitable.  Not enough people know about these stocks, or perhaps are concerned about putting their money in 'virtual' exchanges that theoretically give you no legal rights (according to the TOS)

I disagree. bitcoin as proper "money" has a price. Thus investment opportunities have to compete with the price of money.

Your perception has been altered by the fact that we live in an era of "cheap" credit, where banks and people "throw" money at any investment opportunity they can. The fiat money we have today doesn't have a price anymore. In fact, the price of fiat money is negative. In a commodity money system like bitcoin, the price of money is positive.

addendum: Actually there are strong indications that we live in a money price apartheid, where a selected group of individuals has access to money without a price (big inflation), while all others pay an ever increasing price for money (deflation).

Clap clap! This is the best argument I read while ago.  

Is hard to keep that in mind Jutarul, because we learnt economics in a inflation world. That's why is always nice to read things like this, too keep the mind fresh.

[lophie]

Guys what happened to this week's update?  , Did I miss something? I checked F.C. profile. Nothing..... 

[conv3rsion]

Guys what happened to this week's update?  , Did I miss something? I checked F.C. profile. Nothing.....  

He's working. At this point, a year after the IPO and 2000% growth, you either believe in Friedcat's abilities or you don't.

I don't want any more announcements until new shit is in place and / or ready to sell. I don't need weekly reassurance, and I don't want plans leaking to competitors. I like the opportunities provided by panic and capitulation. I want Friedcat doing what Friedcat does, which is executing better than anyone else in the game.

[Vycid]

I think all of these mining stocks are undervalued.  There just isn't enough money in the system to support the 'proper' prices. So, for now they remain immensely profitable.  Not enough people know about these stocks, or perhaps are concerned about putting their money in 'virtual' exchanges that theoretically give you no legal rights (according to the TOS)

I very strongly disagree with the argument that this has anything to do with how much money is around.

Half of the bitcoins that will ever exist have already been mined, I believe, leaving about 10M.

So, even if companies average 30% margin long term (I believe it will be much more competitive,  10-20%) it would only take ~3 million market cap across all companies to meet, if not exceed, fair value.

And very recently AM ALONE had a market cap of 2M at 5 BTC per share. So clearly there is plenty of money to get a company valued at whatever insane price you like, and it wouldn't take much to get it fairly valued either.

It is true that the market cap of something like Labcoin is very low, but they don't have a product yet. When it is clear which companies are going to be competitive,  we will see reasonable valuation.

In the short-term, difficulty overshoot and negative profitability may kill some of the little guys, so that's yet another reason to be cautious with your money.