ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[Vexual]

Like the one from September 2? Did you read it?

This one?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=286486.msg3065505#msg3065505

Of course. There is no useful information for shareholders here, except that the design of the blades was changed slightly.

Well I don't want to continue being cantankerous, but missing the idea that they are selling hardware is quite a large oversight.

[1715124850]

1715124850

[Vycid]

Like the one from September 2? Did you read it?

This one?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=286486.msg3065505#msg3065505

Of course. There is no useful information for shareholders here, except that the design of the blades was changed slightly.

Well I don't want to continue being cantankerous, but missing the idea that they are selling hardware is quite a large oversight.

I didn't think they'd stopped selling hardware - I thought resellers were taking preorders and the new blades were due in week or two. That isn't very important to my thesis, but I'm glad I know now, since I won't be surprised by the stronger dividend.

I did make a mistake, obviously.

[Vexual]

Like the one from September 2? Did you read it?

This one?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=286486.msg3065505#msg3065505

Of course. There is no useful information for shareholders here, except that the design of the blades was changed slightly.

He's willing to put the time in to announce the new products, but the shareholders don't need to know whether Gen 2 is on schedule, or how much FC's costs are per blade.

That would scare the bejeezus out of me if I was long.

I understand that Friedcat has no intention of releasing any information that is not set in stone. He knows the manufacturing game, and costs and schedules can change.
No pre-orders, no bullshit.
This part of his business model, I believe, is one of the core elements to ASICMINERS success.
Discretion in such a cutting edge market has also been an invaluable business practice.

[empoweoqwj]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=284843.msg3105051#msg3105051
I think it's a sign

AM Buying ad space, for first time? This is brilliant news.

Along with the remarkable current hash rate, which I can't believe is "luck", things are finally looking up again after a very average month or more.

Pity those people that sold under 3B a share. Pity even more those people that sold under 2.5B

[Vexual]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=284843.msg3105051#msg3105051
I think it's a sign

AM Buying ad space, for first time? This is brilliant news.

Along with the remarkable current hash rate, which I can't believe is "luck", things are finally looking up again after a very average month or more.

Pity those people that sold under 3B a share. Pity even more those people that sold under 2.5B

It's not the first time

[Vycid]

Like the one from September 2? Did you read it?

This one?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=286486.msg3065505#msg3065505

Of course. There is no useful information for shareholders here, except that the design of the blades was changed slightly.

He's willing to put the time in to announce the new products, but the shareholders don't need to know whether Gen 2 is on schedule, or how much FC's costs are per blade.

That would scare the bejeezus out of me if I was long.

I understand that Friedcat has no intention of releasing any information that is not set in stone. He knows the manufacturing game, and costs and schedules can change.
No pre-orders, no bullshit.
This part of his business model, I believe, is one of the core elements to ASICMINERS success.
Discretion in such a cutting edge market has also been an invaluable business practice.

I do appreciate that he has not engaged in the pre-order crap. There is a lot of intangible value there.

But not letting anyone know whether Gen 2 is on schedule or not... I do not see how that is defensible. Why should he not provide the information he has, and then provide updates if that information changes?

If he's got good news, I'd think he would share it. He was more talkative in the earlier days, which I really appreciated. I saw this pattern with Yifu... it's no guarantee of anything, but why the change?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2390687#msg2390687
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2013118#msg2013118
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1731913#msg1731913
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1571278#msg1571278
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=49840;sa=showPosts;start=140

[Vycid]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=284843.msg3105051#msg3105051
I think it's a sign

AM Buying ad space, for first time? This is brilliant news.

Along with the remarkable current hash rate, which I can't believe is "luck", things are finally looking up again after a very average month or more.

Pity those people that sold under 3B a share. Pity even more those people that sold under 2.5B

AD SPACE? HAIL FRIEDCAT, BUSINESS GENIUS.

Soon he shall rank among legends such as BFL.

[empoweoqwj]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=284843.msg3105051#msg3105051
I think it's a sign

AM Buying ad space, for first time? This is brilliant news.

Along with the remarkable current hash rate, which I can't believe is "luck", things are finally looking up again after a very average month or more.

Pity those people that sold under 3B a share. Pity even more those people that sold under 2.5B

It's not the first time

Stand corrected.

Still, be very interesting to know what they will be selling and when? Certainly won't be "pre-selling" like everyone else.

[lophie]

I'd never claim that I am never wrong, but I spend at lot of energy trying to correct myself when I am. Being right 51% of the time in any market is enough to become quite wealthy, and I bet I can do a lot better than 51% around here.

In Bitcoin world being right 51% of the time means you are right all the time. Hell you can even change the past and fudge everything up!  

[Vexual]

But not letting anyone know whether Gen 2 is on schedule or not... I do not see how that is defensible. Why should he not provide the information he has, and then provide updates if that information changes?

If he's got good news, I'd think he would share it. He was more talkative in the earlier days, which I really appreciated. I saw this pattern with Yifu... it's no guarantee of anything, but why the change?

I would say he has better things to do, and if you don't see how discretion is useful here, you should realise that this company is different to anything that has come before, and friedcat is writing the book on how to do it.

[Vycid]

But not letting anyone know whether Gen 2 is on schedule or not... I do not see how that is defensible. Why should he not provide the information he has, and then provide updates if that information changes?

If he's got good news, I'd think he would share it. He was more talkative in the earlier days, which I really appreciated. I saw this pattern with Yifu... it's no guarantee of anything, but why the change?

I would say he has better things to do, and if you don't see how discretion is useful here, you should realise that this company is different to anything that has come before, and friedcat is writing the book on how to do it.

Utter, utter bullshit. Look at all the times in the past, when he was still trying to get Gen 1 off the ground and was probably even BUSIER, when he still found the chance to update his shareholders.

Why has this type of information flow ceased?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2390687#msg2390687
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg2013118#msg2013118
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1731913#msg1731913
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.msg1571278#msg1571278
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=49840;sa=showPosts;start=140

[Vexual]

Are you aware of some of the security issues the avalon team experienced?

[Vycid]

Are you aware of some of the security issues the avalon team experienced?

You mean when someone visited Yifu's parents' house trying to get into contact with him?

Oh dear, I hope nobody has visited Friedcat's parents. It might derail the whole project.

Let me elaborate on my understanding of what happened - a buyer in China was seeking to get a contract on paper with the Avalon team. The Avalon team was not communicating, and the buyer, frustrated, went to Yifu's parents seeking a way to get in contact with him (this was over the line, I agree, but not necessarily malicious).

Yifu cites this as the reason they their chips are months late. I suspect these things have little or nothing to do with each other.

I am glad he takes his security seriously, but it is an excuse and nothing more. I wish he would assume responsibility.

Anyway, when people become less communicative in Bitcoin-land I consider it a warning sign. No guarantee, but I've seen it before. In the past, it seemed that Friedcat was always happy to share his news.

[Vexual]

Are you aware of some of the security issues the avalon team experienced?

You mean when someone visited Yifu's parents' house trying to get into contact with him?

Oh dear, I hope nobody has visited Friedcat's parents. It might derail the whole project.

Let me elaborate on my understanding of what happened - a buyer in China was seeking to get a contract on paper with the Avalon team. The Avalon team was not communicating, and the buyer, frustrated, went to Yifu's parents seeking a way to get in contact with him (this was over the line, I agree, but not necessarily malicious).

Yifu cites this as the reason they their chips are months late. I suspect these things have little or nothing to do with each other.

I am glad he takes his security seriously, but it is an excuse and nothing more. I wish he would assume responsibility.

Anyway, when people become less communicative in Bitcoin-land I consider it a warning sign. No guarantee, but I've seen it before. Friedcat was always happy to share his news before.

He also wasn't mining quite as much bitcoin then.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPVttJZfKWk   0:40

[Vycid]

Are you aware of some of the security issues the avalon team experienced?

You mean when someone visited Yifu's parents' house trying to get into contact with him?

Oh dear, I hope nobody has visited Friedcat's parents. It might derail the whole project.

Let me elaborate on my understanding of what happened - a buyer in China was seeking to get a contract on paper with the Avalon team. The Avalon team was not communicating, and the buyer, frustrated, went to Yifu's parents seeking a way to get in contact with him (this was over the line, I agree, but not necessarily malicious).

Yifu cites this as the reason they their chips are months late. I suspect these things have little or nothing to do with each other.

I am glad he takes his security seriously, but it is an excuse and nothing more. I wish he would assume responsibility.

Anyway, when people become less communicative in Bitcoin-land I consider it a warning sign. No guarantee, but I've seen it before. Friedcat was always happy to share his news before.

He also wasn't mining quite as much bitcoin then.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uPVttJZfKWk   0:40

FC wasn't mining as much earlier this year, you mean?

He still finds time to make posts, they just avoid important topics and are not very useful to shareholders.

This bears repeating, just in terms of how terse it is.

Update
There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.

[Vexual]

FC wasn't mining as much earlier this year, you mean?

He still finds time to make posts, they just avoid important topics and are not very useful to shareholders.

There are a multitude of reasons why some degree of discretion is advisable.

Project Timeline

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

Concise, and no bullshit.
How would giving more info than this help the company?
You might enjoy it for playing your little trading games, but it won't help ASICMINER.

[Vycid]

FC wasn't mining as much earlier this year, you mean?

He still finds time to make posts, they just avoid important topics and are not very useful to shareholders.

There are a multitude of reasons why some degree of discretion is advisable.

Project Timeline

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

Concise, and no bullshit.
How would giving more info than this help the company?
You might enjoy it for playing your little trading games, but it won't help ASICMINER.

Then why did he provide so much information in the past? Did you scroll through this?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=49840;sa=showPosts;start=140

It is a change in habit and there should be a lot of news. It strikes me as very odd.

Edit:

You'll like this. In MARCH, no less, when he was an already an order of magnitude more talkative than he is now.

But please give some more informations to the shareholders so they dont have to guess so much fruitlessly... i mean writing a post is a matter of some minutes only...

Of course. And indeed, sorry for the inefficiency of contact these days.

[freedomno1]

I'd never claim that I am never wrong, but I spend at lot of energy trying to correct myself when I am. Being right 51% of the time in any market is enough to become quite wealthy, and I bet I can do a lot better than 51% around here.

In Bitcoin world being right 51% of the time means you are right all the time. Hell you can even change the past and fudge everything up!  

Nice one Lophie

Friedcat works on what he does and aims to meets schedule and that's whats important that and we designated the Shareholder FAQ to direct all questions too so he doesn't reply much in the time between them and as an aside personal security is still important last time I checked.
Since it's September stuff is getting assembled I presume.
Still watches the schedule.

[Vexual]

FC wasn't mining as much earlier this year, you mean?

He still finds time to make posts, they just avoid important topics and are not very useful to shareholders.

There are a multitude of reasons why some degree of discretion is advisable.

Project Timeline

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

Concise, and no bullshit.
How would giving more info than this help the company?
You might enjoy it for playing your little trading games, but it won't help ASICMINER.

Then why did he provide so much information in the past? Did you scroll through this?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=49840;sa=showPosts;start=140

It is a change in habit and there should be a lot of news. It strikes me as very odd.

They must be very busy, and don't need to give competitors info.
And secondly, back in March, the company structure was different by the fact that they were directing all dividends to the initial public investors, and so in a way, they had more responsibility to shareholders then.
Now it's all gravy and they have no resonsibility to provide information just to satisfy traders on third party exchanges.

[Vycid]

FC wasn't mining as much earlier this year, you mean?

He still finds time to make posts, they just avoid important topics and are not very useful to shareholders.

There are a multitude of reasons why some degree of discretion is advisable.

Project Timeline

August-September: Deploy/sell all hashpower arriving in July and early August.
September-November: Deploy/sell the hashpower ordered at early July.
November-December: Experimental products of 2nd-gen chips and modular large-scale deployment solutions.

Concise, and no bullshit.
How would giving more info than this help the company?
You might enjoy it for playing your little trading games, but it won't help ASICMINER.

Then why did he provide so much information in the past? Did you scroll through this?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=49840;sa=showPosts;start=140

It is a change in habit and there should be a lot of news. It strikes me as very odd.

They must be very busy, and don't need to give competitors info.
And secondly, back in March, the company structure was different by the fact that they were directing all dividends to the initial public investors, and so in a way, they had more responsibility to shareholders then.
Now it's all gravy and they have no resonsibility to provide information just to satisfy traders on third party exchanges.

Perhaps you are right, and it is something innocuous, but you are definitely wrong not to entertain the possibility he is becoming less forthcoming with shareholder updates for the same reason we saw with Yifu.

This is a game of degrees, not wrong or right. Nobody knows with certainty. You can only evaluate your odds by examining many factors, and this is a factor I think people are overlooking (while getting excited about things that don't matter, like advertisements).