ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[deltanine]

Well... I've been invested in AM for approximately 3 weeks. I invested approx. 13k USD worth of bitcoin and it's now worth approx 21k USD worth of bitcoin taking the falling btc/usd exchange rate into account.

As long as you increase your btc value faster than the usd/btc exchange rate drops you are fine.

+1

I have been with AM since .4, where I spent all my btc to buy 12 whole shares!

I now have over 50, and I've cashed out btc several times to buy things and do stuff.

So, even though BTC lost 60% or whatever, my value has increased considerably.

Yes, well it seems that anyone invested in AM for a week or more has similar success stories of varying degrees.  Correlation does not always equal causation, however.  I think we should all be careful in convincing ourselves that this is a proper hedge against our BTC investments.

[freedomno1]

Well as long as investors do their research
Those that bought the wall at 2.5 Don't really care too much about a correction at 4
Newer investors though will need to balance yield risk and reward as the price keeps rising

[empoweoqwj]

Well as long as investors do their research
Those that bought the wall at 2.5 Don't really care too much about a correction at 4
Newer investors though will need to balance yield risk and reward as the price keeps rising

I bought the wall at 2.5, but I don't see a correction coming at 4, too much upward momentum at the moment which I think will carry it past 5.

People have been talking about "hedge against drop in price of BTC". I was wondering the same last night ...

Two scenarios I was considering:

1) BTC price against USD drops to $50 to $60. Would AM shares rise or drop on this news?
2) BTC price against USD rises to $130+ - would AM shares rise or drop on this news?

Any precedents in the last year e.g. what happend to AM share price when BTC bubble was (a) expanding and then (b) burst?

[dhenson]

In  both scenarios AM share price climbs.

Scenario A) USD exchange rate drops:  AM is a good hedge against the exchange rate.
Scenario B) USD exchange rate increases: AM share price x USD increase= insane profits. This will spur interest thus more investors increasing share price.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

Speculation
Price is rising where is Jutaruls second wall going to be 

5

The wall previous to 2.5 was at 0.5, there was nothing between them.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=148198.0

So if he's going in multiples of five... 12.5

No guarantee he'll follow that pattern though. If he's sensible he'll stop dropping so many all in one go at fixed price. He has the right to do so, it's a free market, but it's throwing BTC away.

[freedomno1]

Speculation
Price is rising where is Jutaruls second wall going to be  

5

The wall previous to 2.5 was at 0.5, there was nothing between them.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=148198.0

So if he's going in multiples of five... 12.5

No guarantee he'll follow that pattern though. If he's sensible he'll stop dropping so many all in one go at fixed price. He has the right to do so, it's a free market, but it's throwing BTC away.

Well hes pretty much a multi millionaire so whats throwing a few Btc  
Got to have 3-FA guard dogs by now
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=98239.0

For downward speculation
A victim of fulfilling it's own promises I like that spin
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=247168.0

[empoweoqwj]

In  both scenarios AM share price climbs.

Scenario A) USD exchange rate drops:  AM is a good hedge against the exchange rate.
Scenario B) USD exchange rate increases: AM share price x USD increase= insane profits. This will spur interest thus more investors increasing share price.

I can certainly buy (B) - increase $$$, everyone feels good, have more money to invest in something bitcoin related. AM is one of the best bets around.

Not sure about (A), how does AM hedge against the exchange rate?

[velacreations]

In  both scenarios AM share price climbs.

Scenario A) USD exchange rate drops:  AM is a good hedge against the exchange rate.
Scenario B) USD exchange rate increases: AM share price x USD increase= insane profits. This will spur interest thus more investors increasing share price.

I can certainly buy (B) - increase $$$, everyone feels good, have more money to invest in something bitcoin related. AM is one of the best bets around.

Not sure about (A), how does AM hedge against the exchange rate?

well, for me, AM has helped me acquire more bitcoins, so even though the value of each bitcoin has dropped, my overall value has increased, because i have a lot more bitcoisn than I used to, thanks to AM.

[velacreations]

For downward speculation
A victim of fulfilling it's own promises I like that spin
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=247168.0

that thread is hilarious.  a bunch of whiners complaining about the free market "oh, look, we can't compete anymore, boo hoo"

They are seriously sitting there saying, please don't grow and make so much money and improve your company, cause I want a piece of the pie, too.

What a bunch of crybabies.

[empoweoqwj]

In  both scenarios AM share price climbs.

Scenario A) USD exchange rate drops:  AM is a good hedge against the exchange rate.
Scenario B) USD exchange rate increases: AM share price x USD increase= insane profits. This will spur interest thus more investors increasing share price.

I can certainly buy (B) - increase $$$, everyone feels good, have more money to invest in something bitcoin related. AM is one of the best bets around.

Not sure about (A), how does AM hedge against the exchange rate?

well, for me, AM has helped me acquire more bitcoins, so even though the value of each bitcoin has dropped, my overall value has increased, because i have a lot more bitcoisn than I used to, thanks to AM.

I understand that, we are probably all in that particular boat. But my specific question relates to a sudden change in BTC/USD rate either way. Would AM price go up or down based on that change?

[deltanine]

In  both scenarios AM share price climbs.

Scenario A) USD exchange rate drops:  AM is a good hedge against the exchange rate.
Scenario B) USD exchange rate increases: AM share price x USD increase= insane profits. This will spur interest thus more investors increasing share price.

I can certainly buy (B) - increase $$$, everyone feels good, have more money to invest in something bitcoin related. AM is one of the best bets around.

Not sure about (A), how does AM hedge against the exchange rate?

well, for me, AM has helped me acquire more bitcoins, so even though the value of each bitcoin has dropped, my overall value has increased, because i have a lot more bitcoisn than I used to, thanks to AM.

I don't really see that as a hedge...  more like savvy investing on your part.

It doesn't make sense to me that the recent $10-$15 drop in BTC value had anything to do the rise in AM valuation.  People are seeing a positive track record from friedcat and beginning to pay attention to fundamentals when considering an investment in AM.

[bitfair]

In  both scenarios AM share price climbs.

Scenario A) USD exchange rate drops:  AM is a good hedge against the exchange rate.
Scenario B) USD exchange rate increases: AM share price x USD increase= insane profits. This will spur interest thus more investors increasing share price.

I can certainly buy (B) - increase $$$, everyone feels good, have more money to invest in something bitcoin related. AM is one of the best bets around.

Not sure about (A), how does AM hedge against the exchange rate?

well, for me, AM has helped me acquire more bitcoins, so even though the value of each bitcoin has dropped, my overall value has increased, because i have a lot more bitcoisn than I used to, thanks to AM.

I understand that, we are probably all in that particular boat. But my specific question relates to a sudden change in BTC/USD rate either way. Would AM price go up or down based on that change?

AM shares are not a "hedge" against BTCUSD in any sense of the word.

An increase in BTCUSD has two contradictory effects on AM shares: (1) it lowers operational costs, (2) it attracts more competition. Which of the effects will dominate share price at any particular time depends on many factors.

[velacreations]

I don't really see that as a hedge...  more like savvy investing on your part.

well, possibly, but the fact remains that as BTC's value dropped, my investment in AM has saved my overall value.  That's why I see it as a hedge, and any stock that performs well would do the same.

[empoweoqwj]

I don't really see that as a hedge...  more like savvy investing on your part.

well, possibly, but the fact remains that as BTC's value dropped, my investment in AM has saved my overall value.  That's why I see it as a hedge, and any stock that performs well would do the same.

True. Just most people believe the two aren't connected i.e. most people believe AM's share price rise is not due to drop in BTC/USD but other factors.

So you have indeed protected the overall value of your portfolio by investing in AM. So have I. It would only be a hedge I think it if was "understood" a lower BTC/USD price would produce a higher AM share value, and vice versa. I'm not sure either is true, hence its not a hedge.

[velacreations]

True. Just most people believe the two aren't connected i.e. most people believe AM's share price rise is not due to drop in BTC/USD but other factors.

So you have indeed protected the overall value of your portfolio by investing in AM. So have I. It would only be a hedge I think it if was "understood" a lower BTC/USD price would produce a higher AM share value, and vice versa. I'm not sure either is true, hence its not a hedge.

right, I agree with what you are saying.  It's basically a lucky hedge, not a real one.

[velacreations]

I posted in another thread, but I should post here that I am buying AM shares at 3.7, if anyone wants to sell. 

[freedomno1]

For downward speculation
A victim of fulfilling it's own promises I like that spin
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=247168.0

that thread is hilarious.  a bunch of whiners complaining about the free market "oh, look, we can't compete anymore, boo hoo"

They are seriously sitting there saying, please don't grow and make so much money and improve your company, cause I want a piece of the pie, too.

What a bunch of crybabies.

CSI moment
Well we did locate a Grilled cat
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=247168.msg2622424#msg2622424


___
It's looks like its chilling

[Pierre]

I posted in another thread, but I should post here that I am buying AM shares at 3.7, if anyone wants to sell. 

Best I can do is 4.6

[dhenson]

I posted in another thread, but I should post here that I am buying AM shares at 3.7, if anyone wants to sell. 

Best I can do is 4.6

I'd sell at 6.  Anything lower than that is -EV.

[freedomno1]

I'm still trying to make a good guess at network growth relative to ASICminer share price based on short term and long term estimates mumble XD
Darn holders