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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939883 times)
T.Stuart
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December 31, 2013, 05:41:38 PM
 #1081


If we are to still retest new lows, this 800~ sell point is a beautiful number to double your coins buying back at 380-450.


Try bartering with the whales over at the Whale Temple!  Grin

                                                                               
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.◆ ◆ ◆ ONE TOKEN TO MOVE ANYTHING ANYWHERE ◆ ◆ ◆.
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piramida
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December 31, 2013, 05:51:50 PM
 #1082


At the very least it indicates some big fish are pretty comfortable sellingbuying at these prices. Maybe it's because they know the 775 support is too strong, but just maybe it could also mean a strong move downup is coming.



FTFY, makes even more sense now.

i am satoshi
lebing
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December 31, 2013, 05:59:12 PM
 #1083

I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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December 31, 2013, 06:07:23 PM
 #1084

I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Who's the long term-bear? Me? Am not !

Just not too confident about our current movement up and the behavior behind it. Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..



T.Stuart
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December 31, 2013, 06:08:54 PM
 #1085

Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..

Ups and downs yes... but a leg down no in my opinion

                                                                               
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.◆ ◆ ◆ ONE TOKEN TO MOVE ANYTHING ANYWHERE ◆ ◆ ◆.
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notme
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December 31, 2013, 06:11:23 PM
 #1086

I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Who's the long term-bear? Me? Am not !

Just not too confident about our current movement up and the behavior behind it. Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..



I've always been a turbobull, but even I tend to agree here.  We have a clear 5 wave A down from the high, and we are somewhere in wave B.  C down still to come before this corrective sequence is completed.  Bitcoin's a honey badger though, so often the C waves are terribly weak.  If that's the case, buy buy buy when C comes in a few days/weeks.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
Voodah
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December 31, 2013, 06:16:07 PM
 #1087

I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Who's the long term-bear? Me? Am not !

Just not too confident about our current movement up and the behavior behind it. Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..



I've always been a turbobull, but even I tend to agree here.  We have a clear 5 wave A down from the high, and we are somewhere in wave B.  C down still to come before this corrective sequence is completed.  Bitcoin's a honey badger though, so often the C waves are terribly weak.  If that's the case, buy buy buy when C comes in a few days/weeks.

Yes, this is very possible. A weak C wave into the 600's leaving all 400-500 orders unfulfilled and burning.

Bears may be hiding during this uptrend we got going on, but I know a lot of people are still waiting for those 400 coins.
lebing
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December 31, 2013, 06:21:42 PM
 #1088

I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Who's the long term-bear? Me? Am not !

Just not too confident about our current movement up and the behavior behind it. Still think another leg down is in order before we go for new highs..





Not you - previous page - "bitcoin bear"...  Huh

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
T.Stuart
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December 31, 2013, 07:21:11 PM
 #1089

This is play money from any newbie that bought $4000 just 11 months back (me included).

Selling at $1200-$800 range 20-15 days ago at the first rebound was a pretty safe move for anyone willing to increase their Bitcoin stash, but now? I'm not so sure anymore.

At least im my case i will not risk more than 10-15%, just in case it drops sharp once more, you know... everyone is expecting to rebuy at 380-450, keep waiting....

Not quite sure where you are at, sorry for my misunderstanding. Do you mean you are waiting to buy in? What is your ratio of fiat to Bitcoin?

                                                                               
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Voodah
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December 31, 2013, 07:26:33 PM
 #1090

Since when are considered the ones dumping 400-600 coins "big fishes"? This is play money from any newbie that bought $4000 just 11 months back (me included).

Selling at $1200-$800 range 20-15 days ago at the first rebound was a pretty safe move for anyone willing to increase their Bitcoin stash, but now? I'm not so sure anymore.

At least im my case i will not risk more than 10-15%, just in case it drops sharp once more, you know... everyone is expecting to rebuy at 380-450, keep waiting....

I doesn't matter how much you bought it for.

600 coins today are roughly half a million dollars.

So what you're telling me is that ~450K USD is noob play money, and that newbies like yourself trade that amount on a daily basis??

Are you serious?

Show me some logs of your orders with your 400K USD play money...

Don't be ridiculous. Of course 500 coins was nothing on Jan 1 2013; the same does not stand today.

Back then we had 5-8k walls as the normal, now it's a fraction of that. Times change.

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December 31, 2013, 07:27:00 PM
 #1091

You
Play
To Win
The Game
Damn you. You made me lose The Game. More than year not losing.
arepo
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this statement is false


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December 31, 2013, 09:05:35 PM
 #1092

You
Play
To Win
The Game
Damn you. You made me lose The Game. More than year not losing.

the only winning move is not to play

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
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January 01, 2014, 10:33:59 AM
 #1093

I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.
I see a possible trend of weakened bubbles. In 2011 we went up 40x. In April 20x. Now it was 10x. The number is seemingly halving every time (not counting the micro-bubbles in-between), and so 5x for the next ride isn't entirely unreasonable.

I agree with this. The "boom" cycles have consistently been smaller since 2011, and so the corresponding deflation phases after the peaks. That makes sense: volatility is expected to diminish as adoption grows.

If the above trend holds, next "boom" cycle should take us to around 5x-7x.

Finally, I'd add that I expect the boom and bust cycles to be smaller and smaller but much closer in time. Just the market adjusting itself...

John999
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January 01, 2014, 02:24:21 PM
 #1094

We might have a double top (especially visible on Gox chart) but it is still too early to confirm.
T.Stuart
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January 01, 2014, 02:31:13 PM
 #1095

We might have a double top (especially visible on Gox chart) but it is still too early to confirm.

To continue the positive uptrend we shouldn't be above $830 by Friday or we are too high. But this might look vaguely like a double top when it is actually more relevant as a continuation of the uptrend.

                                                                               
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.◆ ◆ ◆ ONE TOKEN TO MOVE ANYTHING ANYWHERE ◆ ◆ ◆.
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January 01, 2014, 02:41:35 PM
 #1096

We might have a double top (especially visible on Gox chart) but it is still too early to confirm.

To continue the positive uptrend we shouldn't be above $830 by Friday or we are too high. But this might look vaguely like a double top when it is actually more relevant as a continuation of the uptrend.

Yes if it is actually a double top in formation we will see a drop pretty soon (today or tomorrow). If not then it was a false signal.
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January 01, 2014, 05:49:17 PM
 #1097

I was going to take the time to write a proper response, but then realized how ridiculous it is to be a long term bear in bitcoin. Seriously, wtf?

Wow, I stumped lebing, the fundamental commander? Tongue

I am not a perma-bear! I am the voice of reason. A realist, if you will.. I try to counter every claim of over-the-top bulls that "bitcoin can only rise, because Bitcoin". If I were a perma-bear, I would be a thread starter of doom and gloom topics, spreading FUD flavored frosting on the bitcointalk cake. Smiley
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January 01, 2014, 08:10:11 PM
 #1098

I've seen this prediction many times, but not sure why exactly people are choosing this number. In 2013, we went up 60x. Why would we only go up 7x next year? IMO if anything the curve gets steeper as the monkeys hope on board.
I see a possible trend of weakened bubbles. In 2011 we went up 40x. In April 20x. Now it was 10x. The number is seemingly halving every time (not counting the micro-bubbles in-between), and so 5x for the next ride isn't entirely unreasonable.

I agree with this. The "boom" cycles have consistently been smaller since 2011, and so the corresponding deflation phases after the peaks. That makes sense: volatility is expected to diminish as adoption grows.

If the above trend holds, next "boom" cycle should take us to around 5x-7x.

Finally, I'd add that I expect the boom and bust cycles to be smaller and smaller but much closer in time. Just the market adjusting itself...

Yes, this is true and confirmed by the Mistery Chart post.
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January 03, 2014, 01:42:23 PM
 #1099



This fits the bulltrap scenario

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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January 03, 2014, 05:38:09 PM
 #1100



This fits the bulltrap scenario

Seriously, what does NOT fit the bill trap scenario? People have been saying this the entire time we've been going up.
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