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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919641 times)
samurai1200
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January 05, 2014, 10:18:05 AM
 #1161

Yes, slightly broken. Meaning he could sneeze and the angle of the upper bound could change, making the wedge not broken at all.

Channels are an indication of trend and sentiment, not trading law.

Hodl for the longest tiem.

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arepo
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January 05, 2014, 10:34:19 AM
 #1162

Yes, slightly broken. Meaning he could sneeze and the angle of the upper bound could change, making the wedge not broken at all.

Channels are an indication of trend and sentiment, not trading law.

this. in more empirical terms, the price is still within the margin of error of the wedge shape. as i mentioned elsewhere, these shapes are drawn using data sets that often contain outliers so it's tricky drawing conclusions sometimes.

--arepo

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zby
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January 05, 2014, 11:02:36 AM
 #1163

Yes, slightly broken. Meaning he could sneeze and the angle of the upper bound could change, making the wedge not broken at all.

Channels are an indication of trend and sentiment, not trading law.

this. in more empirical terms, the price is still within the margin of error of the wedge shape. as i mentioned elsewhere, these shapes are drawn using data sets that often contain outliers so it's tricky drawing conclusions sometimes.

--arepo

I tend to interpret it in terms of probability, or fuzzy logic. Beside the fact that it is a probabilistic process, and that there are many exchanges with slightly different patterns and fuzzy arbitrage opportunities, treating it as binary would also be too easy to manipulate.
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January 05, 2014, 01:38:23 PM
 #1164

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream" Wink

Besides, from a purely historical point of view it is highly unlikely we've seen a trend reversal and far more probable this is just a major bulltrap, as has happened in the majority of bubble pops previously. Not saying I'm bound to be correct (this is bitcoin we're talking about after all Grin) but wouldn't it make more sense to stick with historically established logic rather than jump to the highly optimistic assumption that "it's different this time"?

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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January 05, 2014, 01:41:15 PM
 #1165

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream" Wink

Besides, from a purely historical point of view it is highly unlikely we've seen a trend reversal and far more probable this is just a major bulltrap, as has happened in the majority of bubble pops previously. Not saying I'm bound to be correct (this is bitcoin we're talking about after all Grin) but wouldn't it make more sense to stick with historically established logic rather than jump to the highly optimistic assumption that "it's different this time"?

My speculative analysis - in two days you will be certain that the bulltrap is in fact a big bull market!  Smiley

                                                                               
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Ivanhoe
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January 05, 2014, 01:41:35 PM
Last edit: January 05, 2014, 02:00:21 PM by Ivanhoe
 #1166

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream" Wink

Or as we say in Amsterdam: "Don't sell the pelt before you shoot the bear"

A very relevant one haha.

http://nl.wiktionary.org/wiki/de_huid_niet_verkopen_voor_de_beer_geschoten_is
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January 05, 2014, 01:42:43 PM
 #1167

 Cheesy
I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream" Wink

Or as we say in Amsterdam: "Don't sell the pelt before you shoot the bear"

A very relevant one haha.

 Cheesy

                                                                               
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wobber
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January 05, 2014, 01:46:33 PM
 #1168

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream" Wink

Besides, from a purely historical point of view it is highly unlikely we've seen a trend reversal and far more probable this is just a major bulltrap, as has happened in the majority of bubble pops previously. Not saying I'm bound to be correct (this is bitcoin we're talking about after all Grin) but wouldn't it make more sense to stick with historically established logic rather than jump to the highly optimistic assumption that "it's different this time"?

You mean this:



resembles this?


If you hate me, you can spam me here: 19wdQNKjnATkgXvpzmSrkSYhJtuJWb8mKs
T.Stuart
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January 05, 2014, 01:52:18 PM
 #1169

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream" Wink

Besides, from a purely historical point of view it is highly unlikely we've seen a trend reversal and far more probable this is just a major bulltrap, as has happened in the majority of bubble pops previously. Not saying I'm bound to be correct (this is bitcoin we're talking about after all Grin) but wouldn't it make more sense to stick with historically established logic rather than jump to the highly optimistic assumption that "it's different this time"?

You mean this:



resembles this?



But the institutional investors are coming! The public is coming! You've got parts of this notorious chart back to front! Not the right comparison I'm afraid!  Smiley

                                                                               
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January 05, 2014, 01:56:44 PM
Last edit: January 05, 2014, 03:56:08 PM by JustAnotherSheep
 #1170

My speculative analysis - in two days you will be certain that the bulltrap is in fact a big bull market!  Smiley
I would like nothing more, as then I could buy in again with certainty that my money will grow rather than suddenly pop. Sure, I will have lost some potential profit from selling at 800, but overall I'm doing far better in bull markets where my fiat keeps rising in value, while in bear markets my main goal is increasing my bitcoin holdings by attempting to catch floors.

However, I prefer to rely on TA, no matter how fuzzy and probabilistic it is, rather than optimistic sentiment, especially when dealing with money.

Or as we say in Amsterdam: "Don't sell the pelt before you shoot the bear"

A very relevant one haha.
lmao, brilliant

You mean this:

resembles this?

Na, historically bitcoin doesn't follow that chart completely, as the price has a tendency to reach floor or at least close to it before commencing the major trap rise.

Unless you count 2011 Grin

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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January 05, 2014, 02:05:41 PM
 #1171

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream" Wink

Besides, from a purely historical point of view it is highly unlikely we've seen a trend reversal and far more probable this is just a major bulltrap, as has happened in the majority of bubble pops previously. Not saying I'm bound to be correct (this is bitcoin we're talking about after all Grin) but wouldn't it make more sense to stick with historically established logic rather than jump to the highly optimistic assumption that "it's different this time"?

You mean this:



resembles this?



The April bubble was just a blip. The institutional investor phase is now. The bigger bubble is yet to come.
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January 05, 2014, 02:07:05 PM
 #1172

I still see the rising wedge on gox, so I wouldn't get excited yet. Or as the Swedish expression goes; "you shouldn't shout hey until you've crossed the stream" Wink

Besides, from a purely historical point of view it is highly unlikely we've seen a trend reversal and far more probable this is just a major bulltrap, as has happened in the majority of bubble pops previously. Not saying I'm bound to be correct (this is bitcoin we're talking about after all Grin) but wouldn't it make more sense to stick with historically established logic rather than jump to the highly optimistic assumption that "it's different this time"?

You mean this:



resembles this?



The April bubble was just a blip. The institutional investor phase is now. The bigger bubble is yet to come.

I predict Hodling will all but annihilate the first sell off!  Grin

                                                                               
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.◆ ◆ ◆ ONE TOKEN TO MOVE ANYTHING ANYWHERE ◆ ◆ ◆.
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January 05, 2014, 03:38:15 PM
 #1173

so are we in the midst of a bear market? long and painful, maybe get us down to the $400's?

we are going much lower than that

You are wrong. We are much higher than that again.
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January 05, 2014, 03:39:46 PM
 #1174

$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

Unfortunately you are wrong again. It is bad news for the bearish case.
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this statement is false


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January 05, 2014, 03:42:09 PM
 #1175

$830 is continuing to act as massive resistance. This is good news for the bearish case.

Unfortunately you are wrong again. It is bad news for the bearish case.

that was from forever ago, dude, don't be digging up people's dirt like that. Undecided

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January 05, 2014, 03:49:28 PM
 #1176

Now that is what I call an upside breakout

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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January 05, 2014, 03:54:10 PM
 #1177

Now that is what I call an upside breakout

It goes to show that you should be very careful trusting an "expert" in a fledgling market like this.

I openly went against a TA professional who said three days ago there was a 1 in 100 chance of us breaking up from around $880.

Imagine how many people listen to that: "1:100 from an expert? No way I'm going against that!"

But his method didn't work because he wasn't factoring in simple stuff that anyone can think about. He was stuck on his "new moons" and wedgies!

                                                                               
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.◆ ◆ ◆ ONE TOKEN TO MOVE ANYTHING ANYWHERE ◆ ◆ ◆.
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managarmr420
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January 05, 2014, 04:07:26 PM
 #1178

What was that that just happened? it shot up $100 in no time at all, did we just test $900?
arepo
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this statement is false


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January 05, 2014, 04:13:06 PM
 #1179

Now that is what I call an upside breakout

It goes to show that you should be very careful trusting an "expert" in a fledgling market like this.

I openly went against a TA professional who said three days ago there was a 1 in 100 chance of us breaking up from around $880.

Imagine how many people listen to that: "1:100 from an expert? No way I'm going against that!"

But his method didn't work because he wasn't factoring in simple stuff that anyone can think about. He was stuck on his "new moons" and wedgies!

shut up and due your due diligence. who gives a shit if someone calls themselves a "professional" their work should speak for them. i don't want some random guy's bad predictions affecting your opinion of an entire practice, especially one of which i myself am a practitioner.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
18N9md2G1oA89kdBuiyJFrtJShuL5iDWDz
T.Stuart
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January 05, 2014, 04:15:12 PM
 #1180

Now that is what I call an upside breakout

It goes to show that you should be very careful trusting an "expert" in a fledgling market like this.

I openly went against a TA professional who said three days ago there was a 1 in 100 chance of us breaking up from around $880.

Imagine how many people listen to that: "1:100 from an expert? No way I'm going against that!"

But his method didn't work because he wasn't factoring in simple stuff that anyone can think about. He was stuck on his "new moons" and wedgies!

shut up and due your due diligence. who gives a shit if someone calls themselves a "professional" their work should speak for them. i don't want some random guy's bad predictions affecting your opinion of an entire practice, especially one of which i myself am a practitioner.

--arepo

If I understand it correctly you have been very sceptical of the last couple of weeks yourself though, haven't you? I ask again: at what point will you accept that your trendlines have been broken and it is time to re-plot your charts?

EDIT: I also said be "very careful" - that does not tarnish your profession. In all my posts I've been careful to point out that what many analysts seem to be doing is applying methods that would normally be sound, to a particular moment in Bitcoin's history where new factors are swaying things out of your patterns.

                                                                               
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.◆ ◆ ◆ ONE TOKEN TO MOVE ANYTHING ANYWHERE ◆ ◆ ◆.
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