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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 939883 times)
Miz4r
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January 05, 2014, 04:23:16 PM
 #1161

What was that that just happened? it shot up $100 in no time at all, did we just test $900?

That was just bitcoin shitting on another bearish wedge. Tongue

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January 05, 2014, 04:26:03 PM
 #1162

If I understand it correctly you have been very sceptical of the last couple of weeks yourself though, haven't you? I ask again: at what point will you accept that your trendlines have been broken and it is time to re-plot your charts?

what do you mean by skeptical? and i apologize for my brutish language i'm running on very little sleep. i mean no disrespect to you it just bothers me when comments are made that give practitioners of TA a bad name, in general.

and of course no trendlines have been broken at all. we've been riding the same bullish moving support since the $600 consolidation. however, now we are dizzyingly high above the trendline and so the market is being a little irrational right now, i'm not skeptical of what is, i'm cautious of what's to come. blind bullish sentiment is not a good trading technique Tongue i'm pretty sure you're mistaking a balanced head for skepticism Cheesy

--arepo

yeah, I'm going to half-defend you and half-ridicule you Cheesy

Lot's of respect for your TA in general (told you that already earlier), but in the past week or so, you've been a bit too focused on the "duty" of the market to continue the correction -- in reality, even if the likelihood of a longer post-ATH correction was rather high, and still is, perhaps, it's important to keep your eyes open for the possibility that this time it *is* indeed somewhat different.

EDIT: though for fairness sake, you have been pretty objective IMO. didn't make a dumb price call, like e.g. rpietla with his "buying at prices above 600 is not worth it" mantra, based on his misunderstanding of a linear regression model.

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January 05, 2014, 04:33:18 PM
 #1163

If I understand it correctly you have been very sceptical of the last couple of weeks yourself though, haven't you? I ask again: at what point will you accept that your trendlines have been broken and it is time to re-plot your charts?

what do you mean by skeptical? and i apologize for my brutish language i'm running on very little sleep. i mean no disrespect to you it just bothers me when comments are made that give practitioners of TA a bad name, in general.

and of course no trendlines have been broken at all. we've been riding the same bullish moving support since the $600 consolidation. however, now we are dizzyingly high above the trendline and so the market is being a little irrational right now, i'm not skeptical of what is, i'm cautious of what's to come. blind bullish sentiment is not a good trading technique Tongue i'm pretty sure you're mistaking a balanced head for skepticism Cheesy

--arepo

By sceptical I mean your daily pointing to a final capitulation to complete the downtrend.

No offense taken. I am myself tired but mainly from paying too much attention to Bitcoin every day!  Smiley

Actually I ask myself why I bother writing these recent rambles. It just seems quite clear to me that we are likely seeing the beginning of the final leg up, the last wave, the big bubble, the S-curve, whatever some might like to call it. Is Bitcoin ready? I don't know. But I don't think people care. And there have been many similar stories with other Internet phenomenon. But this one really is a huge beast which will go fast now.

You are a balanced person and I am sure you will say it is too early to call. But I have the strongest feeling that I've had for a long time about this. And it's not just my opinion - the circumstantial evidence is there. So I feel like I should preach "Hodling" because nothing else makes as much sense!  Cheesy I know I'm annoying you now!  Grin

                                                                               
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January 05, 2014, 04:38:23 PM
 #1164

If I understand it correctly you have been very sceptical of the last couple of weeks yourself though, haven't you? I ask again: at what point will you accept that your trendlines have been broken and it is time to re-plot your charts?

what do you mean by skeptical? and i apologize for my brutish language i'm running on very little sleep. i mean no disrespect to you it just bothers me when comments are made that give practitioners of TA a bad name, in general.

and of course no trendlines have been broken at all. we've been riding the same bullish moving support since the $600 consolidation. however, now we are dizzyingly high above the trendline and so the market is being a little irrational right now, i'm not skeptical of what is, i'm cautious of what's to come. blind bullish sentiment is not a good trading technique Tongue i'm pretty sure you're mistaking a balanced head for skepticism Cheesy

--arepo

By sceptical I mean your daily pointing to a final capitulation to complete the downtrend.

No offense taken. I am myself tired but mainly from paying too much attention to Bitcoin every day!  Smiley

Actually I ask myself why I bother writing these recent rambles. It just seems quite clear to me that we are likely seeing the beginning of the final leg up, the last wave, the big bubble, the S-curve, whatever some might like to call it. Is Bitcoin ready? I don't know. But I don't think people care. And there have been many similar stories with other Internet phenomenon. But this one really is a huge beast which will go fast now.

You are a balanced person and I am sure you will say it is too early to call. But I have the strongest feeling that I've had for a long time about this. And it's not just my opinion - the circumstantial evidence is there. So I feel like I should preach "Hodling" because nothing else makes as much sense!  Cheesy I know I'm annoying you now!  Grin

I hope you are right, but you just described sentiment at the top of wave B perfectly.  If that is the case, just remember to not get shaken out in wave C.

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T.Stuart
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January 05, 2014, 04:39:57 PM
 #1165

If I understand it correctly you have been very sceptical of the last couple of weeks yourself though, haven't you? I ask again: at what point will you accept that your trendlines have been broken and it is time to re-plot your charts?

what do you mean by skeptical? and i apologize for my brutish language i'm running on very little sleep. i mean no disrespect to you it just bothers me when comments are made that give practitioners of TA a bad name, in general.

and of course no trendlines have been broken at all. we've been riding the same bullish moving support since the $600 consolidation. however, now we are dizzyingly high above the trendline and so the market is being a little irrational right now, i'm not skeptical of what is, i'm cautious of what's to come. blind bullish sentiment is not a good trading technique Tongue i'm pretty sure you're mistaking a balanced head for skepticism Cheesy

--arepo

By sceptical I mean your daily pointing to a final capitulation to complete the downtrend.

No offense taken. I am myself tired but mainly from paying too much attention to Bitcoin every day!  Smiley

Actually I ask myself why I bother writing these recent rambles. It just seems quite clear to me that we are likely seeing the beginning of the final leg up, the last wave, the big bubble, the S-curve, whatever some might like to call it. Is Bitcoin ready? I don't know. But I don't think people care. And there have been many similar stories with other Internet phenomenon. But this one really is a huge beast which will go fast now.

You are a balanced person and I am sure you will say it is too early to call. But I have the strongest feeling that I've had for a long time about this. And it's not just my opinion - the circumstantial evidence is there. So I feel like I should preach "Hodling" because nothing else makes as much sense!  Cheesy I know I'm annoying you now!  Grin

I hope you are right, but you just described sentiment at the top of wave B perfectly.  If that is the case, just remember to not get shaken out in wave C.

Thanks for the tip!

                                                                               
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████████████████████▄                ▄█████▄     ▀█████▄                 ▄█████▀
              ▀▀█████▄             ▄█████████▄     ▀█████▄             ▄█████▀
                 █████▌          ▄█████▀ ▀█████▄     ▀█████▄         ▄█████▀
                 ▐█████        ▄█████▀     ▀█████▄     ▀█████▄     ▄█████▀
                 █████▌      ▄█████▀         ▀█████▄     ▀█████▄ ▄█████▀
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                                    ▀███████▀
                                      ▀███▀
                                        ▀
.
▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔
.◆ ◆ ◆ ONE TOKEN TO MOVE ANYTHING ANYWHERE ◆ ◆ ◆.
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2017orso
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January 05, 2014, 05:36:07 PM
 #1166

Don't want to quote multiple etc.  About the replies to my previous post:

windjc - yes, that is what I basically saying.  sure sometimes it's accurate, but so is guessing.  it's the times of relative saturation that it should be more predictive, however, those are times when there is the least volatility as well so it's largely a moot point.

honeybadger - manipulation and self-fulfilling is legitimate, those whales are long-term bulls however, so do you apply a discount to the probability of supposed down movements and increased likelihood of upward movements in the TA analysis? 

There are so many factors to consider in the Bitcoin market, such that trying to apply TA for predictive power is largely useless. The points mentioned are indeed fundamentals, and it's irrelevant, because TA should encapsulate fundamentals, or it's not doing its job very well.

The point about self-fulfilling prophecies is also not as adequate in this environment.  Again, it's just beginning the saturation process.  So, you have TA followers, blind new buyers awaiting verification to buy their stash and move on with their lives, and whales manipulating the market with bullish intent.  A TA seller awaiting a lower price back down to the .236 fib, will very quickly be forced to rebuy back up at the .7 fib because 200 new people were able to enter the market that day with propulsion aided by the overseeing whales who still control a large % of the coins in this still thin market.  Maybe if they wait longer then anticipated they may find cheaper coins, but they'll also be stressing out, wasting time staring at charts, and are then guessing and gambling.

Just saying, TA followers are playing a very dangerous game, there's a lot more to consider then a chart, fibs, EW, etc, and to base your decisions only on those considerations in this market is not even close to doing the same in the forex market.  Here, I would guess there is a level of magnitude less predictive power.  Perhaps when we're at $300k/coin and hover in a 6 figure range for a few years.  But I mean, it's like looking at the gold market in 1940, EW analysis applied then would have essentially been guessing, now sure you can retroactively apply dense counts and have some success today.

Pros/"Pros" have their feeling of mojo, that's cool, gl.  This is more for newbs here, just understand there's a lot more to consider, and a lot at stake.

When Gavin was asked what he was most surprised to learn through Bitcoin, he replied that people will trade anything with a price on it. 
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January 05, 2014, 07:10:53 PM
 #1167

If I understand it correctly you have been very sceptical of the last couple of weeks yourself though, haven't you? I ask again: at what point will you accept that your trendlines have been broken and it is time to re-plot your charts?

what do you mean by skeptical? and i apologize for my brutish language i'm running on very little sleep. i mean no disrespect to you it just bothers me when comments are made that give practitioners of TA a bad name, in general.

and of course no trendlines have been broken at all. we've been riding the same bullish moving support since the $600 consolidation. however, now we are dizzyingly high above the trendline and so the market is being a little irrational right now, i'm not skeptical of what is, i'm cautious of what's to come. blind bullish sentiment is not a good trading technique Tongue i'm pretty sure you're mistaking a balanced head for skepticism Cheesy

--arepo

By sceptical I mean your daily pointing to a final capitulation to complete the downtrend.

No offense taken. I am myself tired but mainly from paying too much attention to Bitcoin every day!  Smiley

Actually I ask myself why I bother writing these recent rambles. It just seems quite clear to me that we are likely seeing the beginning of the final leg up, the last wave, the big bubble, the S-curve, whatever some might like to call it. Is Bitcoin ready? I don't know. But I don't think people care. And there have been many similar stories with other Internet phenomenon. But this one really is a huge beast which will go fast now.

You are a balanced person and I am sure you will say it is too early to call. But I have the strongest feeling that I've had for a long time about this. And it's not just my opinion - the circumstantial evidence is there. So I feel like I should preach "Hodling" because nothing else makes as much sense!  Cheesy I know I'm annoying you now!  Grin

I hope you are right, but you just described sentiment at the top of wave B perfectly.  If that is the case, just remember to not get shaken out in wave C.


haha i can only chuckle and wait Grin

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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arepo
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January 05, 2014, 07:14:56 PM
 #1168


yeah, I'm going to half-defend you and half-ridicule you Cheesy

Lot's of respect for your TA in general (told you that already earlier), but in the past week or so, you've been a bit too focused on the "duty" of the market to continue the correction -- in reality, even if the likelihood of a longer post-ATH correction was rather high, and still is, perhaps, it's important to keep your eyes open for the possibility that this time it *is* indeed somewhat different.

i think it says something that you respect my technical analysis but can't stomach my mid-term bearishesness... not even that! a capitulation event is not a downtrend, it's a cusp. if you HODL you'll barely notice it. i'm just calling it like it is. but i've been getting tons of flak because of market sentiment right now, which, ironically enough as notme points out, is evidence as well.

--arepo

this sentence has fifteen words, seventy-four letters, four commas, one hyphen, and a period.
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samurai1200
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January 05, 2014, 07:59:20 PM
 #1169

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

Hodl for the longest tiem.

Use it or lose it: http://coinmap.org/
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January 05, 2014, 08:08:05 PM
 #1170


yeah, I'm going to half-defend you and half-ridicule you Cheesy

Lot's of respect for your TA in general (told you that already earlier), but in the past week or so, you've been a bit too focused on the "duty" of the market to continue the correction -- in reality, even if the likelihood of a longer post-ATH correction was rather high, and still is, perhaps, it's important to keep your eyes open for the possibility that this time it *is* indeed somewhat different.

i think it says something that you respect my technical analysis but can't stomach my mid-term bearishesness... not even that! a capitulation event is not a downtrend, it's a cusp. if you HODL you'll barely notice it. i'm just calling it like it is. but i've been getting tons of flak because of market sentiment right now, which, ironically enough as notme points out, is evidence as well.

--arepo

Let me be clear: there's absolutely nothing wrong with being bearish. I'm not so delusionally positive about BTC that I don't see the potential for a medium or longer term downtrend.

But there *is* something wrong with being bearish when the situation changed, and the outlook is much more balanced between continued correction and trend reversal upwards. Which is, IMO, where we are now.

Semantics, though. Wasn't my intention to attack you.

EDIT: this whole discussion is a bit tricky without price points, though. If "capitulation event" means revisiting 850, sure, I can see that happen. But right now there's still a significant number of people hoping for sub-500 coins, including those poor sods who "follow" rpietila and his log chart linear regression ideas... *That* would be a real capitulation, and it starts looking more and more unlikely we'll go back there, in my view.

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January 05, 2014, 11:03:19 PM
Last edit: January 05, 2014, 11:53:38 PM by RyNinDaCleM
 #1171

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

I'll leave this here!
Horizontal S/R levels

https://i.imgur.com/nQVSLaW.png

The red arrows are direct bounces or quick pokes of resistance where the price was nearly immediately pushed back. The pink are near bounces as if there was a significant amount of front running.
The green arrows are the same as red, but for support as the gray are to the pink.

Most of the levels are nearly equidistant with only +/- a few tenths of a percent difference.

Edit:
How do I resize that sombitch for readability?

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January 05, 2014, 11:09:28 PM
 #1172

Ooh very handy. Thanks for that. I can read it just fine.

Hodl for the longest tiem.

Use it or lose it: http://coinmap.org/
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January 05, 2014, 11:11:49 PM
 #1173

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

I'll leave this here!
Horizontal S/R levels

https://i.imgur.com/nQVSLaW.png

The red arrows are direct bounces or quick pokes of resistance where the price was nearly immediately pushed back. The pink are near bounces as if there was a significant amount of front running.
The green arrows are the same as red, but for support as the gray are to the pink.

Most of the levels are nearly equidistant with only +/- a few tenths of a percent difference.

Edit:
How do I resize that sombitch for readability?

Easiest just to link to the larger image as I have done with your pic

1keewee2vRp63UWvPBynT55ZYw6SUCKDB
RyNinDaCleM
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January 05, 2014, 11:14:24 PM
 #1174

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

I'll leave this here!
Horizontal S/R levels

https://i.imgur.com/nQVSLaW.png

The red arrows are direct bounces or quick pokes of resistance where the price was nearly immediately pushed back. The pink are near bounces as if there was a significant amount of front running.
The green arrows are the same as red, but for support as the gray are to the pink.

Most of the levels are nearly equidistant with only +/- a few tenths of a percent difference.

Edit:
How do I resize that sombitch for readability?

Easiest just to link to the larger image as I have done with your pic

I know, but I thought there was a way to do some BBcode to resize :/

notme
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January 05, 2014, 11:19:14 PM
 #1175

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

I'll leave this here!
Horizontal S/R levels

https://i.imgur.com/nQVSLaW.png

The red arrows are direct bounces or quick pokes of resistance where the price was nearly immediately pushed back. The pink are near bounces as if there was a significant amount of front running.
The green arrows are the same as red, but for support as the gray are to the pink.

Most of the levels are nearly equidistant with only +/- a few tenths of a percent difference.

Edit:
How do I resize that sombitch for readability?

Easiest just to link to the larger image as I have done with your pic

I know, but I thought there was a way to do some BBcode to resize :/


Code:
[img width=800]

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
keewee
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January 05, 2014, 11:23:47 PM
 #1176

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

I'll leave this here!
Horizontal S/R levels

https://i.imgur.com/nQVSLaW.png

The red arrows are direct bounces or quick pokes of resistance where the price was nearly immediately pushed back. The pink are near bounces as if there was a significant amount of front running.
The green arrows are the same as red, but for support as the gray are to the pink.

Most of the levels are nearly equidistant with only +/- a few tenths of a percent difference.

Edit:
How do I resize that sombitch for readability?

Easiest just to link to the larger image as I have done with your pic

I know, but I thought there was a way to do some BBcode to resize :/


Code:
[img width=800]

Bear in mind that making this particular image larger will make it quite a bit bigger than the window size for many people

1keewee2vRp63UWvPBynT55ZYw6SUCKDB
RyNinDaCleM
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January 05, 2014, 11:43:41 PM
 #1177

So whats the next likely resistance? Speaking in the very short term, I can't help but feel like we are overbought right now. The next historical point to bounce off of seems like $1068 gox.

I'll leave this here!
Horizontal S/R levels

https://i.imgur.com/nQVSLaW.png

The red arrows are direct bounces or quick pokes of resistance where the price was nearly immediately pushed back. The pink are near bounces as if there was a significant amount of front running.
The green arrows are the same as red, but for support as the gray are to the pink.

Most of the levels are nearly equidistant with only +/- a few tenths of a percent difference.

Edit:
How do I resize that sombitch for readability?

Easiest just to link to the larger image as I have done with your pic

I know, but I thought there was a way to do some BBcode to resize :/


Code:
[img width=800]

Bear in mind that making this particular image larger will make it quite a bit bigger than the window size for many people

Right!
...and thank you notme!
I wasn't going to make it huge, but a little easier to read without having to click a link.

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January 06, 2014, 07:20:16 AM
 #1178

How are we doing with those Fib retracement levels on this bull trap? Wink
JustAnotherSheep
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January 06, 2014, 07:40:34 AM
 #1179

There are so many factors to consider in the Bitcoin market, such that trying to apply TA for predictive power is largely useless.
I highly disagree. TA may not be 100% accurate, but it is far from useless. Lucif and his remarkably good calls is living proof of that.
It is essentially the study of crowd psychology applied to a market, and bitcoin users are still human and as such their behavior can be analyzed, patterns discerned and used for probabilistic predictions.

While I appreciate there are more things to consider and that TA will never be a magic crystal ball giving you guaranteed answers, I still believe it is a hell of a lot better than going by gut feeling, which is what the majority of this forum seem to do (and admittedly myself before I found this thread).

How are we doing with those Fib retracement levels on this bull trap? Wink
I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong, but I still won't see confirmation of a bull market until we pass ATH. For all I know this could just be an unprecedentedly strong bull-trap, and I prefer not getting trapped, even if it means losing out on some profit.

Is it a bull? Is it a bear? No, it's just another sheep.
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January 06, 2014, 07:41:36 AM
 #1180

There are so many factors to consider in the Bitcoin market, such that trying to apply TA for predictive power is largely useless.
I highly disagree. TA may not be 100% accurate, but it is far from useless. Lucif and his remarkably good calls is living proof of that.
It is essentially the study of crowd psychology applied to a market, and bitcoin users are still human and as such their behavior can be analyzed, patterns discerned and used for probabilistic predictions.

While I appreciate there are more things to consider and that TA will never be a magic crystal ball giving you guaranteed answers, I still believe it is a hell of a lot better than going by gut feeling, which is what the majority of this forum seem to do (and admittedly myself before I found this thread).

How are we doing with those Fib retracement levels on this bull trap? Wink
I'm man enough to admit when I'm wrong, but I still won't see confirmation of a bull market until we pass ATH. For all I know this could just be an unprecedentedly strong bull-trap, and I prefer not getting trapped, even if it means losing out on some profit.

You mean a triple top?
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