rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[cbeast]

People are worrying that a $50 increase is too fast during the recent pump and this supposedly means it'll correct.

How can btc increase on a large scale without big increases? I'll be 200 years old if we have slow steady growth from now until glorious wealth and security.

How can something increase in value without causing instability in the market?

If it climbs 10% every week it wont take 200 years.

But you know it doesn't work that way. The spring is wound by the hand of greed, the elbow of fear, and the shoulder of time.

[jehst]

People are worrying that a $50 increase is too fast during the recent pump and this supposedly means it'll correct.

How can btc increase on a large scale without big increases? I'll be 200 years old if we have slow steady growth from now until glorious wealth and security.

How can something increase in value without causing instability in the market?

If it climbs 10% every week it wont take 200 years.

But you know it doesn't work that way. The spring is wound by the hand of greed, the elbow of fear, and the shoulder of time.

Right. Look at the history of bitcoin and every altcoin. There is no example of a nice steady uptrend.

Typical bitcoin price action would be another 8 months of sub-350 prices and then an absurd eight weeks of consecutive green straight to 2000+. That's not my prediction. It just would be the kind of price action that's normal in this world.

[yefi]

But you know it doesn't work that way. The cock is pumped by the hand of greed, the elbow of fear, and the shoulder of time.

Great analogy, though may I suggest my ribald improvement?  

[SmoothCurves]

Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap 

hm? It's not cheap any more?

Now, yes.

When BTC hits $1Million, probably not.

If BTC hits 1m I will be richer than anyone I've ever met. I struggle to comprehend this.

I wish I could say the same thing. I've met Elon Musk and other Billionaires.

[SmoothCurves]

Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap 

hm? It's not cheap any more?

Now, yes.

When BTC hits $1Million, probably not.

I think it's been stated elsewhere that a good way of valuing XMR is as a percentage of BTC. Subsequent XMR rallies should take it to: .01, .1 and beyond. Maybe we can get an idea of what the endgame looks like by comparing amount of money in off-shore/tax haven accts vs taxed accounts?

[Wexlike]

Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap 

hm? It's not cheap any more?

Now, yes.

When BTC hits $1Million, probably not.

I think it's been stated elsewhere that a good way of valuing XMR is as a percentage of BTC. Subsequent XMR rallies should take it to: .01, .1 and beyond. Maybe we can get an idea of what the endgame looks like by comparing amount of money in off-shore/tax haven accts vs taxed accounts?

XMR is not going anywhere with just one exchange, which even went full KYC.

[pinky]

XMR is not going anywhere with just one exchange, which even went full KYC.

What are you talking about? Last I checked there were 4 exchanges, but Poloniex is dominating. Poloniex is not exactly full KYC. There are also other ways to buy/sell XMR (shapeshift, otc) without KYC or AML.

More exchanges would help with visibility, but this is not price guarantee. XMR is doing very good with just one central exchange, well at least better than 500 other coins (some of them are listed on more than 20 exchanges and they are still worth almost 0).

XMR is currency and far more important than exchanges is actual demand and it's use in the real world commerce. This whole mentality that exchanges are the single most important factor is just idiotic. Bitcoin would still be at $0.01 without certain commerce sites. Translation to Chinese and other languages, active code development and active users are far more important than adding XMR to some crapy exchange.

[molecular]

I spotted potential cup & handle pattern on daily chart:



Here are some criteria and notes taken from http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts3.asp

• This is a bullish continuation pattern where the upward trend has paused, and traded down, but will continue in an upward direction upon the completion of the pattern.
• First, it's important that there is an upward trend before the formation of the cup and handle.<- check
• The construct of the cup itself is also important: it should be a nicely rounded formation, similar to a semi-circle <- check?.
• The reason is that a cup-and-handle pattern is a signal of consolidation within a trend, where the weaker investors leave the market and new buyers and resolute holders stay in the security <- fundamentally plausible
  
• a traditional cup-and-handle pattern should be between one-third and two-thirds the size of the previous upward movement <- check
  
• During this downward move, a descending trendline can be drawn, which forms the signal for the breakout. A move by the security above this descending trendline is a signal that the prior upward trend is set to begin <- let's see
  

[smoothie]

I spotted potential cup & handle pattern on daily chart:



Here are some criteria and notes taken from http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts3.asp

• This is a bullish continuation pattern where the upward trend has paused, and traded down, but will continue in an upward direction upon the completion of the pattern.
• First, it's important that there is an upward trend before the formation of the cup and handle.<- check
• The construct of the cup itself is also important: it should be a nicely rounded formation, similar to a semi-circle <- check?.
• The reason is that a cup-and-handle pattern is a signal of consolidation within a trend, where the weaker investors leave the market and new buyers and resolute holders stay in the security <- fundamentally plausible
  

• a traditional cup-and-handle pattern should be between one-third and two-thirds the size of the previous upward movement <- check
  
• During this downward move, a descending trendline can be drawn, which forms the signal for the breakout. A move by the security above this descending trendline is a signal that the prior upward trend is set to begin <- let's see
  

How exactly is the red portion satisfied?

"previous upward movement" meaning?

[BTCtrader71]

I spotted potential cup & handle pattern on daily chart:



Here are some criteria and notes taken from http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts3.asp

• This is a bullish continuation pattern where the upward trend has paused, and traded down, but will continue in an upward direction upon the completion of the pattern.
• First, it's important that there is an upward trend before the formation of the cup and handle.<- check
• The construct of the cup itself is also important: it should be a nicely rounded formation, similar to a semi-circle <- check?.
• The reason is that a cup-and-handle pattern is a signal of consolidation within a trend, where the weaker investors leave the market and new buyers and resolute holders stay in the security <- fundamentally plausible
  

• a traditional cup-and-handle pattern should be between one-third and two-thirds the size of the previous upward movement <- check
  
• During this downward move, a descending trendline can be drawn, which forms the signal for the breakout. A move by the security above this descending trendline is a signal that the prior upward trend is set to begin <- let's see
  

How exactly is the red portion satisfied?

"previous upward movement" meaning?

previous upward movement = previous uptrend on molecular's chart; rise from ~ 165 to ~ 300, ie rise of $135
The cup caused a dip from ~ 300 to ~ 210, ie dip of $90
$90 is between 1/3 and 2/3 of $135

(Disclaimer: I am a not an expert at TA)

[afbitcoins]

I spotted potential cup & handle pattern on daily chart:



Here are some criteria and notes taken from http://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts3.asp

• This is a bullish continuation pattern where the upward trend has paused, and traded down, but will continue in an upward direction upon the completion of the pattern.
• First, it's important that there is an upward trend before the formation of the cup and handle.<- check
• The construct of the cup itself is also important: it should be a nicely rounded formation, similar to a semi-circle <- check?.
• The reason is that a cup-and-handle pattern is a signal of consolidation within a trend, where the weaker investors leave the market and new buyers and resolute holders stay in the security <- fundamentally plausible
  

• a traditional cup-and-handle pattern should be between one-third and two-thirds the size of the previous upward movement <- check
  
• During this downward move, a descending trendline can be drawn, which forms the signal for the breakout. A move by the security above this descending trendline is a signal that the prior upward trend is set to begin <- let's see
  

How exactly is the red portion satisfied?

"previous upward movement" meaning?

previous upward movement = previous uptrend on molecular's chart; rise from ~ 165 to ~ 300, ie rise of $135
The cup caused a dip from ~ 300 to ~ 210, ie dip of $90
$90 is between 1/3 and 2/3 of $135

(Disclaimer: I am a not an expert at TA)

Yes I spotted that one too it looks a possibility. I'm slightly perturbed by that flash crash in btc-e though

[chessnut]

could this be the beginning of the bank race?

cant beat em, join em?

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-bitcoin-revolution-bnp-paribas-plans-add-crypto-its-currency-funds-1512360

[gotmilk_]

could this be the beginning of the bank race?

cant beat em, join em?

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-bitcoin-revolution-bnp-paribas-plans-add-crypto-its-currency-funds-1512360

France's biggest bank BNP Paribas is planning to add bitcoin to one of its currency funds, a move which will be announced in the next couple of weeks, according to a source at the bank.

If they actually do this... 

[L0uis]

could this be the beginning of the bank race?

cant beat em, join em?

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-bitcoin-revolution-bnp-paribas-plans-add-crypto-its-currency-funds-1512360

If true, most have no idea what's going to happen.. holishit!

[molecular]

could this be the beginning of the bank race?

cant beat em, join em?

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-bitcoin-revolution-bnp-paribas-plans-add-crypto-its-currency-funds-1512360

France's biggest bank BNP Paribas is planning to add bitcoin to one of its currency funds, a move which will be announced in the next couple of weeks, according to a source at the bank.

If they actually do this... 

depends how many they add. 1? 2?

[Gyrsur]

could this be the beginning of the bank race?

cant beat em, join em?

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-bitcoin-revolution-bnp-paribas-plans-add-crypto-its-currency-funds-1512360

France's biggest bank BNP Paribas is planning to add bitcoin to one of its currency funds, a move which will be announced in the next couple of weeks, according to a source at the bank.

If they actually do this... 

depends how many they add. 1? 2?

institutional, means not less than 100,000.00 or something i guess

[AlexGR]

could this be the beginning of the bank race?

cant beat em, join em?

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-bitcoin-revolution-bnp-paribas-plans-add-crypto-its-currency-funds-1512360

France's biggest bank BNP Paribas is planning to add bitcoin to one of its currency funds, a move which will be announced in the next couple of weeks, according to a source at the bank.

If they actually do this... 

depends how many they add. 1? 2?

institutional, means not less than 100,000.00 or something i guess

Even at $500 avg buying cost, 100.000 BTCs would cost them... 50 million USD. Which is nothing for institutional investors.

[gotmilk_]

could this be the beginning of the bank race?

cant beat em, join em?

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-bitcoin-revolution-bnp-paribas-plans-add-crypto-its-currency-funds-1512360

France's biggest bank BNP Paribas is planning to add bitcoin to one of its currency funds, a move which will be announced in the next couple of weeks, according to a source at the bank.

If they actually do this...  

depends how many they add. 1? 2?

I would say around 50 000 for start? It is not much, but I would speculate other banks will follow...

Also:
http://www.coindesk.com/digitalbtc-buys-10-1m-in-bitcoin-in-q2-2015/

[BitChick]

could this be the beginning of the bank race?

cant beat em, join em?

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-bitcoin-revolution-bnp-paribas-plans-add-crypto-its-currency-funds-1512360

If true, most have no idea what's going to happen.. holishit!

Any speculation as to what could happen to the price if/when this happens? 

I love to dream. 

[Wexlike]

could this be the beginning of the bank race?

cant beat em, join em?

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-bitcoin-revolution-bnp-paribas-plans-add-crypto-its-currency-funds-1512360

If true, most have no idea what's going to happen.. holishit!

Any speculation as to what could happen to the price if/when this happens? 

I love to dream. 

I don't want to ruin your dreams but the actual quote from this BNP guy is "We are looking at blockchain technology and how it can be applied to post trade processes to make things faster and potentially cheaper but it's all very much projects and it's all in testing. It's nothing live." No idea, how someone can create this clickbaiting headline..

He says nothing about a currency fund or anything specific about bitcoin. He also just mentiones "post trade processes" - but no idea what he means with that.

Sorry, BitChick.