rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[BTCtrader71]

BTW, the price of BTC is currently below the mining cost for a majority of miners if you include the price of equipment as well.
If it stays this way, network will crash hard (hashing will decline ~50%) soon.

Non sequitur. The equipment costs will not come into play the way you suggest. No one is going to let mining rigs sit idle unless the cost of electricity (plus whatever other maintenance costs exist) is greater than the yield in bitcoin. The high purchase price of equipment would mean they won't be buying any more. But it would not make them turn off what they already have.

True re equipment costs as the only cause, but if no new equipment is deployed, but old equipment is decommissioned, then the network speed WILL decrease.
here is the first mining "bearwhale" for you, but there will be more
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=813649.0

There are at least two self-correcting mechanisms that will kick in to support the network speed. The question is not whether they will kick in, but when. We should not be alarmed when we see them kick in, because these mechanisms are part of the design.

1. Every decrease in hash power makes all the rest of the mining rigs more profitable.
2. If network speed becomes a problem, then users of the network will be willing to pay more in mining fees.

[1714483047]

1714483047

[1714483047]

1714483047

[1714483047]

1714483047

[1714483047]

1714483047

[1714483047]

1714483047

[Biodom]

BTW, the price of BTC is currently below the mining cost for a majority of miners if you include the price of equipment as well.
If it stays this way, network will crash hard (hashing will decline ~50%) soon.

Non sequitur. The equipment costs will not come into play the way you suggest. No one is going to let mining rigs sit idle unless the cost of electricity (plus whatever other maintenance costs exist) is greater than the yield in bitcoin. The high purchase price of equipment would mean they won't be buying any more. But it would not make them turn off what they already have.

True re equipment costs as the only cause, but if no new equipment is deployed, but old equipment is decommissioned, then the network speed WILL decrease.
here is the first mining "bearwhale" for you, but there will be more
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=813649.0

There are at least two self-correcting mechanisms that will kick in to support the network speed. The question is not whether they will kick in, but when. We should not be alarmed when we see them kick in, because these mechanisms are part of the design.

1. Every decrease in hash power makes all the rest of the mining rigs more profitable.
2. If network speed becomes a problem, then users of the network will be willing to pay more in mining fees.

yeah, i am not concerned at all, just commenting on BTC price vs network speed. In 2011 we did have ~50% reduction in hashing power.
I would welcome it right now because even the best current rigs available for consumer purchases are unprofitable.
In a long run it did not change anything.

[NewLiberty]

BTW, the price of BTC is currently below the mining cost for a majority of miners if you include the price of equipment as well.
If it stays this way, network will crash hard (hashing will decline ~50%) soon.

Non sequitur. The equipment costs will not come into play the way you suggest. No one is going to let mining rigs sit idle unless the cost of electricity (plus whatever other maintenance costs exist) is greater than the yield in bitcoin. The high purchase price of equipment would mean they won't be buying any more. But it would not make them turn off what they already have.

True re equipment costs as the only cause, but if no new equipment is deployed, but old equipment is decommissioned, then the network speed WILL decrease.
here is the first mining "bearwhale" for you, but there will be more
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=813649.0

There are at least two self-correcting mechanisms that will kick in to support the network speed. The question is not whether they will kick in, but when. We should not be alarmed when we see them kick in, because these mechanisms are part of the design.

1. Every decrease in hash power makes all the rest of the mining rigs more profitable.
2. If network speed becomes a problem, then users of the network will be willing to pay more in mining fees.

yeah, i am not concerned at all, just commenting on BTC price vs network speed. In 2011 we did have ~50% reduction in hashing power.
I would welcome it right now because even the best current rigs available for consumer purchases are unprofitable.
In a long run it did not change anything.

There is much more mining then is needed for security of the network currently, but for the concentration of the mining control.
The worst effect is that these that are the least profitable tend to be the most decentralized.

[Trolololo]

This is a very reasonable proposal, and will definitely increase adoption since BTC XBT will again look cheap.

Support +1.

Sooo... I wonder if bits is still useful for nickname or xbit? Exhibit seems too many syllables and doesn't flow smoothly for saying a lot. I kind of hope XBT is just referred to as bits.

+1

@AstroChicks question about "who has authority": stop asking for authority, don't ask for permission. Anyone is free to use whichever unit they wish. However note that there is strong opposition both against the specific name "bits" and also for "changing the unit and confusing people". Whichever unit will be used, it will be a decision made by use.

I am with the opposition to "bits", but it does not matter, as OP said. Use determines the terms.
However, the only way to logically reconcile Bitcoin foundation proposal with historical status is to use base unit of "bitcoin" (XBT) and satoshi at 1:100 of XBT.
BTC can be used as a historical unit. The only thing that is required is recalculation of XBT as 100 satoshi(s).
Result: Everyone with one BTC will be XBT millionaire.
Although the last point is somewhat silly, the positive psychological effect is undeniable.

If Bitcoin fully replaces fiat and its value stabilizes in 1 million USD:

- One BTC or "Bitcoin" (first letter uppercase) would be equivalent to one million dollars or one million "bitcoins" or "coin".
- One XBT or "bitcoin" (first letter lowercase) or "coin" would be equivalent to one dollar.
- One "Satoshi" would be equivalent to one cent.

I like that.

It's difficult for people to remember more than two decimals. Today's 8 decimals are a headache..

[Trolololo]

Returning to AT and to last Sunday's flashcrash to 275, I think that the 30k whale intentionally drawed a high volume bottom at 275. Somehow showing that the accumulation phase had started. And accumulation phase could last for months...

Revisiting 275 by mid December is highly probable, in my opinion.

[brg444]

Returning to AT and to last Sunday's flashcrash to 275, I think that the 30k whale intentionally drawed a high volume bottom at 275. Somehow showing that the accumulation phase had started. And accumulation phase could last for months...

Revisiting 275 by mid December is highly probable, in my opinion.

 

maybe I'm missing something but I thought the accumulation phase was during the previous down trend

now that wweak hands have been shaken out. whales will want it to go up

[Biodom]

Returning to AT and to last Sunday's flashcrash to 275, I think that the 30k whale intentionally drawed a high volume bottom at 275. Somehow showing that the accumulation phase had started. And accumulation phase could last for months...

Revisiting 275 by mid December is highly probable, in my opinion.

We don't have to revisit it exactly; we can overshoot to $240-270 or undershoot to $295 or even $320.
The majority of my coins were purchased at higher prices, but I am not selling, unless bitcoin becomes unviable.

[solex]

Returning to AT and to last Sunday's flashcrash to 275, I think that the 30k whale intentionally drawed a high volume bottom at 275. Somehow showing that the accumulation phase had started. And accumulation phase could last for months...

Revisiting 275 by mid December is highly probable, in my opinion.

 

maybe I'm missing something but I thought the accumulation phase was during the previous down trend

now that wweak hands have been shaken out. whales will want it to go up

That's far too logical and sensible. Conspiracy theory requires the whales to be eternally selling, trying to crash the price, so that they can somehow "own it all".

[sidhujag]

it will go up when you least expect it.. and not when noobs buy

[rpietila]

whales to be eternally selling, so that they can somehow "own it all".

If you could do it, wouldn't you? 

[NotLambchop]

whales to be eternally selling, so that they can somehow "own it all".

If you could do it, wouldn't you? 

I wouldn't.  If I owned all the coin, how much would it be worth? :p

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

whales to be eternally selling, so that they can somehow "own it all".

If you could do it, wouldn't you? 

I wouldn't.  If I owned all the coin, how much would it be worth? :p

Agreed. Seems a bit short sighted, like shooting yourself in the face a little

[BTCtrader71]

whales to be eternally selling, so that they can somehow "own it all".

If you could do it, wouldn't you? 

I wouldn't.  If I owned all the coin, how much would it be worth? :p

Agreed. Seems a bit short sighted, like shooting yourself in the face a little

If you owned and hoarded all but a small fraction of all coins in existence, then that small fraction would run the network just fine, just with a higher value per bitcoin than if your hoarded coins were released into the wild.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

whales to be eternally selling, so that they can somehow "own it all".

If you could do it, wouldn't you?  

I wouldn't.  If I owned all the coin, how much would it be worth? :p

Agreed. Seems a bit short sighted, like shooting yourself in the face a little

If you owned and hoarded all but a small fraction of all coins in existence, then that small fraction would run the network just fine, just with a higher value per bitcoin than if your hoarded coins were released into the wild.

If you owned and hoarded all but a small fraction it would be easier to pump. I see that part

[BTCtrader71]

whales to be eternally selling, so that they can somehow "own it all".

If you could do it, wouldn't you? 

I wouldn't.  If I owned all the coin, how much would it be worth? :p

Agreed. Seems a bit short sighted, like shooting yourself in the face a little

If you owned and hoarded all but a small fraction of all coins in existence, then that small fraction would run the network just fine, just with a higher value per bitcoin than if your hoarded coins were released into the wild.

If you owned and hoarded all but a small fraction it would be easier to pump. I see that part

If you lost the private keys to your hoard so that they were unrecoverable for all practical purposes, the network would function just fine without them, even if your hoard consisted of 99.9% of all bitcoins.
 

[Majormax]

whales to be eternally selling, so that they can somehow "own it all".

If you could do it, wouldn't you? 

I wouldn't.  If I owned all the coin, how much would it be worth? :p

Agreed. Seems a bit short sighted, like shooting yourself in the face a little

If you owned and hoarded all but a small fraction of all coins in existence, then that small fraction would run the network just fine, just with a higher value per bitcoin than if your hoarded coins were released into the wild.

If you owned and hoarded all but a small fraction it would be easier to pump. I see that part

If you lost the private keys to your hoard so that they were unrecoverable for all practical purposes, the network would function just fine without them, even if your hoard consisted of 99.9% of all bitcoins.
 

...but then there would be no buyers, because the fools always believe a 99% 'premine' (scam loss) is 'overhanging' the market. No distribution, no market.

You could never prove to any prospective buyer that you had 'really' lost the keys.

[BTCtrader71]

whales to be eternally selling, so that they can somehow "own it all".

If you could do it, wouldn't you? 

I wouldn't.  If I owned all the coin, how much would it be worth? :p

Agreed. Seems a bit short sighted, like shooting yourself in the face a little

If you owned and hoarded all but a small fraction of all coins in existence, then that small fraction would run the network just fine, just with a higher value per bitcoin than if your hoarded coins were released into the wild.

If you owned and hoarded all but a small fraction it would be easier to pump. I see that part

If you lost the private keys to your hoard so that they were unrecoverable for all practical purposes, the network would function just fine without them, even if your hoard consisted of 99.9% of all bitcoins.
 

...but then there would be no buyers, because the fools always believe a 99% 'premine' (scam loss) is 'overhanging' the market. No distribution, no market.

You could never prove to any prospective buyer that you had 'really' lost the keys.

True. Although I think there are ways to provably burn bitcoins so everyone can be confident they will never be retrieved. This conversation has me wondering what Satoshi is going to do with his stash, and what I would do if I were in his shoes. Something that would benefit bitcoin. Letting them sit forever unused would cause uncertainty in the market for reasons described. So, either burn them or use them for something. But what, and when?
 

[DieJohnny]

True. Although I think there are ways to provably burn bitcoins so everyone can be confident they will never be retrieved. This conversation has me wondering what Satoshi is going to do with his stash, and what I would do if I were in his shoes. Something that would benefit bitcoin. Letting them sit forever unused would cause uncertainty in the market for reasons described. So, either burn them or use them for something. But what, and when?
 

I agree completely, Satoshi needs to do something with those coins, it would be the single biggest boost to Bitcoin. Here is what i recommmend:


1. Make Goxed account holders whole and any other bitcoin disaster where addresses and accounts are known (yes I was Goxed
2. Announce the ultimate give away. Using a well thought out strategy, pay out all remaining Bitcoins to current holders, excluding largest 10% of addresses.

Price would sky rocket!

[farfiman]

I agree completely, Satoshi needs to do something with those coins, it would be the single biggest boost to Bitcoin. Here is what i recommmend:

1. Make Goxed account holders whole and any other bitcoin disaster where addresses and accounts are known (yes I was Goxed
2. Announce the ultimate give away. Using a well thought out strategy, pay out all remaining Bitcoins to current holders, excluding largest 10% of addresses.

Price would sky rocket!

Price would drop- millions of coins will be put on the market.

[brg444]

I agree completely, Satoshi needs to do something with those coins, it would be the single biggest boost to Bitcoin. Here is what i recommmend:

1. Make Goxed account holders whole and any other bitcoin disaster where addresses and accounts are known (yes I was Goxed
2. Announce the ultimate give away. Using a well thought out strategy, pay out all remaining Bitcoins to current holders, excluding largest 10% of addresses.

Price would sky rocket!

Price would drop- millions of coins will be put on the market.

Basically what will happen when Ross's next stash gets auctioned off

 

yeah cause that's what happened the last time when the 30k got auctioned off right