rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rjclarke2000]

could this be the beginning of the bank race?

cant beat em, join em?

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/french-bitcoin-revolution-bnp-paribas-plans-add-crypto-its-currency-funds-1512360

If true, most have no idea what's going to happen.. holishit!

Any speculation as to what could happen to the price if/when this happens? 

I love to dream. 

I am exactly the same. I don't know about the price but if it works out banks around the world will follow suit

[1714776486]

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[rpietila]

I have a Monero fund already established, and undergoing the initial capital building process (acquiring Moneros). Once we get enough to begin with (the company already has a capital in 6 figures), we can start accepting investors.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

I have a Monero fund already established, and undergoing the initial capital building process (acquiring Moneros). Once we get enough to begin with (the company already has a capital in 6 figures), we can start accepting investors.

wow, good luck with that. it sounds promising

[dreamspark]

I have a Monero fund already established, and undergoing the initial capital building process (acquiring Moneros). Once we get enough to begin with (the company already has a capital in 6 figures), we can start accepting investors.

6 figure what? BTC, USD, XMR?

[pa]

I have a Monero fund already established, and undergoing the initial capital building process (acquiring Moneros). Once we get enough to begin with (the company already has a capital in 6 figures), we can start accepting investors.

What advantage would an investor in your fund enjoy over buying and holding xmr himself?

[Bagatell]

I have a Monero fund already established, and undergoing the initial capital building process (acquiring Moneros). Once we get enough to begin with (the company already has a capital in 6 figures), we can start accepting investors.

What advantage would an investor in your fund enjoy over buying and holding xmr himself?

Do those advantages out weigh the loss of anonymity?

[LucyLovesCrypto]

I have a Monero fund already established, and undergoing the initial capital building process (acquiring Moneros). Once we get enough to begin with (the company already has a capital in 6 figures), we can start accepting investors.

6 figures of XMR or some fiat currency? That would make the company one of the largest XMR holders already I believe! How large do you think the fund has a potential to grow?

[rpietila]

I have a Monero fund already established, and undergoing the initial capital building process (acquiring Moneros). Once we get enough to begin with (the company already has a capital in 6 figures), we can start accepting investors.

What advantage would an investor in your fund enjoy over buying and holding xmr himself?

Anyone reading this should buy himself. But there are people and corporations out there that may find the fund format easier to handle, accept, or get accepted in the decision making organs.

6 figures of XMR or some fiat currency? That would make the company one of the largest XMR holders already I believe! How large do you think the fund has a potential to grow?

XMR is so small that yes, it's very likely the fund is already in TOP-10 XMR holdings and will increase the rank as the conversion progresses, and especially if we get any significan new investors.

XMR has fixed supply so of course at some point we will hit the wall where the percentage of total grows only slowly, even though the fiat amounts grow fast. It is a nice situation to be in if the fund is already one of the largest holders 

[Fern]

Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap 

hm? It's not cheap any more?

Now, yes.

When BTC hits $1Million, probably not.

I think it's been stated elsewhere that a good way of valuing XMR is as a percentage of BTC. Subsequent XMR rallies should take it to: .01, .1 and beyond. Maybe we can get an idea of what the endgame looks like by comparing amount of money in off-shore/tax haven accts vs taxed accounts?

XMR is not going anywhere with just one exchange, which even went full KYC.

A Decentralized Exchange 'InstantDex' is nearing completion. http://www.instantdex.org/

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

Or people have made their sidebet on Monero when it still was cheap 

hm? It's not cheap any more?

Now, yes.

When BTC hits $1Million, probably not.

I don't think even that will push it anyhow

[raindex]

I constantly see posts and articles saying that the price of bitcoin id heavily manipulated. Would it it be fair to say that price manipulation is much more difficult on the large time scale? Would anyone be able to suppress or inflate price for years? Just in case some of you agree that TA based on longer time intervals may sometimes be more useful than based on the recent history, here is a graph of all available history of Bitcoin price.

https://i.imgur.com/myCjrkI.png

Haven't seen long term discussions here recently. Can anyone make smart guesses about long term future trends?

[rpietila]

...Not a bubble.

Nope, not at all...









..perfectly natural and sustainable growth.     

Many investments are rocks. When you let go, they will fall back to ground. Some are balloons. When you let go, it will rise to the atmosphere. It is not easy for many to distinguish between those two. Also the balloons are susceptible to pricks. Trade wisely.

Haha, this one was prophetic. (Note the age of the post, and that the chart depicted went only to March, 2013, when it was discussed.) And that pricks indeed have been the cause for the downfall.

[ArticMine]

Bitcoin currently has a serious long term fundamental problem; namely the 1 MB blocksize limit that prevents any meaningful growth of the Bitcoin network. The upside potential is actually capped at close to the current transaction rate by the protocol while there remains a very significant downside risk. The risk vs return ratio is makes very little sense at current prices. Until the blocksize issue is resolved in a manner that allows for the Bitcoin network to grow, I remain a bear.

[brg444]

Bitcoin currently has a serious long term fundamental problem; namely the 1 MB blocksize limit that prevents any meaningful growth of the Bitcoin network. The upside potential is actually capped at close to the current transaction rate by the protocol while there remains a very significant downside risk. The risk vs return ratio is makes very little sense at current prices. Until the blocksize issue is resolved in a manner that allows for the Bitcoin network to grow, I remain a bear.

 

TIL transaction growth = Bitcoin growth

Have you considered that maybe, just maybe, Bitcoin has more appeal than just as a payment network?

We're now sitting pretty at an average of 350kb blocks, where is this demand for growth you speak of?

[Fiat_Hodler]

Bitcoin currently has a serious long term fundamental problem; namely the 1 MB blocksize limit that prevents any meaningful growth of the Bitcoin network. The upside potential is actually capped at close to the current transaction rate by the protocol while there remains a very significant downside risk. The risk vs return ratio is makes very little sense at current prices. Until the blocksize issue is resolved in a manner that allows for the Bitcoin network to grow, I remain a bear.

 

TIL transaction growth = Bitcoin growth

Have you considered that maybe, just maybe, Bitcoin has more appeal than just as a payment network?

We're now sitting pretty at an average of 350kb blocks, where is this demand for growth you speak of?

Well you can either use past data to predict the future and identify trends and be prepared in advance, thus averting a disaster or you can remain ignorant until you get hit by the train by which time the problem will already be a major issue.

[brg444]

Bitcoin currently has a serious long term fundamental problem; namely the 1 MB blocksize limit that prevents any meaningful growth of the Bitcoin network. The upside potential is actually capped at close to the current transaction rate by the protocol while there remains a very significant downside risk. The risk vs return ratio is makes very little sense at current prices. Until the blocksize issue is resolved in a manner that allows for the Bitcoin network to grow, I remain a bear.

 

TIL transaction growth = Bitcoin growth

Have you considered that maybe, just maybe, Bitcoin has more appeal than just as a payment network?

We're now sitting pretty at an average of 350kb blocks, where is this demand for growth you speak of?

Well you can either use past data to predict the future and identify trends and be prepared in advance, thus averting a disaster or you can remain ignorant until you get hit by the train by which time the problem will already be a major issue.

Sure, let's do that. So... past data shows transaction increase in the last year and a half but... where is the Bitcoin growth 

[Zarathustra]

Bitcoin currently has a serious long term fundamental problem; namely the 1 MB blocksize limit that prevents any meaningful growth of the Bitcoin network. The upside potential is actually capped at close to the current transaction rate by the protocol while there remains a very significant downside risk. The risk vs return ratio is makes very little sense at current prices. Until the blocksize issue is resolved in a manner that allows for the Bitcoin network to grow, I remain a bear.

 

TIL transaction growth = Bitcoin growth

Have you considered that maybe, just maybe, Bitcoin has more appeal than just as a payment network?

We're now sitting pretty at an average of 350kb blocks, where is this demand for growth you speak of?

Well you can either use past data to predict the future and identify trends and be prepared in advance, thus averting a disaster or you can remain ignorant until you get hit by the train by which time the problem will already be a major issue.

Yes. Tenfold txs increase Spring 12 - Spring 13 (halving between). The small blocks of the small blockers (blockstreamers) will prevent that to repeat.

[rpietila]

My take on the issue: I cannot see any validity in the speech of those who claim that the 1MB cap was designed to be forever. Actually, many a supposed friend of Bitcoin has shown himself to be a globalist agent during the debate, by claiming incredulities regarding the issue.

However, even if the current situation is untenable, it does not mean that every attempt to resolve it is the correct one that should be acted upon. Agents around this corner as well. 

[conspirosphere.tk]

My take on the issue:

Any solution has to make spam expensive. Anything else is just adding further problems.
That's why I like the solution implemented with Litecoins.

[ArticMine]

My take on the issue: I cannot see any validity in the speech of those who claim that the 1MB cap was designed to be forever. Actually, many a supposed friend of Bitcoin has shown himself to be a globalist agent during the debate, by claiming incredulities regarding the issue.

However, even if the current situation is untenable, it does not mean that every attempt to resolve it is the correct one that should be acted upon. Agents around this corner as well.  

While the block reward is still in place there are many reasonable solutions that are "good enough". For example the quadratic penalty function in Cryptonote (Monero) or even relying on the probalility of orphan blocks to create a fee market that deters spam. The difficulty is that this blocksize debate has raised an even more fundamental question: How does one secure the network after the emission runs out? Monero has solved this with a fixed tail emission, Dogecoin also has a tail emission and so do many POS coins (Peercoin for example); however this is a non starter for Bitcoin because of the social covenant. Furthermore a fixed blocksize may even not provide for a fee market to develop, in the absence of a block reward, as the current "stress tests" are demonstrating. The small block crowd are by the way also making some very valid points.

The best I have seen to date is BIP 100 with a 50% threshold, and much higher starting limits; however this is dependent on external market factors (other crypto currencies, fiat payment methods etc.) to keep the "mining cartel" from raising the fees with no limit. I have been researching this issue for over three years and unfortunatly the more I look into this, the more discouraged about the future of Bitcoin I become.

What is needed here is a solution that allows for a dynamic blocksize limit that will respond to market forces allowing a fee market to develop, in the absence of block rewards. I am not saying that such a solution is not possible, I have simply not found it. Pending a solution, a bear I remain.