rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[kkaspar]

Yes this sounds sort of illuminati-ish. Secret society type stuff.

To each his own.

No surprise. The whole crypto market is heavily manipulated by secret whale consortiums. Quite antithetical to bitcoin's so-called ideals.

Yes, it is definitely the time to have a network which actually cares about Bitcoin and its members' liberties.

The "bitcoin foundation" has shown its skin in the longish time it has existed. Other secret societies also have not benefited the public.

It is time for all this to change. Long Live Goat the Great!

Now we are getting somewhere. There needs to be some proper leadership in the bitcoin community. It's childish to think that bitcoin can survive without any leadership that could organize people to reach common goals. The most important and the most difficult thing here is that the leadership has to be chosen in a democratic manner. But discussing this subject is the first step in creating a proper structure in the bitcoin community.
Because without any structural development inside the community, bitcoin will just fade away because it's not able to pass certain thresholds.

For instance, what I myself consider the most important subject here is the situation with MtGox. When most of the community can see that MtGox is insolvent and are lying to people about their "never-ending technical difficulties", then something needs to be done. When most of the community are just trying to hide their heads in sand, then it means that the community is weak, very weak.
All the new people that learn about bitcoin from bitcoin.org are still being directed to MtGox as the main exchange they should use. This means that all the new people that get involved, will get their first experience a negative one and they will tell everyone about that negative experience. And when MtGox will actually shut it's doors and it will come out that they didn't actually have the $ or coins that their numbers showed, then Bitcoin will be called an Ponzi Scheme throughout the media. All the regular folks won't make the difference between bitcoin and mtgox. They only see that a lot of people who invested in bitcoin, lost their money because they were lied to.

[rpietila]

Correct me if I am mistaken but I thought there was already a private VIP section of these forums already.  Why redo what is already done?

What is happening now is much bigger than one forum section.

Besides I cannot really solicit paying Theymos BTC10 for getting access to mostly empty donator place which lacks the qualifications for becoming a good arena of thought. Save your money.

[rpietila]

Now we are getting somewhere. There needs to be some proper leadership in the bitcoin community. It's childish to think that bitcoin can survive without any leadership that could organize people to reach common goals. The most important and the most difficult thing here is that the leadership has to be chosen in a democratic manner. But discussing this subject is the first step in creating a proper structure in the bitcoin community.
Because without any structural development inside the community, bitcoin will just fade away because it's not able to pass certain thresholds.

For instance, what I myself consider the most important subject here is the situation with MtGox. When most of the community can see that MtGox is insolvent and are lying to people about their "never-ending technical difficulties", then something needs to be done. When most of the community are just trying to hide their heads in sand, then it means that the community is weak, very weak.
All the new people that learn about bitcoin from bitcoin.org are still being directed to MtGox as the main exchange they should use. This means that all the new people that get involved, will get their first experience a negative one and they will tell everyone about that negative experience. And when MtGox will actually shut it's doors and it will come out that they didn't actually have the $ or coins that their numbers showed, then Bitcoin will be called an Ponzi Scheme throughout the media. All the regular folks won't make the difference between bitcoin and mtgox. They only see that a lot of people who invested in bitcoin, lost their money because they were lied to.

Sir,
Thank you for these encouraging words.

Indeed isn't it funny that it took this long for anyone to realize that Bitcoin Foundation is stillborn and act on it decisively (even though at this point it only means a forum). How many have been lead astray (to Mt.Gox) because of their shady dealings? In plain daylight. Shameful.

[RAJSALLIN]

Personally I'd prefer no leadership att all. The more decenentalized the better imo. Of course we need people that are active in the community and speak in favor of bitcoin but I don't think we need anymore organizations that speak the word of bitcoin. Let the market do it's job. When it comes to MtGox the market is doing just this with the increasing spread between Gox and other exchanges. Think it's working perfectly in that aspect. If MtGox problems increase the market will keep "judging" it in the way it requires.

I don't want to put rpietila down in anyway. His posts are what made me join bitcointLk in the first place. I just love the posts about how 10btc will make you super rich etc. Also his trading skills are far superior than most in the other wall thread.

[kkaspar]

Now we are getting somewhere. There needs to be some proper leadership in the bitcoin community. It's childish to think that bitcoin can survive without any leadership that could organize people to reach common goals. The most important and the most difficult thing here is that the leadership has to be chosen in a democratic manner. But discussing this subject is the first step in creating a proper structure in the bitcoin community.
Because without any structural development inside the community, bitcoin will just fade away because it's not able to pass certain thresholds.

For instance, what I myself consider the most important subject here is the situation with MtGox. When most of the community can see that MtGox is insolvent and are lying to people about their "never-ending technical difficulties", then something needs to be done. When most of the community are just trying to hide their heads in sand, then it means that the community is weak, very weak.
All the new people that learn about bitcoin from bitcoin.org are still being directed to MtGox as the main exchange they should use. This means that all the new people that get involved, will get their first experience a negative one and they will tell everyone about that negative experience. And when MtGox will actually shut it's doors and it will come out that they didn't actually have the $ or coins that their numbers showed, then Bitcoin will be called an Ponzi Scheme throughout the media. All the regular folks won't make the difference between bitcoin and mtgox. They only see that a lot of people who invested in bitcoin, lost their money because they were lied to.

Sir,
Thank you for these encouraging words.

Indeed isn't it funny that it took this long for anyone to realize that Bitcoin Foundation is stillborn and act on it decisively (even though at this point it only means a forum). How many have been lead astray (to Mt.Gox) because of their shady dealings? In plain daylight. Shameful.

I think that currently the best game plan would be to create a public letter addressed to Bitcoin Foundation, about their shortcomings and the risks involved with their activity or mostly lack of activity. The letter would ask their opinion on the current situation and what are their proposed solutions.
It then depends on their reply if more pressure needs to be added to them or not.

I think that provoking a public dialogue with them is the best way, because it will be harder for them to ignore it. The letter has to be supported by enough forum members that it can't be ignored. The letter would be in a form of an topic, and forum members who support the letter, can sign their name under replies.

I think most are afraid to criticize the Bitcoin Foundation because they are afraid that it will hurt the integrity of bitcoin and will lower it's value. And they might be right, but it will only have a short-term effect. Making the community stronger and more responsible will eventually make bitcoin value rise, because it will strengthen the main thing that gives value to bitcoin.
If everyone will just hide their heads in sand and hope that somehow everything will just be alright, then the community isn't strong enough and doesn't deserve to survive.

Thank you rpietila, for showing that there are people in the bitcoin community, who are ready to step out of their comfort zone and face the reality that we are currently living in.

[trainingsengineering]

Personally I'd prefer no leadership att all. The more decenentalized the better imo. Of course we need people that are active in the community and speak in favor of bitcoin but I don't think we need anymore organizations that speak the word of bitcoin. Let the market do it's job. When it comes to MtGox the market is doing just this with the increasing spread between Gox and other exchanges. Think it's working perfectly in that aspect. If MtGox problems increase the market will keep "judging" it in the way it requires.
 

The creation of an entity or several entities is the market. I applaud and would actively support such a hopefully positive endeavour. The Foundation is one thing - I don't see this thing mirroring that concept. You can have an organisation/entity that supports grass roots, supports the very nature of the decentralisation.

[Biodom]

Anybody care to predict BTC price if Mt. Gox abruptly runs out of business?
Bearish short term, bullish long term, neutral?

[kkaspar]

Anybody care to predict BTC price if Mt. Gox abruptly runs out of business?
Bearish short term, bullish long term, neutral?

It all depends how the end will take place. If MtGox pays out it's customers and then just shuts it's doors, then it will be positive and will make the price rise.
If it turns out that MtGox is insolvent and will shut it's doors with leaving it's customers with empty hands, then we will see the biggest panic in the history of BTC. All the regular investors will start cashing out their coins because they won't be certain if other exchanges are honest. That will make all the whales cash out as well, and the companies that adopted BTC payment will distance themselves quickly with disabling payment and BTC will actually go back to single digits or less, with a small group of religious believers left behind.
That will probably be the end of BTC, because that much negative with a single wave, will distance any future investors. There would be a future for cryptos in general, but the creators of the new cryptos, will have A VERY HARD time explaining people how the faults of BTC have been fixed with this new coin, so that the catastrophic end won't repeat itself.

I have been telling people that the BTC market system needs some auditing and regulations, but most like to hide their heads in sand and they just hope that free market will take care of everything. Well, the free market doesn't deal with corruption and without any order, the corruption will spread more and more.
Because if MtGox is insolvent and it keeps doing business as usual, with presenting false numbers about it's liquidity and assets, then it's a problem of corruption in the market system.

[MatTheCat]

I have been telling people that the BTC market system needs some auditing and regulations, but most like to hide their heads in sand and they just hope that free market will take care of everything. Well, the free market doesn't deal with corruption and without any order, the corruption will spread more and more.
Because if MtGox is insolvent and it keeps doing business as usual, with presenting false numbers about it's liquidity and assets, then it's a problem of corruption in the market system.

This is something that all free market fundamentalists tend not to want to see and when someone points it out, that person gets accused of not understanding how truly free markets work.

[Chancellor]

but the creators of the new cryptos, will have A VERY HARD time explaining people how the faults of BTC have been fixed

I don't really get how a possible default and bakruptcy of MtGox is a fault of bitcoin. And how any new crypto may fix it by its protocol.

[kkaspar]

but the creators of the new cryptos, will have A VERY HARD time explaining people how the faults of BTC have been fixed

I don't really get how a possible default and bakruptcy of MtGox is a fault of bitcoin. And how any new crypto may fix it by its protocol.

It's because of unregulated nature of the bitcoin market system, not the software. The market system is the reason that gives dollar value to bitcoin, otherwise bitcoin would just be another open source software that has no monetary value. If MtGox falls hard, then the market system proves to be untrustworthy and without the trust of investors, the dollar value of bitcoin will be gone. If the investors see that it's possible to run an Ponzi scheme in the market system, without any restrictions by auditors and regulations, then they think that other exchanges are either doing the same thing or will soon start doing it because there are no repercussions on those that do wrong.

What should be done here is that the biggest investors, who have real faith in the success of bitcoin, should ask out the representatives of MtGox with a wish to buy the company. They could set the terms, so they can run an full audit on MtGox. They could review the situation and see how much in debt the company actually is, and according to the status found, they could offer to buy the company with a fair price. Then as new owners, they would use their own funds to fill the empty hole in MtGox, so that all the $ and BTC will be accounted for.
It currently seems like MtGox is largely in debt, and they are trying to earn back the money they have lost. But seeing that the problems with MtGox withdrawals are increasing, not decreasing, makes it probable that their continuation of business actually makes them lose even more. I don't know if the reason is pure incompetence or are they gambling on the market with their users money, and I can't know that without being able to do a thorough audit. But I see that there is an problem and that problem will get out of control if it isn't dealt with quickly enough.

[fluidjax]

It currently seems like MtGox is largely in debt, and they are trying to earn back the money they have lost.

Source, evidence.. Anything? or just a guess?

[hdbuck]

It currently seems like MtGox is largely in debt, and they are trying to earn back the money they have lost.

Source, evidence.. Anything? or just a guess?

that would be an extrapolation from their current difficulties to pay their users ad well as their 'bot-ish' attitude to artificially keep the price stable.

[ErisDiscordia]

Well, the free market doesn't deal with corruption and without any order, the corruption will spread more and more.

I would like to point out to you, that neither does the state deal with corruption in any efficient manner. I would argue, that it generally makes corruption more attractive by providing high incentive to get corrupted. Huge amounts of wealth concentrated in one place and the lack of personal accountability while managing said wealth. The problem of "corruption" can not be solved at this level. And by corruption I mean "institutional behavior not in accord with the mandate given to it by its creator(s)"

This might be solved by providing less incentive for corruption (which would probably mean an overhaul of the whole system, less wealth in the management of the state would arguably be a good start), or less ability to act on corruption (like switching from human-run institutions to programmable, smart corporations), but I digress...

Rpietila, I fully support your efforts in creating another foundation-like institution. Having only one institution representing a decentralized decision-making technology is amusing to me but I would very much like to see competition in the realm of ideas and institutions surrounding Bitcoin. My idea would be having an organization, which is fully transparent in its finances (thanks to the public accounting of the Blockchain), funded by voluntary contribution and which is doing whatever it has publicly stated it will be doing. Maybe embedd that sort of thing into the Blockchain? Just thinking out loud here...

Anyway thanks for the informative and entertaining thread

EDIT: on second thought, I think this second foundation should be secret, its members benevolently guiding the rest of Bitcoinland through the crumbling of the empire by their application of their knowledge of psychohistory

[kkaspar]

It currently seems like MtGox is largely in debt, and they are trying to earn back the money they have lost.

Source, evidence.. Anything? or just a guess?

If the company has increasing amount of "technical difficulties" on withdrawals, while the specific and repeating software flaws could be fixed with less resources then the company earns in a week, then it doesn't take senior detective to figure out that something is wrong on what they're claiming. If it's too improbable for technical difficulties to be real, then the probability switches in favor of hidden financial difficulties. And because we are seeing an increased amount of complaints about withdrawals, we can see that the problem isn't being fixed but made worse.

I can't get any evidence without doing a full audit on their entire system, but I do have common sense, that can be used in analyzing suspicious circumstances. I think that it isn't difficulty to see the same thing that I see, but most have a problem of admitting it.
I think it's mostly to do with people wanting to just buy bitcoins low and then sit on their ass, while doing nothing and get rich in the process. When someone points out that there is a problem and something needs to be done to fix it, then people get angry because it means they should get up from their asses and actually do something that could be considered work. So, they just try to ignore the problem, with trying to silence the one that is putting the problem in spotlight. Then you hear the regular demagogy about how free markets don't need any regulations or trustworthy framework, so they can continue to sit on their asses while the free market does everything.
It's similar to the problem that plagues the current global banking system. Everyone are hiding their heads in sand, hoping that problems will fix themselves, but the problems are getting worse and worse. Most are too chicken to even bring up the subject on facing the problems head-on. They hope that they can just close their eyes and wish very hard, and everything will be fine the next day...

[kkaspar]

Well, the free market doesn't deal with corruption and without any order, the corruption will spread more and more.

I would like to point out to you, that neither does the state deal with corruption in any efficient manner. I would argue, that it generally makes corruption more attractive by providing high incentive to get corrupted. Huge amounts of wealth concentrated in one place and the lack of personal accountability while managing said wealth. The problem of "corruption" can not be solved at this level. And by corruption I mean "institutional behavior not in accord with the mandate given to it by its creator(s)"

The state doesn't necessarily have to be involved in enforcing the regulations, that's the beauty of it. Regulations can be enforced with main information channels by those who control them, and therefor could be in the hand of an private organization.
For instance, if bitcoin.org could also include a department, that does constant auditing on the exchanges and then creating a public review of how cooperative and transparent was the exchange, then we already would have a nice system that would root out the bad seeds, or at least make their life harder. That would be the incentive, and that would also work on a global level.

Places like this forum are complex information channels on where to find something and what to trust. Threats here about the dangers of dealing with MtGox, won't reach the wider audience. To the wider audience all seems to be fine, because the "benevolent" Bitcoin Foundation still guides people to their exchange. The wider audience doesn't make the connection that the CEO of MtGox is actually an important member on the board of Bitcoin Foundation. When bitcoin loses the trust of the wider audience, then there is no future for bitcoin, because the wider audience is the future of bitcoin.
The current core of the bitcoin community is in a vegetative state, doing nothing to keep the integrity of the market system. That needs to change.

[fluidjax]

It currently seems like MtGox is largely in debt, and they are trying to earn back the money they have lost.

Source, evidence.. Anything? or just a guess?

If the company has increasing amount of "technical difficulties" on withdrawals, while the specific and repeating software flaws could be fixed with less resources then the company earns in a week, then it doesn't take senior detective to figure out that something is wrong on what they're claiming. If it's too improbable for technical difficulties to be real, then the probability switches in favor of hidden financial difficulties. And because we are seeing an increased amount of complaints about withdrawals, we can see that the problem isn't being fixed but made worse.

I can't get any evidence without doing a full audit on their entire system, but I do have common sense, that can be used in analyzing suspicious circumstances. I think that it isn't difficulty to see the same thing that I see, but most have a problem of admitting it.
I think it's mostly to do with people wanting to just buy bitcoins low and then sit on their ass, while doing nothing and get rich in the process. When someone points out that there is a problem and something needs to be done to fix it, then people get angry because it means they should get up from their asses and actually do something that could be considered work. So, they just try to ignore the problem, with trying to silence the one that is putting the problem in spotlight. Then you hear the regular demagogy about how free markets don't need any regulations or trustworthy framework, so they can continue to sit on their asses while the free market does everything.
It's similar to the problem that plagues the current global banking system. Everyone are hiding their heads in sand, hoping that problems will fix themselves, but the problems are getting worse and worse. Most are too chicken to even bring up the subject on facing the problems head-on. They hope that they can juTst close their eyes and wish very hard, and everything will be fine the next day...

Though I accept Gox's problem could be related to solvency issues, they could also be technical in nature.
Their failure to fix these problems would indicate incompetance, but based on their history this is also quite possible.

If Gox had solvency issues i would expect staff/Mark  would be making more of an effort to arbitrage the other exchanges.
You may be right and only time aill tell, but there is little evidence only guess work.
My gut feeling is that it is a technical issue (i was fortunate to get out of Gox a month back) lets hope so, for the unfortnate people left waiting.

[billyjoeallen]

EDIT: on second thought, I think this second foundation should be secret, its members benevolently guiding the rest of Bitcoinland through the crumbling of the empire by their application of their knowledge of psychohistory

I get that allusion. I guess my nerd cred is intact!

[isov]

What do you wise men think of that dumb on stamp just some minutes ago? As said many times it seems that good news are just piling on each other and yet the price just stays more or less the same. China deadline played out to be nothing more than FUD quite much i guess? When do you think it's going to break out from this range? Upwards or downwards? Is it going to need a flashcrash like the SR one before a new rally can start? What I have been speculating is that there is now artificial keeping of the price down by some one or more manipulators that know something a regular guy like me doesn't know but it's unconfirmed or something still and are waiting for this whatever matter to clear out before letting the price go rockets.
Edited some typos

[rpietila]

Rpietila, I fully support your efforts in creating another foundation-like institution. Having only one institution representing a decentralized decision-making technology is amusing to me but I would very much like to see competition in the realm of ideas and institutions surrounding Bitcoin. My idea would be having an organization, which is fully transparent in its finances (thanks to the public accounting of the Blockchain), funded by voluntary contribution and which is doing whatever it has publicly stated it will be doing. Maybe embedd that sort of thing into the Blockchain? Just thinking out loud here...

HELL; NO.

There is no more need for self-breeding fatass-wannabe clubs searching for boots to lick in the stolen money realm. We need more in the spirit of Andrew Jackson - an informed, healthy, but unrelenting mistrust of everyone who preys on his neigbor's money, be it government, bank or any other scammer. (He later became President, though.)

There needs to be a clear understanding that the current system is theft. Every time money is printed, it is theft from everyone. There is not so much need to go to bed with criminals, including thiefs. We need to instruct them in the words of Jesus: "A thief should steal no more, but work productively". We have the moral high ground, and now we have the means to advance it.

If someone thinks that the bitcoin commission is not high, please by all means sell your bitcoins to me and go look for a job in the clan of thiefs masquerading as the rightful leadership of nations. By their actions you know them.