rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[ErisDiscordia]

Hey everybody I'm a libertarian anarchist crypto currency supporter! Bitcoin supports my libertarian ideals i am all about freedom and sticking it to the man.

Oh hey, you can't do that though, because it's illegal. The man said so.

I like your style!  

drugs are baaaaaaad. wait, which drugs? The ones which are illegal, of course!

You can learn a lot about a particular society by observing which drugs it forbids and which ones it promotes. What about "our" culture? Promotes: red meat, sugar, caffeine (so you can be a productive obedient worker-drone), nicotine (so you can regulate the frantic pace and cool down a bit), alcohol (so you can get shitfaced and forget how miserable your life is) and tons of chemical drugs made by the white mafia (because business!). That stuff, which has never killed anyone, costs next to nothing to produce and might bend your perspective and induce original thinking? HOLY FUCK IT'S BAD IT SHOULD BE BANNED YOU DRUGGIES!

[bo1ka]

It seems that all of you are saying that the price will drop towards 400$ on the short term. Then when do you think would be the best time to buy some BTC for a newcomer? I've been following this thread with great interest. I currently own 2 BTC and my plan was to buy 16 more on Friday. Then I saw the plunge, then I said to wait a bit and see how it stabilises.

[wendel]

What I actually see on Bitstamp are massive buys of big chunks of coins.
Someone just buys every wall on the way up. I wonder if this is a bulltrap ...

If this continues we are at 1000$ by Friday.
This doesn't look healthy to me.

Thanks
W

[chessnut]

What I actually see on Bitstamp are massive buys of big chunks of coins.
Someone just buys every wall on the way up. I wonder if this is a bulltrap ...

Thanks
W

The demand is suspicious,
either the spike has triggered some kind of opportunistic and coordinated insider buying (I doubt it) or it is building up for a healthy correction/continuation. I doubt we will pass 740 tonight. I am looking for 600.

[EuroTrash]

What I actually see on Bitstamp are massive buys of big chunks of coins.
Someone just buys every wall on the way up. I wonder if this is a bulltrap ...

Thanks
W

The demand is suspicious,
either the spike has triggered some kind of opportunistic and coordinated insider buying (I doubt it) or it is building up for a healthy correction/continuation. I doubt we will pass 740 tonight. I am looking for 600.

It seems to me that you are echoing the forum's feelings.
Then if most people are saying: "I don't trust the price increase anymore, I'm hoping to buy lower" that might as well be a contrary indicator that we have bottomed already.

(in which case I am personally annoyed at pulling my bids just few hours before yesterday's armageddon)

rpietila, what's your call?

[bclcjunkie]

it's not a theory, it's proven.. basic sheeple psychology... you notice there is not much buying even now that bitcoin is somewhat cheaper than it was a week ago.. i gotta admit so far Risto had been spot on many times and the more i look from his perspective the better i understand the market movement and how crowd reacts to it... his trendline analysis is getting interesting... also on top of that it's human psychology 101: once coins shoot up to 800 noobs start seeing 670 as "cheap" and regret it... once it drops to 500 they tend to either panic sell or try to wait for even more drips eventually giving in to bull trap and panic buying on uptrend...frankly took me sometime to discipline myself and avoid a few bull traps myself...

Wow look at the orderbook on stamp and the massive buys yesterday. Still expecting it to trend into $400?

When it finally hits $400, you do not want to buy. You fear for it going to $200 and you losing 50% overnight. Then it is the time to buy

very cunning theory!
I also imagine there will be a factor of greed in play after the spike. who would set a buy order at 400 when you can set it at 350? and why not 300? heck, lets try 250.

[kehtolo]

Just to throw another thought into the ring.. A few pages back someone mentioned that the flash crash yesterday was in ways a bit similar to the SR takedown and subsequent flash crash.

Remember what happened after that? We went on a rally. Support was proved, confidence was gained and it things got progressively more bullish.

I think we could be half-way there to having a similar outcome.

Gox is not gone yet, but it is dying. One after one, the voices in the bitcoin world came out and condemned it yesterday.

Coindesk removed it from its price index and many other similar operations followed suit.

It had been a bad joke for too long, everyone knew, but no-one quite knew the scale or the exact issue.

Yesterday cleared a lot of this up. They could still be insolvent too, we just don't know yet, but the community has seemed to turn it's back on Gox in a big way.
Good! They deserve it! But the job is only half done and there could be more bad (worse) news to come.

I guess my point is, much like the SR takedown helped to sanitise bitcoins image and proved support and increased confidence.

Yesterday's shenanigans could possibly have a similar effect. The general sentiment seems to be, Gox are assholes, shouldn't have said what they said, and they are to blame. Yes there is a flaw / bug in the protocol, but it is not new and has been known about for a long time. Their problems are their own fault.

We rebounded pretty quickly in my book. I sold a bit at 700 anticipating the dip.
We were back there in under 24 hours.
Sentiment looks good, in fact i'd say improved! Maybe we won't see $400 afterall.  

Could that have been the capitulation? Piggy backing on the news? Flash-capitulation anyone?

[chessnut]

Just to throw another thought into the ring.. A few pages back someone mentioned that the flash crash yesterday was in ways a bit similar to the SR takedown and subsequent flash crash.

Remember what happened after that? We went on a rally. Support was proved, confidence was gained and it things got progressively more bullish.

I think we could be half-way there to having a similar outcome.

Gox is not gone yet, but it is dying. One after one, the voices in the bitcoin world came out and condemned it yesterday.

Coindesk removed it from its price index and many other similar operations followed suit.

It had been a bad joke for too long, everyone knew, but no-one quite knew the scale or the exact issue.

Yesterday cleared a lot of this up. They could still be insolvent too, we just don't know yet, but the community has seemed to turn it's back on Gox in a big way.
Good! They deserve it! But the job is only half done and there could be more bad (worse) news to come.

I guess my point is, much like the SR takedown helped to sanitise bitcoins image and proved support and increased confidence.

Yesterday's shenanigans could possibly have a similar effect. The general sentiment seems to be, Gox are assholes, shouldn't have said what they said, and they are to blame. Yes there is a flaw / bug in the protocol, but it is not new and has been known about for a long time. Their problems are their own fault.

We rebounded pretty quickly in my book. I sold a bit at 700 anticipating the dip.
We were back there in under 24 hours.
Sentiment looks good, in fact i'd say improved! Maybe we won't see $400 afterall.  

Could that have been the capitulation? Piggy backing on the news? Flash-capitulation anyone?

Im sure there were people capitulating on that news, rpietila being one of them. but I dont think those investors alone are enough to carry the price higher for longer, because I think investors are very timid at this point. that spike took out all the orders between 600 and 100..... there was really very little in the way relative to what you would expect.
There are many investors that dont have the confidence to discard the fallacies presented by Gox, rich chinese and wall street fat cats are not always the brightest. besides, is there anything really bullish about to affect the price? not for the next couple of weeks. Speculators have only negative aspects to dwell on.

I think the bull run was impressive, Im interested if it passes 750, but Im not taking it seriously. this too easy for happy go lucky speculators...... they are cheering in the troll box.

[magicmexican]

Gox is not gone yet, but it is dying. One after one, the voices in the bitcoin world came out and condemned it yesterday.

I wonder if Gox is just stupid or very cunning with some hidden motives. It should've been obvious for them that blaming bitcoin in general would backfire hard.

Even the basic "Withdrawals still do not work, its technical problems on our end, we are fixing them" update would work better for them in the long run. But instead they've decided to point fingers and spread the fud, knowing that it would cause a crash and damage their reputation even more.

[cAPSLOCK]

But instead they've decided to point fingers and spread the fud, knowing that it would cause a crash and damage their reputation even more.

The only motive for their act is ultimate desperation.

[Pruden]

It looks like more than just a rally. It's a huge fking bidwall, 8 million new dollars on the books, in front of the bottom, overnight. It just rose from a total of 15.5M to 16.5M as I was typing this, almost to ATH. Now the book looks completely warped into the bulls favor. How are you going to get through that? It's going to take an immense pressure, and that huge bid could be could be regenerating the whole time.

Exactly like in mid-june. After some days of stagnation, the huge rally that the imbalance in the order book portended took the price from $100 all the way to $115. That's when the final act of the spring bubble started.

I don't think that we have seen the bottom. The good news is that I feel, thanks to the movement of these days, that we won't have to wait longer than this month to test the validity of my assesment.

[MatTheCat]

Bullshit, all bullshit. Big players want out. So they fake the market with the very USD that they received yesterday from the first wave of selling. How many times this has to happen before you realize? Ask Loaded for details, which he unfortunately cannot give you

LOL!

He trades on Bitfinex of all places and the concept of magic moving liar walls seems to be lost on him.

I must have missed this record breaking Bid wall on Stamp, as there isn't nothing going on there out of the ordinary as far as I can tell.

[isov]

Could it now start to be looking like final capitulation or something? At least there is quite big volume for this past week and if you zoom enough out on the chart it looks like it just might have been long enough to go up. I tend to think that the cycles of rallies are getting faster and more close to each other and on 3day and 1week charts it looks something like last april and beyond that on faster speed?

[rpietila]

Could it now start to be looking like final capitulation or something? At least there is quite big volume for this past week and if you zoom enough out on the chart it looks like it just might have been long enough to go up. I tend to think that the cycles of rallies are getting faster and more close to each other and on 3day and 1week charts it looks something like last april and beyond that on faster speed?

No.

The price is too high relative to the trend (about 0). Currently 400 daily average would suffice.

Also no panic, no desperation.

ADD: And we seem to have some real Bitcoinwide issues at hand. I am surprised why price is so high tbh! I can't withdraw or spend my bitcoin, but I can still sell them at Bitstamp and get fiat out of it.

[podyx]

Risto, you still think btc will be at $300k in the future??

And also are you bullish or bearish now?

[Tzupy]

Could it now start to be looking like final capitulation or something? At least there is quite big volume for this past week and if you zoom enough out on the chart it looks like it just might have been long enough to go up. I tend to think that the cycles of rallies are getting faster and more close to each other and on 3day and 1week charts it looks something like last april and beyond that on faster speed?

The local bottom that the market is experiencing now (or maybe tomorrow) will only be the end of 1 / 3 of wave C. In 2013, it happened around 3rd May at 80$.
After this bottom, there should be 2 ascending sub-sub-waves, 3 descending, another 2 ascending and then the final capitulation, the last 3 sub-sub-waves, with much despair.
But a market collapse due to mass loss of confidence could mess up the wave structure. Let's hope the current issues will be sorted out quickly. I don't want very cheap coins.

[rpietila]

Risto, you still think btc will be at $300k in the future??

And also are you bullish or bearish now?

Hm.. I am starting to feel the fear in me. But it is OK, I have coins in an exchange and I sell them. Then I have fiat and feel good

(It is better to sell while the price is high)

Everybody do according to their own emotions.

[David Rabahy]

Hm.. I am starting to feel the fear in me. But it is OK, I have coins in an exchange and I sell them. Then I have fiat and feel good

(It is better to sell while the price is high)

Everybody do according to their own emotions.

http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5057/

To me it is refreshing to feel fear; it means something important/meaningful is happening.  Something is at risk.  Then when I pause to assess my situation I realize I only staked 2% of my wealth and was going to ride Bitcoin to the top or zero whichever comes first.

There is no reward without risk.  Risk without fear is not real risk.

[MoreFun]

Risto did we have final capitulation from last april bubble (by your rules)?

There were so much talk in the summer about $50 capitulation coins in jan-feb.2014.

[podyx]

Risto, you still think btc will be at $300k in the future??

And also are you bullish or bearish now?

Hm.. I am starting to feel the fear in me. But it is OK, I have coins in an exchange and I sell them. Then I have fiat and feel good

(It is better to sell while the price is high)

Everybody do according to their own emotions.

Then I assume u don't believe bitcoin is going to $300k right?

what is your longterm outlook?