rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[TERA]

I understand about gox enabling withdrawals but what about bitstamp enabling withdrawals? Apparent Bitstamp thinks this means CCMF.

[mmitech]

I think it is going as planned. We will need to spend some time in these levels so that nobody believes that it will go to 800 again in the immediate future.

Unless people believe that it is good to sell the coins for 400, they will not do it Also the buyers need to be tamed to not buy the flashcrashes. Time is an answer to these issues.

Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price.

I've also noticed that open orders down to 500 are pulling out, people believing the price will dip even further ? 

[creekbore]

I think it is going as planned. We will need to spend some time in these levels so that nobody believes that it will go to 800 again in the immediate future.

Unless people believe that it is good to sell the coins for 400, they will not do it Also the buyers need to be tamed to not buy the flashcrashes. Time is an answer to these issues.

Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price.

But a significant proportion of coins from both Stamp and Gox are going to be moved into old storage, as people realise holding 'wealth' on exchanges is more risky than they previously thought. 

This will mean fewer coins in circulation which should negate the actions of those who want to 'cash out'.

[vokain]

I think it is going as planned. We will need to spend some time in these levels so that nobody believes that it will go to 800 again in the immediate future.

Unless people believe that it is good to sell the coins for 400, they will not do it Also the buyers need to be tamed to not buy the flashcrashes. Time is an answer to these issues.

Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price.


ADD: If anyone thought that Bitstamp is somehow Slovenian, the following excerpt from open orders shatters the belief:

Sell   Feb. 14, 2014, noon   30.00000000   $648.20   $19,446.00   Open

It is impossible to think that anyone else but the British would have specifically coded their software to show "noon" for 12:00 GMT.

Probably there's also "midnight", try it out  

They're British but they have a Slovenian banking partner. You can  also tell by their wiring information if it's not somewhere on their website

[mmitech]

I think it is going as planned. We will need to spend some time in these levels so that nobody believes that it will go to 800 again in the immediate future.

Unless people believe that it is good to sell the coins for 400, they will not do it Also the buyers need to be tamed to not buy the flashcrashes. Time is an answer to these issues.

Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price.


ADD: If anyone thought that Bitstamp is somehow Slovenian, the following excerpt from open orders shatters the belief:

Sell   Feb. 14, 2014, noon   30.00000000   $648.20   $19,446.00   Open

It is impossible to think that anyone else but the British would have specifically coded their software to show "noon" for 12:00 GMT.

Probably there's also "midnight", try it out  

They're British but they have a Slovenian banking partner. You can  also tell by their wiring information if it's not somewhere on their website

they are Slovenians, I know most some them personally (met in Bitcoin meetings here in Slovenia), starting from the founder, it is true that their operation is based in UK, I think it has something to do with Legal certainty in UK than in Slovenia...

but this doesn't matter, what matters most to me is the strong vision they have, and their consistence on improving their communication with the customer and the timely efficient service and the simplicity of the site that brought the success.

I personally, If I would change my Job to start dealing with Bitcoin as a career, I would be more than happy to work for them...

[MatTheCat]

I think it is going as planned. We will need to spend some time in these levels so that nobody believes that it will go to 800 again in the immediate future.

Unless people believe that it is good to sell the coins for 400, they will not do it Also the buyers need to be tamed to not buy the flashcrashes. Time is an answer to these issues.

Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price.

Being a bear who never bought in on the crash, as much as I would like the emboldened statement above to be true, this bounce is occurring on about as high volume on Bitstamp as I can remember.

If this can test and hold above $700, this could be the trend reversal.

[rpietila]

What makes you think that trend reversal should occur on high volume on this short a timescale?

We are not clear yet. I sold between 650-700 and have more sales going on. I have admittedly always been early with my selling during this bear trend, but now I am only selling the coins I bought back cheaper.

Seems to be a violent reaction to the oversold condition.

ADD: You have to take into account the risk that you are wrong. In normal conditions, the risk is that you lose out on an explosive upside. Here it is that you lose out on a dip to $102 or $302, which already happened in other exchanges. Under certain scenarios, BS will join the crowd, and you double your coins. Under no scenario, it is going to ATH overnight.

I also presume that BS reaction was exacerbated by the unwillingness of people to deposit when there is no withdrawal, which makes it prone to a demand shock.

[MatTheCat]

What makes you think that trend reversal should occur on high volume on this short a timescale?

We are not clear yet. I sold between 650-700 and have more sales going on. I have admittedly always been early with my selling during this bear trend, but now I am only selling the coins I bought back cheaper.

Seems to be a violent reaction to the oversold condition.

All will be revealed in the coming hours. Bitcoin right now is wildly overbought......a trend along the $700 line followed by a brutal sell-off, or just a plain old brutal sell-off that that skips the water-testing trend phase and i guess you will be proven right. But anything less than a vicious sell-off down to low $600s, high $500s and I would be tempted to change my stance from bear to bull...at least for a little bit to see how things progress.

On the otherhand, from my TA 101 skills, I wouldn't expect the bottom in such a long winded (in Bitcoin terms) bear trend to come with such a flash and a bang, but rather be ground out over a period of time, offering plenty opportunity to pick up coins near the true basement. This holds true for most markets that are in the condition that Bitstamp has been in for the past 5-6 weeks and certainly holds true for the bear stagnation periods in the aftermath of the June 2011 and April 2013 crashes. If $540 does indeed turn out to be the bottom, market participants would have had a tiny frame of opportunity to pick up coins close to this range on both recent occasions when this price range was visited.

[cAPSLOCK]

Be wary for Bitstamp price. It is much higher than the other functioning exchanges now. If Gox finds all the bitcoins and withdrawals are resumed, they will be sold in other exchanges (bitstamp being the only one with fiat withdraw option) with massive damage to bitcoin price.

I don't think Gox is going to "find all the coins".  At least I think it is likely they lost quite a bit.  That plus the seizure of their bank account and regulatory problems means they might have to replace rather than find, both coins AND USD.

I think the Mt Gox price reflects the overall sentiment that they may be insolvent...  I don't think the arbitrage will last very long if it turns out they are not.

This is a rare opportunity, but the trick is divining what the actual opportunity is.

[rpietila]

What makes you think that trend reversal should occur on high volume on this short a timescale?

We are not clear yet. I sold between 650-700 and have more sales going on. I have admittedly always been early with my selling during this bear trend, but now I am only selling the coins I bought back cheaper.

Seems to be a violent reaction to the oversold condition.

All will be revealed in the coming hours. Bitcoin right now is wildly overbought......a trend along the $700 line followed by a brutal sell-off, or just a plain old brutal sell-off that that skips the water-testing trend phase and i guess you will be proven right. But anything less than a vicious sell-off down to low $600s, high $500s and I would be tempted to change my stance from bear to bull...at least for a little bit to see how things progress.

On the otherhand, from my TA 101 skills, I wouldn't expect the bottom in such a long winded (in Bitcoin terms) bear trend to come with such a flash and a bang, but rather be ground out over a period of time, offering plenty opportunity to pick up coins near the true basement. This holds true for most markets that are in the condition that Bitstamp has been in for the past 5-6 weeks and certainly holds true for the bear stagnation periods in the aftermath of the June 2011 and April 2013 crashes. If $540 does indeed turn out to be the bottom, market participants would have had a tiny frame of opportunity to pick up coins close to this range on both recent occasions when this price range was visited.

I am fully prepared to wait until the end of March to see the final capitulation. Many things can happen meanwhile - we can see a rally, for example. In end of December, I sold a lot at 600-700, followed by a rally to 990. Still in the grand scheme of things my prognosis seems to have been accurate so far.

The daily average of Dec 18 (the day of the great dip to 382), was 527. Today is the lowest daily average since that, at 615. Trendline is at 682, so we are a meager -0.045 below the trend. Last capitulation bottom was -0.341.

Just assuming that we get to the same oversold condition of -0.341 in March 31, 2014, the figures would be:
- trendline price: 938
- actual price (daily average): 428

[Kramerc]

The more time passes, the more I think Tzupy's wave count might be spot on, and we are in the 2nd 1/3 of wave C. So we're going up a little bit before going down a lot, again.

[MatTheCat]

I am fully prepared to wait until the end of March to see the final capitulation. Many things can happen meanwhile - we can see a rally, for example. In end of December, I sold a lot at 600-700, followed by a rally to 990. Still in the grand scheme of things my prognosis seems to have been accurate so far.

The daily average of Dec 18 (the day of the great dip to 382), was 527. Today is the lowest daily average since that, at 615. Trendline is at 682, so we are a meager -0.045 below the trend. Last capitulation bottom was -0.341.

Just assuming that we get to the same oversold condition of -0.341 in March 31, 2014, the figures would be:
- trendline price: 938
- actual price (daily average): 428

Fair do's.

You have certainly played a blinder with your forecasts since you called a sub $500 crash back in December when Bitcoin was still over $1000.

Now that the annoyance at myself for not capitalising on this opportunity has subsided, and I am looking at the charts with a more relaxed frame of mind (although I don't do exponential trendlines or anything else that involves getting spreadsheets out), I suspect that you may be right. If the manic reactionary psychology has died down in me (who never participated in bounce), I am guessing similar biochemical normalisations will be occurring in the heads of other Bitcoin market participants......

....and then there are the 40K BTC stolen SR2 coins at large. If the thieves are stupid, these will be cashed out rapidly and the market will crash horribly. But more likely, this will represent a gradual and steady selling pressure over the coming weeks.

[bitrider]

I am guessing similar biochemical normalisations will be occurring in the heads of other Bitcoin market participants......

Exactly. And then the opposite biochemical brew will begin to dominate (those neuro peptides of grief, despair and depression). And once the chemical mind can barely remember what the bull, dopamine chemistry felt like - and begins to believe that it was all an illusion and delusion, and attention/funds drifts to more exciting pleasure potential activities....out of nowhere will arise the full-on hit of crack that sends all into ecstasy once again....the chemical mind once again believing that "we got it now" and this too will never end.  And so it goes...

To ride this dragon and still make wise decisions takes lots of practice, detachment and desensitization. Some will never be able to do it, and will be left in painful spasms on the sidewalk - and some will ride the wave in equanimity and mastery. And most of us somewhere in between. 

[conspirosphere.tk]

To ride this dragon and still make wise decisions takes lots of practice, detachment and desensitization.

for me this crash has been another lesson about the need of being bearish when you feel overbullish. But i'm not sure if i will ever learn it.
it takes balls even to sell at an ATH.

[rpietila]

it takes balls even to sell at an ATH.

Not to mention that most of the time it indeed is stupid

[micalith]

it takes balls even to sell at an ATH.

Not to mention that most of the time it indeed is stupid

hah! exactly

(sorry, a non-post, but I'm an avid lurker of this thread)

[hdbuck]

I am fully prepared to wait until the end of March to see the final capitulation. Many things can happen meanwhile - we can see a rally, for example. In end of December, I sold a lot at 600-700, followed by a rally to 990. Still in the grand scheme of things my prognosis seems to have been accurate so far.

The daily average of Dec 18 (the day of the great dip to 382), was 527. Today is the lowest daily average since that, at 615. Trendline is at 682, so we are a meager -0.045 below the trend. Last capitulation bottom was -0.341.

Just assuming that we get to the same oversold condition of -0.341 in March 31, 2014, the figures would be:
- trendline price: 938
- actual price (daily average): 428

Fair do's.

You have certainly played a blinder with your forecasts since you called a sub $500 crash back in December when Bitcoin was still over $1000.

Now that the annoyance at myself for not capitalising on this opportunity has subsided, and I am looking at the charts with a more relaxed frame of mind (although I don't do exponential trendlines or anything else that involves getting spreadsheets out), I suspect that you may be right. If the manic reactionary psychology has died down in me (who never participated in bounce), I am guessing similar biochemical normalisations will be occurring in the heads of other Bitcoin market participants......

....and then there are the 40K BTC stolen SR2 coins at large. If the thieves are stupid, these will be cashed out rapidly and the market will crash horribly. But more likely, this will represent a gradual and steady selling pressure over the coming weeks.

you really think that the thieves who managed theirselves to rob those coins would actually have done it just to get fiat?

[chessnut]

An impressive rally of nearly $200 on bitstamp probably caused by both the 500 figure and renewed ability to withdraw.

I suppose that it should take at least 24hours before the pressure of buy orders of those eager to withdraw are is satisfied.

$200 is a fair move and should cap the rally, although perhaps we will have a bargain selling opportunity in a few hours creeping up to 700-730.

The move should be capped by 750, a weekly point of resistance. It would take a lot of force to drive it over that point, 800 being critical resistance.

Too many people are calling for a long term bottom at $500, their hopes have been strengthened at this point. The longs may take a few days
to unwind and retest 500.

If the move lacks momentum I would expect a wedge to form above 500 before ultimately piercing it.

[MatTheCat]

you really think that the thieves who managed theirselves to rob those coins would actually have done it just to get fiat?

Thieves tend to be far more interested in the bottom line other than ideological values and anyone who doesn't heavily involve themselves with following this market would take one look at it and think, "it's a sell". The fact that we may be on the cusp, or indeed the middle of a trend reversal may not occur to thief, technologically adept or otherwise. Their main concerns however will more likely be how to convert thier Bitcoin into fiat without raising flags all over the place. For this reason alone, I would expect the sell-off pressure of these stolen 10K coins (or whatever the true figure is) to be gradual as opposed to sudden.

Too many people are calling for a long term bottom at $500, their hopes have been strengthened at this point. The longs may take a few days
to unwind and retest 500.

If the move lacks momentum I would expect a wedge to form above 500 before ultimately piercing it.

You think?

What strikes me most about this rally, is that for the first time in a long time, the volume on the upsurge was very large. Notably larger than on the previous bounce. Having said that, we still haven't breached and confirmed support at/above any of the schoolboy resistance levels and the large volume could be attributed to a delirious reaction to having the shadow of suspended BTC withdrawals lifted from Bitstamp. The next few 4 hour bars should provide a better picture.

[chessnut]

Yes I think give it 4 hours.

a rally of $200 from 500 is a nice move, and it must consolidate.

the volume is impressive, although the volume distribution of the move tells a story about it's indecisiveness.