rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[seleme]

127 acres, jeez, that's what you call privacy.

It's pretty cheap for million euro to be honest. Building(s), land, history..

http://www.arcovara.ee/en/malla

It is a very good purchase. I am not familiar at all with the Estonian real estate market, but it is apparent to anyone with experience in real estate that the value is there. Having said this I suspect the real hard part here was not the purchase of this property, but rather getting the million euro out of MTGox.  

The amount of land is what makes it specially good purchase.

[Siegfried]

I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.



Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.

That looks incredible.  Are you planning to use it as a residence as well or will it function as a gathering point for elite BTC-ers?

Bitcoin Bilderberger

[Siegfried]

127 acres, jeez, that's what you call privacy.

It's pretty cheap for million euro to be honest. Building(s), land, history..

http://www.arcovara.ee/en/malla

Only one million? That is shocking. I thought it would be more like ten million. I might even be able to afford that in the not too distant future...

[chessnut]

rpietila - I hope you build lots of secret pathways, boobie-traps and hiding places that lead to clues and fragments of information that unlock keys and passwords to all your hidden treasure. make it a real mystery mansion! also make one room a super computer and mine some coins!

anyway, looks like the time to buy is approaching in the coming days, if not only to get the hell out of the exchanges.

I was correct to predict a wedge over 500, and it has just broken a major trend line and is exploring new lows.

two things to keep in mind from an EW point of view, this wave C must pass the extreme of wave B. (431) and some. I believe that we will therefore see $3xx coins.

also, having broken out from a wedge, the EW analysis implies that the coming movement is a terminal movement (as we hopefully guess). This is super exciting, having seen the charts obey some really fundamental EW principles so far.

for the sake of alternation, I expect that lows will be retested after the coming low.

[isov]

Congrats for your purchase Risto! Seems like a nice house with a proper yard also:) So what is this place going to be like? Invitation only or can everyone interested in bitcoins come and pay a visit? Will definitely visit next summer if you allow guys like me in:D Not too far from Finland. How about this Gox think, are they now really going to close the shop and go underground with everyones coins and fiat? I guess atleast THIS can now be counted for the final capitulation and after laying low for awhile we can finally have some hope of and upward movement after the dust settles and all the blood is washed away from the streets. 

[seleme]

127 acres, jeez, that's what you call privacy.

It's pretty cheap for million euro to be honest. Building(s), land, history..

http://www.arcovara.ee/en/malla

Only one million? That is shocking. I thought it would be more like ten million. I might even be able to afford that in the not too distant future...

yeah, it's cheap but not really 10 millions. You can buy some great stuff in France for 2-3 millions.

http://www.sifex.co.uk/PropertySearch.asp

[doctor877]

Fuck you're good.

[heslo]

Gotta say mate. I do love your analysis and advice on here. Would be a shame to lose your input on this forum

[mmitech]

I wish if I had more FIAT in stamp now.... I would be really happy, I waited for this day for 3 weeks now and I used all the $45K I had there

Mine was invested during the last hours at midprice $448. So the 2-month long quest is over. Gained about BTC400, though my loss of BTC250 in Mt.Gox should be debited from this amount.

Bitcoin, you may now rise!

I will go to my castle and occasionally post if there is something important.

my total average is $455 now, I was thinking about investing more money, but I was having second thoughts as I sent yesterday a letter to quit my job and start working on various bitcoin projects professionally, so I had to make sure to keep some FIAT reserve in my Bank account for "you never know" case....

But I am pleased in general, I am sorry for the past misunderstanding and congrats for your castle, enjoy.... hope to be hearing from you more often...

[isov]

Wow rpietila, that is super cool place! 

You need Rolls-Royce too! Maybe Phantom? 

http://suchen.mobile.de/auto-inserat/rolls-royce-phantom-aus-liebhaberhand-sehr-gepflegt-starnberg/184545291.html?lang=en

Please hire me as your chaffeur if you do this, I enjoy driving nice cars and I'm a good driver also:D Hope you stay on the forum and still update your TA and predictions!

[TERA]

Hi rpietila. What are your thoughts on the sudden and short nature of this drop and subsequent rise? I expected a much longer and drawn out drop, or drift, down the bottom. It doesn't seem like there has really been enough time and volume to actually confirm the bottom (even if it is bottom). It dropped from 640 to 400 over the span of one day. Compare this with 2013 when it dropped from 100 to 66 over the span of a week or two and spent 3 days testing the bottom of 66. Perhaps it needs to spend more time trading sideways before it can recover. It might test that bottom again, or, that might not even be the bottom and this might merely be the first leg of a downtrend. Would that be ok with you? What are you thoughts?

[eboard10]

rpietila - I hope you build lots of secret pathways, boobie-traps and hiding places that lead to clues and fragments of information that unlock keys and passwords to all your hidden treasure. make it a real mystery mansion! also make one room a super computer and mine some coins!

anyway, looks like the time to buy is approaching in the coming days, if not only to get the hell out of the exchanges.

I was correct to predict a wedge over 500, and it has just broken a major trend line and is exploring new lows.

two things to keep in mind from an EW point of view, this wave C must pass the extreme of wave B. (431) and some. I believe that we will therefore see $3xx coins.

also, having broken out from a wedge, the EW analysis implies that the coming movement is a terminal movement (as we hopefully guess). This is super exciting, having seen the charts obey some really fundamental EW principles so far.

for the sake of alternation, I expect that lows will be retested after the coming low.

Good analysis chessnut. If it wasn't for this thread I probably would have bought a lot more at $600+ and I'm glad I didn't. Keep up with the good work!

[isov]

Hi rpietila. What are your thoughts on the sudden and short nature of this drop and subsequent rise? I expected a much longer and drawn out drop, or drift, down the bottom. It doesn't seem like there has really been enough time and volume to actually confirm the bottom (even if it is bottom). It dropped from 640 to 400 over the span of one day. Compare this with 2013 when it dropped from 100 to 66 over the span of a week or two and spent 3 days testing the bottom of 66. Perhaps it needs to spend more time trading sideways before it can recover. It might test that bottom again, or, that might not even be the bottom and this might merely be the first leg of a downtrend. Would that be ok with you? What are you thoughts?

First leg of downtrend? haven't we been trending down for quite a while now? But yeah, I would say it feels like we are not going much lower anymore since going through 382$ would really be bad... Also the one day macd has been on the edge of turning green for atleast two times now and both times just on the edge a new big drop has occured.

[rpietila]

Hi rpietila. What are your thoughts on the sudden and short nature of this drop and subsequent rise? I expected a much longer and drawn out drop, or drift, down the bottom. It doesn't seem like there has really been enough time and volume to actually confirm the bottom (even if it is bottom). It dropped from 640 to 400 over the span of one day. Compare this with 2013 when it dropped from 100 to 66 over the span of a week or two and spent 3 days testing the bottom of 66. Perhaps it needs to spend more time trading sideways before it can recover. It might test that bottom again, or, that might not even be the bottom and this might merely be the first leg of a downtrend. Would that be ok with you? What are you thoughts?

I think this was the bottom, and we are not going any lower (at least not really). A longish bottoming process in 400-500 range will have to confirm it in the following days though.

Everything fits in the final capitulation scenario. Now just make sure you load up 100% before we start going up. Next target $7000 by Midsummer (if it happens, I lose a certain bet.. )

[mmitech]

Hi rpietila. What are your thoughts on the sudden and short nature of this drop and subsequent rise? I expected a much longer and drawn out drop, or drift, down the bottom. It doesn't seem like there has really been enough time and volume to actually confirm the bottom (even if it is bottom). It dropped from 640 to 400 over the span of one day. Compare this with 2013 when it dropped from 100 to 66 over the span of a week or two and spent 3 days testing the bottom of 66. Perhaps it needs to spend more time trading sideways before it can recover. It might test that bottom again, or, that might not even be the bottom and this might merely be the first leg of a downtrend. Would that be ok with you? What are you thoughts?

I think this was the bottom, and we are not going any lower (at least not really). A longish bottoming process in 400-500 range will have to confirm it in the following days though.

Everything fits in the final capitulation scenario. Now just make sure you load up 100% before we start going up. Next target $7000 by Midsummer (if it happens, I lose a certain bet.. )

dont you think we need a clear picture from the Gox situation (beside the TA) to move on ?  what are your thoughts about gox anyway, do you think they just run up with the money ? I have a feeling that this will turn better than we all think....

[eboard10]

I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.



Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.

Congratz on your purchase rpietila! I like the concept of forming a Bitcoin retreat centre, for some reason it reminds me of Gurdjieff's Institute at Le Prieure at Fontainebleau back in the '20s.

[chessnut]

Rpietila, I must doubt that this is the bottom. look at the daily chart, this is just one big red candle stick. any other movement of comparable significance took 3 days to resolve.

I believe we must pass 431 and some.

Look a the chart on a 15min scale, there is a wedge forming between 505 and 431. this is the end of a third wave (the most aggressive species) which is followed by a fourth (correction) and then a fifth to cap the larger movement at all time lows. the most reliable rule of EW analysis is that the fourth wave will not surpass the extreme of the fourth wave of one lower fractal. this is the 500 level, a doubly important level. there are desperate people waiting at 500. fourth waves are typically wedges.

I do believe the night is not over, there will be a fifth wave that trickles down to 400, probably less. we need to bottom in mid 300s in order for wave C to exceed the price extreme of wave B.

we will see in the next 12 hours.


Lest we forget that the yankees are yet to wake up!

[Mythul]

I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.



Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.

Congratz on your purchase rpietila! I like the concept of forming a Bitcoin retreat centre, for some reason it reminds me of Gurdjieff's Institute at Le Prieure at Fontainebleau back in the '20s.

Congratz on your purchase rpietila !

[eboard10]

Rpietila, I must doubt that this is the bottom. look at the daily chart, this is just one big red candle stick. any other movement of comparable significance took 3 days to resolve.

I believe we must pass 431 and some.

Look a the chart on a 15min scale, there is a wedge forming between 505 and 431. this is the end of a third wave (the most aggressive species) which is followed by a fourth (correction) and then a fifth to cap the larger movement at all time lows. the most reliable rule of EW analysis is that the fourth wave will not surpass the extreme of the fourth wave of one lower fractal. this is the 500 level, a doubly important level. there are desperate people waiting at 500. fourth waves are typically wedges.

I do believe the night is not over, there will be a fifth wave that trickles down to 400, probably less. we need to bottom in mid 300s in order for wave C to exceed the price extreme of wave B.

we will see in the next 12 hours.


Lest we forget that the yankees are yet to wake up!

But the price already bottomed at $400 on Bitstamp, passing the $430 mark. Or are you looking at BTCe?

[rpietila]

dont you think we need a clear picture from the Gox situation (beside the TA) to move on ?  what are your thoughts about gox anyway, do you think they just run up with the money ? I have a feeling that this will turn better than we all think....

I didn't say that we will move on, but I also don't think that sub-500 will last for very long. Better buy now.

The stability will be found around 500, or 600, 650, 700 is anyone's guess. But my gut says 400 is too low for stability, there are also bullish forces in play, for example many of the Gox depositors will need to decide whether to replenish some of their stock.

Anyway no matter how low we go now, the capitulation is triggered, which means that once we start to go up, there is no looking back