rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[chessnut]

But the price already bottomed at $400 on Bitstamp, passing the $430 mark. Or are you looking at BTCe?
[/quote]

yeah I am looking at BTCe, Bitstamp is a little different. there was a $40 gap between stamp and BTCe today, and a $100 gap between china and BTCe. The Huobi charts are not oversold. I htink that is where the last push will come from, china.

Rpietilla - is that a wink wink nudge nudge that the Vassal of the Mighty Goat has begun to pump?

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[rpietila]

Rpietila, I must doubt that this is the bottom. look at the daily chart, this is just one big red candle stick. any other movement of comparable significance took 3 days to resolve.

I believe we must pass 431 and some.

Look a the chart on a 15min scale, there is a wedge forming between 505 and 431. this is the end of a third wave (the most aggressive species) which is followed by a fourth (correction) and then a fifth to cap the larger movement at all time lows. the most reliable rule of EW analysis is that the fourth wave will not surpass the extreme of the fourth wave of one lower fractal. this is the 500 level, a doubly important level. there are desperate people waiting at 500. fourth waves are typically wedges.

I do believe the night is not over, there will be a fifth wave that trickles down to 400, probably less. we need to bottom in mid 300s in order for wave C to exceed the price extreme of wave B.

we will see in the next 12 hours.

This is Bitcoin. There is no realistic place to set the price. Gox set the low of 91 and is now down. BTCe was 102. Bitstamp now 400, after some analysts questioned the validity of 382 because Gox that time was 445.

Daily average low of Bitstamp in December was 517(!). Today is lower, so counts as the final wave down for me.

^- It is a mess. Buy your coins at 400-500 if you can and don't count the waves when there are cheap coins around and you can buy.

[rpietila]

Rpietilla - is that a wink wink nudge nudge that the Vassal of the Mighty Goat has begun to pump?

I never enjoyed being a bear, and probably hardly made BTC1,000 with my calls since I was right all the time but execution was complicated..

[TERA]

What if trendline analysis and patterns from the past fail to predict the future because the present is not the past and a logarithmic increase of 10 times per year is mathematically impossible to sustain.

[Miz4r]

Rpietilla - is that a wink wink nudge nudge that the Vassal of the Mighty Goat has begun to pump?

I never enjoyed being a bear, and probably hardly made BTC1,000 with my calls since I was right all the time but execution was complicated..

Oh you only made a thousand BTC profit from this, what a shame... I never even had 1000 BTC in total lol, not even half of that.

[rpietila]

What if trendline analysis and patterns from the past fail to predict the future because the present is not the past and a logarithmic increase of 10 times per year is mathematically impossible to sustain.

Weren't you also a bear? BUY NOW.

Fact is that they did, quite exactly. Best traders made a lot of money and even average ones came out ahead.

[rpietila]

Rpietilla - is that a wink wink nudge nudge that the Vassal of the Mighty Goat has begun to pump?

I never enjoyed being a bear, and probably hardly made BTC1,000 with my calls since I was right all the time but execution was complicated..

Oh you only made a thousand BTC profit from this, what a shame... I never even had 1000 BTC in total lol, not even half of that.

Thank you. It is the delicate balance of risk and security.

[podyx]

What if trendline analysis and patterns from the past fail to predict the future because the present is not the past and a logarithmic increase of 10 times per year is mathematically impossible to sustain.

Of course that trendline will be slowed down eventually but its very possible to see x10 for this year and maybe 2015 aswell

edit: rpietila, mind telling us how many btc u got in total?  

[sumantso]

I hope there is another leg down to cross into $300s (yes, getting greedier )

[hdbuck]

I hope there is another leg down to cross into $300s (yes, getting greedier )

hell yeah but i also hope it gets to $600s first so i can shotrrrrrrr

[sumantso]

I hope there is another leg down to cross into $300s (yes, getting greedier )

hell yeah but i also hope it gets to 600 first so i can shotrrrrrrr

$600 is way to optimistic right now.

If it does I will shotr too.

[Queeq]

I think this kind of statement depicts the transformation of mind which is going on in bitcoin community.
http://newsbtc.com/2014/02/24/republished-joint-statement-regarding-mt-gox/
So I guess we would not go much lower or it would not last long. So better buy now around 450.

[Miz4r]

Watch out for the short squeeze guys, can be painful.

[chessnut]

Just bought back in @500. nobody turns down sound advice from Rpietila the Vassal of the Mighty Goat.

and if it hits 350, well I wanted those coins out now anyway.

this movement is the result of a wedge, the coil before the last breath of a wave. when we pass 600, that to me will be a green light to the next all time highs.

give it 3 days to bottom, if it has not done so already.

good to be back in coins.

[e4xit]

Just bought back in @500. nobody turns down sound advice from Rpietila the Vassal of the Mighty Goat.

 

[xxnewbiecoinerxx]

I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.



Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.

Very impressive! I've been watching your thread for a long time although I haven't been active on this forum. I'm sad to hear that your thinking about leaving the forum, so I just want to thank you for the quality of the posts that you have provided and wish you the best.

+1

[porcupine87]

Rpietila, I must doubt that this is the bottom. look at the daily chart, this is just one big red candle stick. any other movement of comparable significance took 3 days to resolve.

I believe we must pass 431 and some.

Look a the chart on a 15min scale, there is a wedge forming between 505 and 431. this is the end of a third wave (the most aggressive species) which is followed by a fourth (correction) and then a fifth to cap the larger movement at all time lows. the most reliable rule of EW analysis is that the fourth wave will not surpass the extreme of the fourth wave of one lower fractal. this is the 500 level, a doubly important level. there are desperate people waiting at 500. fourth waves are typically wedges.

I do believe the night is not over, there will be a fifth wave that trickles down to 400, probably less. we need to bottom in mid 300s in order for wave C to exceed the price extreme of wave B.

we will see in the next 12 hours.

This is Bitcoin. There is no realistic place to set the price. Gox set the low of 91 and is now down. BTCe was 102. Bitstamp now 400, after some analysts questioned the validity of 382 because Gox that time was 445.

Daily average low of Bitstamp in December was 517(!). Today is lower, so counts as the final wave down for me.

^- It is a mess. Buy your coins at 400-500 if you can and don't count the waves when there are cheap coins around and you can buy.

So you mean the TA could not forecast the guy on btc-e which sold 8000coins at once or that the gox price will get to 1/5 of the stamp/btc-e price?

[rpietila]

This is Bitcoin. There is no realistic place to set the price. Gox set the low of 91 and is now down. BTCe was 102. Bitstamp now 400, after some analysts questioned the validity of 382 because Gox that time was 445.

Daily average low of Bitstamp in December was 517(!). Today is lower, so counts as the final wave down for me.

^- It is a mess. Buy your coins at 400-500 if you can and don't count the waves when there are cheap coins around and you can buy.

So you mean the TA could not forecast the guy on btc-e which sold 8000coins at once or that the gox price will get to 1/5 of the stamp/btc-e price?

Because these things are outside of the normal TA applicability (outliers, "black swans"), you should be reasonable when demanding that "this wave has to go lower than 382" for example. If it does in a daily chart, it is good enough. Unless you want to risk being left behind.

[TERA]

What if trendline analysis and patterns from the past fail to predict the future because the present is not the past and a logarithmic increase of 10 times per year is mathematically impossible to sustain.

Weren't you also a bear? BUY NOW.

Fact is that they did, quite exactly. Best traders made a lot of money and even average ones came out ahead.

I did buy. I bought $400, but just sold $520. I will rebuy on 4 hour macd.

[rpietila]

I did buy. I bought $400, but just sold $520. I will rebuy on 4 hour macd.

Why are you not already richer than me?