rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[seleme]

Building definitely exists and it was on the market for 960 000 EUR, I posted a link to that sale earlier.

[wobber]

Your gonna destroy the beautiful lawn with that pavement up to the gate.

I suggest having the road some 50m near the gate and then a red carpet, having guests to walk barefoot on it.

[Vigil]

I guess he took his time to make a trip to nearby Estonia and checked it up, you don't pay 1 mil. eur for an image  

It surely might need some restoration, it's pretty cheap.

True... just pointing out that the building is really crumbling and a dingy grey color. The yellow and all those colors were added by Photoshop.  

What exactly are you trying to accomplish? Get an invite?   I could suggest better methods....

Of course I had it photoshoped right away, how else could the craftsmen know how to repair it?

That the building exists, you can easily find from wikipedia and google maps "Malla, Estonia".

Hey, I never said it didn't exist, I was just pointing out that it didn't exist in the form you presented it.

I would like to hear these other methods, but it will be a while before my bitcoin holdings will allow me to visit - especially since the last coins I bought just disappeared via Gox.

[thatbluedude]

That is some serious Fixxer-Upper Work Rpietila! Are you sure you want to do that?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/05/Malla_m%C3%B5isa_peahoone_2012.jpg
(Hi-REZ image)

well it kinda does make it look more like a castle (to play counts and knights in).

[checkers6676]

What exactly are you trying to accomplish? Get an invite?  I could suggest better methods....

drinks on me, just tell me when to come. you'll always have a place to stay in New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S. during Mardi Gras season, i can show ya a god time

[CookieFactory]

That didn't smell like capitulation but I know nothing.

[TERA]

Hey wasn't it rpetelia or someone in here who said "the recovery can't just happen with a flash and a bang"? That looked like a flash and a bang to me. Probably a short squeeze. I can't imagine that the entire 32% range of 400-525 is just going to be hit once for 12 hours and then never seen again. That would be like if in 2013 it went from 66 straight to 86 but this actually took a week.

[MatTheCat]

Hey wasn't it rpetelia or someone in here who said "the recovery can't just happen with a flash and a bang"? That looked like a flash and a bang to me. Probably a short squeeze. I can't imagine that the entire 32% range of 400-525 is just going to be hit once for 12 hours and then never seen again. That would be like if in 2013 it went from 66 straight to 86 but this actually took a week.

Ah good. Your active. I was looking for advice from a trader on here (who isn't a complete halfwit).

What is your view on the next 12 hours in Bitcoin? To me, 750 looks a sure bet, and beyond that lies 780 which will prove a very strong resistance level due to the vast level of liquidity that the 10K whale tricked the automated bot traders into buying into. I have been long since $490, and soon I go to my kip. Now, I am of the opinion that we definitely will see a retracement possibly right back into the $400's before we get out the $500s. Question is, is there enough strength in the market to get up to this $779 level (many people might not know exactly why this is likely to prove a very strong resistance level) or will the retracement kick in at a lower price level?

Having a better idea of how this might play out will make the difference between me going to bed with an open position, or closing at best opportunity before I get my head down. The simple indicators that I use are in no way suggesting great rising strength in this market, although the 4hr MACD is moving towards the crossover point.

What your take?

P.S. I said that bottom would not happen with a flash and a bang, but with a whimper, and I cautiously stand by that.

EDIT: I sold at $548. Either those gargantuan Ask walls on Stamp largely consist of liar walls or this market reverses here, as it would require a level of buying power in the market that I am just not feeling to eat through those.....still interested in your (or anyone else who isn't a half-wit) take though.

EDIT 2: I am being proven totally wrong just 2 minutes later.

[sgbett]

Isn't trading fun!

[MatTheCat]

Isn't trading fun!

Yeah.....great fun, especially when the general trend is behaving so predictably.

I just turned ~1100 USD from a 20 BTC trade. Had I waited two minutes it would have been 400 more, but all in all, not bad for a days work.

Got considerably more than that from my short yesterday as well. If I could do this on a daily basis, I would have to give up the day-job.

Being caught with the pants down however, is not much fun at all.....we have shot up dramatically without any meaningful correction since the bottom at 400, and a reversal must come, but when?

[seleme]

Last 2 crashes reversal came after 250-300$ rises  

I got caught in first of them heavily after buying on the very bottom, and sold too early in 2nd one too, that won't happen this time.

[sgbett]

Isn't trading fun!

Yeah.....great fun, especially when the general trend is behaving so predictably.

I just turned ~1100 USD from a 20 BTC trade. Had I waited two minutes it would have been 400 more, but all in all, not bad for a days work.

Got considerably more than that from my short yesterday as well. If I could do this on a daily basis, I would have to give up the day-job.

Being caught with the pants down however, is not much fun at all.....we have shot up dramatically without any meaningful correction since the bottom at 400, and a reversal must come, but when?

I dunno, I'm no trader I do ok though...

[MatTheCat]

Last 2 crashes reversal came after 250-300$ rises  

I got caught in first of them heavily after buying on the very bottom, and sold too early in 2nd one too, that won't happen this time.

If you mean the Dec crashes, those were a whole different order of magnitude to this one, and right after a parabolic phase.

If we can state that this crash started at $640 and hit $400, that is a $230 crash. We have just seen a $170 recovery up until now with no meaningful corrections standing in its way, all within 20 hours or something....that is a 70% recovery up until now.

By comparison, the Dec 17th crash could be argued to have started at $870 and hit $380, that is a $490 crash. We then seen a recovery until $720, that is again around 70%. However, this played out over the course of a good few days. In contrast, this crash and recovery from start to finish has occurred in about 48 hours.

Do you not perhaps think that there is an argument for the market being in a hyper-volatile whiplash like state, and now that it has bounced from the very bottom, that is must now correct (and probably very sharply)?

Also bear in my mind the 3.5 million USD of market liquidity that the 10K whale tricked trading bots into splashing out at $580. The owners of these bots, are either bag-holding, or took heavy losses at this price point. That has got to count for something going forward..i.e. a mass of traders competing to cancel out heavy losses.

I dunno, I'm no trader I do ok though...

U did on those occasions anyhow....

I won't bother showing you my screenshot of 60 BTC at $391.34 (yeah, I have missed out on around 10K of potential gains due to being $9 too greedy and too stupid to place staggered buy-in tranches)......

...in my defense, I was in my bed from $530 downwards during the drop.

[seleme]

But those two crashes were caused by meaningful and very strong reason. Mtgox going down should never cause bitcoin price to crash, actually quite opposite as numbers of bitcoins are removed from market with their insolvency. But it was still obvious crash would happen as that's how bitcoiners function.

We'll surely see dips here and there. Good luck catching those, that's game I don't want to play. I don't trade TA anyway.. news and market sentiment are enough to make enough successful trades here and there.

[hdbuck]

hmm so i just shorted *again. dont want to be loaded until Mark finally spits it out (heard he actually got some lawyer apointment tmrw). still a long and painful week to go imo (well, depending on your positions i'd guess ^^). and its surely not that pumping whale on stamp that is going to reverse it all in a blink.

[MatTheCat]

But those two crashes were caused by meaningful and very strong reason. Mtgox going down should never cause bitcoin price to crash, actually quite opposite as numbers of bitcoins are removed from market with their insolvency.

We'll surely see dips here and there. Good luck catching those, that's game I don't want to play. I don't trade TA anyway.. news and market sentiment are enough to make enough successful trades here and there.

In my very brief experience of trading Bitcoin or trading anything else for that matter, I find that an over-belief in the impact of news events is a great weakness. With the odd notable exceptions, at best these news events are catalysers of market movement, not directors of the market. The market was heading down this neck of the woods at any rate, Gox fear just helped it get here. The big issue around Gox is not so much it going down, but the mass of coins in the hands of cyber thieves (no doubt Mark Karpeles being amongst them) many of whom are looking to capitalise in a clear declining market.

hmm so i just shorted *again. dont want to be loaded until Mark finally spit it out. still a long and painful week to go imo (well, depending on your positions i'd guess ^^). and its surely not that pumping whale on stamp that is going to reverse it all in a blink.

Can't short, nothing on Bitfinex at the moment and I aint risking running the gauntlet of buying $560 BTC on Stamp when there is every chance that Bitcoin may be at $540 by the time they get there. Not sure I would short right at this point in time either. There is a good chance that $570 is top for now, but absolutely no market indicators to confirm this is indeed the case.

[chessnut]

Bitstamp approaching critical level...... 580..... will there be a monster 5k sell order awaiting still? doubt it. great to be back in coins.

[seleme]

But those two crashes were caused by meaningful and very strong reason. Mtgox going down should never cause bitcoin price to crash, actually quite opposite as numbers of bitcoins are removed from market with their insolvency.

We'll surely see dips here and there. Good luck catching those, that's game I don't want to play. I don't trade TA anyway.. news and market sentiment are enough to make enough successful trades here and there.

In my very brief experience of trading Bitcoin or trading anything else for that matter, I find that an over-belief in the impact of news events is a great weakness. With the odd notable exceptions, at best these news events are catalysers of market movement, not directors of the market. The market was heading down this neck of the woods at any rate, Gox fear just helped it get here. The big issue around Gox is not so much it going down, but the mass of coins in the hands of cyber thieves (no doubt Mark Karpeles being amongst them) many of whom are looking to capitalise in a clear declining market.

hmm so i just shorted *again. dont want to be loaded until Mark finally spit it out. still a long and painful week to go imo (well, depending on your positions i'd guess ^^). and its surely not that pumping whale on stamp that is going to reverse it all in a blink.

Can't short, nothing on Bitfinex at the moment and I aint risking running the gauntlet of buying $560 BTC on Stamp when there is every chance that Bitcoin may be at $540 by the time they get there. Not sure I would short right at this point in time either. There is a good chance that $570 is top for now, but absolutely no market indicators to confirm this is indeed the case.

Sure, news come too late just as many TA indicators. But unlike any of TA stuff, news are sure bet to trade and easiest money if one reacts on time.

[MatTheCat]

Bitstamp approaching critical level...... 580..... will there be a monster 5k sell order awaiting still? doubt it. great to be back in coins.

Do not underestimate the power of the 3.5 million USD liquidity sucker punch, that the 10K whale dealt to the market. Much of that capital would be leverage. Will be a lot of traders sweating to make up loss ground and delighted for first opportunity they have to get their shirts back on their backs and competing like fuck to take it....this will likely entail lots of manipulative actions designed to trick over eager punters into thinking market is going one way, when in fact it is going to go the other way.

If I can get back in here at $540, I will do so, but I will be ready to drop in an instant if the market starts drawing spooky patterns. Will $570 be taken out? Possibly. And then $580 - $590? I seriously doubt it!

[hdbuck]

Bitstamp approaching critical level...... 580..... will there be a monster 5k sell order awaiting still? doubt it. great to be back in coins.

Do not underestimate the power of a 3.5 million USD sucker punch, that the 10K whale dealt to the market. Much of that capital would be leverage. Will be a lot of traders sweating to make up loss ground and delighted for first opportunity they have to get their shirts back on their backs.

If I can get back in here at $540, I will do so, but I will be ready to drop in an instant if the market starts drawing spooky patterns. Will $570 be taken out? Possibly. And then $580 - $590? I seriously doubt it!

yup,
& bulltrap it is imho...