rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[chessnut]

Matt, Im following that chart. doubly significant to me, because breaking that upper trendline would be terminating the wedge that the trendline forms underneath. EW states wedges are terminal movements, it's would signal to me the ultimate reversal. but it seems like it has no energy left.

today I was hoping to break 630, but I guess Ill just have to buy some more cheap coins ..... could be worse =P

[creekbore]

Pardon me if I haven't been paying attention, but what is your take on the market from here?

Maybe you should do some reading...let's see TERA called 450 a 'natural bottom' and 520 unbreakable resistance...oh and he quit trading... again. 

You guys should get a room.

[MatTheCat]

Also, there is far too much relief and euphoria around here........perhaps that this psychology exists cos it isn't really yet the bottom?

This could very well be the case. But personally I am also fooled by the relief and euphoria and find it likely that a bottom has been found.

and do you stand head and shoulders in terms of cold rationality amongst your fellow man?

Who is to say that your belief that bear market has reversed doesn't just ensure that you will become plankton for the market makers to feed on?

At this point in time, I can't possibly say that I am forecasting lower lows or still medium term bearish, but rather just playing devils advocate here. After all, the market bottom of a bear trend is rarely the market bottom, when the majority of people are standing around pointing and shouting;

"Look everyone, that is the bottom in!"
"Hooray, we can all now go long Bitcoin and live happily ever after"

[MatTheCat]

Here's the evidence I have so far that 400 was (probably) bottom:
1. The VOLUME: Bitstamp did 118K BTC of volume in a day. This type of volume hasn't been seen since the bottom in December. Huobi also did a record volume of >300K but Huobi might be irrelevant.
2. The trends support this being possible bottom: including the horizontal support at 380 and the long term logarithmic support somewhere between 300 and 500 (each of us have a different opinion about where this trend is).
3. The order book: The bitstamp order book now looks like a monster of giant continuous bidwalls against a tiny ask. Everything is consistent and there are no more 'cliffs' for the price to fall off of. The amount of fiat on there increased from 8M to 22M (an ATH) overnight.
4. The hammer candle on the daily chart.
5. The recovery right back above the 530 low that took two weeks to break.
6. The amount of overextended short interest that was on bitfinex.
7. The weekly chart pattern consistency with all previous bitcoin rallies (except 2011 bubble)

Point 3 above, is of particular interest. Where do you get access to the amount of USD on an exchange?

Also, last night at $750, the bid/ask walls were a near mirror image of what they are now. You can see the 5000 BTC of buying power that destroyed the huge Ask walls (2 minutes after I cam out my long). Never trust the walls. Wall momentum perhaps, but not wall shape.

[TERA]

Pardon me if I haven't been paying attention, but what is your take on the market from here?

Maybe you should do some reading...let's see TERA called 450 a 'natural bottom' and 520 unbreakable resistance...oh and he quit trading... again. 

You guys should get a room.

450: I thought that was going to be a local bottom during a multistep downtrend before a further drop. I didn't realize this entire drop was going to be all in one leg.

520: I called that 520 was going to be a short term resistance based on 4 hour charts and that it wouldn't proceed past that until 4 hour macd crossed. That area did serve as a level of resistance for an entire 12 hours but ended up prempting the MACD by a few hours. I believe you still had the chance to buy at 535 when it finally crossed.

Quit trading: I said I was going to quit trading AFTER REVERSALS (in bull markets). This not only has a trading purpose behind it but also allows me to keep my coins in cold storage away from the dangers of exchanges which I shouldn't take if I'm going to be in coins most of the time.

[ErisDiscordia]

Also, there is far too much relief and euphoria around here........perhaps that this psychology exists cos it isn't really yet the bottom?

This could very well be the case. But personally I am also fooled by the relief and euphoria and find it likely that a bottom has been found.

and do you stand head and shoulders in terms of cold rationality amongst your fellow man?

Who is to say that your belief that bear market has reversed doesn't just ensure that you will become plankton for the market makers to feed on?

At this point in time, I can't possibly say that I am forecasting lower lows or still medium term bearish, but rather just playing devils advocate here. After all, the market bottom of a bear trend is rarely the market bottom, when the majority of people are standing around pointing and shouting;

"Look everyone, that is the bottom in!"
"Hooray, we can all now go long Bitcoin and live happily ever after"

I won't become plankton for the market makers, because I am not trading, just holding, buying a bit here, spending some there. I have thus the luxury that I can be rather liberal with what I choose to believe

I share your sentiment about the "obviousness" of it all. People standing around and pointing the bottom out to each other. And this big rally. Smells kind of fishy doesn't it? But like in poker, where you can outwit your opponents by thinking exactly one level ahead of them, this could be a bluff by the market in a spot where the opponent (you and I) would think "surely he can't be bluffing in this spot"/"surely the bottom can't be THAT obvious". Well perhaps it can and that is the deception of it. I guess we will find out soon.

[TERA]

Point 3 above, is of particular interest. Where do you get access to the amount of USD on an exchange?

It's not really the amount of USD on the exchange but the amount in open orders.

https://www.bitstamp.net/market/order_book/

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/bitstamp/USD



I wonder if rpetelia will come along and again tell me that orderbooks are irrelevant. Even with this insane orderbook.

[MatTheCat]

I wonder if rpetelia will come along and again tell me that orderbooks are irrelevant. Even with this insane orderbook.

I edited my reply with the following:

"Also, last night at $750, the bid/ask walls were a near mirror image of what they are now. You can see the 5000 BTC of buying power that destroyed the huge Ask walls (2 minutes after I cam out my long). Never trust the walls. Wall momentum perhaps, but not wall shape."

Also, I am of course aware of these links (especially the Bitstamp order book), but I don't see where it tells me about the amount of liquidity that has flowed into the exchange overnight.

If 16M USD has just rocked up at exchange overnight......then that is insanely bullish.

[RicePicker]

The problem with looking at the orderbooks is that after a massive crash there is usually always a massive influx of USD that is shown on the orderbooks. The market went down to $400 because of a lot of panic selling and many of those panic sellers simply want to buy back without any loses so they place bids on the orderbook hoping to catch the next crash.

[MatTheCat]

The problem with looking at the orderbooks is that after a massive crash there is usually always a massive influx of USD that is shown on the orderbooks. The market went down to $400 because of a lot of panic selling and many of those panic sellers simply want to buy back without any loses so they place bids on the orderbook hoping to catch the next crash.

urghhhh.....that would be an entirely different matter from 16 USD of fresh liquidity landing in Bitstamp's account!

[mmitech]

I am following Risto, Mat and TERA predictions, and I cant seem to ignore these opinions, all of them have some validity and make some sense, but IMHO the market needs few days to decide.... it is really early to judge now...

each time interval is showing a different direction, now ignore 1h,2h,4h time intervals as they are for daily trading (quick in and out):

- judging from the 1d chart, the trend will reverse and the market will turn bullish soon. and the indicators are negative there
- judging from the 3d chart, there is still some room for going down, but the indicators are bearly negative (only 12 period is negative)
- judging from the 1w chart, we are just entering a bear market but indicators are really positive (both)


So if I you are planing on daily trading and making quick 2-5% profits (BTC term), the 4h chart is so great and predictions seems to be easier, but deciding which direction we are heading mid-term is really hard, this needs time and volume, we need the volume to stay at what it is at now or at least close to that, and after few days it will be clearer... although the opportunities for making small profits here and there can sum up and make some overall profit, but the risk is greater, in other words yes the big shot of 400 was a great opportunity that I cant seem to see repeating at the time being(except of there will be huge bad bad news).

I would like you to add some reviews on this opinion, what do you think and why ?

[RicePicker]

The problem with looking at the orderbooks is that after a massive crash there is usually always a massive influx of USD that is shown on the orderbooks. The market went down to $400 because of a lot of panic selling and many of those panic sellers simply want to buy back without any loses so they place bids on the orderbook hoping to catch the next crash.

urghhhh.....that would be an entirely different matter from 16 USD of fresh liquidity landing in Bitstamp's account!

Mtgox's orderbook use to look like BSP orderbook right now all the time. Whoever sold those 10k coins at 579.3 has close to 6 million dollars sitting in his account. BFX orderbook IDK if they are still connected to BSP, but the amount of shorts are at a record high right now, that more money that BFX has to keep on BSP.  

[checkers6676]

Well, I live in CST timezone and also am a graduate student...I've pulled probably 8 all-nighters over the past 2 weeks watching bitcoin, attempting to average down and ride waves, etc. Seems like the spikes down always come between 3 and 4 am my time, its to the point where i can very comfortably pull an all-nighter without coffee or energy drinks.

Now I'm completely bought in for an average of $475/coin. I'm putting my coins in a cold wallet and will report back in April (seems like a month a lot of speculators enjoy referencing for some reason?)

Looking forward to returning to a normal sleep schedule, and quite proud of my work! Gonna be paying off all my student loans with these ones


edit: and thank you rpietila for all the advice you dispense in this thread. it seems like these forums are the equivalent of the troll box, and your voice is one of a spare few that speaks reason and legitimately tries to help people based on your views. Your advice on the time to buy being "when people are screaming that the system is broken and will fail" was the deciding factor on me pulling the trigger and putting about 40% of my remaining fiat in @ $405/coin the other night and effectively averaging down some hasty purchases I had made in the 650-700 range. enjoy your mansion, maybe i'll drop by some day and bring you some gifts from New Orleans

[TERA]

Well, I live in CST timezone and also am a graduate student...I've pulled probably 8 all-nighters over the past 2 weeks watching bitcoin, attempting to average down and ride waves, etc. Seems like the spikes down always come between 3 and 4 am my time, its to the point where i can very comfortably pull an all-nighter without coffee or energy drinks.

Now I'm completely bought in for an average of $475/coin. I'm putting my coins in a cold wallet and will report back in April (seems like a month a lot of speculators enjoy referencing for some reason?)

Looking forward to returning to a normal sleep schedule, and quite proud of my work! Gonna be paying off all my student loans with these ones

This is another reason why I'm always "quitting trading". - All the stress and disturbance of my sleep and life in general. I am basically noctural, and everyone I know HATES it. My head is so fried I cannot even do quick daytrading anymore like I used to. I cannot wait till I am in cold storage.

Back when I first started in Bitcoin and I made my first 500% profit one week, it wasn't from TA and following charts. It was from doing ninja warrior cowboy daytrading during crashes with the orderbooks, catching every high and every low on every little wave. It was FUN and REWARDING. I'd spend a couple hours, make my 200%, and then when the big movement was over I'd turn the trading stuff off and go away and live. I'd look at a slow chart that wasn't volatile and think "wtf am I supposed to do here. use ESP? No way. I'm outta here". Nowadays I do all this 'charting' and 'technical analysis' and stress out over long term trends that are nearly impossible to predict and there's always some black swan event to throw everything off from predictions. I am following news and staring at charts and screens and alerts nearly 24/7. The charts are in my DREAMS. It has ruined my life. When I finally get into cold storage, I am taking a big break.

[checkers6676]

Well, I live in CST timezone and also am a graduate student...I've pulled probably 8 all-nighters over the past 2 weeks watching bitcoin, attempting to average down and ride waves, etc. Seems like the spikes down always come between 3 and 4 am my time, its to the point where i can very comfortably pull an all-nighter without coffee or energy drinks.

Now I'm completely bought in for an average of $475/coin. I'm putting my coins in a cold wallet and will report back in April (seems like a month a lot of speculators enjoy referencing for some reason?)

Looking forward to returning to a normal sleep schedule, and quite proud of my work! Gonna be paying off all my student loans with these ones

This is another reason why I'm always "quitting trading". - All the stress and disturbance of my sleep and life in general. I am basically noctural, and everyone I know HATES it. My head is so fried I cannot even do quick daytrading anymore like I used to. I cannot wait till I am in cold storage.

Back when I first started in Bitcoin and I made my first 500% profit one week, it wasn't from TA and following charts. It was from doing ninja warrior cowboy daytrading during crashes with the orderbooks, catching every high and every low on every little wave. It was FUN and REWARDING. I'd spend a couple hours, make my 200%, and then when the big movement was over I'd turn the trading stuff off and go away and live.  Nowadays I do all this 'charting' and 'technical analysis' and stress out over long term trends that are nearly impossible to predict and there's always some black swan event to throw everything off from predictions. I am following news and staring at charts and screens and alerts nearly 24/7. I dream about charts now and The charts are in my DREAMS. It has ruined my life. When I finally get into cold storage, I am taking a big break.

i played the daytrading game during the april 2013 bubble. put in a measly $2k, convinced my parents to put in $2k, and proceeded to daytrade like a madman and turned that $4k into $20k. it was the damnest thing: i woke up the morning of the crash, looked at the price which was trying to eat through $260 and thought to myself, "self, it went exponential compared to yesterday, i should sell and buy the dip." but it was 6 am and i'd just woken up. went downstairs and ate a bowl of cereal. came back upstairs and the price was $140 and gox was completely frozen. so sad...i promised myself i'd just buy and go long from then on, and i made a hell of a lot more holding my coins for half a year and selling at 900 than i ever did day trading now time to do it all again!

[seleme]

I wouldn't want to be on party with day trading TAers. Boy, you're some boring group, worse than philosophers  

You guys are making things too complicated.

[TERA]

i played the daytrading game during the april 2013 bubble. put in a measly $2k, convinced my parents to put in $2k, and proceeded to daytrade like a madman and turned that $4k into $20k. it was the damnest thing: i woke up the morning of the crash, looked at the price which was trying to eat through $260 and thought to myself, "self, it went exponential compared to yesterday, i should sell and buy the dip." but it was 6 am and i'd just woken up. went downstairs and ate a bowl of cereal. came back upstairs and the price was $140 and gox was completely frozen. so sad...i promised myself i'd just buy and go long from then on, and i made a hell of a lot more holding my coins for half a year and selling at 900 than i ever did day trading now time to do it all again!

I've discovered a 'best of both worlds' strategy you can use during bull markets. You keep some coins on bitfinex - keep them as coins at all times (not usd), in your margin trading wallet. Then whenever there is a sharp movement downwards, you take an additional 2-1 margin trading position briefly during the volatility to make profits. Then convert your profits to bitcoins and add them to your stash. This way you have the ability to take advantage of volatility and downswings while still being able to keep all of your funds long in coins - it makes you much more able to commit to being long. I used this strategy during the october/november rally and used it to make a 50x gain rather than the 8x gain that everyone else was making. Of course this strategy also requires that you trust Bitfinex with those coins, and that you're not keeping them in cold storage, so it's not really "the best of both worlds".

[MatTheCat]

This is another reason why I'm always "quitting trading". - All the stress and disturbance of my sleep and life in general. I am basically noctural, and everyone I know HATES it. My head is so fried I cannot even do quick daytrading anymore like I used to. I cannot wait till I am in cold storage.

Back when I first started in Bitcoin and I made my first 500% profit one week, it wasn't from TA and following charts. It was from doing ninja warrior cowboy daytrading during crashes with the orderbooks, catching every high and every low on every little wave. It was FUN and REWARDING. I'd spend a couple hours, make my 200%, and then when the big movement was over I'd turn the trading stuff off and go away and live. I'd look at a slow chart that wasn't volatile and think "wtf am I supposed to do here. use ESP? No way. I'm outta here". Nowadays I do all this 'charting' and 'technical analysis' and stress out over long term trends that are nearly impossible to predict and there's always some black swan event to throw everything off from predictions. I am following news and staring at charts and screens and alerts nearly 24/7. The charts are in my DREAMS. It has ruined my life. When I finally get into cold storage, I am taking a big break.

You know why it makes you nocturnal in the US, and me nocturnal in the UK?

Because all the main market making n breaking action is coming from those of a Far East time zone persuasion.

What does that tell ya?

[TERA]

This is another reason why I'm always "quitting trading". - All the stress and disturbance of my sleep and life in general. I am basically noctural, and everyone I know HATES it. My head is so fried I cannot even do quick daytrading anymore like I used to. I cannot wait till I am in cold storage.

Back when I first started in Bitcoin and I made my first 500% profit one week, it wasn't from TA and following charts. It was from doing ninja warrior cowboy daytrading during crashes with the orderbooks, catching every high and every low on every little wave. It was FUN and REWARDING. I'd spend a couple hours, make my 200%, and then when the big movement was over I'd turn the trading stuff off and go away and live. I'd look at a slow chart that wasn't volatile and think "wtf am I supposed to do here. use ESP? No way. I'm outta here". Nowadays I do all this 'charting' and 'technical analysis' and stress out over long term trends that are nearly impossible to predict and there's always some black swan event to throw everything off from predictions. I am following news and staring at charts and screens and alerts nearly 24/7. The charts are in my DREAMS. It has ruined my life. When I finally get into cold storage, I am taking a big break.

You know why it makes you nocturnal in the US, and me nocturnal in the UK?

Because all the main market making n breaking action is coming from those of a Far East time zone persuasion.

What does that tell ya?

That's a good point. Here we are looking at Bitstamp's order book/chart and being grateful for how strong it is now that it has taken over from gox.  But meanwhile all the action is still happening on China's watch, and Chinese exchanges are doing 5x more volume (though some of that may be fake). This makes me a little concerned. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

[doctor877]

i played the daytrading game during the april 2013 bubble. put in a measly $2k, convinced my parents to put in $2k, and proceeded to daytrade like a madman and turned that $4k into $20k. it was the damnest thing: i woke up the morning of the crash, looked at the price which was trying to eat through $260 and thought to myself, "self, it went exponential compared to yesterday, i should sell and buy the dip." but it was 6 am and i'd just woken up. went downstairs and ate a bowl of cereal. came back upstairs and the price was $140 and gox was completely frozen. so sad...i promised myself i'd just buy and go long from then on, and i made a hell of a lot more holding my coins for half a year and selling at 900 than i ever did day trading now time to do it all again!

I've discovered a 'best of both worlds' strategy you can use during bull markets. You keep some coins on bitfinex - keep them as coins at all times (not usd), in your margin trading wallet. Then whenever there is a sharp movement downwards, you take an additional 2-1 margin trading position briefly during the volatility to make profits. Then convert your profits to bitcoins and add them to your stash. This way you have the ability to take advantage of volatility and downswings while still being able to keep all of your funds long in coins - it makes you much more able to commit to being long. I used this strategy during the october/november rally and used it to make a 50x gain rather than the 8x gain that everyone else was making. Of course this strategy also requires that you trust Bitfinex with those coins, and that you're not keeping them in cold storage, so it's not really "the best of both worlds".

Could you explain how that 2-1 margin trade actually works?