rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[TERA]

i played the daytrading game during the april 2013 bubble. put in a measly $2k, convinced my parents to put in $2k, and proceeded to daytrade like a madman and turned that $4k into $20k. it was the damnest thing: i woke up the morning of the crash, looked at the price which was trying to eat through $260 and thought to myself, "self, it went exponential compared to yesterday, i should sell and buy the dip." but it was 6 am and i'd just woken up. went downstairs and ate a bowl of cereal. came back upstairs and the price was $140 and gox was completely frozen. so sad...i promised myself i'd just buy and go long from then on, and i made a hell of a lot more holding my coins for half a year and selling at 900 than i ever did day trading now time to do it all again!

I've discovered a 'best of both worlds' strategy you can use during bull markets. You keep some coins on bitfinex - keep them as coins at all times (not usd), in your margin trading wallet. Then whenever there is a sharp movement downwards, you take an additional 2-1 margin trading position briefly during the volatility to make profits. Then convert your profits to bitcoins and add them to your stash. This way you have the ability to take advantage of volatility and downswings while still being able to keep all of your funds long in coins - it makes you much more able to commit to being long. I used this strategy during the october/november rally and used it to make a 50x gain rather than the 8x gain that everyone else was making. Of course this strategy also requires that you trust Bitfinex with those coins, and that you're not keeping them in cold storage, so it's not really "the best of both worlds".

Could you explain how that 2-1 margin trade actually works?

You hold a balance bitcoins which are used as collateral to borrow usd to buy additional bitcoins. The additional bitcoins isn't like holding actual bitcoins - Rather you are holding a "position" which shows in a table with a profit/loss amount. The borrowed usd is contantly charging you interest so you want to close the position as soon as possible (on top of mitigating leverage risk).

[MatTheCat]

That's a good point. Here we are looking at Bitstamp's order book/chart and being grateful for how strong it is now that it has taken over from gox.  But meanwhile all the action is still happening on China's watch, and Chinese exchanges are doing 5x more volume (though some of that may be fake). This makes me a little concerned. Anyone else have thoughts on this?

Probably Huobi volume is faked in large amounts.

But who is to say that well connected wealthy Chinese people couldn't have accounts on Bitstamp, BTC-e, etc? I could have an account on BTC China if I wanted.

You mentioned before about having a distaste for trading on ESP, I actually don't. Very often my best Bitcoin decisions come from subtle but persistent underlying feelings and intuitions and especially from dreams. In this sense, it is good to be nocturnal as when you are taking a light nap during the day is when you are most likely to remember and/or be aware of your dreams or subconscious ramblings. I have only just started learning about the very most basic principles of TA, but well before then, I was entering Bitcoin profitably and leaving the market profitably based on pure intuition. Had I been able to combine that with a bit of market savvy and an understanding of TA, I would have make a fkn killing.

I posted on this forum some time ago, that I dreamt of a big bunch of Chinese Cowboys rounding up a big bunch of cattle n bulls into a barn and hacking them to bits with power saws and the like. They then started betting against each other with lumps of prime steak ripped from the slaughtered cattle. I became aware of the tricks that the main cowboy would play and knew to lay my meagre strips of bacon low to avoid it getting roasted. I succeeded in 'saving my bacon' but laid it out so low that I never won any steak. I posted this on here when BItcoin was still up higher $700s or even $800 range. I don't expect it to inform anyone elses market outlook but it certainly informed mine and the symbology of it seems to have come good, right down to me laying my bacon too low and not winning any steak......and perhaps even the fact that the cowboys were Chinese.

I 'predicted' a $380 bottom, but determined not to lay my bacon out too low, I placed 60 BTC of buy-ins all at $391.34. No staggered tranches eating into my profits! You can imagine my disappointment at missing out on a possible $15K of pure profit by $9. But to be fair, this isn't the first time I have done this since the time when I caught the falling knife too high on the Dec 17th crash ($540) and then losing my nerve and taking a loss on the bounce.



 

[mmitech]

I am reviewing my thoughts, there are 2 voices in my head now, the first is telling me that there will be small drops but we will go up but the second and strongest one is telling me it is not over and that we will drop further and we will drop even less than 400.

I am trying to convince my self and gather my thoughts but the gox situation is not letting it go, I cant let it go and I am starting to think that we will sink even further... any thoughts ?

[chriswilmer]

Really? Bitcoin speculation has now become an exercise in dream interpretation? Where's Otoh and his astrological Bitcoin charts?

Please go on... don't interpret my comment as discouragement!

[MatTheCat]

Really? Bitcoin speculation has now become an exercise in dream interpretation? Where's Otoh and his astrological Bitcoin charts?

Please go on... don't interpret my comment as discouragement!

My Bitcoin dreams usually do provide me with valuable insight into what is going on or what is around the corner. This is why I had the courage to post that particular one.

The meaning I took from it, is that there are forces at work (possibly Chinese cyber-bandits, possibly not) who are at work to bring Bitcoin down. Thus, at a time when everyone was claiming that the bottom was in ($531 bottom and we were up in high $600s when I posted the dream), the message from my subconscious mind left me in no doubts at all that there was yet more shit to come.

U can't really knock it when it ended up working out that way:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=465422.0

[mmitech]

Really? Bitcoin speculation has now become an exercise in dream interpretation? Where's Otoh and his astrological Bitcoin charts?

Please go on... don't interpret my comment as discouragement!

I know, the support seems so strong, but for the sake of this argument, forget a bit about the TA now, the Gox situation doesn't seem to make any sense, all Bitcoin businesses came out from day to night to tell us that mtgox is insolvent and we should forget about it and all funds are lost, just like that ? where were they before ? and what did they knew ? why aren't they sharing this with the public, and who were the holders of the ten thousands of coins dropped before we knew anything ?

and what about Roger when he advocated them 7 months ago ? he said that he looked to documents and statements from banks and it is really not up to gox and they were honest, today he came out to say sorry and that he was just doing them a favor!! and we should forget about gox and all funds just like that ?!! do you want me to believe this ?


this doesn't sum up, there is something and we need to know what it is, each time there is a speculation about gox the price is going to drop, until the situation is not all over and clear, we cant move on... well at least I cant...

[dedcoin]

They put all the shit out already, what can be worst than sayin "there are no coins"?
I suspect the upcoming news from Gox to be very bullish...
But the fast recovery is beyond my understanding. 7% of btc is in the nature. Or worse, in the hand of few malicious people.

[cosmofly]

I am reviewing my thoughts, there are 2 voices in my head now, the first is telling me that there will be small drops but we will go up but the second and strongest one is telling me it is not over and that we will drop further and we will drop even less than 400.

I am trying to convince my self and gather my thoughts but the gox situation is not letting it go, I cant let it go and I am starting to think that we will sink even further... any thoughts ?

We will drop to less than $400 by or before March 16.

Litecoin is about to take a big hit too, it will be a surprise to everyone involved, single digits.

I'm basing this in extensive research on Chinese markets and bot analysis. I hope to return to this thread and confirm my expectations.

[mmitech]

From Lets talk bitcoin tweeted by Shrem https://twitter.com/CharlieShrem/status/438794961065345024



http://letstalkbitcoin.com/somethings-not-right-at-gox/#.Uw5lrfmwJBl

Something’s Not Right at ‘Gox
For those living under a rock, a document surfaced which I can confirm is authentic regarding the insolvency of MtGox titled “MtGox Situation Crisis Strategy”

it is too long go to the site and read it
Napoleon

[mmitech]

so the theory is and I can say 90% that this is what happened, Mark lost the private key, but he thinks that he can recover it, he reached for help, he told the Big guys about the problem, they were shocked and didn't want to help him and went out in 24 hour to tell us that Mtgox is insolvent instead of helping him recover customer funds, it was interesting how they just made a statement in 24 hours without any explanation to just tell everyone forgot your funds...

[bitdig]

You should be selling your signals , I would be the first to buy!

i played the daytrading game during the april 2013 bubble. put in a measly $2k, convinced my parents to put in $2k, and proceeded to daytrade like a madman and turned that $4k into $20k. it was the damnest thing: i woke up the morning of the crash, looked at the price which was trying to eat through $260 and thought to myself, "self, it went exponential compared to yesterday, i should sell and buy the dip." but it was 6 am and i'd just woken up. went downstairs and ate a bowl of cereal. came back upstairs and the price was $140 and gox was completely frozen. so sad...i promised myself i'd just buy and go long from then on, and i made a hell of a lot more holding my coins for half a year and selling at 900 than i ever did day trading now time to do it all again!

I've discovered a 'best of both worlds' strategy you can use during bull markets. You keep some coins on bitfinex - keep them as coins at all times (not usd), in your margin trading wallet. Then whenever there is a sharp movement downwards, you take an additional 2-1 margin trading position briefly during the volatility to make profits. Then convert your profits to bitcoins and add them to your stash. This way you have the ability to take advantage of volatility and downswings while still being able to keep all of your funds long in coins - it makes you much more able to commit to being long. I used this strategy during the october/november rally and used it to make a 50x gain rather than the 8x gain that everyone else was making. Of course this strategy also requires that you trust Bitfinex with those coins, and that you're not keeping them in cold storage, so it's not really "the best of both worlds".

[rpietila]

so the theory is and I can say 90% that this is what happened, Mark lost the private key, but he thinks that he can recover it, he reached for help, he told the Big guys about the problem, they were shocked and didn't want to help him and went out in 24 hour to tell us that Mtgox is insolvent instead of helping him recover customer funds, it was interesting how they just made a statement in 24 hours without any explanation to just tell everyone forgot your funds...

It would be just legendary to have those coins sitting forever in known addresses 

[mmitech]

so the theory is and I can say 90% that this is what happened, Mark lost the private key, but he thinks that he can recover it, he reached for help, he told the Big guys about the problem, they were shocked and didn't want to help him and went out in 24 hour to tell us that Mtgox is insolvent instead of helping him recover customer funds, it was interesting how they just made a statement in 24 hours without any explanation to just tell everyone forgot your funds...

It would be just legendary to have those coins sitting forever in known addresses 

would give a real price boost to any holder right now, but I feel for the people who lost funds, I really hope that he can recover the key if this is the case, we don't need this bad advertisement, especially now ...

[mmitech]

in other side note, if some how Mark the MagicalTux does some magic and recover the key (assuming this is the case) how do you think this will effect the price:

1- confidence is recovered and the media start covering the positive turn of the whole situation and people start buying crazy, and the next boom ?
2- people who have accepted the fact that they lost their coins and magically got them back and dump them right away on exchanges and price goes down ?

[bitdig]

My vote, much down for a short time. If that was me, I would sell at least 30%...

in other side note, if some how Mark the MagicalTux does some magic and recover the key (assuming this is the case) how do you think this will effect the price:

1- confidence is recovered and the media start covering the positive turn of the whole situation and people start buying crazy, and the next boom ?
2- people who have accepted the fact that they lost their coins and magically got them back and dump them right away on exchanges and price goes down ?

[MatTheCat]

We will drop to less than $400 by or before March 16.

Litecoin is about to take a big hit too, it will be a surprise to everyone involved, single digits.

I'm basing this in extensive research on Chinese markets and bot analysis. I hope to return to this thread and confirm my expectations.

Ya know what, I believe you.

I believe that a bunch of Chinese cyber cowboys are ripping the arse out of Bitcoin for all that they can get out of it. Practically all the main action is always happening during these fkrs waking hours despite the fact it is meant to be banned over their and it is rumoured that all the Huobi volume is faked.

However, I don't believe that we will see a lower low anytime soon. I believe that we will see the confirmatory test of the bottom that everyone is waiting on, and then Bitcoin will be allowed to grow for a bit, taking out a few significant supports in the process and bringing confidence rushing back into market, then back to business followed ultimately by lower lows and whole new depths of despair.

Bitcoin is getting fucked with. Of that I am certain, and I find it hard to imagine that the game is now up quite so easily, with everyone around here patting themselves on the back with glee and preparing for the run up to new all-time highs.

[jayspin]

so the theory is and I can say 90% that this is what happened, Mark lost the private key, but he thinks that he can recover it, he reached for help, he told the Big guys about the problem, they were shocked and didn't want to help him and went out in 24 hour to tell us that Mtgox is insolvent instead of helping him recover customer funds, it was interesting how they just made a statement in 24 hours without any explanation to just tell everyone forgot your funds...

How do you figure 90%? That would be a pretty silly thing to happen to someone, especially someone working with btc all day... even to Mark.

[seleme]

so the theory is and I can say 90% that this is what happened, Mark lost the private key, but he thinks that he can recover it, he reached for help, he told the Big guys about the problem, they were shocked and didn't want to help him and went out in 24 hour to tell us that Mtgox is insolvent instead of helping him recover customer funds, it was interesting how they just made a statement in 24 hours without any explanation to just tell everyone forgot your funds...

It would be just legendary to have those coins sitting forever in known addresses  

would give a real price boost to any holder right now, but I feel for the people who lost funds, I really hope that he can recover the key if this is the case, we don't need this bad advertisement, especially now ...

I lost 11 BTC there but if it would (and it would) give the boost to my other 500+ let them die in agony  

[hdbuck]

Guys,

Mark just stole the bitcoins. No one is ever going to recover them. Thats just the way it is when doing business in Bitcoinland. At some point the temptation is just too high. It already happened with many other exchanges and services, claiming they've been hacked or which just vanished. Mark saw the opportunity to retire from this exhaustive business when that malleability issue reappeared few months ago. So he covered his steal - stop thinking that building such a platform and taking it to those heights is possible from someone stupid/incompetent. Now he is out of anyone's reach on that Japan Island, meeting lawyers to negotiate 100% immunity and with a government that now stops protesting movements against him. Plus he might sell his business too (and without the stolen coins!).. The guy's a smart greedy con and is just going to live happily ever after.

Frankly who wouldnt do the same if in such position? We're talking about 100s millions that arent covered by any laws around the world. Bitcoin is totally virtual in that sens. So far, not a single bitcoin thieve got condemned.

I think its time for you to move on and be more careful whist trading with a third party.
After all, isnt that what Bitcoin's all about?!
Until then it surely wont be the last service to go down.

edit: sorry for your loss.. if any

[Le Happy Merchant]

there are 2 voices in my head now

I don't want to alarm you, but I had that too. They kept telling me 'The numbers are counting to zero' Then I snapped. Then I un-snapped three minutes later and proved that zero is fundamentally an irrational number, but they placed it into the rational number-line, and therefore it does not exist.

I'm currently 21 pages into a thesis about it.

Trust me, writing a thesis is a pain in the ass, and all the mathematicians I have explained it to have told me I would probably need to write more than one paper.

If you don't want to be stuck writing for the rest of your life, get rid of the voices.