rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Yololintian]

in other side note, if some how Mark the MagicalTux does some magic and recover the key (assuming this is the case) how do you think this will effect the price:

1- confidence is recovered and the media start covering the positive turn of the whole situation and people start buying crazy, and the next boom ?
2- people who have accepted the fact that they lost their coins and magically got them back and dump them right away on exchanges and price goes down ?

I think the bitcoin builder buyers would be selling a lot of their coins for insane profit in that case; I don't think the other people who were just holding coins in mtgox would sell much. I'm not sure how smart most of them are holding coins in gox but I think they would move them off the exchange quickly at least.

[1715600844]

1715600844

[kromer]

Frankly who wouldnt do the same if in such position? We're talking about 100s millions that arent covered by any laws around the world. Bitcoin is totally virtual in that sens. So far, not a single bitcoin thieve got condemned.

Me. I do not steal from people.

[creekbore]

there are 2 voices in my head now

I don't want to alarm you, but I had that too. They kept telling me 'The numbers are counting to zero' Then I snapped. Then I un-snapped three minutes later and proved that zero is fundamentally an irrational number, but they placed it into the rational number-line, and therefore it does not exist.

I'm currently 21 pages into a thesis about it.

Trust me, writing a thesis is a pain in the ass, and all the mathematicians I have explained it to have told me I would probably need to write more than one paper.

If you don't want to be stuck writing for the rest of your life, get rid of the voices.

My wife has just finished her thesis (yesterday) and it is a long, painful process....best of luck.

[hdbuck]

Frankly who wouldnt do the same if in such position? We're talking about 100s millions that arent covered by any laws around the world. Bitcoin is totally virtual in that sens. So far, not a single bitcoin thieve got condemned.

Me. I do not steal from people.

Its a rhetorical question in that sens that not everyone is honest anyway. I think he struggled for 3 years building that company against govs, FBI, banks, and is now having an anticipated retirement. And he got $100s milllions of reasons to do so. Just saying its time to face reality.

edit: http://psychcentral.com/lib/the-5-stages-of-loss-and-grief/000617

[kromer]

in other side note, if some how Mark the MagicalTux does some magic and recover the key (assuming this is the case) how do you think this will effect the price:

1- confidence is recovered and the media start covering the positive turn of the whole situation and people start buying crazy, and the next boom ?
2- people who have accepted the fact that they lost their coins and magically got them back and dump them right away on exchanges and price goes down ?

3- people who have accepted the fact that they lost their coins and magically got them back and store them safely like they should have done before

[kromer]

Frankly who wouldnt do the same if in such position? We're talking about 100s millions that arent covered by any laws around the world. Bitcoin is totally virtual in that sens. So far, not a single bitcoin thieve got condemned.

Me. I do not steal from people.

Its a rhetorical question in that sens that not everyone is honest anyway. I think he struggled for 3 years building that company against govs, FBI, banks, and is now having an anticipated retirement. And he got $100s milllions of reason to do so. Just saying its time to face reality.

edit: http://psychcentral.com/lib/the-5-stages-of-loss-and-grief/000617

But he's already made a ton of money, enough to retire. Stealing more just means he will have to look over his shoulder the rest of his life.

[hdbuck]

Frankly who wouldnt do the same if in such position? We're talking about 100s millions that arent covered by any laws around the world. Bitcoin is totally virtual in that sens. So far, not a single bitcoin thieve got condemned.

Me. I do not steal from people.

Its a rhetorical question in that sens that not everyone is honest anyway. I think he struggled for 3 years building that company against govs, FBI, banks, and is now having an anticipated retirement. And he got $100s milllions of reason to do so. Just saying its time to face reality.

edit: http://psychcentral.com/lib/the-5-stages-of-loss-and-grief/000617

But he's already made a ton of money, enough to retire. Stealing more just means he will have to look over his shoulder the rest of his life.

1/ never enough
2/ easy peasy in Japan

edit: http://www.bingham.com/Publications/Files/2012/02/A-Practical-Guide-to-Japanese-Insolvency-Procedures

[creekbore]

You know why it makes you nocturnal in the US, and me nocturnal in the UK?

Because all the main market making n breaking action is coming from those of a Far East time zone persuasion.

What does that tell ya?

It tells me the two of you aren't as smart as you keep telling each other you are.

I'm in the 'eastern' time zone and apart from the Gox closure crash the other day volume is always very slow on Stamp during the 'day'....it picks up around 7pm local when Europe is getting up and hots up later as the US responds.  Major upswings/downswings tend to have happened between 6am and 9 am local, corresponding with the West Coast being in full swing.  Apart from between October to December last year, its pretty much always been like that since last March at least.

The only advantage one gets being in the East of the planet is you see the news stories break and develop before they hit the global daily cycle.  But of course, as everyone here keeps telling me, news and sentiment have no impact on BTC.

[MatTheCat]

It tells me the two of you aren't as smart as you keep telling each other you are.

I'm in the 'eastern' time zone and apart from the Gox closure crash the other day volume is always very slow on Stamp during the 'day'....it picks up around 7pm local when Europe is getting up and hots up later as the US responds.  Major upswings/downswings tend to have happened between 6am and 9 am local, corresponding with the West Coast being in full swing.  Apart from between October to December last year, its pretty much always been like that since last March at least.

The only advantage one gets being in the East of the planet is you see the news stories break and develop before they hit the global daily cycle.  But of course, as everyone here keeps telling me, news and sentiment have no impact on BTC.

Give me a break...Go and look at the 30 minute Huobi chart.

There you will see the times when China sleeps as the volume hits the floor. You will also see that during these 'China sleeps times' Bitcoin is most stagnant/stable. Like right fkn now for example, Bitcoin aint doing shit except have some whale move 1000BTC chips around either side of the Walls to achieve god knows what goals. Yesterday as well. As China slept, Bitcoin done shit (low $500, High $520). And even the day before that, and the day before that. All the big moves come when these guys are active. Don't tell me they don't cos I am looking at the fkn charts that tell me that this is the case, as I type.......

......and yes, the chart action on Huobi corresponds 100% with the chart action on Bitstamp. It would do, of course as most trading is done by bots running algorithms and all these bots are hooked up to price action on other major exchanges. In this sense, Huobi's ultra high and probably largely faked volume could be used as a means of manipulating USD exchange trading and actually, I am sure it is used for exactly this purpose. There are hundreds of millions to be leeched out the system here for a well organised bunch of cyber-cowboys.

[chessnut]

...... the chart is flat at significant resistance, it has not passed 630, so I have to assume top and further downtrend for tonight. new lows, why not? lets hope.

[Le Happy Merchant]

My wife has just finished her thesis (yesterday) and it is a long, painful process....best of luck.

Thank you.

[merkin51]

...... the chart is flat at significant resistance, it has not passed 630, so I have to assume top and further downtrend for tonight. new lows, why not? lets hope.

If you bought back in at $450, would you take the profit and cash out now?

[chessnut]

...... the chart is flat at significant resistance, it has not passed 630, so I have to assume top and further downtrend for tonight. new lows, why not? lets hope.

If you bought back in at $450, would you take the profit and cash out now?

are you asking me specifically? I bought at 500 and sold at 585. I sold because the trend has not changed.

...... $150 is solid return, and no doubt some old school traders that know to take profit will.

If it passes 630.... then I change my mind.

[merkin51]

...... the chart is flat at significant resistance, it has not passed 630, so I have to assume top and further downtrend for tonight. new lows, why not? lets hope.

If you bought back in at $450, would you take the profit and cash out now?

are you asking me specifically? I bought at 500 and sold at 585. I sold because the trend has not changed.

...... $150 is solid return, and no doubt some old school traders that know to take profit will.

If it passes 630.... then I change my mind.

Yes sorry, my post was a bit blunt I bought back in at $450 but wasn't convinced we had hit the bottom, now I really think we haven't.... time to sell up again I guess.

[chessnut]

Yes sorry, my post was a bit blunt I bought back in at $450 but wasn't convinced we had hit the bottom, now I really think we haven't.... time to sell up again I guess.

but also, gone are the days where sleeping in fiat is so comfy.... I couldnt forgive myself if I missed the bottom. 430 is a fair bottom, it may put up a fight.

[TERA]

You know why it makes you nocturnal in the US, and me nocturnal in the UK?

Because all the main market making n breaking action is coming from those of a Far East time zone persuasion.

What does that tell ya?

It tells me the two of you aren't as smart as you keep telling each other you are.

I'm in the 'eastern' time zone and apart from the Gox closure crash the other day volume is always very slow on Stamp during the 'day'....it picks up around 7pm local when Europe is getting up and hots up later as the US responds.  Major upswings/downswings tend to have happened between 6am and 9 am local, corresponding with the West Coast being in full swing.  Apart from between October to December last year, its pretty much always been like that since last March at least.

The only advantage one gets being in the East of the planet is you see the news stories break and develop before they hit the global daily cycle.  But of course, as everyone here keeps telling me, news and sentiment have no impact on BTC.

6am is not the west coast being in 'full swing'. Most people are not even awake yet at 6am, and most people start work at 9am.

[molecular]

so the theory is and I can say 90% that this is what happened, Mark lost the private key, but he thinks that he can recover it, he reached for help, he told the Big guys about the problem, they were shocked and didn't want to help him and went out in 24 hour to tell us that Mtgox is insolvent instead of helping him recover customer funds, it was interesting how they just made a statement in 24 hours without any explanation to just tell everyone forgot your funds...

hehe. Hadn't thought of that. And malleability issue was just a front for hiding the loss of the privkey?

It's a possibility and that would indeed be "legendary", as Risto put it.

What makes you 90% sure, though? I don't give this more than 20% chance in my mind.

[rpietila]

I am going to my castle party and will be offline for a few days.

I've done some market analysis and decided that 575 is a fair price for bitcoin as of now. It is now -0.114 below the trendline. During the slump last summer, starting from the capitulation low and ending the day when daily average ATH was broken (122 days by the way), we were on average -0.251 below the trend. If we stay at this price until April 13, 2014, we will reach -0.251. This is regard as realistic. There is no need to go down, the trendline is going up and takes care that we will sink further below trendline as is predicted by the model.

I see the possibility for a further low below 400 as slim at the moment. If further flashcrashes occur, my target for the low point is 450-500.

The capitulation happened already. If you did not feel it, the reason is that here in the oldtimer threads in Bitcointalk people knew what was coming and were not afraid. Outside, people and media and newbies were, and still are, asking if Bitcoin is dead. There was blood on the streets. Don't expect that it will turn worse. It cannot. It can only go up from here.

There is no need to be hasty with purchases. Bitcoin is not going down, but neither is it going up. The trendline logistics prevent it from rising, and I would see 700 as a shorting price if I was in the intention to gamble now. In reality I just transferred the overmajority of my trading capital to cold wallets. If you want to buy now, bidding 500-550 is probably enough.

It is frivolous to think that history could exactly predict future, but because Bitcoin behaves self-similarly like a fractal, and because my past predictions based on this method have been quite amazingly correct, let's just calculate the day when ATH will be taken: June 27, 2014.

From there, it will likely take only 30 days to make a new ATH that will last several months.

Unless the Chasm interrupts the underlying, 5-year old growth paradigm in a way that nothing in Bitcoin's history has yet been able to do.

[EuroTrash]

In reality I just transferred the overmajority of my trading capital to cold wallets.

Same here. My biggest bid filled exactly at 400. All the unfilled bids below 400 I cancelled and bought back at 510-515.
Thanks to you and a few others that made excellent calls. Those ones and my own instinct allowed me to be right more often than I was wrong.

Since I started dumping it's been intense weeks of crashes, rumours, late nights, TA, retracements, downswings and upswings to play. Now it's time for me to bring those old and new hard earned coins away from the exchange. They make a huge % of my net worth and I have enough of trading for a while.

Enjoy your party! 

[Undone]

I am going to my castle party and will be offline for a few days.

Pics or it didn't happen.