rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Jungian]

Well, Ukranians got until 3:00 GMT to surrender.  

-> http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/uk-ukraine-crisis-ultimatum-idUKBREA221AI20140303

Shit is about to hit the fan big time...

It´s a propaganda by westerners, who back Maidan (in this case CNN, who refused to give their source), Russians demented this, not that they have reason for ultimatum in situation, when Ukrainians defect to them in thousands. Simply FUD.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/721748

Lol, you claim propaganda and then you post that as a source.

Far more likely that Putin tested the waters with a ultimatum and then backed down and claimed he never issued it.

[Okurkabinladin]

Well, Ukranians got until 3:00 GMT to surrender.  

-> http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/uk-ukraine-crisis-ultimatum-idUKBREA221AI20140303

Shit is about to hit the fan big time...

It´s a propaganda by westerners, who back Maidan (in this case CNN, who refused to give their source), Russians demented this, not that they have reason for ultimatum in situation, when Ukrainians defect to them in thousands. Simply FUD.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/721748

Lol, you claim propaganda and then you post that as a source.

Far more likely that Putin tested the waters with a ultimatum and then backed down and claimed he never issued it.

Uh huh, it´s not like Putin is holding westerners and their new Kiev petdogs by their balls, while Russians already secured peninsula with no resistance at all (population is on their side), he has to "test waters", lol. You have some great info, sir.

Anyway, the point is, that misinformed idiots, who pray for yet another Syria/Lybia/Iraq will be letdown. There will be no war. Price of bitcoin will only be affected (positively), if indeed Eu shoots itself in the foot and tries to sanction Russian federation, cutting itself off from its natural resources and russian oligarchs from their accounts full of dollars they stole from their homeland (Cyprus redux). Billions of dollars would have to be redirected in that case, triggering surge of new fiat into cryptos.

[hdbuck]

Well, Ukranians got until 3:00 GMT to surrender.  

-> http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/03/uk-ukraine-crisis-ultimatum-idUKBREA221AI20140303

Shit is about to hit the fan big time...

It´s a propaganda by westerners, who back Maidan (in this case CNN, who refused to give their source), Russians demented this, not that they have reason for ultimatum in situation, when Ukrainians defect to them in thousands. Simply FUD.

http://en.itar-tass.com/world/721748

Lol, you claim propaganda and then you post that as a source.

Far more likely that Putin tested the waters with a ultimatum and then backed down and claimed he never issued it.

Uh huh, it´s not like Putin is holding westerners and their new Kiev petdogs by their balls, while Russians already secured peninsula with no resistance at all (population is on their side), he has to "test waters", lol. You have some great info, sir.

Anyway, the point is, that misinformed idiots, who pray for yet another Syria/Lybia/Iraq will be letdown. There will be no war. Price of bitcoin will only be affected (positively), if indeed Eu shoots itself in the foot and tries to sanction Russian federation, cutting itself off from its natural resources and russian oligarchs from their accounts full of dollars they stole from their homeland (Cyprus redux). Billions of dollars would have to be redirected in that case, triggering surge of new fiat into cryptos.

yea.. at this point everything is propaganda anyway..

But chances are that at some point, Putin will take a dump on US financial system.. (im not saying it wouldnt also have a severe impact over Russian system too.)

-> http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/russia-warns-could-reduce-to-zero-economic-dependency-on-us/articleshow/31403595.cms

An attempt to announce sanctions would end in a crash for the financial system of the United States, which would cause the end of the domination of the United States in the global financial system

What's bad for the world's financial system is good for Bitcoin. Isnt it?

[Jungian]

Bitcoin adoption and dollar collapse might not be very linked.  Dollar might collapse in value anyways.  And bitcoin adoption can happen or perhaps another crypto takes over with or without dollar collapsing.

I doubt the dollar is going anywhere in a few years. It's still the gobal reserve currency and will continue to be so for the near future. Capital will flow into the dollar from other less stable places.

Places where you really want BTC is places like Argentina, where inflation run rampant and it's hard to get USD. 

[Queeq]

Uh huh, it´s not like Putin is holding westerners and their new Kiev petdogs by their balls, while Russians already secured peninsula with no resistance at all (population is on their side), he has to "test waters", lol. You have some great info, sir.

Who really has great info is you, sir. None of Ukrainian military bases were taken. The vast majority of population is not on "their side". The only things happening there is provocations from Russian military and mercenaries which appears to have not much effect. So Jungian's assertion is pretty likely true.

However, this is TA thread, let's keep it out of political discussion, especially in the case where there is high probability that some people involved could be misinformed.

[sgbett]

You guys just have different investment styles.  Here's my caricature:

MatTheCat is always checking the data, guessing whether the walls are real or fake, drawing lines on charts, analyzing psychology, and going short or long as the situation and his intuition dictates.

Sgbett sits backs, sipping his scotch, and he waits........and waits......he hears the screams from outside, sees the blood in the streets, takes a large position, and returns to his lounge. 

Best call of the thread so far. I do indeed like to sip scotch whilst waiting

[chessnut]

As much as I am convinced that the tide is turning, we may still be dealing with a very uncertain number of coins in supply. as of yesterday, perhaps 180K more than we hoped.

critical levels from here are 600 and 530. if these are boken, the case becomes much stronger for possible new lows or a re-test of lows. I think the latest bull run was left hanging for too many days, and needs to form a new base.

[Solarstorm75]

You guys just have different investment styles.  Here's my caricature:

MatTheCat is always checking the data, guessing whether the walls are real or fake, drawing lines on charts, analyzing psychology, and going short or long as the situation and his intuition dictates.

Sgbett sits backs, sipping his scotch, and he waits........and waits......he hears the screams from outside, sees the blood in the streets, takes a large position, and returns to his lounge. 

Best call of the thread so far. I do indeed like to sip scotch whilst waiting

And while waiting sgbett missed the november'13 rally completely. 

[MAbtc]

Didn't get that final push to 700 I was hoping for.  

This has been my primary chart the last couple of days. It found me a couple good entries and exits, and is still on target. My target for this push was 650, doubt we'll get there. Short term up trend broken, but we're still straddling a fib support. (The arrows are not time-based)


Bounces aside, I'm looking for a downside target that overshoots the 50% retracement (710->400). Hopefully find entry near 539-557. This would keep us outside of February's down channel. But if it does play out anything like this, it means we aren't out of the woods yet, and a strong snap back from the 610 level (or below) could indicate a return to sub-500s.


Also, I like this guy's thoughts, entry at 586. More bullish.

[rpietila]

Best call of the thread so far. I do indeed like to sip scotch whilst waiting

And while waiting sgbett missed the november'13 rally completely. 

Sipping scotch only works profitably when you're holding BTC, not fiat

Btw. my castle, Malla, is now on day 8. The Day 0 party was nice, but revealed that we need moar bedrooms. So let's build some

I have commenced reparations there and the Château-Hôtel Malla is ready to open this summer. Even before that, if you really want to see me (or the place), just contact my reservations manager (contact info in the link).

[TERA]

What happened? The bitstamp order book looks like shit now. It's been halved since when it was trading in 500s. That's not normal for a true reversal. The bid depth should be continuing to increase every step of the way, not decrease!

[rpietila]

Seems that most of the bids below 500 were not legit 

I don't care too much anymore. The probability that we hit 500 anymore is shrinking. May happen, may not. In an uptrend, it is so hard to beat that holding gives better results for most. I'm going to hold for now.

[TERA]

I agree at this point, selling doesn't make sense because in 2 months from now the trend will be all caught up to this level. So think of it from a short's perspective. "Would I short here at 625 becuase maybe I'll see 450 after this tough struggle through all these low levels, but maybe I wont and it'll just shoot up to 700 and break out of the downtrend instead." A bad trading proposition, and it's almost not even worth the risk of having fiat on exchanges now, and not worth the stress of following the markets.  You can just remain in cold storage and leave the market, come back 2 months later, and see what's happening then. You might find out that 1 month ago you were "down" but now you're up. Also, if you're willing to keep coins on exchanges, you can keep your coins on bitfinex and then margin trade if some kind of volatile downspike happens (you'd be alerted by bitcoinparanoid etc).

But still I can't help but feel fear over this low volume drift down and sudden decrease in order books. I suspect there is a long sideways trading period in the 500s ahead until the real support trend catches up.

[rpietila]

I suspect there is a long sideways trading period in the 500s ahead until the real support trend catches up.

Agree 100%, but isn't that exactly
a) what happened last time
b) what I predicted this time
c) what we need right now? 

[zby]

What happened? The bitstamp order book looks like shit now. It's been halved since when it was trading in 500s. That's not normal for a true reversal. The bid depth should be continuing to increase every step of the way, not decrease!

The money was spent on panic buys up to 710.

[rpietila]

What happened? The bitstamp order book looks like shit now. It's been halved since when it was trading in 500s. That's not normal for a true reversal. The bid depth should be continuing to increase every step of the way, not decrease!

The money was spent on panic buys up to 710.

Hmm.. yeah, sounds legit. I had a load of buys below 500 one week ago, now just a few. So judging from own behaviour, that is quite possible.

Nevertheless, it is not good. The triple bottom scenario raises its ugly head...

Nah, after that one, it is clear that we are headed higher. No worries.

[mmitech]

Risto, while I hate most of the alts and question their existence, I am a fan and LTC supporter for a while now, so I wanted to ask you if it is possible to take a look at the crypto market out of the box and tell me what you think.

Why I am asking this? I have been watching the crypto market in general, comparing the money flow in/out for all alts, I found that the volume of money invested in Litecoin is way more then you can even imagine, I also found out that the last 3-4 months Litecoin beats bitcoin by volume.

look at this bubbles http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/coins/graphicalComparison

they count the 24H volume of ALTcoin/USD and ALTcoin/BTC and they convert everything back to BTC and compare it to the BTC volume, so it is not 1 LTC compared to 1 BTC but it is the value of 1 BTC invested in that Altcoin instead.

data is recorded from almost all exchanges (I found out about many of exchanges there, I didn't know they existed at all)










So what is your take on this ?

[Dragonkiller]

So what is your take on this ?

Can you use it for something?

Can I use what ? your opinion or Litecoin ?

Edit: if you meant litecoin then yes, if you meant your opinion, well it just matters to me, I want to have different opinions from reputable people, I am in kinda analyzing something here.... so I would appreciate if you shared that info with me or rather with us...

What value does LTC add over BTC?

I suspect most alts will disappear (i.e. become even less significant than they already are) over the next year or two as people realize they offer no benefit over BTC and can't be used anywhere.

Also volume is higher because I think it is more volatile (better for day traders).

[F-bernanke]

Keep in mind that LTC has a very high inflation rate currently, so it takes alot of new fiat to keep the value up.

[MatTheCat]

What happened? The bitstamp order book looks like shit now. It's been halved since when it was trading in 500s. That's not normal for a true reversal. The bid depth should be continuing to increase every step of the way, not decrease!

Where do you guys get access to this information. i.e. the complete order book on Bitstamp?