rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[donut]

The configurable excelsheet is for sale for BTC5, including tutorial in skype chat.

This is actually a good deal, I will open it up in case somebody is interested.

The sheet works as follows:
- You can copypaste any data from Bitcoincharts.
- The system gives buy and sell signals according to the following rule:
IF "the last row volume is at least A" & "the highest volume in the last B rows is to the same direction as the last volume" & "the last change is at least C" & "the new signal is to the opposite direction as the current signal", THEN give a new signal.
- The parameters A, B, C can be fully customized. As you change them, you see in real time what signals the system would have given and when, how many total signals (too many leads to increase in fees), and what is the end result in $ or bitcoins in this time period. You can try several values per minute, and then zoom in to the interesting parts of the data, such as the flashcrashes.

So yes, I am giving all this work for (almost) free.  

I will think about it if you post a backtest from April 11 to Sept 26, 2013 with the same parameters you used for the current bubble deflation period, aka no overfitting.

[windjc]

The configurable excelsheet is for sale for BTC5, including tutorial in skype chat.

This is actually a good deal, I will open it up in case somebody is interested.

The sheet works as follows:
- You can copypaste any data from Bitcoincharts.
- The system gives buy and sell signals according to the following rule:
IF "the last row volume is at least A" & "the highest volume in the last B rows is to the same direction as the last volume" & "the last change is at least C" & "the new signal is to the opposite direction as the current signal", THEN give a new signal.
- The parameters A, B, C can be fully customized. As you change them, you see in real time what signals the system would have given and when, how many total signals (too many leads to increase in fees), and what is the end result in $ or bitcoins in this time period. You can try several values per minute, and then zoom in to the interesting parts of the data, such as the flashcrashes.

So yes, I am giving all this work for (almost) free. 

I'll do this. Pay me 5 BTC and I'll take the chart and trade it for 6 months and give you 20% of the profits. Deal? KTHXBYE

[rpietila]

I will think about it if you post a backtest from April 11 to Sept 26, 2013 with the same parameters you used for the current bubble deflation period, aka no overfitting.

Very same parameters used, which may be near optimal (but likely are not, especially volume threshold was fixed figure and BS volume was not generally that big those days..) :

Code:

10.4.2013 18:00	130,00	-1			13 000	0,00
16.4.2013 14:00	74,00	1	76 %		0	175,68
19.4.2013 8:00	120,16	-1			21 109	0,00
3.5.2013 12:00	90,10	1	33 %		0	234,29
6.5.2013 20:00	110,66	-1			25 926	0,00
4.7.2013 6:00	76,99	1	44 %		0	336,75 <--- !!!
5.7.2013 16:00	68,50	-1			23 067	0,00
10.7.2013 18:00	79,41	1	-14 %		0	290,48
18.7.2013 6:00	79,22	-1			23 012	0,00
19.8.2013 6:00	102,60	1	-23 %		0	224,29
6.9.2013 18:00	117,05	-1			26 253	0,00
9.9.2013 14:00	122,35	1	-4 %		0	214,57

Notable is that it has generated 3.4x the number of bitcoins during the 3-mo downtrend despite selling only at $130 in the start. But at the instant the price starts to go up, it has lost quite many coins.

[SlipperySlope]

Regarding trading bots and systems for Bitcoin, I am very much hopeful that Chinese exchanges while expanding outside the mainland, bring with them the high volume and good order depth that resulted from their competitive policies of zero-fee trading.

I would like to see OKCoin or Huobi host the BTC/USD currency pair with zero fees.

It pains me to add up the round trip commissions that I paid Mt. Gox. I wrote a Mt.Gox bot but never deployed it. Market making bots, e.g. Volume Weighted Average Price algorithm, use realtime technical indicators to make frequent trades near the spread. Exchange commissions make operating such bots unprofitable.

[Trolololo]

(...)
The candle is locally-longest if it is longer than 3 candles in both sides. The locally-longest candle dominates the said candles in either side of it and they don't count no matter the color.
(...)

Interesting strategy, Risto.
But I have one doubt:

You can't know the 3 candles in the future.
So you have to wait 3 periods to determine wether a candle is locally dominant.

Have you simulated what's the rentability of your strategy if you place the buy/sell order 3 periods later than the locally dominant candle?

[rpietila]

The candle is locally-longest if it is longer than 3 candles in both sides. The locally-longest candle dominates the said candles in either side of it and they don't count no matter the color.

You can't know the 3 candles in the future.
So you have to wait 3 periods to determine wether a candle is locally dominant.

Have you simulated what's the rentability of your strategy if you place the buy/sell order 3 periods later than the locally dominant candle?

The script you quoted was based on my earlier, "soft" way of assessing whether we are in an uptrend or not. It was criticized because of unaccountability (by the very people who never divulge anything they have actually done, just claiming to have been, and being, correct all the time which is kind of annoying).

So I wanted to write an algorithm that would work in a similar way but actually be implementable:

IF "the last row volume is at least A" &
"the highest volume in the last B rows is to the same direction as the last volume" &
"the last change is at least C" &
"the new signal is to the opposite direction as the current signal",
THEN give a new signal.

- The parameters A, B, C can be fully customized. As you change them, you see in real time what signals the system would have given and when, how many total signals (too many leads to increase in fees), and what is the end result in $ or bitcoins in this time period. You can try several values per minute, and then zoom in to the interesting parts of the data, such as the flashcrashes.

It is not looking into the future, but it places a lag on the trend changes because the volume towards the new trend direction has to be greater than the volume in the old direction, in any of the previous B time periods.

I am hesitant to implement this because it is based on volume, which is so easy to manipulate. Also this one seems to do terribly once the rise starts. (If you can know the exact high and low points of the downtrend, even more than 3-4x your bitcoins can easily be achieved so trading algo is not needed )

Price is not considered when it gives the signals, haha funny. Blind monkey.

[rpietila]

Quick TA update (at $0.481):
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume during this week, conclusion: none/(historically: bearish)
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.040, slippage to buy: $0.043, conclusion: both sides have built up since last time
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.355 log units. The trendline is at $1.090 and rising $0.008 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (note: it is not necessary that 'rock bottom' will change until the parabolic uptrend starts, because the trendline is itself rising)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: shortest term unsecure, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

Quick TA update (at $0.460):
- 6H candle color/volume: red candles are taller, conclusion: bearish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.040, slippage to buy: $0.056, conclusion: easier to move to the upside
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.365 log units. The trendline is at $1.060 and rising $0.007 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.404...+0.518)
- Sentiment: fearish, bearish, conclusion: less downside than generally feared
- Prognosis: shortest term don't know, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

ADD: If sentiment is bearish, it indicated that the price will surprise to the upside, and vice versa.

Quick TA update (at $0.450):
- 6H candle color/volume: GREEN rules for last 5 days, although short, conclusion: slightly bullish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.037, slippage to buy: $0.049, conclusion: pressure to the downside, surprise to the upside (when one side has lower figure than the other, it means that price has moved to that direction, eroding the bids/asks - if there is a reversal, it can move quickly to the other side with less resistance)
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.384 log units. The trendline is at $1.090 and rising $0.008 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.404...+0.518)
- Sentiment: weak
- Prognosis: shortest term don't know, mid-term not sure if reversal seems confirmed, long-term (3+ months) buy zone

Quick TA update (at $0.429):
- 6H candle color/volume: very little volume for last few days, conclusion: historically bearish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.029, slippage to buy: $0.045, conclusion: pressure to the downside, surprise to the upside (when one side has lower figure than the other, it means that price has moved to that direction, eroding the bids/asks - if there is a reversal, it can move quickly to the other side with less resistance)
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.420 log units. The trendline is at $1.128 and rising $0.008 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.420...+0.518)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: short term risk for downside, mid-term we are still in a downtrend, long-term (3+ months) strong buy zone

Quick TA update (at $0.449):
- 6H candle color/volume: greens rule on quite little volume, conclusion: slightly bullish
- Bid/ask strength at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.029, slippage to buy: $0.045, conclusion: buy pressure has created potential for further upside
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.413 log units. The trendline is at $1.161 and rising $0.008 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (the 12-month range of the trendline is -0.420...+0.518)
- Sentiment: hopeful
- Prognosis: short term likely upside, mid-term breakout from the downtrend not confirmed, long-term (3+ months) strong buy zone

The backtested trading signals are now SHORT. The signal changes to LONG in the event of a large enough move up with large enough volume that beats the volume of a long enough time before it.

[darlidada]

I put some money on an exchange the day bitcoin hits 360$ and i'm still waiting a window to buy.... I dont think I am the only one. Now thats its back at 450, I wish I had bought 5 days ago. I'm sure I'm not the only one.

What shall I do rpietila?

[rpietila]

I put some money on an exchange the day bitcoin hits 360$ and i'm still waiting a window to buy.... I dont think I am the only one. Now thats its back at 450, I wish I had bought 5 days ago. I'm sure I'm not the only one.

What shall I do rpietila?

Depends on how many % of your liquid worth you already have invested in bitcoins. If you are already fully invested, it might not make sense to buy now because the downtrend may continue and you don't want to end up selling your coins at anywhere near these prices. So it's good to have some cash reserve.

But if you are moderately invested (<50% of total assets), and want to buy more, this is a good time. Although if you are investing long-term, you can as well wait for the breach of 500. It does not really matter because the selling price is so much higher. The important thing is to buy before the next big runup.

If we are talking about short-term only, I refuse to give any advice since I don't know your trading strategy.

[UglyTroll]

Price wouldn't go anywhere 

[klee]

Where is BTC most likely going the coming week? A dip again or should we reach $500? Any prediction of this?
Maybe a hard/impossible question to answer but I would like to hear your prediction anyway.

Forever @450$

[darlidada]

I put some money on an exchange the day bitcoin hits 360$ and i'm still waiting a window to buy.... I dont think I am the only one. Now thats its back at 450, I wish I had bought 5 days ago. I'm sure I'm not the only one.

What shall I do rpietila?

Depends on how many % of your liquid worth you already have invested in bitcoins. If you are already fully invested, it might not make sense to buy now because the downtrend may continue and you don't want to end up selling your coins at anywhere near these prices. So it's good to have some cash reserve.

But if you are moderately invested (<50% of total assets), and want to buy more, this is a good time. Although if you are investing long-term, you can as well wait for the breach of 500. It does not really matter because the selling price is so much higher. The important thing is to buy before the next big runup.

If we are talking about short-term only, I refuse to give any advice since I don't know your trading strategy.

Thank you so much for replying to me! It's indeed for a very long term investment but that doesn't mean im not trying to maximise the bitcoin i get from my fiat. I dont know if its because we are in a downtrade market but I feel like every trade I made so far could have been a better one. For instance, the lowest bitcoin I had was at 450. And when it was at 430 I didnt buy in ! I think that was a silly move. I'm gonna make it sure to always take advantage to get a cheaper btcoin next time. Now its at 450 again and I feel like an idiot because I'm sure I'm not the only one who put money on the exchange while BTC hit 360. There are many of us who are impatient to buy in. We've all waited bitcoin to dip the last 10 days but it didnt.

It's especially frustrating because I'm NEARLY fully invested in so I'd really like to get the best value for my last investment FOR ONCE. I know im reasoning short term, but I'm sure I could have done better.

[BitChick]

I put some money on an exchange the day bitcoin hits 360$ and i'm still waiting a window to buy.... I dont think I am the only one. Now thats its back at 450, I wish I had bought 5 days ago. I'm sure I'm not the only one.

What shall I do rpietila?

Depends on how many % of your liquid worth you already have invested in bitcoins. If you are already fully invested, it might not make sense to buy now because the downtrend may continue and you don't want to end up selling your coins at anywhere near these prices. So it's good to have some cash reserve.

But if you are moderately invested (<50% of total assets), and want to buy more, this is a good time. Although if you are investing long-term, you can as well wait for the breach of 500. It does not really matter because the selling price is so much higher. The important thing is to buy before the next big runup.

If we are talking about short-term only, I refuse to give any advice since I don't know your trading strategy.

Thank you so much for replying to me! It's indeed for a very long term investment but that doesn't mean im not trying to maximise the bitcoin i get from my fiat. I dont know if its because we are in a downtrade market but I feel like every trade I made so far could have been a better one. For instance, the lowest bitcoin I had was at 450. And when it was at 430 I didnt buy in ! I think that was a silly move. I'm gonna make it sure to always take advantage to get a cheaper btcoin next time. Now its at 450 again and I feel like an idiot because I'm sure I'm not the only one who put money on the exchange while BTC hit 360. There are many of us who are impatient to buy in. We've all waited bitcoin to dip the last 10 days but it didnt.

It's especially frustrating because I'm NEARLY fully invested in so I'd really like to get the best value for my last investment FOR ONCE. I know im reasoning short term, but I'm sure I could have done better.

It is incredibly hard to time the lows perfectly.  Just try to have the "big picture" in view when investing in Bitcoin.  There have been many times where I could have purchase lower and wish I had but after the next big run-up in price it won't really matter if you got coins for $360 or for $450 when the price is $5000.  You will just be glad you got them or held them.   But the thing that gets most people is the thinking I could have gotten more if I had purchased or traded at the right time.  It is not as easy as it sounds or everyone would be doing it.

[rpietila]

It's especially frustrating because I'm NEARLY fully invested in so I'd really like to get the best value for my last investment FOR ONCE. I know im reasoning short term, but I'm sure I could have done better.

My advice would be to wait for bitcoin to hit $100. Then you get a reasonable value for your last dollars.

Before choking, listen to the reasoning: Bitcoin is going to incredible heights. If you go all-in now and the price goes down, or stays at this level for any longer time, you are tempted to sell at a loss. If it goes up, you are tempted to sell at least a part of your position way too early. If you wait until it hits $100 (which it doesn't), then your attitude is always that "I could have bought more coins, but didn't, so I have to hold on to the ones I have". That way you don't sell out too cheaply, and in the end make both more dollars and bitcoins.

And if it crashes hard, at least you still have some cash 

[darlidada]

It's especially frustrating because I'm NEARLY fully invested in so I'd really like to get the best value for my last investment FOR ONCE. I know im reasoning short term, but I'm sure I could have done better.

My advice would be to wait for bitcoin to hit $100. Then you get a reasonable value for your last dollars.

Before choking, listen to the reasoning: Bitcoin is going to incredible heights. If you go all-in now and the price goes down, or stays at this level for any longer time, you are tempted to sell at a loss. If it goes up, you are tempted to sell at least a part of your position way too early. If you wait until it hits $100 (which it doesn't), then your attitude is always that "I could have bought more coins, but didn't, so I have to hold on to the ones I have". That way you don't sell out too cheaply, and in the end make both more dollars and bitcoins.

And if it crashes hard, at least you still have some cash 

Thanks! That makes a lot of sense. Now the problem is how to be able to invest when the coin is cheap. It seems I'm always late at the party! There are some flashcrash but they are very short. In 24h, there is a rebound. Do you guys leave money on an exchange all the time ? It seems the natural way to do it, but its also risky. Is there a rule you follow when you leave cash on an exchange ?

[pinksheep]

It's especially frustrating because I'm NEARLY fully invested in so I'd really like to get the best value for my last investment FOR ONCE. I know im reasoning short term, but I'm sure I could have done better.

My advice would be to wait for bitcoin to hit $100. Then you get a reasonable value for your last dollars.

Before choking, listen to the reasoning: Bitcoin is going to incredible heights.

I think I have just about lost all faith in BTC going to incredible heights. Seems like adoption has slowed & there are too many attempts to stifle it.

[dave00]

It's especially frustrating because I'm NEARLY fully invested in so I'd really like to get the best value for my last investment FOR ONCE. I know im reasoning short term, but I'm sure I could have done better.

My advice would be to wait for bitcoin to hit $100. Then you get a reasonable value for your last dollars.

Before choking, listen to the reasoning: Bitcoin is going to incredible heights.

I think I have just about lost all faith in BTC going to incredible heights. Seems like adoption has slowed & there are too many attempts to stifle it.

You're here from this february young noobie

wait with calm 

[pinksheep]

Last night for the 1st time I began to doubt my investment. That doesn't mean, I'll sell - I definitely won't. I'll be cashing out either much, much higher than now, or not at all.

[pinksheep]

[/quote]

You're here from this february young noobie

wait with calm 
[/quote]

A little longer than February 

[pinksheep]

Oh I see what you mean, I joined this forum in Feb but I had BTC before that.