rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[aminorex]

It is diffucult to calculate the unknowable probabilities.
As an example, Drake equation together with Kepler data suggest that life should be all over the Universe, but so far-no indication of intelligence being present anywhere else-Fermi's paradox. My point is-it is diffucult to calculate the true probability of an event when too many variables are involved.

If you were intelligent, would you call Earth?

If you were intelligent, would you DESIGN Earth?

No, but I would design the multiverse within which its containing universe was possible.

[1714488172]

1714488172

[isov]

The going rate before the announcement was 650 so anything below is already a discount.

Well it looks like the coins at auction went for a premium. https://twitter.com/barrysilbert and https://twitter.com/BitcoinBreak/status/483698871802277889. The question now becomes: How big a premium?

One thing is becoming clear those who sold in anticipation of this auction are likely taking a loss. The question again becomes: How big a loss?

This looks damn good to me! Starts to sound like the rails might be resonating a bit if you put your ear really really close and listen carefully...

[ArticMine]

The going rate before the announcement was 650 so anything below is already a discount.

Well it looks like the coins at auction went for a premium. https://twitter.com/barrysilbert and https://twitter.com/BitcoinBreak/status/483698871802277889. The question now becomes is how big a premium?

One thing is becoming clear those who sold in anticipation of this auction are likely taking a loss. The question again becomes how big a loss.

i think the question is more when do these people start to realize and panic buy? 

Starting of course with the losing bidders. What the losing bidders will or will not do and the amount of the losing bids may actually be more relevant than the amount of the winning bids. According to Coindesk there were 63 bidders. http://www.coindesk.com/us-marshals-release-new-data-silk-road-bitcoin-auction/. The majority of these deep pocketed bidders walked away from this auction with not even a single satoshi.

[pa]

I think there's going to be a large increase in bitcoin price, to the mid-700's or possibly low 800's, during the week July 4 to July 11 because of the US holiday weekend, when family and friends will get together over barbecues and discuss sundry matters including Bitcoin. Holidays seem to aid in diffusion of knowledge and interest in Bitcoin. Has anyone else noticed the "holiday effect" on bitcoin prices? Any holiday technical analyses out there?

[okthen]

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Looks like this particular prediction will come out right. On rpietila's time zone, it may even be exact.

Risto is a boss, this is spooky accurate.

Wow, it's truly spot on!
I hope he predicts 10000 for the beginning of August or something

[zimmah]

The going rate before the announcement was 650 so anything below is already a discount.

Well it looks like the coins at auction went for a premium. https://twitter.com/barrysilbert and https://twitter.com/BitcoinBreak/status/483698871802277889. The question now becomes is how big a premium?

One thing is becoming clear those who sold in anticipation of this auction are likely taking a loss. The question again becomes how big a loss.

i think the question is more when do these people start to realize and panic buy?  

i think you are reffering to this:

Announcement: The SecondMarket / Bitcoin Investment Trust bidding syndicate for the US Marshals bitcoin auction was outbid on all blocks

I already expected (like any sensible person would) that the coins would go at a premium (the vocal majority here seemed to think otherwise), but this tweet makes me think they went for even more of a premium than i thought.

Also we can assume the losing bidders to buy bitcoins from exchanges soon.

also:

So basically at least USD$20MM of bitcoin buying demand went unsatisfied in the auction and will look elsewhere to buy bitcoins i.e. market

20M / 30k = 666.66 (lol)


seriously though, that means we will likely see the price surge to above $666 and leave it behind permanently i guess.

[gentlemand]

Burying 666 forever will give me more satisfaction than hitting an ATH.

[BitchicksHusband]

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Looks like this particular prediction will come out right. On rpietila's time zone, it may even be exact.

Risto is a boss, this is spooky accurate.

Wow, it's truly spot on!
I hope he predicts 10000 for the beginning of August or something

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6847561#msg6847561

we are there earliest mid-July at 4700. If it postpones till August or longer, it also goes higher.

[okthen]

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Looks like this particular prediction will come out right. On rpietila's time zone, it may even be exact.

Risto is a boss, this is spooky accurate.

Wow, it's truly spot on!
I hope he predicts 10000 for the beginning of August or something

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6847561#msg6847561

we are there earliest mid-July at 4700. If it postpones till August or longer, it also goes higher.

Oh wow!
Now I hope we are lower than 4700 mid-July!
Never thought I'd say that

[BitchicksHusband]

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Looks like this particular prediction will come out right. On rpietila's time zone, it may even be exact.

Risto is a boss, this is spooky accurate.

Wow, it's truly spot on!
I hope he predicts 10000 for the beginning of August or something

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6847561#msg6847561

we are there earliest mid-July at 4700. If it postpones till August or longer, it also goes higher.

Oh wow!
Now I hope we are lower than 4700 mid-July!
Never thought I'd say that

I think the auction is going to make us late...

[okthen]

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Looks like this particular prediction will come out right. On rpietila's time zone, it may even be exact.

Risto is a boss, this is spooky accurate.

Wow, it's truly spot on!
I hope he predicts 10000 for the beginning of August or something

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6847561#msg6847561

we are there earliest mid-July at 4700. If it postpones till August or longer, it also goes higher.

Oh wow!
Now I hope we are lower than 4700 mid-July!
Never thought I'd say that

I think the auction is going to make us late...

But the whole auction fuss is over, no?
We already know we won't know the winning bids unless each winner tells it publicly.
Which means there won't be a single-moment news that tells us everything...

[explorer]

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Looks like this particular prediction will come out right. On rpietila's time zone, it may even be exact.

Risto is a boss, this is spooky accurate.

Wow, it's truly spot on!
I hope he predicts 10000 for the beginning of August or something

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6847561#msg6847561

we are there earliest mid-July at 4700. If it postpones till August or longer, it also goes higher.

Oh wow!
Now I hope we are lower than 4700 mid-July!
Never thought I'd say that

I think the auction is going to make us late...

Next peak no sooner than early/mid August, if past performance has anything to say to it.  Later works for me 

[Miz4r]

I think the FBI auction has turned out really bullish for Bitcoin. We know SecondMarket got outbid completely so this shows there's lots of buying power out there that's interested and they're not fooling around low-balling. I can see this leading up to something way bigger and today's rally may have just been the beginning of this.

[DieJohnny]

I feel this thread is like a cult. The more confident everyone is about a bubble to $3,000 the less confident I think we will ever see $1000 again.

I thin you shud all start pumping dread and doom, i would feel a lot better about the future if you did.

[windjc]

I feel this thread is like a cult. The more confident everyone is about a bubble to $3,000 the less confident I think we will ever see $1000 again.

I thin you shud all start pumping dread and doom, i would feel a lot better about the future if you did.

Nobody cares about your opinion.

[smoothie]

I feel this thread is like a cult. The more confident everyone is about a bubble to $3,000 the less confident I think we will ever see $1000 again.

I thin you shud all start pumping dread and doom, i would feel a lot better about the future if you did.

Then you should feel like selling then if that is your feeling. 

[600watt]

I feel this thread is like a cult. The more confident everyone is about a bubble to $3,000 the less confident I think we will ever see $1000 again.

I thin you shud all start pumping dread and doom, i would feel a lot better about the future if you did.

the past 6 months got you hooked ? 

[Its About Sharing]

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Looks like this particular prediction will come out right. On rpietila's time zone, it may even be exact.

Risto is a boss, this is spooky accurate.

Wow, it's truly spot on!
I hope he predicts 10000 for the beginning of August or something

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6847561#msg6847561

we are there earliest mid-July at 4700. If it postpones till August or longer, it also goes higher.

Oh wow!
Now I hope we are lower than 4700 mid-July!
Never thought I'd say that

I think the auction is going to make us late...

But the whole auction fuss is over, no?
We already know we won't know the winning bids unless each winner tells it publicly.
Which means there won't be a single-moment news that tells us everything...

29,000 coins were sold, but that was just the escrowed coins (or something like that).
Ulbrichts private stash is 144,000 coins. So, for perspectives sake, things are "just starting".
I quote that as the trial may be a bit long so who knows when those coins hit the market.

But, most importantly, the sale has been bullish. It has been shown the demand is way higher than the supply.
I imagine companies like Bitpay and the like can have buyers for all coins collected each day (meaning their coins may never hit markets.)

IAS

[windjc]

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Looks like this particular prediction will come out right. On rpietila's time zone, it may even be exact.

Risto is a boss, this is spooky accurate.

Wow, it's truly spot on!
I hope he predicts 10000 for the beginning of August or something

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6847561#msg6847561

we are there earliest mid-July at 4700. If it postpones till August or longer, it also goes higher.

Oh wow!
Now I hope we are lower than 4700 mid-July!
Never thought I'd say that

I think the auction is going to make us late...

But the whole auction fuss is over, no?
We already know we won't know the winning bids unless each winner tells it publicly.
Which means there won't be a single-moment news that tells us everything...

29,000 coins were sold, but that was just the escrowed coins (or something like that).
Ulbrichts private stash is 144,000 coins. So, for perspectives sake, things are "just starting".
I quote that as the trial may be a bit long so who knows when those coins hit the market.

But, most importantly, the sale has been bullish. It has been shown the demand is way higher than the supply.
I imagine companies like Bitpay and the like can have buyers for all coins collected each day (meaning their coins may never hit markets.)

IAS

This is already happening and one of the reasons that volume on exchanges has been going steadily down.

[okthen]

TL; DR: We are at 650 in the beginning of July, 2014.

Looks like this particular prediction will come out right. On rpietila's time zone, it may even be exact.

Risto is a boss, this is spooky accurate.

Wow, it's truly spot on!
I hope he predicts 10000 for the beginning of August or something

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg6847561#msg6847561

we are there earliest mid-July at 4700. If it postpones till August or longer, it also goes higher.

Oh wow!
Now I hope we are lower than 4700 mid-July!
Never thought I'd say that

I think the auction is going to make us late...

But the whole auction fuss is over, no?
We already know we won't know the winning bids unless each winner tells it publicly.
Which means there won't be a single-moment news that tells us everything...

29,000 coins were sold, but that was just the escrowed coins (or something like that).
Ulbrichts private stash is 144,000 coins. So, for perspectives sake, things are "just starting".
I quote that as the trial may be a bit long so who knows when those coins hit the market.

But, most importantly, the sale has been bullish. It has been shown the demand is way higher than the supply.
I imagine companies like Bitpay and the like can have buyers for all coins collected each day (meaning their coins may never hit markets.)

IAS

This is already happening and one of the reasons that volume on exchanges has been going steadily down.

Hmm then maybe there are big names already getting in and we're not even aware?
I imagine the next bubble will only come when all those out-of-exchange coins are dispatched, then.