pille
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June 27, 2016, 03:14:16 PM |
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You have to borrow the Dash before you can place an order. You can see the open positions in you lending account, even if the order is not filled. So the big sell wall definitely is borrowing and paying fees (as long as it's not his own Dash).
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ddink7
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June 27, 2016, 03:20:26 PM |
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After watching polo lending market, the last two days, my interpretation is that these sells are mostly margin based, has someone else observed it, or even more insight?
That can be the cause. Since Dash can be margin-traded it is profitable in both directions for traders. And it seems to be easier to cause a long downtrend than a rise now. Especially when there is no demand. But also I don't get the purpose of the sell wall at 0.015. It's obvious price won't go there anytime soon. Then why doesn't he move it lower or sell into buy orders? All the support walls were either dumped into or mostly moved to 0.006 or pulled. Unfortunately our market is heavily manipulated. That sell wall at 0.015 is almost certainly fake, meaning it would vanish as soon as someone bought into it. The way margin selling (short selling) works is that I can put $100,000 in BTC on Poloniex and then open a margin sell order for $250,000 worth of any crypto that is margin tradeable, including Dash. I can, of course, pull the sell order any time I want to. What does this mean? The person who put out that sell wall at .015 probably doesn't even own one single Dash! ( This wouldn't effect lending rates either, since technically no part of that order has been filled, so no Dash has actually been borrowed.) We also had a massive, almost 50k buywall at 0.013 that got partially bought into and then pulled back to the .009 - .01 area. Then it got cut in half and pulled back to the .006 area. What that means is somebody is trying to make the market *think* that a "floor" has been set. In reality, those orders keep getting pulled every time the price comes anywhere close, so they are also obviously fake. (The wall at .013 may have been intended as "real," but was heavily bought into when BTC rose above $600.) Unfortunately, when traders see massive "support" walls pulled, they assume that somebody is trying to artificially boost the price, which damages confidence. Really? I lend on polo but did not know this. So the lending doesn't actually happen until the borrower has actually sold the borrowed coins? If that's the case, that makes for some very easy price manipulation with very little risk to the manipulator. I'm 90% sure, but maybe somebody could confirm? Don't have access to any funds right now to test (at work). My understanding is that I can create a limit margin sell order at 0.015, and since the price is not yet 0.015, the order will be entered but there will no Dash borrowed since there is no Dash sold. I could be wrong though... you are wrong. those Dash have to be lent at the moment you put them into the orderbook. OK, my bad then. Thanks for the correction! In that case, my only guess is a whale who is trying to push the price down to enter lower. That's a hell of a thing, since he's missing out on tons of masternode rewards and taking a lot of exchange risk.
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toknormal
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June 27, 2016, 04:53:28 PM |
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Looks like the network nodecount is closing in on 3900.
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crysx
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 27, 2016, 05:00:47 PM |
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Looks like the network nodecount is closing in on 3900.
possibly 4000 by the end of the month ... #crysx
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TanteStefana2
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June 27, 2016, 05:06:36 PM |
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An interesting look back at the 50th anniversary of the credit card: http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36518248Especially since it reflects at how fast or how long it takes for a new technology to become the norm ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) This part is especially funny: "Looking ahead, plastic cards will take over from cash to become the UK's most frequently used payment method by 2021, reckons Payment UK." Because in Europe, they are much heavier cash users than in the US. In the US, most people by a long shot use debit or credit cards and don't carry much cash (unless they are part of the unbanked, which we have a lot of)
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Another proud lifetime Dash Foundation member ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) My TanteStefana account was hacked, Beware trading "You'll never reach your destination if you stop to throw stones at every dog that barks."Sir Winston Churchill BTC: 12pu5nMDPEyUGu3HTbnUB5zY5RG65EQE5d
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Riseman
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 27, 2016, 08:18:49 PM |
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Looks like the network nodecount is closing in on 3900.
possibly 4000 by the end of the month ... #crysx It makes me think MN count is merely a time function, not much related to market activity. Of course, I can be wrong. Also it should increase at least 4 MNs a day not to fall behind the coin emission and to not decrease the MN percentage of whole supply.
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megges
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 27, 2016, 08:39:37 PM |
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Looks like the network nodecount is closing in on 3900.
possibly 4000 by the end of the month ... #crysx It makes me think MN count is merely a time function, not much related to market activity. Of course, I can be wrong. Also it should increase at least 4 MNs a day not to fall behind the coin emission and to not decrease the MN percentage of whole supply. hmm i guess you are wrong ... coin emission is about 2k a day ... so 2 new mn a day ... or am i wrong? https://chainz.cryptoid.info/dash/#!overview
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tip me! ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) XtSrWch1U3BsTBFBHj7acTTzxFo1fy5BMa
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Riseman
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 27, 2016, 09:44:59 PM |
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Looks like the network nodecount is closing in on 3900.
possibly 4000 by the end of the month ... #crysx It makes me think MN count is merely a time function, not much related to market activity. Of course, I can be wrong. Also it should increase at least 4 MNs a day not to fall behind the coin emission and to not decrease the MN percentage of whole supply. hmm i guess you are wrong ... coin emission is about 2k a day ... so 2 new mn a day ... or am i wrong? https://chainz.cryptoid.info/dash/#!overview Seems like somewhere in between. 3.88 * 770 = 2987.6
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Lebubar
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June 27, 2016, 10:02:34 PM |
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Looks like the network nodecount is closing in on 3900.
possibly 4000 by the end of the month ... #crysx It makes me think MN count is merely a time function, not much related to market activity. Of course, I can be wrong. Also it should increase at least 4 MNs a day not to fall behind the coin emission and to not decrease the MN percentage of whole supply. hmm i guess you are wrong ... coin emission is about 2k a day ... so 2 new mn a day ... or am i wrong? https://chainz.cryptoid.info/dash/#!overview Seems like somewhere in between. 3.88 * 770 = 2987.6 ![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif) There is 576 block per day and give 5*0.93*0.93=4.3 Dash per block (two time reduction of 7%) ~2476 Dash per day. Edit: Each block 3.87 Dash are produced (4.3 less 10% for the budget), and 0.43 are not produced during the block itself, but they are produced each month during super block.
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UdjinM6
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June 27, 2016, 10:11:31 PM Last edit: June 27, 2016, 10:25:39 PM by UdjinM6 |
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Looks like the network nodecount is closing in on 3900.
possibly 4000 by the end of the month ... #crysx It makes me think MN count is merely a time function, not much related to market activity. Of course, I can be wrong. Also it should increase at least 4 MNs a day not to fall behind the coin emission and to not decrease the MN percentage of whole supply. hmm i guess you are wrong ... coin emission is about 2k a day ... so 2 new mn a day ... or am i wrong? https://chainz.cryptoid.info/dash/#!overview Seems like somewhere in between. 3.88 * 770 = 2987.6 ![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif) There is 576 block per day and give 5*0.93*0.93=4.3 Dash per block (two time reduction of 7%) ~2476 Dash per day Let me jump in ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Every single block at current difficulty is always at min reward so: 5*13/14*13/14*0.9 = ~3,88 DASH per block - not 7% but 13/14 to be exact - 10% goes to superblocks With DGW3 we are somewhere around 540~550 blocks per day in reality instead of 576 so: (540~550)*3.88 = 2095~2134 DASH per day EDIT: Ahh, right, if we calculate avg rate rather then actual "normal" coin production, we should count superblocks here too so to be as much precise as possible: 2095~2134 + (whatever amount of 5*13/14*13/14*576*30*.1 = ~7449 DASH is generated every 16616 blocks for approved budgets)/(number of days that took to generate these 16616 blocks i.e. 16616/(550~540) = 30.2~30.7)
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DASH: XsV4GHVKGTjQFvwB7c6mYsGV3Mxf7iser6
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toknormal
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June 28, 2016, 01:15:10 AM |
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Very interesting post about whats going on in the Bitcoin market. Worth reading because similar things are probably going on all over the place. (OTC means "Over The Counter". Thats when large trades are carried out off exchange directly between a buyer and seller who negotiate the transaction). A few thing people here don't seem to understand:
Most buying is done off exchanges and OTC. By a wide margin too.
China is not leading this market.
No fee Chinese exchanges are being used to "control" the market, because bots are linked and people think China is leading the market.
Bitfinex is linked to Chinese exchanges to provide liquidity. Just like when BFX was linked to Stamp. That is why some full orderbooks are not shown. When a large drop occurs on Chinese exchanges the volume stays within the range, while Bitfinex drops with larger volume than normal. This is a combination of bot manipulation and Bitfinex offering liquidity.
The rise to nearly 800 was one entity, the OTC sellers and buyers waited until this entity was done and then plopped up over 25K BTC in ask walls, now it's up to 35K. The 35K BTC is a mix of real coins and borrowed coins for sale. You can see this by looking at the full order book, you notice the amounts for sale at XXX.37 repeatedly at every dollar interval? There are other patterns you will see as well.
The OTC buyers put sell pressure on BFX to keep the price down, so their OTC purchase will save them millions, by only making people who look at exchanges think we aren't mooning yet. Without their "fake" sell pressure we would be at ATH.
OTC firms do not care about this "manipulation" because they get a percentage in BTC and know that they will sell much more BTC OTC when the price is reasonable and not mooning. OTC firms might also be in on the fake sell pressure.
My guess is currently someone wants to buy OTC in the $650 range, or an OTC firm is seeing an influx of customers and is easier to just have stable prices for everyone Brexiting or running from their fiat market.
The Bitfinex "malfunction" was deliberate. Using statements from above you can see that dropping the Chinese exchanges prices are easy, causing all the longs on BFX to be force liquidated. Well guess who bought up all those coins that were liquidated while also putting the price back in their range? BFX has a ton of fees in BTC to sell, and guess how they do it? That's right, mostly OTC. And if a buyer says "no way I'm paying $700+ for those coins when the price has only been at this level for a week", then BFX has only one thing to do, bring the price back down in the OTC range.
Long term holders like myself, 4+ years, know this is going on and don't really care about exchange rates YET, because one day millions of small buyers who will only use exchanges will overpower any manipulation put forth by OTC markets and online exchanges.
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Riseman
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
June 28, 2016, 02:59:34 AM |
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![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FZA7MyFx.png&t=665&c=omCx17VzuC4fvg) So where're we now: 1 or 2? Or neither?
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alex-ru
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June 28, 2016, 06:00:48 AM |
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New video is produced - please, share it! https://youtu.be/eAznLOqNrwYThanks to @fernando, @tantestefana and @tungfa for the script and their help.
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tungfa
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June 28, 2016, 07:01:08 AM |
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stealth923
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June 28, 2016, 12:40:29 PM |
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lol @ the insane NEM pump thats going on.
Imagine if Dash was getting those kinds of volumes again - we would be seeing $30-40+ a coin
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Minotaur26
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June 28, 2016, 01:33:01 PM |
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I actually think it has much more to do with the coin supply and the fact that it is a proof of stake currency, one small start up making an announcement hardly justifies 100M marketcap. In crypto we tend to forget some fundamentals and compare the marketcap of a cryptocurrency as if it was the same as a company but it is not. In a company you have more information to judge with like the price to earnings ratio and a company's hard assets. In crypto is harder to determine if a valuation makes sense, but in this case it does not make sense to me. Just because someone paid one cent for one of this tokens recently it does not mean the project is worth 100M. 8,999,999,999 XEM were distributed to 1,500 initial stakeholders and to several multi-signature secured funds for marketing, distribution to late redeemers, operational costs, development, node rewards etc.
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ddink7
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June 28, 2016, 01:33:36 PM |
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Very interesting post about whats going on in the Bitcoin market. Worth reading because similar things are probably going on all over the place. (OTC means "Over The Counter". Thats when large trades are carried out off exchange directly between a buyer and seller who negotiate the transaction). A few thing people here don't seem to understand:
Most buying is done off exchanges and OTC. By a wide margin too.
China is not leading this market.
No fee Chinese exchanges are being used to "control" the market, because bots are linked and people think China is leading the market.
Bitfinex is linked to Chinese exchanges to provide liquidity. Just like when BFX was linked to Stamp. That is why some full orderbooks are not shown. When a large drop occurs on Chinese exchanges the volume stays within the range, while Bitfinex drops with larger volume than normal. This is a combination of bot manipulation and Bitfinex offering liquidity.
The rise to nearly 800 was one entity, the OTC sellers and buyers waited until this entity was done and then plopped up over 25K BTC in ask walls, now it's up to 35K. The 35K BTC is a mix of real coins and borrowed coins for sale. You can see this by looking at the full order book, you notice the amounts for sale at XXX.37 repeatedly at every dollar interval? There are other patterns you will see as well.
The OTC buyers put sell pressure on BFX to keep the price down, so their OTC purchase will save them millions, by only making people who look at exchanges think we aren't mooning yet. Without their "fake" sell pressure we would be at ATH.
OTC firms do not care about this "manipulation" because they get a percentage in BTC and know that they will sell much more BTC OTC when the price is reasonable and not mooning. OTC firms might also be in on the fake sell pressure.
My guess is currently someone wants to buy OTC in the $650 range, or an OTC firm is seeing an influx of customers and is easier to just have stable prices for everyone Brexiting or running from their fiat market.
The Bitfinex "malfunction" was deliberate. Using statements from above you can see that dropping the Chinese exchanges prices are easy, causing all the longs on BFX to be force liquidated. Well guess who bought up all those coins that were liquidated while also putting the price back in their range? BFX has a ton of fees in BTC to sell, and guess how they do it? That's right, mostly OTC. And if a buyer says "no way I'm paying $700+ for those coins when the price has only been at this level for a week", then BFX has only one thing to do, bring the price back down in the OTC range.
Long term holders like myself, 4+ years, know this is going on and don't really care about exchange rates YET, because one day millions of small buyers who will only use exchanges will overpower any manipulation put forth by OTC markets and online exchanges.
One problem: there were no liquidations following the bfx outages. They held all liquidations and even decided not to execute stops in order to avoid flash crash. The rest I agree with, just not the conspiracy part.
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Minotaur26
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June 28, 2016, 01:45:27 PM |
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One problem: there were no liquidations following the bfx outages. They held all liquidations and even decided not to execute stops in order to avoid flash crash. The rest I agree with, just not the conspiracy part.
To me when BFX stops trading and price starts dumping in other exchanges, it feels to me like they may be using the client's funds to dump in other exchanges, rebuy lower and square their books. It just feels as if they were filling an accounting hole. That is just an impression not a fact but I cant shake that feeling.
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ddink7
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June 28, 2016, 03:59:19 PM |
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One problem: there were no liquidations following the bfx outages. They held all liquidations and even decided not to execute stops in order to avoid flash crash. The rest I agree with, just not the conspiracy part.
To me when BFX stops trading and price starts dumping in other exchanges, it feels to me like they may be using the client's funds to dump in other exchanges, rebuy lower and square their books. It just feels as if they were filling an accounting hole. That is just an impression not a fact but I cant shake that feeling. They are supposed to have proof of reserves, but that doesn't mean there couldn't be something fishy about the fiat side of things. I can't imagine the staggering level of incompetence in not having a backup datacenter in case your primary goes down. Extraordinary.
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