2022–23 PBA Commissioner's Cup

[Maslate]

The line for Game 2 is up. Those who believe that SMB will bounce back to even the series can get them at -5.5 now. They had a good lead in Game 1 with 7 points, so I think a great strategy is to bet on them to cover the spread in the first half. If they don't cover in the first half, you can double down in the second half. There's no way SMB will go down 0-2 against the Meralco Bolts.

As for the total scoring, if SMB is dictating the game, it should easily go over. So, my prediction for Game 2 is to bet on the team total over for SMB and the combined total over for both teams.

There's a little movement on the point spread, as you posted, it was -5.5 but now it's already -7.5 for a 1.90 odds. Still over 4 hours before game 2, I'm gonna observe this, if the spread keeps rising, I'm gonna hammer the SMB here to win and cover. As to the total, it's the same as in game 2 at 190.5, if SMB gonna win, this should go over 190.5, but on the other hand, it's also possible that it will be a scoring game if SMB will fully dominate the Meralco Bolts.

So the -5.5 is already a steal now as SMB is looking to even the series. They scored only 86 points, that was their lowest this season IMO, and I think it will not happen again tonight. SMB only attempted 72 which is quite low compared to their previous games.

If we look back to their previous games when they swept the ROS, here are the statistics.

game 1  91 attempts
game 2  93 attempts
game 3  85 attempts
game 4 86 attempts

I am seeing an over for SMB team total here, it's currently over 97.5.


And PBA is now live in youtube. - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyXuRjiG1gE

[Japinat]

The line for Game 2 is up. Those who believe that SMB will bounce back to even the series can get them at -5.5 now. They had a good lead in Game 1 with 7 points, so I think a great strategy is to bet on them to cover the spread in the first half. If they don't cover in the first half, you can double down in the second half. There's no way SMB will go down 0-2 against the Meralco Bolts.

As for the total scoring, if SMB is dictating the game, it should easily go over. So, my prediction for Game 2 is to bet on the team total over for SMB and the combined total over for both teams.

There's a little movement on the point spread, as you posted, it was -5.5 but now it's already -7.5 for a 1.90 odds. Still over 4 hours before game 2, I'm gonna observe this, if the spread keeps rising, I'm gonna hammer the SMB here to win and cover. As to the total, it's the same as in game 2 at 190.5, if SMB gonna win, this should go over 190.5, but on the other hand, it's also possible that it will be a scoring game if SMB will fully dominate the Meralco Bolts.

So the -5.5 is already a steal now as SMB is looking to even the series. They scored only 86 points, that was their lowest this season IMO, and I think it will not happen again tonight. SMB only attempted 72 which is quite low compared to their previous games.

If we look back to their previous games when they swept the ROS, here are the statistics.

game 1  91 attempts
game 2  93 attempts
game 3  85 attempts
game 4 86 attempts

I am seeing an over for SMB team total here, it's currently over 97.5.

The line movement points out that SMB is gonna win this game via blowout, just like how Ginebra respond to the Meralco when they loss to them.

There's a big line movement happened, from -5.5 now up to -9.5. Whoever move that line is sure enough SMB is gonna win. Here's some logic, who would not take Meralco +9.5 after winning in game 1? This looks very easy to judge. Anyone riding my theory?

[Finestream]

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There's a big line movement happened, from -5.5 now up to -9.5. Whoever move that line is sure enough SMB is gonna win. Here's some logic, who would not take Meralco +9.5 after winning in game 1? This looks very easy to judge. Anyone riding my theory?

What's happening? This isn't right? I guess the mafia are now playing and try to cash out easy money. This line is really suspicious and we don't even have an idea what's happening inside. A typical gambler who does not care for the line movement would easily take +9.5, and probably even meralco moneyline.  Betting line movement like this is hard to pass, I'd go with you guys, falling on your theory @jap.

[Distinctin]

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There's a big line movement happened, from -5.5 now up to -9.5. Whoever move that line is sure enough SMB is gonna win. Here's some logic, who would not take Meralco +9.5 after winning in game 1? This looks very easy to judge. Anyone riding my theory?

What's happening? This isn't right? I guess the mafia are now playing and try to cash out easy money. This line is really suspicious and we don't even have an idea what's happening inside. A typical gambler who does not care for the line movement would easily take +9.5, and probably even meralco moneyline.  Betting line movement like this is hard to pass, I'd go with you guys, falling on your theory @jap.

The game has started, and SMB is taking control in the first quarter. If they continue to dominate and lead by double digits, that might suggest the theory is right. However, it's still too early to tell, as a lot can happen in a PBA game. I've seen teams come back from being down by 20 points to win by double digits.

I'm not betting on this game; I'm just watching for fun. However, I'd like to see SMB win to even the series. A long series is always exciting, and I'm hoping for a game 7 to make it even more thrilling.

[Fredomago]

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There's a big line movement happened, from -5.5 now up to -9.5. Whoever move that line is sure enough SMB is gonna win. Here's some logic, who would not take Meralco +9.5 after winning in game 1? This looks very easy to judge. Anyone riding my theory?

What's happening? This isn't right? I guess the mafia are now playing and try to cash out easy money. This line is really suspicious and we don't even have an idea what's happening inside. A typical gambler who does not care for the line movement would easily take +9.5, and probably even meralco moneyline.  Betting line movement like this is hard to pass, I'd go with you guys, falling on your theory @jap.

The game has started, and SMB is taking control in the first quarter. If they continue to dominate and lead by double digits, that might suggest the theory is right. However, it's still too early to tell, as a lot can happen in a PBA game. I've seen teams come back from being down by 20 points to win by double digits.

I'm not betting on this game; I'm just watching for fun. However, I'd like to see SMB win to even the series. A long series is always exciting, and I'm hoping for a game 7 to make it even more thrilling.

Bolts quickly made their own run and now change the tempo of the game, still early but Bolts is now in the lead if this momentum continue then we might see Bolts taking another control, though it can be a play for bettors and how analysis will take place, for SMB fans this is the best timing but for Meralco backer it's now another risk for taking this period betting for either ML or Handicap. It's anyone's game as both teams are really fighting for position, Bolts to have a a twice advantage while SMB to even and reset the series to the best of 5 games.

Good luck mga kabayan! same with you, I want my team to win but I'm not betting no available funds for now.

[Japinat]

Bolts quickly made their own run and now change the tempo of the game, still early but Bolts is now in the lead if this momentum continue then we might see Bolts taking another control, though it can be a play for bettors and how analysis will take place, for SMB fans this is the best timing but for Meralco backer it's now another risk for taking this period betting for either ML or Handicap. It's anyone's game as both teams are really fighting for position, Bolts to have a a twice advantage while SMB to even and reset the series to the best of 5 games.

Good luck mga kabayan! same with you, I want my team to win but I'm not betting no available funds for now.

Wrong call.

SMB really can't dominate  the Bolts, they are struggling early but just got lucky to end with a win, that's because of the Marcio's 3 point shot that gave them a 1 point lead. If that didn't sink, it could be 0-2 for them.

Not happy despite SMB wins because the spread was not covered, but that's fine, the series is now tied at 1-1, maybe next time I'll hit it right. By the way, the last 2 games went under, this is a very physical game so far, so I wouldn't be surprise if either team won't be able to score 100 points.

[Maslate]

Bolts quickly made their own run and now change the tempo of the game, still early but Bolts is now in the lead if this momentum continue then we might see Bolts taking another control, though it can be a play for bettors and how analysis will take place, for SMB fans this is the best timing but for Meralco backer it's now another risk for taking this period betting for either ML or Handicap. It's anyone's game as both teams are really fighting for position, Bolts to have a a twice advantage while SMB to even and reset the series to the best of 5 games.

Good luck mga kabayan! same with you, I want my team to win but I'm not betting no available funds for now.

Wrong call.

SMB really can't dominate  the Bolts, they are struggling early but just got lucky to end with a win, that's because of the Marcio's 3 point shot that gave them a 1 point lead. If that didn't sink, it could be 0-2 for them.

Not happy despite SMB wins because the spread was not covered, but that's fine, the series is now tied at 1-1, maybe next time I'll hit it right. By the way, the last 2 games went under, this is a very physical game so far, so I wouldn't be surprise if either team won't be able to score 100 points.

Yeah, I was thinking SMB would have a blowout win in game 2 but they are really having trouble finding their offense. Marcio saved them, that's the story, because if there was no clutch shooting by him, SMB would be in big trouble. From what I've seen so far, it seems like Meralco has a better chance of winning the series, I mean JMF could not dominate the paint, and the SMB's outside shooting aren't so effective.

After game 2, my interest has shifted to Meralco and I'll be betting on them in game 3.

[Russlenat]

After game 2, my interest has shifted to Meralco and I'll be betting on them in game 3.

This is the Finals that are going to be fun to watch. At first, we were thinking that Meralco does not stand a chance against a mighty SMB, but they were able to find a strategy to limit SMB on their scoring. If it was another team, SMB could easily score 100 points and more, but Meralco was able to limit them.

Although Meralco lost in Game 2, if we were watching the game, we would easily understand that SMB just got lucky and was able to come back and win. Everything was in favor of Meralco, especially the number of timeouts, but they just could not push for a win in that game. Game 3 comes this Sunday, and the arena should have at least a lot of people watching. It's not Ginebra, but this SMB team is more popular than Meralco, so somehow they could attract the crowd to watch the game.

[Fredomago]

After game 2, my interest has shifted to Meralco and I'll be betting on them in game 3.

This is the Finals that are going to be fun to watch. At first, we were thinking that Meralco does not stand a chance against a mighty SMB, but they were able to find a strategy to limit SMB on their scoring. If it was another team, SMB could easily score 100 points and more, but Meralco was able to limit them.

Although Meralco lost in Game 2, if we were watching the game, we would easily understand that SMB just got lucky and was able to come back and win. Everything was in favor of Meralco, especially the number of timeouts, but they just could not push for a win in that game. Game 3 comes this Sunday, and the arena should have at least a lot of people watching. It's not Ginebra, but this SMB team is more popular than Meralco, so somehow they could attract the crowd to watch the game.

Yes you are right, most expect that SMB will dominates them but Meralco manage to find the right system to limits SMB's productions, that JMF edge inside is not working well, Meralco's defense really giving Fajardo a hard time that on time double team keeps bothering him to create his shots, just like what you said that game 2 luck allows SMB to survive and snatch the game against them, almost getting that comfortable edge 2-0 but now the series were tied.

Let's see if what adjustments both teams will implement and how players will execute their offense and defense to win the game.

[Distinctin]

SMB was surprised by Meralco's big run in the first quarter, but as usual, they managed to come back, and we are seeing a tie ball game now. This is a crucial game for both teams; it's game 3, and whoever takes the lead in the series will not feel much pressure going into game 4. So, I think this game is still going to be low scoring, and Meralco could win but would easily cover the handicap if they lose again. ..

[Finestream]

SMB was surprised by Meralco's big run in the first quarter, but as usual, they managed to come back, and we are seeing a tie ball game now. This is a crucial game for both teams; it's game 3, and whoever takes the lead in the series will not feel much pressure going into game 4. So, I think this game is still going to be low scoring, and Meralco could win but would easily cover the handicap if they lose again. ..

And Meralco has taken the lead in the series with a victory tonight.

Newsome had a winning shot, that was a 3 point shot that gave them a good lead, and SMB is trying to respond with a shot from CJ but he miss badly. The series now looks very exciting, I didn't expect to see it this way, in fact this series could have been 3-0 if not for the heroic shot of Marcio in game 2.

[Russlenat]

SMB was surprised by Meralco's big run in the first quarter, but as usual, they managed to come back, and we are seeing a tie ball game now. This is a crucial game for both teams; it's game 3, and whoever takes the lead in the series will not feel much pressure going into game 4. So, I think this game is still going to be low scoring, and Meralco could win but would easily cover the handicap if they lose again. ..

And Meralco has taken the lead in the series with a victory tonight.

Newsome had a winning shot, that was a 3 point shot that gave them a good lead, and SMB is trying to respond with a shot from CJ but he miss badly. The series now looks very exciting, I didn't expect to see it this way, in fact this series could have been 3-0 if not for the heroic shot of Marcio in game 2.

They never failed to amaze us; games 1 to 3 were all very exciting. Again, the defense of Meralco was on display, and it was their consistency that made them win the game. The ball movement was pretty awesome, and maybe that's the reason why everyone was contributing.

JMF really got tired because he was getting rebounds, and things were not easy for him inside. If we look at the rebounding department, SMB got outrebounded by 7. It should be the other way, as SMB are bigger and JMF should be dominating the paint. What Meralco is doing is very quick rotations to defend the paint. Though the bigs of Meralco are in foul trouble, they were effective in limiting JMF again.

Top scorers for both teams:
Newsome: 26
CJ Perez: 18 with poor shooting (6/19)

[Fredomago]

SMB was surprised by Meralco's big run in the first quarter, but as usual, they managed to come back, and we are seeing a tie ball game now. This is a crucial game for both teams; it's game 3, and whoever takes the lead in the series will not feel much pressure going into game 4. So, I think this game is still going to be low scoring, and Meralco could win but would easily cover the handicap if they lose again. ..

And Meralco has taken the lead in the series with a victory tonight.

Newsome had a winning shot, that was a 3 point shot that gave them a good lead, and SMB is trying to respond with a shot from CJ but he miss badly. The series now looks very exciting, I didn't expect to see it this way, in fact this series could have been 3-0 if not for the heroic shot of Marcio in game 2.

Yeah, Meralco snatch the game against SMB and the way they manage to takeover seems that they really in the mission of earning that respect, good play and execution for Meralco on that last play while it's also a good call for SMB though CJ miised that shot, very close and crucial and at the end only one team will win.

Still far from the conclusion for this series, SMB can tie it up again or Meralco can take a 3-1 lead in their next encounter, a matter of good adjustments and how they will going to play their system.

Good luck mga Kabayan! enjoy watching the series!

[Distinctin]

SMB was surprised by Meralco's big run in the first quarter, but as usual, they managed to come back, and we are seeing a tie ball game now. This is a crucial game for both teams; it's game 3, and whoever takes the lead in the series will not feel much pressure going into game 4. So, I think this game is still going to be low scoring, and Meralco could win but would easily cover the handicap if they lose again. ..

And Meralco has taken the lead in the series with a victory tonight.

Newsome had a winning shot, that was a 3 point shot that gave them a good lead, and SMB is trying to respond with a shot from CJ but he miss badly. The series now looks very exciting, I didn't expect to see it this way, in fact this series could have been 3-0 if not for the heroic shot of Marcio in game 2.

Yeah, Meralco snatch the game against SMB and the way they manage to takeover seems that they really in the mission of earning that respect, good play and execution for Meralco on that last play while it's also a good call for SMB though CJ miised that shot, very close and crucial and at the end only one team will win.

Still far from the conclusion for this series, SMB can tie it up again or Meralco can take a 3-1 lead in their next encounter, a matter of good adjustments and how they will going to play their system.

I guess next time it will still be Meralco leading the series, but the next 2 games after that will be won by SMB to tie the series, which means we will see a Game 7 in the Finals. The NBA Finals have been boring so far since the Celtics have already a commanding lead of 2-0, so I'm hoping in this PBA Finals we will see a Game 7.

Good luck mga Kabayan! enjoy watching the series!

Sure thing, I enjoy watching and betting at the same time.

[Maslate]

You guys ready for game 4?

SMB is still at -5.5 despite losing 2 games in the last 3 games. I think Meralco will again easily cover the handicap or could even win again.

the last 3 games, although SMB won 1 game but they were not able to cover the spread, so I think there's no reason to go against the trend as it's all Meralco is the winning bet. Also, they have adjusted the total a bit, from 190 in the last 3 games now already at 187.5, so I think we are still gonna see an under in total here.

[Japinat]

You guys ready for game 4?

SMB is still at -5.5 despite losing 2 games in the last 3 games. I think Meralco will again easily cover the handicap or could even win again.

the last 3 games, although SMB won 1 game but they were not able to cover the spread, so I think there's no reason to go against the trend as it's all Meralco is the winning bet. Also, they have adjusted the total a bit, from 190 in the last 3 games now already at 187.5, so I think we are still gonna see an under in total here.

I agree with your prediction here... it's been 3 games and SMB hasn't dominate a game, so there's no reason to back them and take the high spread which is -5.5. The defense of the Meralco is still there, and they are healthy so they can continue to defend well. SMB seemed to be relying so much on CJ, and JMF aren't so effective in offense, so this all favor to Meralco. If we go back tot he regular season, SMB is dominating the paint and a good 3 point shooting team, but in the NBA finals, they struggled in that area. So good luck to us, if the line will move in favor of the SMB, then better for Meralco as the odds might increase as well.

[Fredomago]

You guys ready for game 4?

SMB is still at -5.5 despite losing 2 games in the last 3 games. I think Meralco will again easily cover the handicap or could even win again.

the last 3 games, although SMB won 1 game but they were not able to cover the spread, so I think there's no reason to go against the trend as it's all Meralco is the winning bet. Also, they have adjusted the total a bit, from 190 in the last 3 games now already at 187.5, so I think we are still gonna see an under in total here.

I agree with your prediction here... it's been 3 games and SMB hasn't dominate a game, so there's no reason to back them and take the high spread which is -5.5. The defense of the Meralco is still there, and they are healthy so they can continue to defend well. SMB seemed to be relying so much on CJ, and JMF aren't so effective in offense, so this all favor to Meralco. If we go back tot he regular season, SMB is dominating the paint and a good 3 point shooting team, but in the NBA finals, they struggled in that area. So good luck to us, if the line will move in favor of the SMB, then better for Meralco as the odds might increase as well.

They still got that handicap even Meralco already win twice but it's more on the gambler's analysis  and how they will play with the bookies, I guess it's another low scoring game as Meralco really play well with their defense, not unless SMB start bring TR7 back and adds up the offensive threat not sure but according to some social media post it's TR7 who choose not to play as he's still injured not sure if how true is that, but if ever that SMB will bring him in, the chance for JMF to catch that easy short jumpshot as TR7 can attract the defense and just drop that ball to JMF, something that I don't see with all those guards who are playing right now, they are more on trying to score, I'm expecting Cruz and TR7 if ever they both being use this coming game 4.

[Distinctin]

They still got that handicap even Meralco already win twice but it's more on the gambler's analysis  and how they will play with the bookies, I guess it's another low scoring game as Meralco really play well with their defense, not unless SMB start bring TR7 back and adds up the offensive threat not sure but according to some social media post it's TR7 who choose not to play as he's still injured not sure if how true is that, but if ever that SMB will bring him in, the chance for JMF to catch that easy short jumpshot as TR7 can attract the defense and just drop that ball to JMF, something that I don't see with all those guards who are playing right now, they are more on trying to score, I'm expecting Cruz and TR7 if ever they both being use this coming game 4.

The other players of SMB needs to step up, last time during their championship run, we've seen players like Cruz and Trollano who are making big contributions in the series. But here, it seems like they struggled a lot, especially J. Cruz who only scored 7 points last game from 2-10 shooting.

the 3 point shooting of SMB in game 3 was fine as they have 43%, which is high, but look at their attempts, they only had 72 while 84 for Meralco, so I guess this is another low scoring game especially for SMB. I think SMB also need to limit their turnovers, they had 15 last game.

[Fredomago]

They still got that handicap even Meralco already win twice but it's more on the gambler's analysis  and how they will play with the bookies, I guess it's another low scoring game as Meralco really play well with their defense, not unless SMB start bring TR7 back and adds up the offensive threat not sure but according to some social media post it's TR7 who choose not to play as he's still injured not sure if how true is that, but if ever that SMB will bring him in, the chance for JMF to catch that easy short jumpshot as TR7 can attract the defense and just drop that ball to JMF, something that I don't see with all those guards who are playing right now, they are more on trying to score, I'm expecting Cruz and TR7 if ever they both being use this coming game 4.

The other players of SMB needs to step up, last time during their championship run, we've seen players like Cruz and Trollano who are making big contributions in the series. But here, it seems like they struggled a lot, especially J. Cruz who only scored 7 points last game from 2-10 shooting.

the 3 point shooting of SMB in game 3 was fine as they have 43%, which is high, but look at their attempts, they only had 72 while 84 for Meralco, so I guess this is another low scoring game especially for SMB. I think SMB also need to limit their turnovers, they had 15 last game.

Yeah, that's the reason why I brought their names as I see their productions seems they are not in that same caliber as how they help the squad the last time they trip to the finals, they've been limited I'm not sure because of how Meralco played thier defense or becuase of that JMF design play that's why they are limited touching the ball, they need to be more aggressive here as they need to win to avoid that 3-1 Meralco leading the series.

I like to see them taking those outside shots not just from Lassiter and some from Perez but also from Cruz, Ross and whoever shooters who will play they need to contribute if they want to tie this series.

[Finestream]

I like to see them taking those outside shots not just from Lassiter and some from Perez but also from Cruz, Ross and whoever shooters who will play they need to contribute if they want to tie this series.

I think this is the time where SMB will have a dominant win. Though I don't like the last 3 games they played, I still bet on them hoping this game will boost their confidence and that means they'll be winning in double digit. This game will start in 5 minutes, get that beer ready and support our team.