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[JanpriX]

Pick for July 20, 2020 (MONDAY)
Game will start on 08:00 PM EST, Major League Soccer
Match:  Philadelphia Union - Orlando City SC

LOSS - PICK: TAKE the PHILADELPHIA UNION ML for 1 UNIT (2.85 ODDS).

Both teams are advancing out of this group. So it seems like they have nothing to play for. But the winner of the group gets a more beneficial seed in the knockout round. Also, it's not like these guys are tired or worn down; they've only played two matches in the last four months. I think they are going to play for a win and I just think that Philadelphia is the better team. There is too much value on both sides of this wager to pass up on.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[1715338060]

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[1715338060]

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[JanpriX]

MLB Futures Pick 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
Take Toronto Blue Jays Under 28.5 (2020 MLB Season Win Total)

We are playing the Toronto Blue Jays to win less than 29 games. Toronto is a mess now without a home stadium and that will lead to issues we seldom see in this sport. Throw in the fact they play in the AL East and I do not see many easy wins for them outside of Florida and Baltimore. They will not be .500 and thus we should be collecting with this bet as well.

[vella85]

Hello mate,

There will be a new platform launching soon that will enable people to sell their sports picks and I was thinking that maybe you would be interested in that. You can still of course post free picks here like you have been doing but as I have seen with some other guys on here, they also sell some picks for VIP's. Its just something to think about and once the platform is launched I'll let you know.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 21, 2020 (TUESDAY)
Game will start on 05:30 AM EST, Korean Baseball League
Match:  Samsung Lions - NC Dinos

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the OVER 9.5 RUNS for 5 UNITS (1.58 ODDS).

Take two bad pitchers, add in two strong lineups, and I think that this one sets up well for a high-scoring affair. Samsung has been tagging the ball lately. They ran into the Dan Straily buzzsaw on Sunday. But prior to that they had scored 98 run in their previous 15 games so far this month. That is an average of 6.53 runs per game. They only saw 10 or more runs in two of their six games last week. But prior to that they had 10 or more in seven of their previous eight games and 9 of their previous 13. So they have been an 'over' team. NC is the best team in the league in part because they have the best offense. They never need an excuse to put up runs. They have scored 105 runs in their last 17 games, good for 6.2 per game. So we have these two teams that combine to average around 13 runs per game. And the only reason we wouldn't expect more the same would be because I'm worried about the starting pitchers. I'm not. Samsung is going with Baek Jung-hyun, a 33-year-old KBO lifer that has a career ERA around 5.00. His ERA is 4.86 this season but he's actually been worse than that, mixing in nine unearned runs. So his true RA is around 6.33. He is coming off a surprisingly effective start, not allowing a run in 5.2 innings of work. But he allowed four runs in six innings in his first start against NC this year and he's given up four or more runs in half of his 10 starts. The Dinos are going with their weakest starter, Choi Sung-young. He also has a career 5.02 ERA and his ERA this season is 4.93. He has made six starts this year and give up at least four runs in half of them. He's also given up seven home runs in just 35 innings of work and he has just 16 walks to 15 strikeouts so he's not fooling anyone with his stuff. In fact, over the last two seasons he has just 77 strikeouts to 65 walks. So he basically just serves it up there and hopes that guys get themselves out. I don't think that's going to work against this Samsung lineup. Finally, the last time these two teams squared off Samsung actually won the series while scoring 21 runs in the three games. They combined to score 44 runs in the three games, including an 18-7 barn burner. I expect another high-scoring game here as both lineups should combine for around their averages and get us 12 or 13 runs.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.
*The tips below will not count to my stats here in this thread.

ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE
WIN - Take UNDER 3 GOALS between Aston Villa and Arsenal (3:15 p.m., Tuesday, July 21st)

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 21, 2020 (TUESDAY)
Game will start on 08:00 PM EST, Major League Soccer
Match:  Atlanta United FC - Columbus Crew

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the COLUMBUS CREW ML for 2 UNITS (2.13 ODDS).

There is an expectation that Atlanta is a top team in the MLS. They aren't. Not this year. This is not the same team that won the championship in 2018 and made it to the conference finals last season. Obviously they are not the same team without all-world striker Josef Martinez. But Atlanta is playing without six starters from the side that took the field last October in the conference championship. Atlanta has been shutout in both games in this tournament. They have looked terrible and they are on their way out. I think they know that and I don't think that they care. I think Atlanta United is looking forward to getting out of Orlando and getting back home. They have their bags packed and they will play like that here. Columbus has been rock solid in its two matches. They won both easily, pounding the same Cincinnati team that just beat Atlanta by the count of 4-0. They don't have a ton of motivation since they are guaranteed a spot in the next round. But I think they want to continue their run of strong play, and the chance to drive a stake through the heart of a conference rival is icing on the cake.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 22, 2020 (WEDNESDAY)
Game will start on 03:15 PM EST, English Premiere League
Match:  Chelsea - Liverpool

LOSS - PICK: TAKE the UNDER 3 GOALS for 2 UNITS (1.85 ODDS).

It is easy to look at two powerhouse teams, with loads of offensive talent, and assume that this match is going to be a goal fest or a shootout. However, when you have two teams of equal, top tier quality, the tendency is that they can neutralize each other and play a tighter, lower-scoring game. And that's been the case between these two Premier League powers. In their last 28 league matches, dating back to 2006, they have scored more than three goals just three times (10%) and they have scored exactly three goals five times. So in 20 of their last 28 league meetings (71%) they have gone 'under' this total. If we included all meetings between these two sides since 2006 that adds up to 45 matches. In those 45 meetings they have gone over three goals just eight times (17%) and they have scored exactly three goals nine times. So in 28 of 45 meetings (62%) they have played under this total. Liverpool has absolutely no motivation for this match. They won the title by a country mile and have taken a loss and a draw since then. Chelsea is still in a battle with several teams for a Top 4 finish and a spot in the Champions League. They can punch their ticket with a win here. I expect a sharply played game, but one with limited scoring opportunities. I'll play on 15 years of history here and the history says play 'under'.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 23, 2020 (THURSDAY)
Game will start on 05:30 AM EST, Korean Baseball League
Match:  NC Dinos - Samsung Lions

CANCELLED DUE TO WEATHER - PICK: TAKE the NC DINOS -1.5 RUNS for 4 UNITS (1.85 ODDS).

The Dinos won in extra innings Monday night so let's go right back to them today. They are the best team in the league for a reason, and they are going with one of their best starters today in Drew Rucinski. He has been dominating, posting a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 2.05 ERA in his 13 starts this season. He is finding his top form lately, allowing just two runs and 16 hits over his last four starts, good for a 0.69 ERA. He has won five straight starts and I don't see any reason he won't keep rolling.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[xPPx]

Fading Till UFC. 1BTC...

[JanpriX]

Hello mate,

There will be a new platform launching soon that will enable people to sell their sports picks and I was thinking that maybe you would be interested in that. You can still of course post free picks here like you have been doing but as I have seen with some other guys on here, they also sell some picks for VIP's. Its just something to think about and once the platform is launched I'll let you know.

Oh, thanks for informing me ahead of time. I'd be really interested in that platform and would like to try it out once it's available. Please let me know once it rolled out and I'd be sure create an account on it. 

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 23, 2020 (THURSDAY)
Game will start on 02:30 PM EST, Golf - 3M Open - 1st Round
Match:  Ben Martin - Sam Burns

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the SAM BURNS ML (1st round only) for 4 UNITS (1.75 ODDS).

I ran this matchup through my model and I believe there is tremendous Value on Burns in this first-round matchup. Burns' game suits this course well and we believe he has a big opening round to put him near the top of the leaderboard. Martin has been inconsistent of late and we don't see his game translating well at TPC Twin Cities.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 24, 2020 (FRIDAY)
Game will start on 05:30 AM EST, Korean Baseball League
Match:  NC Dinos - KT Wiz

LOSS - PICK: TAKE the NC DINOS -1.5 RUNS for 2 UNITS (1.99 ODDS).

Rainouts have affected teams the last two nights but the Dinos has a major edge in pitching tonight with Drew Rucinski on the mound. He is 9-1 on the season with a 2.05 E.R.A. The Dinos have beaten the Wiz in 7 of 9 games this season (1 draw). This should be well pitched by both sides but I see the Dinos winning by a score of around 6-2.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 23, 2020 (THURSDAY)
Game will start on 07:45 PM EST, NASCAR - SUPER START BATTERIES 400
Match:  Aric Almirola - Kurt Busch

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the ARIC ALMIROLA for 4 UNITS (1.80 ODDS).

He (Almirola) has a knack for drawing good positions. Pretty much everything went wrong for him on Sunday and he still finished higher than his opponent. He has a penalty, brake issues and pitted at the wrong time but still got it done. Expect more of the same on Thursday night.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Friday Baseball Bonanza 
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
WIN - Take Minnesota Twins over Chicago White Sox (8 p.m., Friday, July 24th)

I'm all over Minnesota here. I know that the White Sox have gotten a lot of hype coming into the season. But the Twins are the reigning division champions and they actually improved themselves this offseason, signing Josh Donaldson. No team in the Majors has as much home run pop as the Twins lineup and I think that they will get their cuts in against Lucas Giolito. Giolito was very solid last year. But the season before that he had a 6.13 ERA in 32 starts so he's no sure thing. I'm a big fan of Jose Berrios. He's got great stuff and he's pitched in big games. He has also absolutely dominated the White Sox, going 11-2 with a 2.40 ERA in his career against them.

WIN - Take Los Angeles Dodgers over San Francisco Giants (9:40 p.m., Friday, July 24th)

The Dodgers bombed the Giants last night. I see no reason why it won't be more of the same here tonight. The Giants are one of the four or five worst teams in baseball. They had their chance for a big upset on opening night. But then the Dodgers put their fist through San Fran's face with seven runs late and I think that momentum is going to carry over into today. The difference in quality in the lineups is stark. San Fran hasn't announced its starter but I'm expecting Jeff Samardzija. That guy is a meatball and I think he'll get tagged by the Dodgers here.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 24, 2020 (FRIDAY)
Game will start on 06:10 PM EST, Major League Baseball
Match:  Cincinnati Reds - Detroit Tigers

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the CINCINNATI REDS -1.5 RUNS for 2 UNITS (2.09 ODDS).

The Reds were one of the best pitching teams in the National League last season and made some nice offseason acquisitions to bolster their offense in hopes to make some noise in the National League Central this season. Sonny Gray was great for Cincinnati in his first season with them last year going 11-8 with a 2.87 ERA over 31 starts. Gray has had success against the Tigers in his previous starts and I think he can continue that against a Detroit team that is in rebuilding mode. Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas were brought in during the off season to bring some pop to the Reds lineup, and both are very familiar with the Tigers. Matthew Boyd will have the ball for Detroit tonight and I think he is going to be on the wrong end of this one. Take the Reds here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 24, 2020 (FRIDAY)
Game will start on 07:00 PM EST, Major League Baseball
Match:  Philadelphia Phillies - Miami Marlins

LOSS - PICK: TAKE the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1.5 RUNS for 2 UNITS (2.56 ODDS).

I am bullish on the Phillies this year. Joe Girardi is a proven winner and is a completely massive upgrade over loser Gabe Kapler, who had this team on the wrong track from Day 1 last season. Philadelphia also made one of the most underrated signings of the offseason when they grabbed Didi Gregorius. Again, he is a proven winner and just a baller. I think he's going to help stabilize a lineup that has a lot of talent but just isn't as cohesive. I also think that Aaron Nola is able to take a leap forward and ace everyone expects him to be. He is in his Age 27 season and I think he'll find the form he had in 2018 when he went 17-6 and posted a 2.37 ERA. Miami is Miami. They are fodder. This is one of the worst teams in baseball and nothing about Sandy Alcantera scares me. I think Philadelphia is going to bomb the Marlins all weekend, starting here.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 24, 2020 (FRIDAY)
Game will start on 08:30 PM EST, Soccer - MEXICO LIGA MX
Match:  Club Necaxa - Tigres UANL

WIN!!! - PICK: TAKE the UANL ML for 4 UNITS (1.94 ODDS).

UANL is one of the power teams in Liga MX. They have finished in the top six in every iteration of this league over the last three years. They also have a big advantage over Necaxa in that UANL has played four matches since the restart. They haven't played particularly well, taking two draws and one loss against one win. But that head start in finding their form should give them a big edge in this one.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[tokeweed]

Got any UFC picks for this weekend's event?  Let's compare notes.    I've been working on the UFC a lot more as I think there's more value to be made.  Football lines are a lot harder and more efficient from what I've seen.  I tend to do more parlays on football lately.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 25, 2020 (SATURDAY)
Game will start on 03:00 PM EST, WNBA
Match:  Phoenix Mercury - Los Angeles Sparks

LOSS - PICK: TAKE the PHOENIX MERCURY +3.5 POINTS for 2 UNITS (1.96 ODDS).

As per our selection on Phoenix to get the job done over Los Angeles, I like the Mercury team a hell of a lot more than I do the Sparks team. This Mercury team is one that gets Taurasi back and fully healthy and one that acquired a very good Skyler Diggins-Smith in the offseason to help compliment her. They also have Brittney Griner patrolling the pain and talented scorers like Shatori Walker-Kimbrough and Nia Coffey at their disposal. This is a team that, if the chemistry comes early, could be walking away with a top-seed and an easier path to a potential WNBA Finals. As for the Sparks, they were a solid squad last season but they will be missing a few key players as the season gets underway. The newly acquired Toliver from Washington has opted out, as has Chiney Ogwumike. The Sparks have an aging core group of players and very little rotational depth if the need arises due to foul trouble or injury. Phoenix will be ready for this game and they've also won three of the last five meetings between the two squads. The Mercury fare extremely well as an underdog as they are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a dog while the Sparks finished just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games last season and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.

[JanpriX]

UFC Fight Night 174  
*The leans below will not count to my stats here in this thread. Follow or fade, it's up to you!

WIN - Take Jesse Ronson over Nicolas Dalby (7:25p.m., Saturday, July 25th)

In the welterweight division, we have a matchup between Jesse Ronson (21-10) and Nicolas Dalby (18-3). Ronson and Dalby have something in common, in the fact that both were previously cut by the UFC, only to find their way back again after some decent performances on the regional scene. Ronson was a Canadian prospect, which the UFC had high hopes for, but it never really panned out, which can be seen by his 0-3 record in the organization. Unfortunately for him, all losses were by split decision! Ronson is not a bad fighter, and in fact does possess a fair bit of talent but seems to struggle the brighter the lights. Dalby on the other hand is not all that good but is extremely tough and seems to shine in difficult circumstances. Dalby is a little quicker and utilizes space and distance better than Ronson, but Ronson is more technical in his abilities and has the power advantage. Dalby looks good until he gets cracked, which seems to happen every single fight. We expect Dalby to walk forward and out-volume Ronson in the early going, but eventually some bigger shots should land from Ronson at which point will start to change the momentum of the fight and win over the judges. This will probably end up being a sloppy fight, which could go either way, and the current price of +220 is slightly absurd. We believe Dalby should probably be the favorite, but barely. We will happily take a shot on the Canadian who will look to pick up his first UFC victory in a must-win fight, for his career.

LOSS - Take Peter Sobotta over Alex Oliveira (8:40p.m., Saturday, July 25th)

In another welterweight bout, we will see Peter Sobotta (17-6) take on Alex "Cowboy" Oliveira (21-8). This is a fun fight. Cowboy brings it each time and has not been in a boring fight his entire career. Oliveira brings a ton of pressure from the start, and looks to kill his opponents, but that does make him an unpredictable, wild card. He leaves himself open to big power shots, and finds himself on the ground more often than he would like due to the crazy scramble, grappling exchanges he creates as he comes crashing in. One thing we should note is that Cowboy has been submitted 4 times in his MMA career, and he will have to mind his p's and q's when facing Peter Sobotta. Sobotta is an extremely dangerous fighter, and a tough stylistic matchup for Oliveira. He has a Black Belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Dean Lister and has 10 wins by submission. He has incredible technique on the mat and will surely hold the advantage in that department, and he potentially is even more dangerous off his back. Sobotta has been working sporadically over the years on his striking technique in Thailand and it is clearly showing signs of improvement! What was once a weakness, is now a somewhat decent addition to his game. There is no doubt over the course of 15 minutes, Oliveira will be the more dangerous striker, but it will not be as one sided as most think. Sobotta does not have the best entry wrestling game so we understand why he is the underdog here, but we also understand the fight IQ and wild style of Cowboy. We expect this to go to the mat at some point, and probably more than once, and Sobotta should be able to dominate. This feels more like a coin-flip, so we will take the value on Sobotta at the current market price of +150.

WIN - Take Paul Craig over Gadzhimurad Antigulov (9:10p.m., Saturday, July 25th)

In the light-heavyweight division we have a matchup between Paul Craig (12-4) and Gadzhimurad Antigulov (20-6). When looking at this fight on paper and from a statistical standpoint it seems like a coin flip, but after studying tape, some things become much clearer. Antigulov is fairly big for the division and always has a hard weight cut, and after looking good in his first two fights, the wear on those weight cuts is starting to become evident - This can be seen by his last two which he lost via knockout after significantly slowing down early in each fight. It is clear that his cardio and chin are questionable at best. Antigulov is a master in freestyle wrestling, and he will be looking to ground his opponent as quickly as possible, but against a fighter like Paul Craig, that could be a death sentence. Craig is a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu but seems to perform at black-belt level when in the octagon. In his 12 wins, 11 have come by way of submission, including the legendary last second triangle-choke submission he caught Ankalaev in after being dominated for all 3 rounds. That showed us he is always live to pull off anything at any given moment if you lose concentration for just one second. Antigulov is no slouch on the ground and seems to have decent top-game, but the main issue here will be his gas tank. Craig is far more durable and has a lot more heart. Antigulov has never made it out the 1st round in the UFC, and his cardio still looked awful in all of them. We have no idea who will win round 1, but as the fight wears on, it just feels like a matter of time before Craig lands a submission on the exhausted Antigulov, or simply pieces him up on the feet. We will side with the more determined, technical fighter here. Craig opened -105 at most books and we would have gone bigger at that number. There is still value at the current price, as we line this closer to -165 or so. We will just go slightly smaller.


LOSS - Take Darren Till over Robert Whittaker (11:10p.m., Saturday, July 25th)

In the main event of the evening, we have a middleweight title eliminator matchup between Darren Till (18-2) and former champion Robert Whittaker (20-5). First and foremost, there is no doubt that this will be an awesome fight! Till looked outstanding early in his UFC career, and was really on our radar before losing his title-fight against Tyron Woodley, in a bad way, to then being knocked-out cold in front of his home fans, at the hands of Jorge Masvidal. Till has since moved to Middleweight which we think was a great decision. It is incredible he was able to make 170 lbs. He is huge for that division, and in fact, is a big Middleweight! Regardless of the setbacks, he managed to out-point middleweight contender, Kelvin Gastlum in his debut at 185 lbs. It was a tentative performance, but it was needed for his confidence, after being badly hurt and losing his two previous bouts. It now seems his confidence is back from his interviews and sparring footage we have watched. There is no mistaking the incredible striking ability of Darren Till. He throws accurate, powerful punches with crisp precision. If he does not hurt you, he is able to out-point you, which can be seen by his win against undefeated kick-boxer point fighting expert, Stephen Thompson. Whittaker on the other hand is an aggressive striker that looks to throw looping, but technical bombs at a high rate. He has an unpredictable style, which involves a 'punches in bunches' leap forward approach. That worked out very well for him, and earned him the middleweight championship, but it also leaves him open to taking damage. His last 3 fights have taken some clear years off the career of Whittaker. He was involved in two wars against Yoel Romero, where he was dropped and hurt badly multiple times, and then looked seriously off against now champion, Israel Adesanya who knocked him out cold after dropping him earlier in the fight. Whittaker's chin is starting to seriously deteriorate, and while he has outstanding recovery, that is also starting to fall off. Whittaker is world class, but all the wars, illnesses and injuries look like that have really started to take their toll on Rob. We honestly believe that there are far more ways for till to win this fight. If Whittaker is unable to land the big shot and put till away, or stifle his confidence early, it could get ugly. Till stalks his opponents, is patient from the outside and can snipe a laser at any moment to put Whittaker away. We expect the damage to add up, and till emerge as a clear contender to Adesanya. Till should be a -140-favorite based on our handicapping, and we will take the value on him at plus money.

[JanpriX]

Pick for July 25, 2020 (SATURDAY)
Game will start on 10:40 PM EST, UFC Fight Night 174
Match:  Antonio Rogerio Nogueira - Mauricio Rua

LOSS - PICK: TAKE the ANTONIO NOGUEIRA ML for 1 UNIT (2.60 ODDS).

In the co-main event of the evening, we have the trilogy matchup of Brazilian legends, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (23-9) and Mauricio "Shogun" Rua (26-11). It is obvious that both these fighters' best years are behind them. Rua has taken a ton of damage over the course of his career, and Nogueira has announced this will be his last fight. What makes this fight interesting is that Rua won both of their previous fights, so it is a little odd that we are going to witness a 3rd fight considering there is no rubber match involved. Reading between the lines, it seems as though this was a fight that was requested by Nogueira before he finishes his career. This shows that he really wants this one back and will be coming with everything he has left to finish his career on the perfect end. Both have their issues, and both can be chinny, I mean - who could blame them, as they have a ton of fight years on them, but we actually think Nogueira is the fresher of the two, and has a little more to offer this time around. As they have aged, his boxing has remained a little crisper, and his distance management is also a little better. Rua is clearly showing less and less confidence in his hands as of late, which can be seen by his more grapple heavy approach, which would be a mistake against Nogueira. If this fight plays out on the feet we make it a coin-flip, which has clear value on Nog, and if Rua gets hit with multiple shots, and attempts to grapple as he has as of late, that will spell the end for him as well. +165 is tremendous value considering we know for a fact we will be getting a max effort here from the 'aged-better' fighter in an awfully close fight.

Best of luck and Grind On everyone.