[BET] Trump or not Trump 2020, eddie13 vs suchmoon

[TwitchySeal]

I was hoping, if I lost, that it would be clear enough for me to just pay up by now..
But I don't think it is, and shittily I think it might be a while yet..

Quite happy that Trump atleast BTFO the pollsters..

I was hoping for the same thing.  Look at us agreeing on something

It's definitely not over though, I'd settle for a 10% discount right now.  Offer good till midnight EST tonight.

[suchmoon]

Moving from the other thread:

Pretty sure there are some bitcoin services for that

I'm a bit concerned about random crypto bookies, I don't trust their decision logic.

So I did it in fiat on PredictIt, already up $100 since yesterday. Not sure if I should take it or let it ride...

Edit: this a bet on Biden winning Georgia.

[squatz1]

Moving from the other thread:

Pretty sure there are some bitcoin services for that

I'm a bit concerned about random crypto bookies, I don't trust their decision logic.

So I did it in fiat on PredictIt, already up $100 since yesterday. Not sure if I should take it or let it ride...

Edit: this a bet on Biden winning Georgia.

PolyMarket (the ETH) one is pretty good, or at least I've heard,haven't used it myself.

Fair on not liking random crypto bookies. Especially because the ones that are offering state by state stuff are going to be a bit more.... interesting, to say the least. Most of the reputable ones, like Stake.com (which is owned by PrimeDice) is only offering (or was only offering) betting on the Presidential race as a whole, not betting for a particular state.

I'm not a big fan of PredictIt due to the massive fees during usage. Pretty sure they take like 5% of all bets.

[suchmoon]

I'm not a big fan of PredictIt due to the massive fees during usage. Pretty sure they take like 5% of all bets.

They have fees on winnings (fair) and fees on withdrawals (sucks). But since I'm going to either bust or win +40% then the withdrawal fee won't matter much.

Edit: Biden ahead both in GA and PA. If Biden takes all states he's leading he'll get 306 electors... two more than Trump did in 2016. That's gotta hurt.

[proTECH77]

Joe Biden is in the straight way to white house. Many people are worry if Biden will do more than Trump during four years he spend in the office. Trump development will surely make him return back to compete his another four year. Trump always have the US citizens at heart.
I think despite the delay of the result of the US Trump will still win.

[TwitchySeal]

Joe Biden is in the straight way to white house. Many people are worry if Biden will do more than Trump during four years he spend in the office.

If he cleans up most of the mess left behind we'll be happy.

[JollyGood]

It does seem inevitable that after the waiting game is over Biden and Harris are going to the White House. It seems a little sad but not unexpected to see Trump clutching at straws knowing he has lost the election but is using legal means to prolong the outcome.

Biden will have very little time to get comfortable behind his desk at the oval office because he will be getting to work fixing the mess Trump left behind and making immediate attempts to repair damaged international relations with friends and allies that Trump is personally held responsible for doing in the eyes of many.

Joe Biden is in the straight way to white house. Many people are worry if Biden will do more than Trump during four years he spend in the office.

If he cleans up most of the mess left behind we'll be happy.

[LoyceV]

discussing the election itself is on topic.

Great I've been wondering for a while why they keep giving intermediate results while counting. Why's that?
It's as if they're counting how many more votes they have left to count, and then for each newly counted vote publish the new totals. Why don't they just wait until they're done counting, and publish only the final total?

It now seems like they're asking for attention for days, while they have no final data to publish.

[JollyGood]

Some news channels award the states before the full count has been completed according to the number of ballots counted and those remaining with a high probability the current loser will not be able to surmount a revival or comeback but other news channels operate in a different way. I have watched several news channels, one right now shows Biden on 264 and another shows him on 253 but both shows Trump on 214. It has been like that since yesterday without movement because the remaining states are too close to call right now as their counting draw to a close.

discussing the election itself is on topic.

Great I've been wondering for a while why they keep giving intermediate results while counting. Why's that?
It's as if they're counting how many more votes they have left to count, and then for each newly counted vote publish the new totals. Why don't they just wait until they're done counting, and publish only the final total?

It now seems like they're asking for attention for days, while they have no final data to publish.

[suchmoon]

discussing the election itself is on topic.

Great I've been wondering for a while why they keep giving intermediate results while counting. Why's that?
It's as if they're counting how many more votes they have left to count, and then for each newly counted vote publish the new totals. Why don't they just wait until they're done counting, and publish only the final total?

It now seems like they're asking for attention for days, while they have no final data to publish.

Transparency I guess. Partial results in most cases (~45 states out of 50) are good enough to tell the outcome early in the process.

There is nothing inherently wrong with partial results except that the Twitter generation has grown accustomed to instant gratification to the point that they can't wait a few days for results on something that doesn't even take effect until mid-January. And people can't math or are just plain stupid so they think there must be cheating if it doesn't go the way they want.

[TwitchySeal]

discussing the election itself is on topic.

Great I've been wondering for a while why they keep giving intermediate results while counting. Why's that?
It's as if they're counting how many more votes they have left to count, and then for each newly counted vote publish the new totals. Why don't they just wait until they're done counting, and publish only the final total?

It now seems like they're asking for attention for days, while they have no final data to publish.

You have to consider there are hundreds or even thousands of polling locations in each state, they have to open hundreds of thousands or millions of mail in votes, if it's close they have to verify thousands of individual provisional ballots (often times having to reach out to the voter to verify something), and in most cases they aren't even allowed to begin the process until election day (even though people have been voting for months).

They release whatever info they can when they can because literally the entire world is wants to know and keeping anything secret is a bad look.  There's probably some National Security reason as well, the longer we go without knowing who the president will be, the more exposed to foreign threats...I'm just making that up, but it makes sense.

[PrimeNumber7]

WI and MI have both been called for Biden.

AZ has been called for Biden as well, though it seems like this call may have been too early. News reports are saying that with the amount of absentee ballots Trump could still pull the state back. - If Biden ends up winning this, then NV can decide the fate of this election.

NV has not been called, it's close right now as they're counting the absentee ballots. I think Trump will pull through and win this.

I agree with the analysis about AZ and NV regarding the tourism industry and why they'll be a bit happier to turn to Trump regarding opening the economy.

GA is going to be tight, Pennsylvania as well. Friday will probably be when we hear about these.

A state being "called" only means that an entity has said that based on the available (almost always incomplete) information (despite what the NY Times wants you to believe), a candidate has a high probability of winning. Ultimately, in order for a candidate to win an election, all the legal votes need to be counted, and the secretary of state needs to certify the results. There is the possibility of litigation that may change the outcome of elections in states in which "all" the votes have been counted. For example, there are alligations that software caused 6,000 votes in MI cast for Trump to count for Biden, and this software is used in over 45 counties in MI.

There are still votes outstanding in AZ and NV, and the margins are slim enough in both states that it is probably inappropriate for any outlet to "call" either of these races.

Remember that Trump does not actually need to win 270 electoral college votes to win the election. All he needs to do is prevent Biden from getting 270 by December 23. If no one has 270 electoral college votes by Dec 23, the new Congress will vote on who becomes the next President, which each state's delegation gets one vote, and Republicans are favored in this regard. Even Mitt Romney is on Trump's side currently, so I would not expect Republicans to be voting for Biden in a congressional election for president.

[nullius]

I was hoping, if I lost, that it would be clear enough for me to just pay up by now..
But I don't think it is, and shittily I think it might be a while yet..

Same here.  I have been wanting to settle my bet with theymos, and then take a real forum break to catch up on some urgent IRL stuff.  Famous last words.

So, eddie...  Maybe America is a primitive banana republic where people can’t count?  ;-)

National sovereignty for wildlings? I mean really, you must be redpilled on IQ no?

One may imagine that someday soon, perhaps the Chinese may be so magnanimous as to fix this for you.  The difference that you would notice would be a change from an inefficient Communist government that pretends to be Capitalist, to an efficient Capitalist government that pretends to be Communist. :-/

Quite happy that Trump atleast BTFO the pollsters..

Indeed, at least it is fun to see the liberals get antsy.  I am confident that Trump will trump the odds to win my bet for me.  —And if he doesn’t, then I will happily pay 0.01 BTC to the NCLA, then just not give a fuck about who your president is.  Meanwhile, I am bringing popcorn to watch the liberals squirm.  Trump stuff always makes for an exciting show, one way or another.


PrimeNumber7, eddie13, thanks for your thoughtful replies.  I began writing responses to those two posts, but did not yet finish them.

For eddie, here is a part (transplanted to WO where my thought started on that—n.b. that alas, I am not actually following WO now; at this point, I must be at least a hundred pages behind).

philipma1957, you simply don’t remember that over a month ago, I already answered your same essential proposition in WO.  And accusing me of not remembering history is not worth more than “LOL”.

[eddie13]

there are alligations that software caused 6,000 votes in MI cast for Trump to count for Biden, and this software is used in over 45 counties in MI.

I started a thread on that as soon as I noticed.. Antrim county Michigan fakes Biden votes???!!

Not only Michigan either..
https://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/288421333



Including Maricopa County..

Could get interesting..

[TwitchySeal]

there are alligations that software caused 6,000 votes in MI cast for Trump to count for Biden, and this software is used in over 45 counties in MI.

I started a thread on that as soon as I noticed.. Antrim county Michigan fakes Biden votes???!!

Not only Michigan either..
https://boards.4chan.org/pol/thread/288421333



Including Maricopa County..

Could get interesting..

In response to the false claims made by Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, the Michigan Department of State issues the following statements of fact:

Michigan’s elections were conducted fairly, effectively and transparently and are an accurate reflection of the will of Michigan voters.
 
The erroneous reporting of unofficial results from Antrim county was a result of accidental error on the part of the Antrim County Clerk. The equipment and software did not malfunction and all ballots were properly tabulated. However, the clerk accidentally did not update the software used to collect voting machine data and report unofficial results.
 
Like many counties in Michigan, Antrim County uses the Dominion Voting Systems election management system and voting machines (ballot tabulators.) The county receives programming support from Election Source. Tabulators are programmed to scan hand marked, paper ballots. When machines are finished scanning the ballots, the paper ballots are retained and a totals tape showing the number of votes for each candidate in each race is printed from the machine.
 
In order to report unofficial results, county clerks use election management system software to combine the electronic totals from tabulators and submit a report of unofficial results. Because the clerk did not update software, even though the tabulators counted all the ballots correctly, those accurate results were not combined properly when the clerk reported unofficial results.
 
The correct results always were and continue to be reflected on the tabulator totals tape and on the ballots themselves. Even if the error in the reported unofficial results had not been quickly noticed, it would have been identified during the county canvass. Boards of County Canvassers, which are composed of 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans, review the printed totals tape from each tabulator during the canvass to verify the reported vote totals are correct.
 
The software did not cause a misallocation of votes; it was a result of user human error. Even when human error occurs, it is caught during county canvasses.
 
It is also completely false that the county had to or will have to hand count all their ballots. The ballots were properly counted by the tabulators. The county had to review the printed tabulator results from each precinct, not each individual ballot.
 
As with other unofficial results reporting errors, this was an honest mistake and did not affect any actual vote totals. Election clerks work extremely hard and do their work with integrity. They are human beings, and sometimes make mistakes. However, there are many checks and balances that ensure mistakes can be caught and corrected.
 
As Detroit officials have stated, hundreds of challengers from both parties were inside their absent voter counting board all afternoon and evening. And even after some left, there were always challengers from both parties in the room. Dozens of reporters were in the room as well. Further, some windows were covered to stop those outside from filming the people and private information in the counting board, while other windows were left uncovered to ensure additional transparency.
 
As was stated by Chris Thomas, who as a contractor for the Detroit City Clerk’s Office served as an advisor on the execution of this election and led challenger relations, and who is the former Michigan Director of Elections, who served under both republican and democrat Secretaries of State during his 40-year-tenure with the Bureau of Elections, no ballots were backdated. Rather, a clerical error was made when some ballot envelopes were received in Detroit satellite offices. Although employees stamped a date of receipt on the envelopes, an employee failed to complete the transaction for receiving the ballot by saving that date in the Qualified Voter File. Therefore, at the absent voter counting board, after discussion with Republican challengers who chose not to challenge the process, staff was instructed to enter that date stamped on the envelope ensuring that no voters were disenfranchised by the clerical error.
https://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127--544676--,00.html

[eddie13]

......

So it was the Clerk's fault, "human error", and not the software's fault, because the software was not "updated" by the clerk, so the software was wrong, but it wasn't the software's fault..

Funny the software should need "updated" just a day or 2 before the election for it to not be totally incorrect, or, for it not to somehow completely skew all race results unsuspiciously to the left..

BTW.. Believing a michigan.gov site under the reign of heil Whitmer about a false vote count? lol no..

[actmyname]

apply occam's razor
& repeat

[nullius]

... The equipment and software did not malfunction and all ballots were properly tabulated. However, the clerk accidentally did not update the software used to collect voting machine data and report unofficial results.
 
Like many counties in Michigan, Antrim County uses the Dominion Voting Systems election management system and voting machines (ballot tabulators.) The county receives programming support from Election Source. Tabulators are programmed to ...
 
... The software did not cause a misallocation of votes; it was a result of user human error. Even when human error occurs, it is caught during county canvasses. ...
https://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127--544676--,00.html

So it was the Clerk's fault, "human error", and not the software's fault, because the software was not "updated" by the clerk, so the software was wrong, but it wasn't the software's fault..

Funny the software should need "updated" just a day or 2 before the election for it to not be totally incorrect, or, for it not to somehow completely skew all race results unsuspiciously to the left..

Anybody who imagines that voting be important (as I don’t) should dig through the archives of the RISKS Digest for decades of discussion about the RISKS of voting machines, voting machine software, human error, etc., etc.  Voting systems have been a longtime major focus there.  I also expect that RISKS will probably carry discussion of what is now happening in the United States; you may want to contribute, if you have a mind for computer security.  (PrimeNumber7 particularly may like this, if he’s not already a secret subscriber.  Unfortunately, I myself have not followed it for some few years.)

RISKS Digest: Forum on Risks to the Public in Computers and Related Systems:
https://catless.ncl.ac.uk/Risks/

Oh, the RISKS of being catless! 😿

RISKS is an old-school computer security thing, published since 1985 and known to anybody who is serious these matters.  It is sufficiently “notable” that it has a lamentably inadequate Wikipedia page:

It is a moderated forum concerned with the security and safety of computers, software, and technological systems. Security, and risk, here are taken broadly; RISKS is concerned not merely with so-called security holes in software, but with unintended consequences and hazards stemming from the design (or lack thereof) of automated systems. Other recurring subjects include cryptography and the effects of technically ill-considered public policies.

Highlighting is thereby added to subjects that should be of particular interest to denizens of the Bitcoin Forum.  I should catch up, and see what they’ve been saying about cryptocurrency—I would guess, probably tearing up an awful lot of RISKy bad code.  Because idiots want their dancing pigs!

My previous mention of RISKS on this forum:

On the other hand, I could say that people/users can be blame too for this inexplicable continuous hacking & bad news. Why?
Simply because most of them don't want projects that are slow on production. They only think about the "hype" without realizing that there is a proper flow for conducting new features. They passively pushes the developers/coders to do an early releases that have greater chances for bugs and errors. This is a very common thing on some projects here in bctalk 

This is what RISKS-subscriber types used to call “dancing pigs”.  People will not pay for correct, reliable, secure things.  People will not wait for them, either.  They want their dancing pigs, and they want them now!

[Gyfts]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/us/politics/stacey-abrams-georgia.html

Read this article, probably behind paywall but I'll summarize -- Stacey Abrams is responsible for Georgia turning blue this election cycle.

She deserves praise from democrats, black vote turned out and cost Trump the state.

Now, the unfortunate thing is I don't think these people will turn out for the Georgia runoff election which means good chance Republicans secure a solid 52-48 senate majority. Just about the only silver lining this election cycle. That, and probably the house victories.

[TwitchySeal]

(I haven't verified this or anything)



(don't get any ideas eddie)