Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[Branko]

Ohh what a clever idea, think so far this one takes the prize, following that logic instead of just turning the pipelines off, Russia should just start blowing all of them up, you know that'll really get the gas prices going up. You should've been more careful disclosing such ingenious ideas, now Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Iran/Venezuela might find out just how lucrative it can be to blow up their own most valuable pipelines!

 

You're economic genius, and should apply as advisor for oil industry...unless suchmoon already copyrighted the idea

[1714262495]

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[paxmao]

...

And of course

Russia ‘endangers the whole world’ with strike on nuclear power plant in Ukraine

https://nypost.com/2022/09/19/russia-endangers-the-whole-world-with-strike-on-nuclear-power-plant-in-ukraine/

Logic being because that's just what Orcs do? They take over a nuclear plant then shoot at it so they're forced to shut it down before winter starts


And just in case readers have any resemblance of brain cells or critical thinking left:

Biden, in contrast, told reporters at the White House that “if Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, there will be no longer Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”
Asked how he could be sure, since it would be officials in Berlin, not Washington, who would make the decision, Biden told a journalist: “I promise you, we’ll be able to do it.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/07/ukraine-russia-scholz-biden-macron/

And now of course

Nord Stream pipeline blasts were likely from explosions, not earthquakes, seismologist says

https://www.foxnews.com/world/nord-stream-pipeline-blasts-likely-explosions-not-earthquakes-seismologist-says

Can't wait for coverage of Orcs blowing up their own pipelines which they stopped themselves. Logic being that's just what Orcs do? After stopping the gas flow, they blow up the pipeline to make sure they loose all of leverage over Germany for the winter

At least elected member of the European parliament and former Polish Defense Minister says how it is, before he's "shown the way" and claims hacks or a joke

U.S. Blew Up Russian Gas Pipelines Nord Stream 1 & 2, Says Former Polish Defense Minister

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2022/09/27/us-blew-up-russian-gas-pipelines-nord-stream-1--2-says-former-polish-defense-minister

Wondering how low will EUR drop now

Interesting theory I reckon, the US being the one blowing up the gas pipe to ensure that Germany does not use it. However it does not make sense, since they anyway have Nord Stream I which is already shut off. If Germany / EU would want RF gas, they can still get it. Following the argument, the NS I goes through Ukraine, but Ukraine would not interrupt these due to risk of EU becoming less friendly.

 Blowing the Nord Stream II looks like the RF army doing to kind of "make a point" on regards to EU aid and aligns well with a country that is under a Junta.

In my view, this is an act of war. The Orc army could have chosen any other target right? A bridge in France, a factory in Germany... Why do you think they would hit NS II? The answer is very simple: it is not in NATO territory and does not grant a NATO mobilisation which would end any expectation of even a technical "victory" in the invasion.

Now, what does YOUR critical thinking tell you about this?

Already loving these!  

You seem to have some misunderstandings about Nord Streams. Nord Sream 1 does NOT go through Ukraine. Both Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pretty much go side by side from Russia to Germany


There are 2 pipes that make up NS1 and 2 pipes in NS2 for a total of 4 pipes. Both pipes of NS1 and one pipe of NS2 are confirmed to have been blown up. So far seems like one pipe in NS2 is holding pressure but we don't know the extent of damage to it. Regardless, estimates to fix range from few months (meaning after winter when it's useless to Germany/RU) to never.
..

My mistake certainly, I did not use the right name (you get one merit for correct my facts and one more for presenting a funny hypothesis, that is my usual policy), but in fact we are agreeing that there is a path through Ukraine. If you like picture, see that big 140 BCM line in the middle of Ukraine below? Well, that is a gas pipe with a capacity of 140BCM. Nord Stream is 55 BCM at maximum capacity.




So, still the argument that you are failing to address remains:

Short term, Germany is no more fucked or dependent on Ukraine that it was before, since the NS were pretty much closed from the RF end. The Nord Stream was mainly a RF doing, because Ukraine asked for payment for the pass through their territory, paid with German money. Old news.

Long term:

- Ukraine can be either integrated in Europe (EU or other treaty), in which case will favour the passage of gas. If you try to fuck with Germany in the EU, you are likely to run into trouble. There are many examples including Greece, Poland (which is close to getting internal sanctions) and Hungary.
- Or (much less likely) occupied by RF who does not need it to close or open the valve anyway.

So curiously, the long term effect is only the loss of a valuable infrastructure which damages the German investors in the project but not much more, that is why the retaliation hypothesis makes perfect sense. Also an infrastructure that is precisely in non-NATO territory.

Now, why would the US sabotage the pipeline?
- To fuck like you say his main ally in Europe? (stupid)
- To force Germany to be dependent of Ukraine (not impossible, but still fucking your allies).

The second one makes a 25% sense let's say, but the risk of an international backslash against US in case of being found clearly exceeds any veeeery long shot "advantage".

Bottomline, as it is now, it looks like international terrorism from Adolf Putin's Psychos and the Chief Orcs.

[suchmoon]

Ohh what a clever idea, think so far this one takes the prize, following that logic instead of just turning the pipelines off, Russia should just start blowing all of them up, you know that'll really get the gas prices going up. You should've been more careful disclosing such ingenious ideas, now Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Iran/Venezuela might find out just how lucrative it can be to blow up their own most valuable pipelines!

Uhm... make sure you're sitting down for this one: Russia had already turned the pipeline off. They've done it multiple times for ridiculous made up reasons. They've exhausted the blackmail potential on that one. Closing it off for a few weeks apparently just makes Germany work even harder on arranging alternative supplies, instead of wanting to cave (stop Ukraine weapon supplies, open NS2 etc), who could have possibly guessed.

Blowing it up though creates a few new potential scenarios, like threats to other pipelines etc. Again, this is Russian propaganda staple, what with apocalyptic "Europe freezing" scenarios etc. I'm not sure why you're now doing 180 from the gas blackmail and claim Russia couldn't have possibly done it. I guess trying to drive a wedge between the US and Europe is the new propaganda pivot. Good luck with that. Nothing unites more than a common enemy, especially a deranged lunatic like Putin.

[be.open]

Ohh what a clever idea, think so far this one takes the prize, following that logic instead of just turning the pipelines off, Russia should just start blowing all of them up, you know that'll really get the gas prices going up. You should've been more careful disclosing such ingenious ideas, now Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Iran/Venezuela might find out just how lucrative it can be to blow up their own most valuable pipelines!

Uhm... make sure you're sitting down for this one: Russia had already turned the pipeline off. They've done it multiple times for ridiculous made up reasons. They've exhausted the blackmail potential on that one. Closing it off for a few weeks apparently just makes Germany work even harder on arranging alternative supplies, instead of wanting to cave (stop Ukraine weapon supplies, open NS2 etc), who could have possibly guessed.

Blowing it up though creates a few new potential scenarios, like threats to other pipelines etc. Again, this is Russian propaganda staple, what with apocalyptic "Europe freezing" scenarios etc. I'm not sure why you're now doing 180 from the gas blackmail and claim Russia couldn't have possibly done it. I guess trying to drive a wedge between the US and Europe is the new propaganda pivot. Good luck with that. Nothing unites more than a common enemy, especially a deranged lunatic like Putin.

If we ignore the propaganda crap and take a sober look at things, it suddenly turns out that the United States is the main beneficiary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the European Union is its main victim.

The US and Europe are not only NATO allies, but also competitors. By fomenting and sustaining the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States strengthens its economy and weakens the economy of the European Union. The US military-industrial complex receives large orders, and the European military-industrial complex is suffering from an energy crisis and cannot turn around at full strength. After the sabotage on the Nord Stream, the German industry can be confidently put an end to. No, Europe will not freeze this winter, but it will be largely deindustrialized. And next year, in addition to the current problems, Germany will have a problem with millions of unemployed from the stopped energy-intensive industry - metallurgy, chemistry, cars, etc. Germany from the locomotive of the European Union will turn into its brake. The European Union is fucked.

[BADecker]

^^^ The mad US dog is simply doing what has to be done to maintain the banking system.

Russia uses money that is gold backed and has real value.

US money is based on banking system lies and broken contracts.

The reason for the strength of the US banking system is that people believed the lies and made it strong. As the truth comes out, the banking system will fight to maintain its strength, while all Russia wants to do is trade freely with the rest of the world.

[DaRude]

...

And of course

Russia ‘endangers the whole world’ with strike on nuclear power plant in Ukraine

https://nypost.com/2022/09/19/russia-endangers-the-whole-world-with-strike-on-nuclear-power-plant-in-ukraine/

Logic being because that's just what Orcs do? They take over a nuclear plant then shoot at it so they're forced to shut it down before winter starts


And just in case readers have any resemblance of brain cells or critical thinking left:

Biden, in contrast, told reporters at the White House that “if Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, there will be no longer Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it.”
Asked how he could be sure, since it would be officials in Berlin, not Washington, who would make the decision, Biden told a journalist: “I promise you, we’ll be able to do it.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/07/ukraine-russia-scholz-biden-macron/

And now of course

Nord Stream pipeline blasts were likely from explosions, not earthquakes, seismologist says

https://www.foxnews.com/world/nord-stream-pipeline-blasts-likely-explosions-not-earthquakes-seismologist-says

Can't wait for coverage of Orcs blowing up their own pipelines which they stopped themselves. Logic being that's just what Orcs do? After stopping the gas flow, they blow up the pipeline to make sure they loose all of leverage over Germany for the winter

At least elected member of the European parliament and former Polish Defense Minister says how it is, before he's "shown the way" and claims hacks or a joke

U.S. Blew Up Russian Gas Pipelines Nord Stream 1 & 2, Says Former Polish Defense Minister

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2022/09/27/us-blew-up-russian-gas-pipelines-nord-stream-1--2-says-former-polish-defense-minister

Wondering how low will EUR drop now

Interesting theory I reckon, the US being the one blowing up the gas pipe to ensure that Germany does not use it. However it does not make sense, since they anyway have Nord Stream I which is already shut off. If Germany / EU would want RF gas, they can still get it. Following the argument, the NS I goes through Ukraine, but Ukraine would not interrupt these due to risk of EU becoming less friendly.

 Blowing the Nord Stream II looks like the RF army doing to kind of "make a point" on regards to EU aid and aligns well with a country that is under a Junta.

In my view, this is an act of war. The Orc army could have chosen any other target right? A bridge in France, a factory in Germany... Why do you think they would hit NS II? The answer is very simple: it is not in NATO territory and does not grant a NATO mobilisation which would end any expectation of even a technical "victory" in the invasion.

Now, what does YOUR critical thinking tell you about this?

Already loving these!  

You seem to have some misunderstandings about Nord Streams. Nord Sream 1 does NOT go through Ukraine. Both Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pretty much go side by side from Russia to Germany


There are 2 pipes that make up NS1 and 2 pipes in NS2 for a total of 4 pipes. Both pipes of NS1 and one pipe of NS2 are confirmed to have been blown up. So far seems like one pipe in NS2 is holding pressure but we don't know the extent of damage to it. Regardless, estimates to fix range from few months (meaning after winter when it's useless to Germany/RU) to never.
..

My mistake certainly, I did not use the right name (you get one merit for correct my facts and one more for presenting a funny hypothesis, that is my usual policy), but in fact we are agreeing that there is a path through Ukraine. If you like picture, see that big 140 BCM line in the middle of Ukraine below? Well, that is a gas pipe with a capacity of 140BCM. Nord Stream is 55 BCM at maximum capacity.




So, still the argument that you are failing to address remains:

Short term, Germany is no more fucked or dependent on Ukraine that it was before, since the NS were pretty much closed from the RF end. The Nord Stream was mainly a RF doing, because Ukraine asked for payment for the pass through their territory, paid with German money. Old news.

Long term:

- Ukraine can be either integrated in Europe (EU or other treaty), in which case will favour the passage of gas. If you try to fuck with Germany in the EU, you are likely to run into trouble. There are many examples including Greece, Poland (which is close to getting internal sanctions) and Hungary.
- Or (much less likely) occupied by RF who does not need it to close or open the valve anyway.

So curiously, the long term effect is only the loss of a valuable infrastructure which damages the German investors in the project but not much more, that is why the retaliation hypothesis makes perfect sense. Also an infrastructure that is precisely in non-NATO territory.

Now, why would the US sabotage the pipeline?
- To fuck like you say his main ally in Europe? (stupid)
- To force Germany to be dependent of Ukraine (not impossible, but still fucking your allies).

The second one makes a 25% sense let's say, but the risk of an international backslash against US in case of being found clearly exceeds any veeeery long shot "advantage".

Bottomline, as it is now, it looks like international terrorism from Adolf Putin's Psychos and the Chief Orcs.

I know all who are commenting here have already picked their truths by virtue of pledging allegiance to one side or the other, but just in case someone is reading here that's truly just trying to make some sense out of this all:  
Let's cover leverage first. Surely we must all agree that the point of any sanction/limitation is to apply pressure in order to achieve desired results. By definition, both sides loose from sanctions/limitations, as if trade/agreement wasn't beneficial for both sides it wouldn't have happened in the first place. The big question with sanctions is who looses more! When you tell your kids that no one is going to the movies until they finish their vegetables, the point is that you incentivize them to eat their vegetables, of course you can easily achieve not going to the movies by blowing up your own car but that was never your goal in the first place!

Germany wants Russian gas, Russia want to get paid. Timing of gas payments are not critical to Russia at all (they don't care if they get paid in summer or winter), where timing of gas deliveries is extremely critical to Germany (that's why all gas pipeline maintenance is done during the summer months)! No one cares about gas usage this very day, German gas consumption in September is just above the minimal in August, and Germany has plenty in reserves to cover short term, so Russian doesn't have any leverage for this moment. The leverage comes in play at peaks during Dec-Mar. That's when Russian gas is of critical importance, social unrest and monetary pressures will be at their all time high. Any clown that tries to convince anyone that Russia blew up their own pipeline in September when demand is just starting to climb is just trying to make an imbeciles out of their listeners.



To address your point, whether intentionally or not, you're confusing the RU pumping in gas to fill German reserves that could be used later at critical time vs actually sending gas during that critical time! Just because Russia didn't want Germany to build up their reserves with RU gas during non-critical warmer months and turned off the gas, clearly doesn't mean that RU for some idiotic reason decided to remove any and all advantage it has for the coming most critical winter season where its leverage over Germany would've been at its peak!

Long term, there's absolutely no benefit to Russia to make German gas deliveries dependent on other EU states, think Germany can even consider Brexit? Gerxit? Gexit? when all their gas deliveries go though EU?

I mean Biden straight up spelled out that he'll stop the pipeline, member of the European parliament thanked USA in the post about blown pipeline, and now you try to question why US would do it?? US presidents public intentions are not good enough for you?

Ohh what a clever idea, think so far this one takes the prize, following that logic instead of just turning the pipelines off, Russia should just start blowing all of them up, you know that'll really get the gas prices going up. You should've been more careful disclosing such ingenious ideas, now Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Iran/Venezuela might find out just how lucrative it can be to blow up their own most valuable pipelines!

Uhm... make sure you're sitting down for this one: Russia had already turned the pipeline off. They've done it multiple times for ridiculous made up reasons. They've exhausted the blackmail potential on that one. Closing it off for a few weeks apparently just makes Germany work even harder on arranging alternative supplies, instead of wanting to cave (stop Ukraine weapon supplies, open NS2 etc), who could have possibly guessed.

Blowing it up though creates a few new potential scenarios, like threats to other pipelines etc. Again, this is Russian propaganda staple, what with apocalyptic "Europe freezing" scenarios etc. I'm not sure why you're now doing 180 from the gas blackmail and claim Russia couldn't have possibly done it. I guess trying to drive a wedge between the US and Europe is the new propaganda pivot. Good luck with that. Nothing unites more than a common enemy, especially a deranged lunatic like Putin.

Yep just because you claim that all blackmail potential has been exhausted (during the third lowest demand month) we don't have any critical thinking and just totally believe you!
(26 September 2022) Germans call for Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline opening now that there's nothing to open tell me again how that's a benefit to Russia? I'm not even talking about hundreds of millions of m^2 of gas Russia lost there

[suchmoon]

Yep just because you claim that all blackmail potential has been exhausted (during the third lowest demand month) we don't have any critical thinking and just totally believe you!
(26 September 2022) Germans call for Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline opening now that there's nothing to open tell me again how that's a benefit to Russia? I'm not even talking about hundreds of millions of m^2 of gas Russia lost there

NS2 was dead already. "Germans call for [...] opening" is bullshit, a few people protesting won't make that happen.

Let's say Putin decided to shut NS1 off in January. Would that change Germany's policies towards Ukraine or Russia? There is no indication that it would. That's what I mean by exhausted blackmail potential.

As for lost gas and whatnot... you're assuming that Putin is a rational actor, which he clearly is not. If he cared about Russia's economy he wouldn't have invaded Ukraine, or would have retreated when the crushing sanctions became evident. He will happily run the country into the ground to feed his imperial ego. Blowing up a pipeline, or like Russian propagandists now propose - blowing up gas tankers, underwater fiber cables, etc - to harm the "enemy" is small potatoes compared to the overall destructiveness of the regime, so your feigned outrage as to why we would even think that Russia could do this makes no sense.

[BADecker]

Yep just because you claim that all blackmail potential has been exhausted (during the third lowest demand month) we don't have any critical thinking and just totally believe you!
(26 September 2022) Germans call for Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline opening now that there's nothing to open tell me again how that's a benefit to Russia? I'm not even talking about hundreds of millions of m^2 of gas Russia lost there

NS2 was dead already. "Germans call for [...] opening" is bullshit, a few people protesting won't make that happen.

Let's say Putin decided to shut NS1 off in January. Would that change Germany's policies towards Ukraine or Russia? There is no indication that it would. That's what I mean by exhausted blackmail potential.

As for lost gas and whatnot... you're assuming that Putin is a rational actor, which he clearly is not. If he cared about Russia's economy he wouldn't have invaded Ukraine, or would have retreated when the crushing sanctions became evident. He will happily run the country into the ground to feed his imperial ego. Blowing up a pipeline, or like Russian propagandists now propose - blowing up gas tankers, underwater fiber cables, etc - to harm the "enemy" is small potatoes compared to the overall destructiveness of the regime, so your feigned outrage as to why we would even think that Russia could do this makes no sense.

So far Putin doesn't have to be much of a rational actor. Everything that has happened since the US/Ukraine puppet takeover has only made it easier for Russia to advance and become richer... starting with the sanctions, of course. And it all is pushing towards a Russia-China alliance, by accident(?), of course.

Just think what a Russia-China alliance would do... the country with the largest landmass getting together with the country with the biggest population... and all of them in the same basic neighborhood of the world, already.

[Branko]

Yep just because you claim that all blackmail potential has been exhausted (during the third lowest demand month) we don't have any critical thinking and just totally believe you!
(26 September 2022) Germans call for Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline opening now that there's nothing to open tell me again how that's a benefit to Russia? I'm not even talking about hundreds of millions of m^2 of gas Russia lost there

NS2 was dead already. "Germans call for [...] opening" is bullshit, a few people protesting won't make that happen.

Let's say Putin decided to shut NS1 off in January. Would that change Germany's policies towards Ukraine or Russia? There is no indication that it would. That's what I mean by exhausted blackmail potential.

As for lost gas and whatnot... you're assuming that Putin is a rational actor, which he clearly is not. If he cared about Russia's economy he wouldn't have invaded Ukraine, or would have retreated when the crushing sanctions became evident. He will happily run the country into the ground to feed his imperial ego. Blowing up a pipeline, or like Russian propagandists now propose - blowing up gas tankers, underwater fiber cables, etc - to harm the "enemy" is small potatoes compared to the overall destructiveness of the regime, so your feigned outrage as to why we would even think that Russia could do this makes no sense.

So far Putin doesn't have to be much of a rational actor. Everything that has happened since the US/Ukraine puppet takeover has only made it easier for Russia to advance and become richer... starting with the sanctions, of course. And it all is pushing towards a Russia-China alliance, by accident(?), of course.

Just think what a Russia-China alliance would do... the country with the largest landmass getting together with the country with the biggest population... and all of them in the same basic neighborhood of the world, already.

Putin  lost a lot of valuable time trying to appease West...alliance with China and India is much better choice

[DaRude]

Yep just because you claim that all blackmail potential has been exhausted (during the third lowest demand month) we don't have any critical thinking and just totally believe you!
(26 September 2022) Germans call for Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline opening now that there's nothing to open tell me again how that's a benefit to Russia? I'm not even talking about hundreds of millions of m^2 of gas Russia lost there

NS2 was dead already. "Germans call for [...] opening" is bullshit, a few people protesting won't make that happen.

Let's say Putin decided to shut NS1 off in January. Would that change Germany's policies towards Ukraine or Russia? There is no indication that it would. That's what I mean by exhausted blackmail potential.

As for lost gas and whatnot... you're assuming that Putin is a rational actor, which he clearly is not. If he cared about Russia's economy he wouldn't have invaded Ukraine, or would have retreated when the crushing sanctions became evident. He will happily run the country into the ground to feed his imperial ego. Blowing up a pipeline, or like Russian propagandists now propose - blowing up gas tankers, underwater fiber cables, etc - to harm the "enemy" is small potatoes compared to the overall destructiveness of the regime, so your feigned outrage as to why we would even think that Russia could do this makes no sense.

"no indication that it would"   You know the easiest way to figure out when someone is pushing propaganda or just making things up? Just replace the subject to something from the other side and see if such claim can still be applied to the other side.
We can almost get unlimited shit slinger generator to confuse dumb followers or masses without any critical thinking, or just create a low effort bot

Let's give it a try:

Putin = Biden/Ursula von der Leyen
shut NS1 off = any sanction against Russia


Let's say Putin Biden decided to shut NS1 off put more sanction on RU banks in January. Would that change Germany's Russias policies towards Ukraine or Russia USA? There is no indication that it would. That's what I mean by exhausted blackmail potential.
Let's say Putin Ursula decided to shut NS1 off cap prices on RU gas in January. Would that change Germany's Russias policies towards Ukraine or Russia EU? There is no indication that it would. That's what I mean by exhausted blackmail potential.
...

[suchmoon]

Just replace the subject to something from the other side and see if such claim can still be applied to the other side.

We've seen all kinds of whataboutism in this thread and none of it has made any sense so far. Neither does this.

Nor does it make sense for you to be trying so hard to prove that Russia has blackmail potential. I mean of all things... this is important?

[malcovi2]

The progress of Ukraine army recovering their stolen territory is astonishing. This is why Putin can only do is use nuclear threats because he doesnt have the technology to counter the HIMARS.

[BADecker]

^^^ So it seems. The US is pushing this into a nuclear war. Nobody wins with all-out nukes. Why is the US doing this?

[malcovi2]

^^^ So it seems. The US is pushing this into a nuclear war. Nobody wins with all-out nukes. Why is the US doing this?

Its all part of Putin's plan, he is playing 6d chess.

[paxmao]

Ohh what a clever idea, think so far this one takes the prize, following that logic instead of just turning the pipelines off, Russia should just start blowing all of them up, you know that'll really get the gas prices going up. You should've been more careful disclosing such ingenious ideas, now Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Iran/Venezuela might find out just how lucrative it can be to blow up their own most valuable pipelines!

Uhm... make sure you're sitting down for this one: Russia had already turned the pipeline off. They've done it multiple times for ridiculous made up reasons. They've exhausted the blackmail potential on that one. Closing it off for a few weeks apparently just makes Germany work even harder on arranging alternative supplies, instead of wanting to cave (stop Ukraine weapon supplies, open NS2 etc), who could have possibly guessed.

Blowing it up though creates a few new potential scenarios, like threats to other pipelines etc. Again, this is Russian propaganda staple, what with apocalyptic "Europe freezing" scenarios etc. I'm not sure why you're now doing 180 from the gas blackmail and claim Russia couldn't have possibly done it. I guess trying to drive a wedge between the US and Europe is the new propaganda pivot. Good luck with that. Nothing unites more than a common enemy, especially a deranged lunatic like Putin.

If we ignore the propaganda crap and take a sober look at things, it suddenly turns out that the United States is the main beneficiary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the European Union is its main victim.

The US and Europe are not only NATO allies, but also competitors. By fomenting and sustaining the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States strengthens its economy and weakens the economy of the European Union. The US military-industrial complex receives large orders, and the European military-industrial complex is suffering from an energy crisis and cannot turn around at full strength. After the sabotage on the Nord Stream, the German industry can be confidently put an end to. No, Europe will not freeze this winter, but it will be largely deindustrialized. And next year, in addition to the current problems, Germany will have a problem with millions of unemployed from the stopped energy-intensive industry - metallurgy, chemistry, cars, etc. Germany from the locomotive of the European Union will turn into its brake. The European Union is fucked.

If you ignore the propaganda crap, you will have no reason to exist.

I can see that you finally realised what I have been saying over and over since months ago:  Russia and Europe have never been winner in any war in Europe. The ones benefiting from this one are Saudis, China, US...  Note: Certainly not the RF, it is not only coming diplomatically and politically weaker, but also fucking its economy for the long term.

 In the war of 1914, Europe lost world dominance, in WW II, USA emerged as the superpower is today and now thanks to the Psychos of the RF Russia is bleeding people and has no expectative of growth whatsoever for the next decade and Europe will have ... a bump in the road until they unlink from RF gas.

Again, I mentioned a while ago that, thanks to Adolf Putin and the Psycos in the RF army:

- EU has more debt and has to undergo an energy transformation.
- RF has extended its border with NATO by thousands of kilometres and has driven two neutral countries into the NATO.
- Has been proven as an unreliable supplier.
- Has been sanctioned and is unlikely to ever recover its stance in the world.
- Has lost the technological and professional elites that are needed for the progress of a country.

In essence, has lost everything that makes a country prosper and be regarded as a partner. Did the US intend this? Of course. Did Adolf Putin acted in the best way to stop it? You tell me genius.

...


Putin  lost a lot of valuable time trying to appease West...alliance with China and India is much better choice

I think you have lived for too long in a country that let's you speak freely. I urge you to apply for RF citizenship - with your previous military experience you will have the chance to fully enjoy the advantages of an authoritarian regime in the front line, like many of the young unready and unwilling recruited soldiers.

...

So curiously, the long term effect is only the loss of a valuable infrastructure which damages the German investors in the project but not much more, that is why the retaliation hypothesis makes perfect sense. Also an infrastructure that is precisely in non-NATO territory.

Now, why would the US sabotage the pipeline?
- To fuck like you say his main ally in Europe? (stupid)
- To force Germany to be dependent of Ukraine (not impossible, but still fucking your allies).

The second one makes a 25% sense let's say, but the risk of an international backslash against US in case of being found clearly exceeds any veeeery long shot "advantage".

Bottomline, as it is now, it looks like international terrorism from Adolf Putin's Psychos and the Chief Orcs.

I know all who are commenting here have already picked their truths by virtue of pledging allegiance to one side or the other, but just in case someone is reading here that's truly just trying to make some sense out of this all:  
Let's cover leverage first. Surely we must all agree that the point of any sanction/limitation is to apply pressure in order to achieve desired results. By definition, both sides loose from sanctions/limitations, as if trade/agreement wasn't beneficial for both sides it wouldn't have happened in the first place. The big question with sanctions is who looses more! When you tell your kids that no one is going to the movies until they finish their vegetables, the point is that you incentivize them to eat their vegetables, of course you can easily achieve not going to the movies by blowing up your own car but that was never your goal in the first place!

Germany wants Russian gas, Russia want to get paid. Timing of gas payments are not critical to Russia at all (they don't care if they get paid in summer or winter), where timing of gas deliveries is extremely critical to Germany (that's why all gas pipeline maintenance is done during the summer months)! No one cares about gas usage this very day, German gas consumption in September is just above the minimal in August, and Germany has plenty in reserves to cover short term, so Russian doesn't have any leverage for this moment. The leverage comes in play at peaks during Dec-Mar. That's when Russian gas is of critical importance, social unrest and monetary pressures will be at their all time high. Any clown that tries to convince anyone that Russia blew up their own pipeline in September when demand is just starting to climb is just trying to make an imbeciles out of their listeners.



To address your point, whether intentionally or not, you're confusing the RU pumping in gas to fill German reserves that could be used later at critical time vs actually sending gas during that critical time! Just because Russia didn't want Germany to build up their reserves with RU gas during non-critical warmer months and turned off the gas, clearly doesn't mean that RU for some idiotic reason decided to remove any and all advantage it has for the coming most critical winter season where its leverage over Germany would've been at its peak!

Long term, there's absolutely no benefit to Russia to make German gas deliveries dependent on other EU states, think Germany can even consider Brexit? Gerxit? Gexit? when all their gas deliveries go though EU?

I mean Biden straight up spelled out that he'll stop the pipeline, member of the European parliament thanked USA in the post about blown pipeline, and now you try to question why US would do it?? US presidents public intentions are not good enough for you?

...

Mostly irrelevant, it does not matter when or how the reserves are used or filled. The fact is that RF shuts the valve and it matters little if the NS is operational or not in the short term and there are still several paths for the gas to fill the reserves if there was a political will, which is not the case.

There are several things in you post that are beyond reality (e.g. a Grexit), stating that the NS I & II are "Russia property",... I cannot even comment on those.

And now,

The RF is not acting in a rational manner as you or I would interpret it. Their prime objective is to act like they always act: twisting arms, threatening, intimidating and terrorising... having an international stance as "though" as Adolf Putin riding a horse half naked. They do not understand anything but retaliation and these attacks look to me like retaliation from miles away. Again, away from NATO territory, so it cannot be interpreted as an attack on a member country.

Again, the hypothesis of the US blowing up European infrastructures is pretty much senseless, as they already have Europe dependent on them for military and economic reasons and, if discovered, it would be such a radical change in relations for the worse that is simply not worth it.

Too many leaks in the pipeline of your "critical thinking".

[Branko]

...


Putin  lost a lot of valuable time trying to appease West...alliance with China and India is much better choice

I think you have lived for too long in a country that let's you speak freely. I urge you to apply for RF citizenship - with your previous military experience you will have the chance to fully enjoy the advantages of an authoritarian regime in the front line, like many of the young unready and unwilling recruited soldiers.

We can't speek freely...noone can. We only differ about WHAT you can speak freely.

https://slobodnadalmacija.hr/vijesti/hrvatska/marko-franciskovic-skoro-je-godinu-dana-u-pritvoru-uskoro-se-odlucuje-o-njegovoj-sudbini-a-odvjetnik-tvrdi-optuzili-su-ga-za-terorizam-jer-tako-tretiraju-slobodu-govora-1224272

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Assange

[LTU_btc]

30th September: Lyman joins Russian Federation
1st October: Lyman leaves Russian federation.
Seems that they didn't liked to be part of Russia. And nobody cares about results of fake referendums and Putin rhetoric
BTW, Ukrainians lready went for appointment in local office of DPR head Denis Pushilin Penis Dushilin, but unfortunately he wasn't here. Well, maybe next time.
https://t.me/truexanewsua/61669

[decodx]

We can't speek freely...noone can. We only differ about WHAT you can speak freely.

We all have the right to express ourselves freely. And you are doing so right now in this forum. However, every man's freedom ends where another man's freedom begins.
Freedom of speech does not include invoking violence and terrorism.

[TwitchySeal]

30th September: Lyman joins Russian Federation
1st October: Lyman leaves Russian federation.
Seems that they didn't liked to be part of Russia. And nobody cares about results of fake referendums and Putin rhetoric
BTW, Ukrainians lready went for appointment in local office of DPR head Denis Pushilin Penis Dushilin, but unfortunately he wasn't here. Well, maybe next time.
https://t.me/truexanewsua/61669

Can't be good for morale to retreat from a city you just "annexed" the day before.

That's not usually how annexing works.

Also now, in Putins alternate reality, Russia is now being occupied by Nazis.  How long can he "allow" that to happen before even the most brainwashed (whatever it is they call boomer generation in Russia) start to realize reality is much different than they previously believed?

[be.open]

30th September: Lyman joins Russian Federation
1st October: Lyman leaves Russian federation.
Seems that they didn't liked to be part of Russia. And nobody cares about results of fake referendums and Putin rhetoric
BTW, Ukrainians lready went for appointment in local office of DPR head Denis Pushilin Penis Dushilin, but unfortunately he wasn't here. Well, maybe next time.
https://t.me/truexanewsua/61669

Can't be good for morale to retreat from a city you just "annexed" the day before.

That's not usually how annexing works.

Also now, in Putins alternate reality, Russia is now being occupied by Nazis.  How long can he "allow" that to happen before even the most brainwashed (whatever it is they call boomer generation in Russia) start to realize reality is much different than they previously believed?

The capture of Lyman is a Pyrrhic victory for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Two weeks of unsuccessful attempts to close the boiler, huge losses of manpower and armored vehicles, the weakening of the Soledar direction due to the transfer of reserves and the general loss of pace of the Kharkov counteroffensive. And on the nose is winter, for which Ukraine is not at all ready, soon the leaves will fall from the trees, Russia will begin to receive fresh reserves from the mobilized. But for now, rejoice - Lyman is yours.