2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[Hispo]

~
The town next to me had their swans eaten out of their community pond. The swans had been living and breeding there for decades. This was about 2 years ago in Arizona, so I am 100% positive that animals are being eaten by immigrants. I don’t know how bad it has become, but it isn’t imaginary. Maybe not worthy of a political talking point, but it is real.

Pets! Trump claimed illegal immigrants are entireing houses and yards and stealing dogs and cats for food!
Do you know how many Americans have been convicted of eating pets, real Americans?
Because a guy like Armin Meiwes existed does this mean Germans are cannibals?

Also, some of you really miss the point, do you realize the situation of the people who have to resort to such things? Doesn't sound to me like guys drainign the federal budget with their expenses  

To be honest, of an ilegal inmigrants entered the home of a person in the United States and whether this was a problem how widespread as the media wants us to believe it is, at this point there would be at least a handful of undocumented immigrant shot dead or wounded by house onwers who happened to be pro-second amendment and pro stand-your-land policies.
So far, I have not seen news (at least in the mainstream media) talking about inmigrants getting shot, so I would not give some credit to most of the reports of such incidents.
Though, one cannot help but to think how Trump looked like in front of the most of the people in the United States, while he was ranting about people eating pets and how his crowd sizes are the huge and Kamala having to alledgedly pay people to show up to her rallies. He sounded kind of like a madman, while Harris kept her cool most of the time.

Does not matter at all whether one likes Trump more or less than Kamala Harris, the fact is he took her baits and he lost his composure in the end.
Adding to the fact she had a fairly good debate from the beginning, it seems the superstar Taylor Swift has officially endorsed Kamala. Will have any effect on the result? Probably not, but since we are talking about a razor thin margin, each factor can make a difference.

[STT]

Instead of the fear and shame, it'd be better if either party was ready to point out we should never let people starve like that so that it could ever become a problem.    I heard neither candidate make that super basic point and promise to provide basic humanity to another human hence my impression politics is ego and money to most is not ever far wrong.

They are saying Harris won but it wasnt by a large amount imo, its not like a resounding victory like it possibly could have been for her.   Trump wont do another debate and I got zero surprise on that, not sure he really wanted to do this one.  Biden was an easy target for him I guess and he probably is cursing that lost advantage every day.   The best way to win is to let your opponent lose it in their own way, Harris was throwing down those virtual banana skins in that particular way as if was Mario Kart and Trump ran into every one of them.    

Does it all matter I'm really not sure it does, it has to be an obvious point to really gain consensus, alter votes and turn the tide.  Thats why both sides focus on swing states where its the rarity that it can go either way, both candidates seemed kinda empty in their promises to me.   Situation yet to develop, I'll side with a Harris win for the moment unless I can see a change progress.

[alani123]

It's interesting to see the aftermath of Trump performing the way he did in the debate.

In terms of the odds, Kamala is the new favorite in every bookie. Trump is now in denial saying people think he won the debate and polls show that, but clearly this is a false statement.
Here's an interesting infographic about the debate:

Source: https://redd.it/1ff3qfr

Trump had every last word in the debate, yet managed to bring up bad arguments nearly every time.

On a positive note from Trump, in the last few days he performs well in the battleground state of Georgia:


This all goes to show that we're still in for a very tight race and neither team should get comfortable.

[tbct_mt2]

It's interesting to see the aftermath of Trump performing the way he did in the debate.

In terms of the odds, Kamala is the new favorite in every bookie. Trump is now in denial saying people think he won the debate and polls show that, but clearly this is a false statement.
Here's an interesting infographic about the debate:

Trump had every last word in the debate, yet managed to bring up bad arguments nearly every time.

On a positive note from Trump, in the last few days he performs well in the battleground state of Georgia:

This all goes to show that we're still in for a very tight race and neither team should get comfortable.

If bookmakers are created to help majority of gamblers to win, you can trust their odds and figures now.

But think about it, if bookmakers are not created to help majority of gamblers to win, if you do opposite to what you see now, you can become the minority won gamblers.

First, it is about behavior of bookmakers and second I can say, if you watch the full debate, you can see Kamala Harris only says like a bot with what we all knew about her and through the 1-hour debate, she did not convey anything new information to US. citizens on what she will do if she gets elected in November. I mean she failed to show off her plans, even concept of her plans were not sneak peeked through the important debate. That's reason why she wanted to avoid a debate directly with Trump but under pressure, she had to do it and failed.

[nullama]

~snip~
If bookmakers are created to help majority of gamblers to win, you can trust their odds and figures now.

But think about it, if bookmakers are not created to help majority of gamblers to win, if you do opposite to what you see now, you can become the minority won gamblers.

First, it is about behavior of bookmakers and second I can say, if you watch the full debate, you can see Kamala Harris only says like a bot with what we all knew about her and through the 1-hour debate, she did not convey anything new information to US. citizens on what she will do if she gets elected in November. I mean she failed to show off her plans, even concept of her plans were not sneak peeked through the important debate. That's reason why she wanted to avoid a debate directly with Trump but under pressure, she had to do it and failed.

Maybe I'm seeing this in a wrong way, but I think there are more than only two ways of doing this. So, you can't really just "do the opposite to what you see" as there are more than only two possible things to do.

I think in terms of the debate, many people will just interpret it to fit whatever they previously had in their minds, so I don't think it added any new information at all.

People will just look at those things almost like just pure entertainment. It is not like enacting a new bill or law, etc, which actually has some consequences. A debate in the end is just a show.

[Webetcoins]

To think that there are republicans who actually think that PETS are being stolen and eaten is getting to a point where it's not funny anymore and it's actually a seriously considered mental illness. But, it's on brand with republican views, they probably fear eating at pizza joints anymore due to fear of being considered a felon now lol.

All jokes aside, I think it's clear that we are not going to see any republican care about trump making wild claims, they will fit the shoe somehow, as long as their guy wins, they don't care who their guy is, that's how you build a republican party.

Democrats are not like that, you can see plenty of democrats disliking both Biden and kamala, they are only voting because they hate trump, unlike republicans who make trump look like he is the second coming of Jesus. That difference is the reason why I would prefer democrats to rule that nation. To be fair, I am not American, so why do I even care is beyond me, I still care, I just don't know the real reason why, I have no benefit or loss in either of them winning.

If Trump wins, nothing in my life would change, maybe there would be some better jokes to laugh at, if Kamala wins nothing changes, it would still be same me, same life. How do I know? I lived 8 years of Obama, 4 years of Trump and 4 years of Biden, and nothing in my life changed, not even a single thing.

[Fiatless]

To think that there are republicans who actually think that PETS are being stolen and eaten is getting to a point where it's not funny anymore and it's actually a seriously considered mental illness. But, it's on brand with republican views, they probably fear eating at pizza joints anymore due to fear of being considered a felon now lol.

This is a baseless accusation that Republicans have not proved to be correct. This is not the first time such a thing has been said about immigrants to make them look bad in society.
https://apnews.com/article/haitians-food-pets-false-stereotypes-e857fcc1ca18c77d1c890ec5e41f4f65

Trump wins, nothing in my life would change, maybe there would be some better jokes to laugh at, if Kamala wins nothing changes, it would still be same me, same life. How do I know? I lived 8 years of Obama, 4 years of Trump and 4 years of Biden, and nothing in my life changed, not even a single thing.

I also thought that the US elections weren't my business until Obama attacked and destabilized Libya. This caused an inflow of armed militias into my country causing a rise in criminal activities. I felt the impact of US foreign policy when the price of bread skyrocketed because of the handling of Russia Ukraine war. The attack of Libya, Iraq, and Gaza destabilized oil and gas supply, leading to an increase in the price of goods and services.

[el kaka22]

RCP average for odds became 51-48 for the bet, I guess that small difference is some third candidate or something if there is one, I am not sure but there could be some libertarian candidate or green candidate whatever, all those could be just one point. In the end, Kamala Harris looks like 3 points ahead, and I think it is getting to a point where Trump is now afraid to go against Kamala on a debate. She wanted another one, and he feared and backed out.

One thing I will say negative about Kamala, she is afraid to do it on Fox News because she knows it will be unfair, and we all know it will be unfair, thinking Fox would have a fair debate is so silly that it's like believing tooth fairy exists when you are 40 years old. But that doesn't mean ABC was fair, ABC wasn't fair neither and Trump knew it and he still did it, while Kamala is wildly, immeasurably better candidate than Trump, she still doesn't have the courage that Trump has on platform picking, it's that much clear.

[Poker Player]

Trump is now in denial saying people think he won the debate and polls show that, but clearly this is a false statement.

Not only that, he seems to have pooped his pants, as big and cocky as he is, and now says he won't debate Kamala again.

As much as he is claiming to have won the debate, if he does not want to debate again it is because he knows he has more to lose than to win in that debate. He probably now regrets smashing Biden in the first one.

[LUCKMCFLY]

We need to remember that we are going to see this in a week or so, then we will have the idea who won the debate and how much Taylor swift helped them. If they can do fine then we are going to end up with a good result, we should probably wait and see what these poll companies will share.

I have actually seen a lot of different opinions from a lot of people , some say that Trump won the debate, others say that Kamala won, there are things that I don't understand very well about Americans, what is more effective, a debate or polls? Will Americans be more convinced by the arguments that politicians give there or not ? Immigrants obviously didn't like what Trump said , and well I have no idea if they do such a thing, but even so , Americans are the ones who decide, and with which candidate they can identify.

[trendcoin]

Trump and Kamala had a debate recently. Kamala's team asked Trump for a second debate after the debate, but he refused. The general consensus is that Kamala did better, but I don't think she can sway the undecided voters. To be honest, I haven't watched the debate yet, but I know that Trump has the ability to shift the ground of the debate with populist rhetoric. It's hard for me to know who will win, but I want Trump to win because maybe then US foreign policy will be less expansionist...

[satscraper]

Trump and Kamala had a debate recently. Kamala's team asked Trump for a second debate after the debate, but he refused. The general consensus is that Kamala did better, but I don't think she can sway the undecided voters. To be honest, I haven't watched the debate yet, but I know that Trump has the ability to shift the ground of the debate with populist rhetoric. It's hard for me to know who will win, but I want Trump to win because maybe then US foreign policy will be less expansionist...

Kamala is an experienced debater thus her win in this debate is not surprised me. More noticeable is that  Taylor Swift urged her fans ^{(BTW, almost 300 millions followers on Instagram)} to vote for Kamala, thus  the Trump's  chances  dropped  to an all-time low. I wonder whether she made a bet,  like me,  gambling  on Kamala with $1000. I think that Taylor Swift  could risk more, even $ 1000 000 is not a money for her.

[stompix]

I wonder whether she made a bet,  like me,  gambling  on Kamala with $1000. I think that Taylor Swift  could risk more, even $ 1000 000 is not a money for her.

Tylor Swift is worth 1.3 billion, even if she would bet 1 million right now on Kmala she would earn $900 000, she makes 14 million on average per show after expenses and taxes, if her fans find out she bets or that she is into gambling she would lose more than this by order of magnitude, what would be the point of it? Ruining her career for pennies?

As much as he is claiming to have won the debate, if he does not want to debate again it is because he knows he has more to lose than to win in that debate. He probably now regrets smashing Biden in the first one.

I said it a few times, the only way Trump is winning would be for the Democrats to have the worst candidate they could think of, and luckily for Trump Kmala is not that far, Shapiro or Pete Buttigieg would have made this a no competition while Nikki Haley would have moped the floor with Kmala in this debate.

But well, one way or another stupidity wins sometimes.

Kamala has eased to 1.83

the debate alongside a poll in PA with her taking the lead might see Trump drop to 2.25, so if anyone takes a bet now it's the time, if it goes further it will be because his chances are dwindling even more on more bad news, so this would be the sweet spot.

[Hispo]

We need to remember that we are going to see this in a week or so, then we will have the idea who won the debate and how much Taylor swift helped them. If they can do fine then we are going to end up with a good result, we should probably wait and see what these poll companies will share.

I have actually seen a lot of different opinions from a lot of people , some say that Trump won the debate, others say that Kamala won, there are things that I don't understand very well about Americans, what is more effective, a debate or polls? Will Americans be more convinced by the arguments that politicians give there or not ? Immigrants obviously didn't like what Trump said , and well I have no idea if they do such a thing, but even so , Americans are the ones who decide, and with which candidate they can identify.

I am not from the United States, but I have some friends over there. The understanding I have on this topic is debates generally dominate over poll numbers, polls numbers are a reflection on what the general public is supposed to be thinking (in theory) and that perception can be changed more or less depending on what the candidate has to say during a debate.
Also, if I was you I would not give much credit to poll numbers whatsoever, remember back several months ago, when polls showed there was supposed to be a red wave in those elections and it turns out it did not happen, republicans did not take over the house of representative and the Senate as polls pointed it was going to happen.
So, to me polls numbers are mostly meaningless in this unprecedented period on time in the United States.

Even as polls seems to have turn in favor of Kamala, in the same manner betting markets have, we should not consider those signals to be definitive.
I am expecting the very last week before placing my bet and see whether will have an October surprise this year, as people in the USA call it.

[Wakate]

Trump and Kamala had a debate recently. Kamala's team asked Trump for a second debate after the debate, but he refused. The general consensus is that Kamala did better, but I don't think she can sway the undecided voters. To be honest, I haven't watched the debate yet, but I know that Trump has the ability to shift the ground of the debate with populist rhetoric. It's hard for me to know who will win, but I want Trump to win because maybe then US foreign policy will be less expansionist...

Kamala is an experienced debater thus her win in this debate is not surprised me. More noticeable is that  Taylor Swift urged her fans ^{(BTW, almost 300 millions followers on Instagram)} to vote for Kamala, thus  the Trump's  chances  dropped  to an all-time low. I wonder whether she made a bet,  like me,  gambling  on Kamala with $1000. I think that Taylor Swift  could risk more, even $ 1000 000 is not a money for her.

I watched the debate and I don't think Harris actually win Donald Trump I'm the debate. The debate was quite interesting although I couldn't watch it to the end but I think Donald Trump has higher chances of winning this election. This election could be manipulated, and if that happens then Trump might not get enough votes to win this election. What ever happens after this election, I'll over look it because we could see more females voting for Harris because she's a woman of lies being used by the president. I would rather go for a thousand dollars bet on Trump multiple times than Harris with intention to create unbearable inflation in the future.

[bbc.reporter]

You are correct on surveys and polls, however on prediction markets, you are mistaken, I reckon. The participants in the prediction markets are betting real money and they have their desire to win from this bet. If to choose between the polls or the prediction market as a guide on how this election might conclude, it might be better to choose the percentages of the prediction markets.

On depending on them completely, who is doing this? They only guidance on where presently are each of these candidates on their chance of victory heheheeh.

It all comes down to the human size factor. All of these polls, surveys, betting markets etc only focus on a small sample size which is why they are meant for reference only. If the sample size was big, this would be a completely different conversation.

Also, there are many people out there who completely depend on these statistics like fools thinking they are 100% accurate. This is why many of them were stunned when Clinton lost against Trump.

I very much agree. This is also certainly similar for prediction markets. If the total amount of bets is small, this would not give a very accurate reference on what is the reality of each of the candidates' ratings. However, it appears that the total amount of bets are reaching a size that might give everyone a very close reference on each of the candidate's ratings?



Polymarket approaches $1 billion in bets for 2024 presidential election winner

The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket accumulated a nearly $900 million bet for the winner of the United States 2024 presidential election.

U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris leads the way with an estimated 50% chance of winning and a bet surpassing $127 million, according to the platform. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump comes in a close second at 49% winning odds and a nearly $144 million bet.

Read in full https://www.theblock.co/post/316455/polymarket-approaches-1-billion-in-bets-for-2024-presidential-election-winner

[TravelMug]

Trump and Kamala had a debate recently. Kamala's team asked Trump for a second debate after the debate, but he refused. The general consensus is that Kamala did better, but I don't think she can sway the undecided voters. To be honest, I haven't watched the debate yet, but I know that Trump has the ability to shift the ground of the debate with populist rhetoric. It's hard for me to know who will win, but I want Trump to win because maybe then US foreign policy will be less expansionist...

I thought that it was Trump who is asking for a second debate as they know that they have been defeated on the first one? So if the consensus is that Kamala did better, then why ask for a rematch when she won already?

Yeah, he can shift but not this time, against a experience debater in Kamala that's why we feel that Trump did lose in the debate, thus his winning percentage dropping and Kamala is back on the top. Trump failed though to include his geo-policy, and that's why we see him losing here. Maybe if there is a second debate, Trump might improved with his usual personal attacks and rhetoric.

[dzungmobile]

I thought that it was Trump who is asking for a second debate as they know that they have been defeated on the first one? So if the consensus is that Kamala did better, then why ask for a rematch when she won already?

The flow of their debate organization is as follows:

Trump asked for debates. Kamala refused or ignored many times.
Trump asked for debates with first on Kamala-supported media like ACB news, then two more debates with one in a Republic-supporrted news.

At the end, at least so far, Kamala agreed to do only one debate which was hosted by ABCnews and we saw how ABCnews did their severe election interference days ago.

So after refusing to do two other debates, why shortly after a first debate, Kamala wanted more?

Think about it, analyze the flow, something can be retrieved.

[TwitchySeal]

I thought that it was Trump who is asking for a second debate as they know that they have been defeated on the first one? So if the consensus is that Kamala did better, then why ask for a rematch when she won already?

The flow of their debate organization is as follows:

Trump asked for debates. Kamala refused or ignored many times.
Trump asked for debates with first on Kamala-supported media like ACB news, then two more debates with one in a Republic-supporrted news.

At the end, at least so far, Kamala agreed to do only one debate which was hosted by ABCnews and we saw how ABCnews did their severe election interference days ago.

So after refusing to do two other debates, why shortly after a first debate, Kamala wanted more?

Think about it, analyze the flow, something can be retrieved.

Kamala just agreed to the same debate that was originally scheduled between Biden and Trump, same time, same network, same rules.  I think the only thing she tried to change was to keep Trumps mic on the whole time.  And the debate happened less than two months after her campaign even existed....so wherever you're getting all your 'flow of their debate organization' from....don't get stuff from there anymore.

[EarnOnVictor]

It's interesting to see the aftermath of Trump performing the way he did in the debate.

In terms of the odds, Kamala is the new favorite in every bookie. Trump is now in denial saying people think he won the debate and polls show that, but clearly this is a false statement.

I didn't expect less here, it's all clear, Trump has nothing to offer other than his headstrong and lies as usual. I know him as the kind of man who would see white but call it black and still stand by it. I wonder why he even has a high base of supporters if not that people are insane, division everywhere. He thought it would be as easy as Biden's time.

Trump had every last word in the debate, yet managed to bring up bad arguments nearly every time.

Lol...That truly speaks of Trump, he likes to spit all the jargon out effectively.

This all goes to show that we're still in for a very tight race and neither team should get comfortable.

That's it, the election would be keenly contested and I think this will be an eye-opener to bigots who think Bitcoin will determine the next US president, how foolish is that? I wonder how many times they mentioned Bitcoin in the debate.