[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

Interesting stuff from the china exchanges. Thanks for the info!

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[ArticMine]

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From what Ive been reading this russian guys ponzi is way bigger.  Apparently people lost around 30-40 billion dollars like ten years ago in another of his ponzi schemes.  The current ponzi is already well established in many countries, running for 5 years but only recently turned to Bitcoin due to likely banking issues (LOL).  There is a very large participant user base already involved and now they are being forced to use Bitcoin.

If the ponzi operators stay long Bitcoin this could potentially cause a sharp spike in the price of Bitcoin. The ponzi stays solvent as long as price of Bitcoin rises faster than the rate of return on the ponzi. If the price of Bitcoin falls the ponzi will colapse and in the process magnify the resulting bear market in Bitcoin. A combination of Monero and fiat may turn out to be a much safer postion than Bitcoin.

[jehst]

The ponzi stays solvent as long as price of Bitcoin rises faster than the rate of return on the ponzi.

The ponzi can also run while being insolvent for quite a while, which is how they traditionally go. They do that by limiting withdrawals and whatnot. This could go on for weeks, months, or years. And it's impossible to know when it will collapse. Throw it in the pile of wildcards.

[XMRpromotions]

Below is an interesting fungibility topic that may interest some of you. I recommend not mentioning Monero since it is a bitcoin thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1218264

[ArticMine]

The ponzi stays solvent as long as price of Bitcoin rises faster than the rate of return on the ponzi.

The ponzi can also run while being insolvent for quite a while, which is how they traditionally go. They do that by limiting withdrawals and whatnot. This could go on for weeks, months, or years. And it's impossible to know when it will collapse. Throw it in the pile of wildcards.

Of course it can. The key in my mind is to understand how the ponzi is positioned and make a long term bet against it. When the ponzi collapses then there is an opportunity to profit from its demise. In the pirateat40 ponzi the ponzi was a bear ponzi so a buy / hold position in Bitcoin during late 2011 and early 2012 turned out to be very profitable in 2013, after the ponzi collapsed. In this case we are likely dealing with a bull ponzi since the ponzi returns are not denominated in Bitcoin, so staying out of Bitcoin with say an XMR / USD (or XMR/ other fiat) mix actually makes sense to me.

[americanpegasus]

True. A ponzi scheme accumulated 20% of all LTC in one address (https://coinplorer.com/LTC/Addresses/34Ae29qWAhGGTw3cSNkPygiwsgKbbCatou?skip=40) this year. These things can be incredibly powerful once they get going.

Whoa, whoa, whoa.  You're telling me that it is safe to assume that one person (or entity) owns 20% of all litecoin now thanks to a successful scam?  That's *double* the unthinkable amount that Satoshi holds.  Wow.

[wpalczynski]

True. A ponzi scheme accumulated 20% of all LTC in one address (https://coinplorer.com/LTC/Addresses/34Ae29qWAhGGTw3cSNkPygiwsgKbbCatou?skip=40) this year. These things can be incredibly powerful once they get going.

Whoa, whoa, whoa.  You're telling me that it is safe to assume that one person (or entity) owns 20% of all litecoin now thanks to a successful scam?  That's *double* the unthinkable amount that Satoshi holds.  Wow.

That is very doubtful.  The address holds nowhere near that many LTC now.  Chances are organizers cashed out during the LTC pump.

[smoothie]

It looks like lots of Chinese are getting sucked into this ponzi scheme. Look at these videos. You can see all the transfers are done in bitcoin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ni68D5vwz2Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmcCN31qQAo

Look at the dates.

They are using bitcoin to send payments to other participants.

As long as the price goes up it will work :-P Anyway, Bitcoin already had enough bad publicity. I am quite sure it could handle this as well. It's not like you can do anything to stop it.

Finally!!!  The holy grail Bitcoin killer app everyone has been waiting for!!

A lot of people are going to get hurt

Ponzi participants, sure.  However this buying frenzy could be just the thing to push us into another longer bull run.

True. A ponzi scheme accumulated 20% of all LTC in one address (https://coinplorer.com/LTC/Addresses/34Ae29qWAhGGTw3cSNkPygiwsgKbbCatou?skip=40) this year. These things can be incredibly powerful once they get going.

Link please 

[jehst]

It looks like lots of Chinese are getting sucked into this ponzi scheme. Look at these videos. You can see all the transfers are done in bitcoin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ni68D5vwz2Q
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmcCN31qQAo

Look at the dates.

They are using bitcoin to send payments to other participants.

As long as the price goes up it will work :-P Anyway, Bitcoin already had enough bad publicity. I am quite sure it could handle this as well. It's not like you can do anything to stop it.

Finally!!!  The holy grail Bitcoin killer app everyone has been waiting for!!

A lot of people are going to get hurt

Ponzi participants, sure.  However this buying frenzy could be just the thing to push us into another longer bull run.

True. A ponzi scheme accumulated 20% of all LTC in one address (https://coinplorer.com/LTC/Addresses/34Ae29qWAhGGTw3cSNkPygiwsgKbbCatou?skip=40) this year. These things can be incredibly powerful once they get going.

Link please 

http://www.dailytradingprofits.com/4669/was-litecoin-pumped-by-a-chinese-ponzi-scheme/

[digicoin]

XMR has no volume now 

Investor may think XMR is not really cheap. 0.011 - 0.012 can be right price.

[smoothie]

XMR has no volume now  

Investor may think XMR is not really cheap. 0.011 - 0.012 can be right price.

I say let the price drop.

Let's see where the floor is.

I'm still digging through the source code and I am still convinced the technology that exists at the protocol layer is very cutting edge.

The code needs to be organized into libraries like the devs are doing at this time. It is readable if you know what you are looking for.

GUI can come later. May was well fix the interior than drive a ferrari with no engine.

[XMRChina]

True. A ponzi scheme accumulated 20% of all LTC in one address (https://coinplorer.com/LTC/Addresses/34Ae29qWAhGGTw3cSNkPygiwsgKbbCatou?skip=40) this year. These things can be incredibly powerful once they get going.

Whoa, whoa, whoa.  You're telling me that it is safe to assume that one person (or entity) owns 20% of all litecoin now thanks to a successful scam?  That's *double* the unthinkable amount that Satoshi holds.  Wow.

That is very doubtful.  The address holds nowhere near that many LTC now.  Chances are organizers cashed out during the LTC pump.

It was a very large scale scam.

[obit33]

nice, orders filled between 0.00125 and 0.00132...

let's break out of this falling wedge now, and bounce of the long term trendline:

[XMRChina]

Several months I built China focused Monero website that I wait to launch until getmonero.org adds translated Chinese page to link to. My page will build community but official page still needs Chinese. At least landing (already translated) and download page should have Chinese. Translators worked hard and did good job: https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/329/translation-of-content-on-getmonero-org-into-chinese. Fluffypony say this can be merged after this is done: https://github.com/denniss/monero-site/tree/multi-lang-integration but it taking long time.

Are there any recent updates on this? It should be high priority. Why can't the first page be updated now now before the multi language support is added? It would be a big improvement over the status quo.

[medusa13]

bids will take some time to recover from this. if btc tops out soon i guess we will recover really fast, maybe it would even cause an xmr bull run. if btc continues to go up, well..i say it wont drop below 30 cents anyway, but what this means in btc denominated prices is hard to tell. making a new low below 0009 would be bad.

so heads up, ~0.43$ now.

btw yeah i somehow agree with risto, we are all loaded now

[GingerAle]

Several months I built China focused Monero website that I wait to launch until getmonero.org adds translated Chinese page to link to. My page will build community but official page still needs Chinese. At least landing (already translated) and download page should have Chinese. Translators worked hard and did good job: https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/329/translation-of-content-on-getmonero-org-into-chinese. Fluffypony say this can be merged after this is done: https://github.com/denniss/monero-site/tree/multi-lang-integration but it taking long time.

Are there any recent updates on this? It should be high priority. Why can't the first page be updated now now before the multi language support is added? It would be a big improvement over the status quo.

No idea. If you don't want to wait, aerbax has monerobase.com going. Its not as fancy as getmonero.org, but its much quicker to publish stuff. He also just added a language thinger. So, that is an option.

[GingerAle]

XMR has no volume now  

Investor may think XMR is not really cheap. 0.011 - 0.012 can be right price.

I say let the price drop.

Let's see where the floor is.

I'm still digging through the source code and I am still convinced the technology that exists at the protocol layer is very cutting edge.

The code needs to be organized into libraries like the devs are doing at this time. It is readable if you know what you are looking for.

GUI can come later. May was well fix the interior than drive a ferrari with no engine.

have you had any success in making comments in the code?

[dEBRUYNE]

bids will take some time to recover from this. if btc tops out soon i guess we will recover really fast, maybe it would even cause an xmr bull run. if btc continues to go up, well..i say it wont drop below 30 cents anyway, but what this means in btc denominated prices is hard to tell. making a new low below 0009 would be bad.

so heads up, ~0.43$ now.

btw yeah i somehow agree with risto, we are all loaded now

Bids are pretty much the same as before the drop. So either the market is pretty resilient or this is just the work of one entity playing games. I am betting on the latter. Regarding fiat price, I think we'll manage to stay in the $0.36-$0.46 range. I personally don't see it falling below that. However, you never know with these irrational markets.

Somewhat agree with the bolded as well. However, 0.9 should be sufficient to attract a bunch of new people.

[equipoise]

bids will take some time to recover from this. if btc tops out soon i guess we will recover really fast, maybe it would even cause an xmr bull run. if btc continues to go up, well..i say it wont drop below 30 cents anyway, but what this means in btc denominated prices is hard to tell. making a new low below 0009 would be bad.

so heads up, ~0.43$ now.

btw yeah i somehow agree with risto, we are all loaded now

I'm still at about 65% of my short term target, but I'm loading really, really slow - 1) each day I'm buying very tiny amount, 2) each week whenever I decide I buy about 50 - 100x more then 1), and 3) at each big price swing I'm buying about 5x more then 2). 1 + 2 + 3 + what I already have is far away from a whale quantity, but still I'm at 65% of my short term target. My next mid term target is about 5x-10x compared to my short term target and I won't ever get there if the price goes to the moon too soon. For now I don't have a long term target - till then we are going to the moon or to zero.

[vuduchyld]

Several months I built China focused Monero website that I wait to launch until getmonero.org adds translated Chinese page to link to. My page will build community but official page still needs Chinese. At least landing (already translated) and download page should have Chinese. Translators worked hard and did good job: https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/329/translation-of-content-on-getmonero-org-into-chinese. Fluffypony say this can be merged after this is done: https://github.com/denniss/monero-site/tree/multi-lang-integration but it taking long time.

Are there any recent updates on this? It should be high priority...

Totally agree.  Obviously, China is driving the BTC rise, with 80-85% of the volume.  A few pages back, there was some speculation about how easy it is for Chinese folks to circumvent controls using BTC, with the implication being that there is no real need for XMR.

May be completely true, and this is COMPLETELY unscientific and patently simplistic, but the alt I keep track of as a proxy for the Chinese alt market is Ruby.  Just look at the volume and price increases in the past 6-8 weeks. It is up 10x since August. Clearly, some of the Chinese volume IS going into alts, not just BTC.