[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Monerobuyer0]

Why this sudden change. Did all who wanted BTC for halving already sold them in past half year?

This.  Everyone who doesnt really believe in Monero got out already when btc rose.
The remaining holders actually want Monero.  (And most of us are probably well diversified between monero and btc and thus dont really need to sell one for the other).

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[rangedriver]

Why this sudden change. Did all who wanted BTC for halving already sold them in past half year?

This.  Everyone who doesnt really believe in Monero got out already when btc rose.
The remaining holders actually want Monero.  (And most of us are probably well diversified between monero and btc and thus dont really need to sell one for the other).

Not necessarily true, and in fact, quite possibly the opposite.

Those who understand Monero's long-term potential would want to acquire Monero at cheap prices - a feat that would invariably involve temporarily jumping on a rising BTC train. I think that it's a bastion of human nature that people want good stuff as cheaply as possible... and Monero is clearly good stuff.

All that remains is the strategy employed. For some, there are no moral or legal boundaries. For others, it's a case of careful study of the trading variables and acting accordingly.

Believing in Monero, however, comes easily. It's the belief in where the charts will go tis the biggest headache.

[americanpegasus]

The answer is surprisingly simple, yet infuriating.  Buy Monero, secure it in cold storage, and then help build the Monero economy and community.  Don't worry about the price. 
 
For example, if Bitcoin goes up, but so does Monero's BTC ratio, getting out of Monero temporarily to ride the Bitcoin wave up will ultimately hurt your XMR holdings.

[primer-]

I love the pump but unless monero really takes off (0.04-0.05) it won't survive Ethereum's ring signature mixers soon to be launched.....

[Hueristic]

The answer is surprisingly simple, yet infuriating.  Buy Monero, secure it in cold storage, and then help build the Monero economy and community.  Don't worry about the price. 
 
For example, if Bitcoin goes up, but so does Monero's BTC ratio, getting out of Monero temporarily to ride the Bitcoin wave up will ultimately hurt your XMR holdings.

I have to disagree here (make note anyone that thinks this thread is a circle jerk), it all depends on the amount you own. For instance my holdings were so small that I was able to cash out without effecting the price in any meaningful way. I agree that partially cashing out is stupid just as the morons that lend at such a low rate are shooting themselves in the foot.

Now I am 100% certain and have absolutely no doubt that Monero is the best Virtual currency bar NONE but in order to increase my holdings I am taking from the BTC bubble and will buy back in when it pops and I expect XMR will dip down to 1 usd again and I will get back in then.

I love the pump but unless monero really takes off (0.04-0.05) it won't survive Ethereum's ring signature mixers soon to be launched.....

Sorry, remind me when ETH's chain has been attacked and survived and where this supposed tech is anything more than pie in the sky ATM. We keep hearing how all these other coins are going to copy Crypto-Note with a Lite mix version but havn't even seen any that have come through.

Actually quite the opposite we have watched Shadow (the only one I know that actually released something in this regard) get completely De-anaomized by Monero scientists.

Now go change your botnet off that pool!

[primer-]

The answer is surprisingly simple, yet infuriating.  Buy Monero, secure it in cold storage, and then help build the Monero economy and community.  Don't worry about the price. 
 
For example, if Bitcoin goes up, but so does Monero's BTC ratio, getting out of Monero temporarily to ride the Bitcoin wave up will ultimately hurt your XMR holdings.

I have to disagree here (make note anyone that thinks this thread is a circle jerk), it all depends on the amount you own. For instance my holdings were so small that I was able to cash out without effecting the price in any meaningful way. I agree that partially cashing out is stupid just as the morons that lend at such a low rate are shooting themselves in the foot.

Now I am 100% certain and have absolutely no doubt that Monero is the best Virtual currency bar NONE but in order to increase my holdings I am taking from the BTC bubble and will buy back in when it pops and I expect XMR will dip down to 1 usd again and I will get back in then.

I love the pump but unless monero really takes off (0.04-0.05) it won't survive Ethereum's ring signature mixers soon to be launched.....

Sorry, remind me when ETH's chain has been attacked and survived and where this supposed tech is anything more than pie in the sky ATM. We keep hearing how all these other coins are going to copy Crypto-Note with a Lite mix version but havn't even seen any that have come through.

Actually quite the opposite we have watched Shadow (the only one I know that actually released something in this regard) get completely De-anaomized by Monero scientists.

Now go change your botnet off that pool!

Please do not compare a shitcoin with ETH.. Monero's only purpose it to make botnet operators rich.. Less than 10% of network hash rate are real users.. Unless monero attracts BTC bubble newcomers it's  done...

[ArticMine]

I dont understand that compared to last half year, last 2 weeks rare is selling Moneros. Why this sudden change. Did all who wanted BTC for halving already sold them in past half year? Or something is expecting?

The fundamentals for Monero are very different from last year. We have a significant drop in the emission and more importantly an even greater drop in the inflation rate. We also have seen some very significant improvements in Monero project. https://getmonero.org/2016/02/10/monero-missive-2015-year-in-review.html One very significant improvement, that has a direct impact on usability, in the removal of the large memory requirements for running Monero, from well over 9 GB to under 300 MB. This means support for 32bit GNU/Linux and Windows including Windows XP and support for ARMv7 devices.

The answer is surprisingly simple, yet infuriating.  Buy Monero, secure it in cold storage, and then help build the Monero economy and community.  Don't worry about the price.  
  
For example, if Bitcoin goes up, but so does Monero's BTC ratio, getting out of Monero temporarily to ride the Bitcoin wave up will ultimately hurt your XMR holdings.

I have to disagree here (make note anyone that thinks this thread is a circle jerk), it all depends on the amount you own. For instance my holdings were so small that I was able to cash out without effecting the price in any meaningful way. I agree that partially cashing out is stupid just as the morons that lend at such a low rate are shooting themselves in the foot.

Now I am 100% certain and have absolutely no doubt that Monero is the best Virtual currency bar NONE but in order to increase my holdings I am taking from the BTC bubble and will buy back in when it pops and I expect XMR will dip down to 1 usd again and I will get back in then.


...

I am with americanpegasus here. My take is that the current rise in Bitcoin is driven to a large degree by fear in the fiat markets. A significant factor in the latter is the threat of Brexit. If Bitcoin moons for what ever reason I would much rather be in an alt I believe in than in Bitcoin. I base this to large degree on the price behavior of most alt-coins during the Bitcoin bull markets of 2013.  

[letsplayagame]

I see more GUI commits:

https://github.com/mbg033/monero-core/commit/3ddd9bed72da0e039f44b64a4cc9fff679dd40ed

[Johnny Mnemonic]

I love the pump but unless monero really takes off (0.04-0.05) it won't survive Ethereum's ring signature mixers soon to be launched.....

There's a lot more to XMR than ring sigs. Even still, from what I understand Ethereum ring-sig transactions will be optional and quite expensive. I'm unconcerned.

Please do not compare a shitcoin with ETH.. Monero's only purpose it to make botnet operators rich.. Less than 10% of network hash rate are real users.. Unless monero attracts BTC bubble newcomers it's  done...

How do you know 90% of the hash rate is botnets? I'm curious to see the numbers.

[Monerobuyer0]

I love the pump but unless monero really takes off (0.04-0.05) it won't survive Ethereum's ring signature mixers soon to be launched.....

There's a lot more to XMR than ring sigs. Even still, from what I understand Ethereum ring-sig transactions will be optional and quite expensive. I'm unconcerned.

Please do not compare a shitcoin with ETH.. Monero's only purpose it to make botnet operators rich.. Less than 10% of network hash rate are real users.. Unless monero attracts BTC bubble newcomers it's  done...

How do you know 90% of the hash rate is botnets? I'm curious to see the numbers.

He runs the botnet maybe? 

[GingerAle]

I love the pump but unless monero really takes off (0.04-0.05) it won't survive Ethereum's ring signature mixers soon to be launched.....

There's a lot more to XMR than ring sigs. Even still, from what I understand Ethereum ring-sig transactions will be optional and quite expensive. I'm unconcerned.

Please do not compare a shitcoin with ETH.. Monero's only purpose it to make botnet operators rich.. Less than 10% of network hash rate are real users.. Unless monero attracts BTC bubble newcomers it's  done...

How do you know 90% of the hash rate is botnets? I'm curious to see the numbers.

He runs the botnet maybe? 

He IS the botnet.

I speculate that we will watch monero continue to rise until it plateaus. Then, as always with monero rises, someone decides to cash out and tanks the price. by like 40%.

Though we haven't seen what happens with a serious bitcoin moon event.

[smooth]

There is no 90% botnet. Period.

There was one actual botnet identified recently and the author of the report estimated the revenue as something up to $1000 per month, which if you work it out is a teeny tiny fraction of the hash rate. The larger the botnet the more likely it is to be detected and reported. 90% Monero botnets would be hundreds of thousands if not millions of computers. There is zero chance that exists in the wild without being detected and reported.

[Hueristic]

I dont understand that compared to last half year, last 2 weeks rare is selling Moneros. Why this sudden change. Did all who wanted BTC for halving already sold them in past half year? Or something is expecting?

The fundamentals for Monero are very different from last year. We have a significant drop in the emission and more importantly an even greater drop in the inflation rate. We also have seen some very significant improvements in Monero project. https://getmonero.org/2016/02/10/monero-missive-2015-year-in-review.html One very significant improvement, that has a direct impact on usability, in the removal of the large memory requirements for running Monero, from well over 9 GB to under 300 MB. This means support for 32bit GNU/Linux and Windows including Windows XP and support for ARMv7 devices.

The answer is surprisingly simple, yet infuriating.  Buy Monero, secure it in cold storage, and then help build the Monero economy and community.  Don't worry about the price.  
  
For example, if Bitcoin goes up, but so does Monero's BTC ratio, getting out of Monero temporarily to ride the Bitcoin wave up will ultimately hurt your XMR holdings.

I have to disagree here (make note anyone that thinks this thread is a circle jerk), it all depends on the amount you own. For instance my holdings were so small that I was able to cash out without effecting the price in any meaningful way. I agree that partially cashing out is stupid just as the morons that lend at such a low rate are shooting themselves in the foot.

Now I am 100% certain and have absolutely no doubt that Monero is the best Virtual currency bar NONE but in order to increase my holdings I am taking from the BTC bubble and will buy back in when it pops and I expect XMR will dip down to 1 usd again and I will get back in then.


...

I am with americanpegasus here. My take is that the current rise in Bitcoin is driven to a large degree by fear in the fiat markets. A significant factor in the latter is the threat of Brexit. If Bitcoin moons for what ever reason I would much rather be in an alt I believe in than in Bitcoin. I base this to large degree on the price behavior of most alt-coins during the Bitcoin bull markets of 2013.  

Ummm, I never even had an opinion on why BTC is on the rise so how can you say you agree with him and by extension not me when I never presented an opinion on the btc rise? I stated I would rather have my holdings in fiat for the bubble burst where you state you would rather have it in an alt which basically is us all agreeing that holding BTC is the foolish move. I disagreed on whether getting out of xmr is a good thing or not and I postulated that it depends on the market share you are holding.

[binaryFate]

The (short term) inverse correlation between $/BTC price movements and BTC/XMR rate is strong and consistent at the moment.
What do you think is the best way to profit of this? How do you try to time properly BTC price movements? Do you use stop orders to limit loss or not?

[primer-]

There is no 90% botnet. Period.

There was one actual botnet identified recently and the author of the report estimated the revenue as something up to $1000 per month, which if you work it out is a teeny tiny fraction of the hash rate. The larger the botnet the more likely it is to be detected and reported. 90% Monero botnets would be hundreds of thousands if not millions of computers. There is zero chance that exists in the wild without being detected and reported.

Idiot   

[Kramerc]

I think Monero will moon soon, so I'm just trading with very little amounts right now. If i profit, good, if not, I'm hodling the bitcorns. My sell orders weren't hit yesterday but still I decided to sell a very little amount (around a tenth of my asks) and I'm thinking of buying it back today, as my goal is to accumulate moneros.

[smooth]

There is no 90% botnet. Period.

There was one actual botnet identified recently and the author of the report estimated the revenue as something up to $1000 per month, which if you work it out is a teeny tiny fraction of the hash rate. The larger the botnet the more likely it is to be detected and reported. 90% Monero botnets would be hundreds of thousands if not millions of computers. There is zero chance that exists in the wild without being detected and reported.

Idiot   

primer- your personal insult is off topic and could be deleted under the posted thread rules but I feel like leaving it here anyway as a permanent record of your behavior

[Febo]

Just think guys please if primier_ would mine lots he would always try to shill Monero, but he all the time FUD it.  He dont mine Monero at all. He is a FUD account of a bagholder that is afraid of Monero.

[ArticMine]

...
Ummm, I never even had an opinion on why BTC is on the rise so how can you say you agree with him and by extension not me when I never presented an opinion on the btc rise? I stated I would rather have my holdings in fiat for the bubble burst where you state you would rather have it in an alt which basically is us all agreeing that holding BTC is the foolish move. I disagreed on whether getting out of xmr is a good thing or not and I postulated that it depends on the market share you are holding.

I see the market at this point as very complex and I can see why a simple commnet  such as:

I am with americanpegasus here. ...

can lead to a misunderstanding.

The question that comes to my mind is are we going in to a Bitcoin bubble?

If the answer is no then this is a scenario where moving into fiat with the idea of buying Monero in the future at a lower price in fiat terms than now may make some sense. Still even under this scenario there remains the risk of significant improvements in Monero such as the GUI and RingCT, keeping the fiat price of Monero above the current levels.

If the answer is yes then my take is that we can learn from the past behaviors of alt coins in the 2013 Bitcoin bubbles. Litecoin is a good example; however this market behavior was by no means limited to Litecoin. I will start with both the LTC/XBT and LTC/USD charts going back to 2012.
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/usd/btc-e/alltime
Now compare this to XBT/USD also going back to 2011
https://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/btc/usd/bitstamp/alltime

The salient points I see are:
1) Litecoin spikes with respect to Bitcoin at the same time as Bitcoin spikes with respect to USD. In effect Litecoin acts as a leveraged play on Bitcoin during the Bitcoin bubble.
2) The pre March 2013 Litecoin lows with respect to both USD and even XBT were not reached in the subsequent bear markets. Yes Litecoin fell from close to 50 USD to just over 1 USD in 2015, in a brutal bear market. This bear market, however, was not brutal enough to bail out a  Litecoin "short" who sold LTC for USD in say February of 2013 with the intent of buying back into LTC after the bubble burst.
3) The Litecoin lows with respect to XBT and USD  after the April 2013 and November 2013 bubbles were comparable. One possible scenario is that the April 2013 Bitcoin bubble brought a new awareness to Litcoin since it was the first bubble in Bitcoin after the creation of Litecoin. This could be relevant not just for Monero but also for those coins that were created in 2014 or later.

Are the markets the same now as in 2013? Of course not; however I see the differences as possibly magnifying this effect in the case of Monero. We have Bitcoin suffering with the blocksize debate and is already driving money into the alt-coins, with Ethereum being the most clear case. There is also of course the chance of some of the pending development work in Monero being completed in the interim. With all of this in mind I find the idea of holding fiat with the idea of buying Monero at a later date, creating an effective short position, an extremely risky proposition. It could work but it could also backfire badly.

Of course this must not be construed as investment advice and any long or short position in crypto currency should be considered extremly high risk and only undertaken after obtaining appropriate professional advice.

Disclosure: I do currently hold XMR, CAD and smaller amounts of XBT, NMC and USD.

[novag]

Can XMR on POLO to take the price of 0.004BTC?