[XMR] Monero Speculation

[e-coinomist]

If 2015 is the year the alts really start to take on Bitcoin as number one, I wonder if Monero will be up there with the other giants, Ethereum, Bitshares, etc...

My fear is that Monero gets left behind.

On the list of your Giants I do hope for that "etc..." coin  since the others are doh

My forecast for 2015: A bloodbath, just in the end we'll see a new #1 and BTC biten the dust (with BTC Bagholders still beeing in denial)

[rdnkjdi]

My forecast for 2015: A bloodbath, just in the end we'll see a new #1 and BTC biten the dust (with BTC Bagholders still being in denial)

I actually agree with this although I don't know that it will happen in 2015.  Crypto can't go anywhere with a revolving door of trading leaders every few years because it's not economically viable.  That said - I feel Bitcoin's economic model is broken with the trending towards 0 block reward.

I actually find Ethereum's ongoing distribution model much more geared towards what makes sense to me in a growing economic structure.

[smooth]

My forecast for 2015: A bloodbath, just in the end we'll see a new #1 and BTC biten the dust (with BTC Bagholders still being in denial)

I actually agree with this although I don't know that it will happen in 2015.  Crypto can't go anywhere with a revolving door of trading leaders every few years because it's not economically viable.  That said - I feel Bitcoin's economic model is broken with the trending towards 0 block reward.

I actually find Ethereum's ongoing distribution model much more geared towards what makes sense to me in a growing economic structure.

Monero and Ethereum will have a similar reward structure in several years.

[grendel25]

My forecast for 2015: A bloodbath, just in the end we'll see a new #1 and BTC biten the dust (with BTC Bagholders still being in denial)

I actually agree with this although I don't know that it will happen in 2015.  Crypto can't go anywhere with a revolving door of trading leaders every few years because it's not economically viable.  That said - I feel Bitcoin's economic model is broken with the trending towards 0 block reward.

I actually find Ethereum's ongoing distribution model much more geared towards what makes sense to me in a growing economic structure.

Monero and Ethereum will have a similar reward structure in several years.

So coins can just restructure?  Why wouldn't btc just restructure?  But really, I'm all for more coin options in the crypto world so I hope XMR or others can be more competitive. 

[smooth]

My forecast for 2015: A bloodbath, just in the end we'll see a new #1 and BTC biten the dust (with BTC Bagholders still being in denial)

I actually agree with this although I don't know that it will happen in 2015.  Crypto can't go anywhere with a revolving door of trading leaders every few years because it's not economically viable.  That said - I feel Bitcoin's economic model is broken with the trending towards 0 block reward.

I actually find Ethereum's ongoing distribution model much more geared towards what makes sense to me in a growing economic structure.

Monero and Ethereum will have a similar reward structure in several years.

So coins can just restructure?  Why wouldn't btc just restructure?  But really, I'm all for more coin options in the crypto world so I hope XMR or others can be more competitive. 

There is no restructuring. Monero was designed with a fixed minimum maintenance reward, which is the same as Ethereum once you get past the first several years. In the first few years they are quite different, but then they end up in the same place.  Ethereum has a premine/ICO then then a fixed reward, Monero has a smooth declining reward.

This is no coincidence -- many have questioned the logic of bitcoin's decline-to-zero structure, and many believe it will need to change (or see Bitcoin fail). Adam Back said something about maybe there would be a consensus to slow down the curve once the issue becomes more pressing, which gave me a bit of a laugh.

[ArticMine]

My forecast for 2015: A bloodbath, just in the end we'll see a new #1 and BTC biten the dust (with BTC Bagholders still being in denial)

I actually agree with this although I don't know that it will happen in 2015.  Crypto can't go anywhere with a revolving door of trading leaders every few years because it's not economically viable.  That said - I feel Bitcoin's economic model is broken with the trending towards 0 block reward.

I actually find Ethereum's ongoing distribution model much more geared towards what makes sense to me in a growing economic structure.

Not only that, the entire Bitcoin culture was built around the coin having a fix block reward until 0 and it being transparent with linkable transactions both aspects are core to the Bitcoin philosophy and I believe they have their place but for the end user they don't make much sense, Moneros approach is more refined.

A more immediate issue will be the 1MB block size limit in Bitcoin, which does not affect Monero.

[rdnkjdi]

Adam Back said something about maybe there would be a consensus to slow down the curve once the issue becomes more pressing, which gave me a bit of a laugh.

Yeah ... considering the entire thing is built around mining syndicates.  I'm sure they'd opt for that.

The reason bitcoin won't change is because of decentralized consensus.  The only thing more inefficient than bureaucracy 

[bigj]

Bitstamp is down -- any spillover effects on Monero so far?

EDIT, for completeness:

BITSTAMP SERVICE TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED

We have reason to believe that one of Bitstamp’s operational wallets was compromised on January 4th, 2015.
As a security precaution against compromises Bitstamp only maintains a small fraction of customer bitcoins in online systems. Bitstamp maintains more than enough offline reserves to cover the compromised bitcoins.
IN THE MEANTIME, PLEASE DO NOT MAKE DEPOSITS TO PREVIOUSLY ISSUED BITCOIN DEPOSIT ADDRESSES. THEY CANNOT BE HONORED!
Customer deposits made prior to January 5th, 2015 9:00 UTC are fully covered by Bitstamp’s reserves. Deposits made to newly issued addresses provided after January 5th, 2015 9:00 UTC can be honored.
Bitstamp takes our security and soundness very seriously. In an excess of caution, we are suspending service as we continue to investigate. We will return to service and amend our security measures as appropriate.
Bitstamp Team

[UnicornFarts]

Bitstamp is down -- any spillover effects on Monero so far?

EDIT, for completeness:

BITSTAMP SERVICE TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED

We have reason to believe that one of Bitstamp’s operational wallets was compromised on January 4th, 2015.
As a security precaution against compromises Bitstamp only maintains a small fraction of customer bitcoins in online systems. Bitstamp maintains more than enough offline reserves to cover the compromised bitcoins.
IN THE MEANTIME, PLEASE DO NOT MAKE DEPOSITS TO PREVIOUSLY ISSUED BITCOIN DEPOSIT ADDRESSES. THEY CANNOT BE HONORED!
Customer deposits made prior to January 5th, 2015 9:00 UTC are fully covered by Bitstamp’s reserves. Deposits made to newly issued addresses provided after January 5th, 2015 9:00 UTC can be honored.
Bitstamp takes our security and soundness very seriously. In an excess of caution, we are suspending service as we continue to investigate. We will return to service and amend our security measures as appropriate.
Bitstamp Team

The ironic thing about Monero is that I view bitcoin as more of a liability at this point.  I don't feel Monero is going to go much lower than .01.  And much lower than .014 / .015 for extended periods of time.  Esp once the release curve starts drying up.

Bitcoin on the other hand - I think there's a real possibility it could see double digits in 2015.

[Febo]

Bitstamp is down -- any spillover effects on Monero so far?

EDIT, for completeness:

BITSTAMP SERVICE TEMPORARILY SUSPENDED

We have reason to believe that one of Bitstamp’s operational wallets was compromised on January 4th, 2015.
As a security precaution against compromises Bitstamp only maintains a small fraction of customer bitcoins in online systems. Bitstamp maintains more than enough offline reserves to cover the compromised bitcoins.
IN THE MEANTIME, PLEASE DO NOT MAKE DEPOSITS TO PREVIOUSLY ISSUED BITCOIN DEPOSIT ADDRESSES. THEY CANNOT BE HONORED!
Customer deposits made prior to January 5th, 2015 9:00 UTC are fully covered by Bitstamp’s reserves. Deposits made to newly issued addresses provided after January 5th, 2015 9:00 UTC can be honored.
Bitstamp takes our security and soundness very seriously. In an excess of caution, we are suspending service as we continue to investigate. We will return to service and amend our security measures as appropriate.
Bitstamp Team

The ironic thing about Monero is that I view bitcoin as more of a liability at this point.  I don't feel Monero is going to go much lower than .01.  And much lower than .014 / .015 for extended periods of time.  Esp once the release curve starts drying up.

Bitcoin on the other hand - I think there's a real possibility it could see double digits in 2015.

What is happening on Bitstamp will reflect on Monero if it will first reflect on BTC. But i doubt it will have any impact.

If BTC will go under 100 USD, then it will influence on all crypto including Monero and no way Monero would held over 0.001 btc.

[rpietila]

If BTC will go under 100 USD, then it will influence on all crypto including Monero and no way Monero would held over 0.001 btc.

Quite the contrary; it's hard to believe XMR price measured in fiat could go much lower than what it already is, resulting in a XMRBTC of >0.002.

[binaryFate]

I concur. Below a certain threshold, if bitcoin keeps crashing it would become positive for xmr that would appear not just as a complement but as a real competitor.
I doubt we will get to that threshold personally.

[redhack]

We lost a lot of money from Monero. It's sad.

[aminorex]

We lost a lot of money from Monero. It's sad.

Then you weren't buying it all the way down.  I'm still in the red, but only slightly, having been buying continuously since April.  I break even over 200k. If BTC crashes through 200 USD, I suspect I will be in the black.  At 2m, I will sell off any excess I accumulate during the dips.

Sadness and happiness mean nothing to the market.  If you want to succeed in contest with the market, you must not allow your plans to be affected by sadness or happiness.  Both are poisonous to clear reasoning.

[rpietila]

We lost a lot of money from Monero. It's sad.

The rule with longshot investments is that you lose when there is no case of upside left anymore.

In case of Monero, the upside remains in my opinion about as strong as it has ever been.

So the only thing that has changed is the current valuation of the betting coupon. If your position is less than Kelly, doubling down is the right thing to do.

[aminorex]

I can't help but notice that XMrs uptrend was confirmed on XMas eve.  Coincidence?

Then the higher low was on New Year's Day.

The next NYSE holiday is 19 Jan, MLK Jr day.  I shall keep some BTC on hand then, out of sheer superstition, I guess.

actually, looking at the technical structure, I would not be terribly surprised if MLK day was a short term low.  but, as we enter week 3 of an uptrend, my most natural downturn estimates are all in February or March.   

[bclcjunkie]

care to elaborate what your investing strategy was? don't worry you're not the only one who got affected by recent monero price fluctuations but the tips mentioned earlier are great if you want to dollar-cost average your investment... by the way i view monero investment as long term due to its niche in anonymous currency area.. you can take advantage of price fluctuations but that's more to accumulate rather than exit with profits, the choice is yours though.. 

We lost a lot of money from Monero. It's sad.

[smooth]

care to elaborate what your investing strategy was?

Don't bother. Look at the post history. It is just an account being mined up to non-newbie rank so it can be sold.

EDIT: On second look I don't think this is quite true. He's posted about Monero a few times before, so probably just someone with an odd posting style that resembles a rank miner.

[coinits]

We lost a lot of money from Monero. It's sad.

Buy high and selling low works like that. You have been told more than once that this is not a day trading coin. Sucks to be you.

[Hueristic]

We lost a lot of money from Monero. It's sad.

Buy high and selling low works like that. You have been told more than once that this is not a day trading coin. Sucks to be you.

sucks to be me too.

I bought at peak to show BTxpress that he didn't scare anyone. but apparently he did. Lol