[XMR] Monero Speculation

[explorer]

This guide was just posted on reddit btw:

https://github.com/monero-project/monero-site/blob/master/knowledge-base/user-guides/create_wallet.md

Might be helpful for the guys struggling with simplewallet and the CLI.

I wouldn't call it struggling.  In fact, that was ridiculously easy.  I was holding out to set up a linux machine, but jwinterm shamed me into setting up on windblows for the interim.  Took longer to write down the seed words than all the rest combined, once I got it downloaded.  now to transfer a few moneroj in there, and test recovery.

Thanks for the nagging, jwinterm 

[jwinterm]

This guide was just posted on reddit btw:

https://github.com/monero-project/monero-site/blob/master/knowledge-base/user-guides/create_wallet.md

Might be helpful for the guys struggling with simplewallet and the CLI.

I wouldn't call it struggling.  In fact, that was ridiculously easy.  I was holding out to set up a linux machine, but jwinterm shamed me into setting up on windblows for the interim.  Took longer to write down the seed words than all the rest combined, once I got it downloaded.  now to transfer a few moneroj in there, and test recovery.

Thanks for the nagging, jwinterm 

You're welcome, and great idea to do a test recovery with your seed words to make sure you recover the same address.

[twistelaar]

How is the safety of the monero web wallet?

And somebody told me that devs are working on an 1 click instal wallet, when will this one be released? thanks!

[dEBRUYNE]

How is the safety of the monero web wallet?

And somebody told me that devs are working on an 1 click instal wallet, when will this one be released? thanks!

It is considered trustworthy because it is run by Fluffypony, a core-team member of Monero, but I wouldn't store large amounts on it. See:

Well it would be nice if the team or somebody else can develop an user friendly 1 click wallet right? Would also gain more people and attention...

There is also a simple web wallet I see, is it safe option as well?

It's from fluffypony, who is a core-team member, thus considered safe as in trustworthy. However, one should always be cautious with using webwallets.

More specifically there have been successful thefts. Fluffypony explicitly recommends not storing too large an amount there, and instead using it for convenient access to smaller amounts.

Is there a thread or such detailing that?

This one for example: https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/491gbj/i_lost_some_monero_that_i_had_on_mymonerocom/d0ocdpm

But like fluffypony explains in the comments, it is not the webwallet itself but all the (potentially weak) links between (and including) the users computer and the server (the ISP, the VPN provider, TOR exit nodes, CloudFlare, etc). So only use it for pocket change, like your 'real' wallet.

+992983741982371023

I'm in the process of making that a little more clear on the wallet creation page, since I fear for people using it as a form of cold storage. Every time they login they risk their funds getting swiped:/

Regarding an one-click wallet, there is someone actively working on the GUI, see:

https://forum.getmonero.org/8/funding-required/2476/the-official-qt-gui-project

His work and the activity can be followed on:

https://github.com/mbg033?tab=activity

https://github.com/mbg033/monero-core

https://github.com/mbg033/bitmonero

[Johnny Mnemonic]

I don't expect any significant price movement upon the GUI's release, as it would accomplish very little short of eliminating the last bit of "troll ammo" being flung at the project.

A bundled GUI does nothing to create additional use cases outside of the crypto space that would expand Monero's reach.

[aerbax]

A GUI is of critical importance for the next level of adoption.  Monero's current UX is something akin to a "tech preview".  It's for early adopters.

We're all here because we know the technology is fantastic.  It's so fantastic that it's easy to evangelize.  Up until the point where you have to actually *do* something with it.

I know lots of people who *could* use the current CLI.. but it's chore to them.  Their first response to our current wallet is "Ugh...maybe later when I have more time...".  Me?  I have the time *and the interest* because I think we have something awesome here.

Take my dad.  He's installed Linux on his own.  He could probably fire up a terminal, open two tabs, run the daemon in one and the client in another.  But he's not going to do that.  It's a *chore* for him.  If I send him some Monero, he's not even going to check his balance for a while.  Perhaps he will when he wants to shapeshift the Monero into BTC so he can buy a gift card on Gyft. 

But he would be much more apt to do so if he had a GUI running...perhaps it's always running...with a tray icon...and he gets a popup notification when he receives something.  THAT is what we need.

And greater adoption means greater demand.  And the supply is dwindling...so supply and demand = a price increase.

[iCEBREAKER]

"Trezor for Monero – First impressions!":

http://weuse.cash/2016/03/07/trezor-for-monero-first-impressions/

Oh wow, that is pure fire.  Now I need a black one (to sign tx on XMR's opaque blockchain).   

"For usability, I hope the Trezor will be integrated in the “official” Monero GUI."

Is that covered in the community-funded GUI spec or do we need another FFS request for a Trezor add-on/plug-in?

How do we get "Official Native" Monero support on MyTrezor.com?

[dEBRUYNE]

From reddit:

http://themerkle.com/technicalanalysis/monero-technical-analysis-for-03072016/

[dEBRUYNE]

"Trezor for Monero – First impressions!":

http://weuse.cash/2016/03/07/trezor-for-monero-first-impressions/

Oh wow, that is pure fire.  Now I need a black one (to sign tx on XMR's opaque blockchain).   

"For usability, I hope the Trezor will be integrated in the “official” Monero GUI."

Is that covered in the community-funded GUI spec or do we need another FFS request for a Trezor add-on/plug-in?

How do we get "Official Native" Monero support on MyTrezor.com?

[1] I don't think it would be that difficult to hook up the official GUI as user interface instead of simplewallet.

[2] Once they merge it upstream and thus "sign" it. It will also ensure the firmware updates automatically. Trezor indicated they are interested in merging the code upstream. See:

<NoodleDoodle> @fluffypony not yet, I'll work on osx/linux this weekend and see from there. As for the firmware, I'll request a pull upstream once I've added it to github. They are interested in merging it upstream.

From: https://getmonero.org/2016/03/05/overview-and-logs-for-the-dev-meeting-held-on-2016-03-05.html

[Johnny Mnemonic]

A GUI is of critical importance for the next level of adoption.

I disagree. What incentive does anyone outside of our community have to run a full node with a GUI? How many Bitcoin users do you think still use QT?

The "next level" of adoption comes from third-party integrations and services that actually bring utility to the currency. A bundled GUI doesn't deliver any compelling new use cases, and won't result in any new adoption outside of Bitcointalk users and their close relatives.

[cryptodromeda]

The "next level" of adoption comes from third-party integrations and services that actually bring utility to the currency. A bundled GUI doesn't deliver any compelling new use cases, and won't result in any new adoption outside of Bitcointalk users and their close relatives.

With all due respect, what you're saying is crazy.

Of course a bundled GUI will result in new adoption. You can't just assume that everyone knows how to use terminal.... they don't.

The userbase associated with a $1B marketcap is not the same userbase as a cabal of niche crypto-developers who take certain technological fundamentals for granted.

It should also be patently obvious that an easy-to-use GUI gives confidence to third-parties who may be mulling over integration.

[iCEBREAKER]

It should be patently obvious that the GUI will have an effect on price, not just for faciliating greater user adoption but also for being a point of speculative propaganda.

Monero's all-time high is 0.01 which was achieved based on the expectation of Mintpal adoption - a meaningless exchange that has since departed.

The rise of ETH and fall of Cryptsy/Dash has pushed new wealth and whales into Poloniex from which XMR is the primary beneficiary.

Monero is a uniquely attractive tripod that posesses an extrordinary technological component, a credible political base, as well as demonstrable speculative volume.

This means that at any point in time the XMR price can explode without warning and for no reason whatsoever, other than the fact the price is deemed to be very low, and the long-term confidence is deemed to be very high.

Yes, Monero is wobbling on the tipping point and could at any moment fall upwards into a much higher price range.

A GUI will help catalyze the sustained cosmic background levels of adoption/buying pressure needed to offset emission and overwhelm profit-taking supply pressure on the way up.

I like the "uniquely attractive tripod" observation about XMR's critical masses of tech+people+money, as it is congruent with the decentralized+private+digital Monero trivium that I've made my avatar.   

[smooth]

The "next level" of adoption comes from third-party integrations and services that actually bring utility to the currency. A bundled GUI doesn't deliver any compelling new use cases, and won't result in any new adoption outside of Bitcointalk users and their close relatives.

What about the idea that poor ease-of-use serves as a deterrent to third party integrations and services?

[TPTB_need_war]

I suppose someone probably already posted this chart. I had never looked at the long-term Monero chart before:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRBTC/3QZ1D3nD-The-Monero-Bear-Market-Is-Over/

That is impressive. Monero has broken out of the down wedge, which is very technically bullish. But that doesn't mean it can't fall back first to the historic support at 0.0017 BTC. And if BTC falls to < $150 as I expect, then that could mean Monero declining significantly and still be in the bullish formation as Bitcoin makes its final bottom and we start a new bull market in crypto (I subscribe to the theory that BTC is still declining from 2013).

I do agree with the theory of a long term bear market in Bitcoin. I see this because of the following:
1) There is a widening chasm between the promise of Bitcoin,  a digital and fungible currency that can be used by anyone in the world to pay anyone in the world without the need of an intermediary and the reality a digital non fungible currency that can in practice only be used as a settlement layer between the intermediaries Bitcoin was supposed to replace under the promise.
2) The macro economic factors identified by Dent and Armstrong, namely a 30s type deflationary depression. What Dent got wrong is he failed to take into account the impact of the massive quantitative easing or money printing by the central banks since 2008. This would make a strong fiat currency such as USD attractive.

In the scenario above one would expect an overall bear market in crypto currency; however just as was the case during the 1930s with stocks there will be exceptions that buck the overall trend. Identifying the latter is where the real long term opportunities lie. Monero could very easily buck the trend since objectively it is very well placed to become the promise of Bitcoin. What this would point to for Monero is very strong long term prospects combined with extremely high short to medium term volatility and risk. My personal position is almost exclusively a combination of CAD and XMR with no debt. A convertible fiat other than USD can make sense where a person's expenses are denominated in that currency.

Based on the logic of my prior post, if you are comparing your opportunity cost to US dollars, I think you take some short-term profits on XMR. If you are using BTC as your unit-of-account, then HODL Monero.

Simple.

[lolikop]

I just dont understand why Monero is still underpriced, it should be atleast 0.01 if not more

[smooth]

"Trezor for Monero – First impressions!":

http://weuse.cash/2016/03/07/trezor-for-monero-first-impressions/

Nice review. Very clear on how Trezor works and how it is integrated with Monero. The writeup also conveys pretty well how the Monero ecosystem is growing to include more devices, development efforts, and third party support.

[iCEBREAKER]

The "next level" of adoption comes from third-party integrations and services that actually bring utility to the currency. A bundled GUI doesn't deliver any compelling new use cases, and won't result in any new adoption outside of Bitcointalk users and their close relatives.

What about the idea that poor ease-of-use serves as a deterrent to third party integrations and services?

Exactly.  Integrating a highly technical, steep learning curve coin is a losing proposition for a firm if it creates a user support nightmare for their help desk.

The amount of customer hand-holding needed would destroy any possible profit.  That's probably why Polo hasn't added Decred.

Johnny doesn't seem to realize adding a coin with no GUI is basically volunteering to teach a potentially unlimited number of n00bz everything from Command Line 101 to the theory of functions, and how that all relates to RPC, daemons, etc.

Of course potential 3rd party integrators will tend to respond with the polite euphemism for "no way; not on your life; GTFO."   

[nioc]

A GUI is of critical importance for the next level of adoption.

I disagree. What incentive does anyone outside of our community have to run a full node with a GUI? How many Bitcoin users do you think still use QT?

The "next level" of adoption comes from third-party integrations and services that actually bring utility to the currency. A bundled GUI doesn't deliver any compelling new use cases, and won't result in any new adoption outside of Bitcointalk users and their close relatives.

Well btc has many options such as Armory, Electrum etc while Monero has very little although Trezor is coming.

Also it is my understanding that the Monero GUI is going to be kickass but I don't know how it compares to QT.


Bottom line is that the GUI is a very welcome addition.

[aminorex]

Mobile is where it counts the most.  I know I failed on the Mycelium fork.  Sorry about that.  Got too busy, and my code monkey alternate bailed on me.  Maybe later, if it is still relevant.

[tifozi]

I just dont understand why Monero is still underpriced, it should be atleast 0.01 if not more

My theory is too many traders and not enough people who want to give it value by old fashioned HODLing. There is also that GUI thing because of which apparently some Hero Members feel uncomfortable giving it value aka dump when it rises and then back to speculation thread with charts saying it will go down.

With all the excitement coming in the near future wrt RingCT, HF for mixins etc (check dev log), relentless DB optimizations and of course GUI etc coming, there does need to be warning shots fired and a valuation at least twice the current levels be set as floor. But we have had the eyes of a lot of twitter traders who just keep posting about "take profits"/ "short XMR" etc with the slightest of rises throughout last 18 months. These guys are just pure noise makers and 99% of them are just flat out lying about making any profit most of the time, otherwise they would be posting screen shots of their trades. In this very thread you see some keep changing their stance so frequently. The problem is, the audience isn't vast like BTC to use this thread for manipulation and agenda. If only they could use that energy to spread positive info about XMR outside of bitcointalk