[XMR] Monero Speculation

[volyova]

...

everyone know the infinite perpetual coin minting in monero will keep the coin crashing down becasue it will dilute the intrinsic value, everyone will sell at lower price until they all jump ship with  fork and embrace "classic monero" or somethin


EDIT :: inflation is a theory backed by math

Monero's tail inflation rate is less that the historical inflation rate of gold, the Austrian "gold standard" for money.

It will also reach an end state of a fixed money supply assuming any rate of lost coins >0%

Aren't there other solutions to this problem? I wonder what S. Nakamoto had in mind for Bitcoin. Something genius good no doubt...

Another solution would be expire outputs after some period of inactivity (presumably a reasonably long period) and then when they expire (which lost/burned coins certainly would), recycle that to new mining rewards. That would be similar in effect to Monero, though the mining rewards might be more uneven. There is no evidence Satoshi ever considered this approach. It would likely be viewed by many as a violation of the social contract at this point.

Bitcoin money supply will definitely shrink if any coins are lost or burned (which they certainly will and already have, of course). Whether that is a problem is a reasonable matter of debate, but the Monero solution shows that it isn't necessary. You can have a fixed money supply over the long term even accounting for lost coins.

But surely with an infinite number of coins you cannot have scarcity. No-one knows how many coins is too many. Where's the tipping point?

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[volyova]

...

everyone know the infinite perpetual coin minting in monero will keep the coin crashing down becasue it will dilute the intrinsic value, everyone will sell at lower price until they all jump ship with  fork and embrace "classic monero" or somethin


EDIT :: inflation is a theory backed by math

Monero's tail inflation rate is less that the historical inflation rate of gold, the Austrian "gold standard" for money.

It will also reach an end state of a fixed money supply assuming any rate of lost coins >0%

Aren't there other solutions to this problem? I wonder what S. Nakamoto had in mind for Bitcoin. Something genius good no doubt...

Another solution would be expire outputs after some period of inactivity (presumably a reasonably long period) and then when they expire (which lost/burned coins certainly would), recycle that to new mining rewards. That would be similar in effect to Monero, though the mining rewards might be more uneven. There is no evidence Satoshi ever considered this approach. It would likely be viewed by many as a violation of the social contract at this point.

Bitcoin money supply will definitely shrink if any coins are lost or burned (which they certainly will and already have, of course). Whether that is a problem is a reasonable matter of debate, but the Monero solution shows that it isn't necessary. You can have a fixed money supply over the long term even accounting for lost coins.

But surely with an infinite number of coins you cannot have scarcity. No-one knows how many coins is too many. Where's the tipping point?

I have a THEORY that S. Nakamoto ultimately equated 1 satoshi = 1 cent. It worked out eerily well.

[smooth]

...

everyone know the infinite perpetual coin minting in monero will keep the coin crashing down becasue it will dilute the intrinsic value, everyone will sell at lower price until they all jump ship with  fork and embrace "classic monero" or somethin


EDIT :: inflation is a theory backed by math

Monero's tail inflation rate is less that the historical inflation rate of gold, the Austrian "gold standard" for money.

It will also reach an end state of a fixed money supply assuming any rate of lost coins >0%

Aren't there other solutions to this problem? I wonder what S. Nakamoto had in mind for Bitcoin. Something genius good no doubt...

Another solution would be expire outputs after some period of inactivity (presumably a reasonably long period) and then when they expire (which lost/burned coins certainly would), recycle that to new mining rewards. That would be similar in effect to Monero, though the mining rewards might be more uneven. There is no evidence Satoshi ever considered this approach. It would likely be viewed by many as a violation of the social contract at this point.

Bitcoin money supply will definitely shrink if any coins are lost or burned (which they certainly will and already have, of course). Whether that is a problem is a reasonable matter of debate, but the Monero solution shows that it isn't necessary. You can have a fixed money supply over the long term even accounting for lost coins.

But surely with an infinite number of coins you cannot have scarcity. No-one knows how many coins is too many. Where's the tipping point?

Surely? Like you know any of these things for sure? I'm doubting it.

Anyway, as I already explained, with Monero's tail reward it is mathematically provable that it converges to a finite supply with any rate of lost coins >0%.

Do you think a rate of lost coins of literally 0% is plausible? I sure don't.

[TPTB_need_war]

Anyway, as I already explained, with Monero's tail reward it is mathematically provable that it converges to a finite supply with any rate of lost coins >0%.

That is the mathematical upper bound and presumes the tail reward is a not a percentage of the issued supply. The lower bound is potentially 0 supply if (or when if) the tail reward is less than the rate of lost coins.

[rpietila]

Anyway, as I already explained, with Monero's tail reward it is mathematically provable that it converges to a finite supply with any rate of lost coins >0%.

That is the mathematical upper bound and presumes the tail reward is a not a percentage of the issued supply. The lower bound is potentially 0 supply if (or when if) the tail reward is less than the rate of lost coins.

Which it however can never be, assuming that the lost coins are a percentage of existing supply and the tail reward is a fixed quantity of coins (which both hold true).

[TPTB_need_war]

Anyway, as I already explained, with Monero's tail reward it is mathematically provable that it converges to a finite supply with any rate of lost coins >0%.

That is the mathematical upper bound and presumes the tail reward is a not a percentage of the issued supply. The lower bound is potentially 0 supply if (or when if) the tail reward is less than the rate of lost coins.

Which it however can never be, assuming that the lost coins are a percentage of existing [spendable] supply and the tail reward is a fixed quantity of coins (which both hold true).

Note the slight clarification inserted.

"Never" is too restrictive as applied to the bolded phrase, because in the real world there will be oscillation around the equilibrium level.

I agree you have clarified that if the tail reward is a fixed quantity (and thus not a percentage of existing issued supply), then there is an equilibrium where rate of lost coins equals the tail reward; because if the tail reward drops below the rate of lost coins then the existing spendable (not issued) supply decreases until the equilibrium is reached and vice versa.

[smooth]

Anyway, as I already explained, with Monero's tail reward it is mathematically provable that it converges to a finite supply with any rate of lost coins >0%.

That is the mathematical upper bound and presumes the tail reward is a not a percentage of the issued supply. The lower bound is potentially 0 supply if (or when if) the tail reward is less than the rate of lost coins.

Yes that is the case for Monero.

[TPTB_need_war]

Anyway, as I already explained, with Monero's tail reward it is mathematically provable that it converges to a finite supply with any rate of lost coins >0%.

That is the mathematical upper bound and presumes the tail reward is a not a percentage of the issued supply. The lower bound is potentially 0 supply if (or when if) the tail reward is less than the rate of lost coins.

Which it however can never be, assuming that the lost coins are a percentage of existing [spendable] supply and the tail reward is a fixed quantity of coins (which both hold true).

Note the slight clarification inserted.

"Never" is too restrictive as applied to the bolded phrase, because in the real world there will be oscillation around the equilibrium level.

I agree you have clarified that if the tail reward is a fixed quantity (and thus not a percentage of existing issued supply), then there is an equilibrium where rate of lost coins equals the tail reward; because if the tail reward drops below the rate of lost coins then the existing spendable (not issued) supply decreases until the equilibrium is reached and vice versa.

Btw, I think it has been pointed out numerous times before, but doesn't hurt to point out again, that this means any coin without a fixed quantity tail reward is either head asymptotically to 0 (no tail reward or percentage tail reward < rate of lost coins) or infinite supply (percentage based tail reward > rate of lost coins).

Bitcoin's current protocol is thus headed to 0 spendable supply. (that is if China's 67% control over the pools doesn't end up turning Bitcoin into a fiat system)

I remember smooth and I were one of the few who originally wanted a tail reward in Monero. Good to see the change was finally made.

[smooth]

Bitcoin's current protocol is thus headed to 0 spendable supply.

That means moon right? Awesomesauce.

[generalizethis]

Where is noobtrader to acknowledge that his wrong assertion has been adequately corrected in the last half dozen posts? I'd hate to think he just randomly tosses in a troll grenade, leaves, and then does it all over again a few weeks later.

[rpietila]

I hope you are able to get your buy done at a nice low price. Would be a shame for all that FUDding to go to waste!

I don't believe fudding by noobs has any effect on the price.

I don't even believe fudding by myself would have.

[volyova]

I hope you are able to get your buy done at a nice low price. Would be a shame for all that FUDding to go to waste!

I don't believe fudding by noobs has any effect on the price.

I don't even believe fudding by myself would have.

"even" 

[Dotto]

Do we know if the pumper and the dumper were on margin?. Whatever the recent spikes shows the tape is alive. ETH growing again, so it can pull we up too. Neutral to bulliesque sentiment. I can see it toping at around 27k to test back 20k after for a very short span

[dEBRUYNE]

Compared to the other coins in the top 15 (excluding ETH, LTC, BTC for a moment) XMR has got the best liquidity as far as I can see.

How are you calculating liquidity? Is there an easy way to see a comparison of historical measures of liquidity for the "top" cryptocurrencies (including the ones you excluded above)?

Turnover (i.e. volume / marketcap) and buy/ask side compared to market cap / coins outstanding.

[smooth]

Do we know if the pumper and the dumper were on margin?.

One of the big buys was supposedly identified (by someone here) as being closing a short.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I hope you are able to get your buy done at a nice low price. Would be a shame for all that FUDding to go to waste!

I don't believe fudding by noobs has any effect on the price.

I don't even believe fudding by myself would have.

Unfortunately you are wrong.

Once some noobs start farting the price starts to drop and it might drop quite fast as we saw some time ago in this thread when it fell back to low 0.002.
The price is too much dependent on the sentiment of some traders who love to dump the coin at any point they see it is possible to kill the bullish trendline.

[TPTB_need_war]

Bitcoin's current protocol is thus headed [asymptotically] to 0 spendable supply.

That means moon right? Awesomesauce.

What is the reaction if any to the hypothesis that rate of increase in Bitcoin's adoption and evangelism has been declining roughly in correlation with the decline in the ability of a wide diversity of people to mine?

In my mind, the death of the block reward and the rise of ASIC mining leads to the Tragedy of the Commons transaction fees oligarchy and thus the strangulation of Bitcoin. It won't happen overnight and we will have another run up in the price first (perhaps after a V bottom yet unfinished), but there is no long-term decentralized future for Bitcoin afaics.

[volyova]

Nummer twenny-two! F.A.N.G. would like it.  

[noobtrader]

I hope you are able to get your buy done at a nice low price. Would be a shame for all that FUDding to go to waste!

I don't believe fudding by noobs has any effect on the price.

I don't even believe fudding by myself would have.

Unfortunately you are wrong.

Once some noobs start farting the price starts to drop and it might drop quite fast as we saw some time ago in this thread when it fell back to low 0.002.
The price is too much dependent on the sentiment of some traders who love to dump the coin at any point they see it is possible to kill the bullish trendline.

OMG...
 teh whale has spoken... quick guys sell all yor coin before its too late, sell all and  realize the profit,, you can always buy back later after the whale done dumping.
with all teh Inflation ahead, lack of GUI, dozen of competiting CN coin, and infinite emission tailgate... you cant take the chances that monero price will reach 10000 usd seriously... isnt


EDIT ::
oh dear did you hear...
psss... bts implement anonimity...

[dEBRUYNE]

I hope you are able to get your buy done at a nice low price. Would be a shame for all that FUDding to go to waste!

I don't believe fudding by noobs has any effect on the price.

I don't even believe fudding by myself would have.

Unfortunately you are wrong.

Once some noobs start farting the price starts to drop and it might drop quite fast as we saw some time ago in this thread when it fell back to low 0.002.
The price is too much dependent on the sentiment of some traders who love to dump the coin at any point they see it is possible to kill the bullish trendline.

EDIT ::
oh dear did you hear...
psss... bts implement anonimity...

2015 wants its news back.