[XMR] Monero Speculation

[iCEBREAKER]

Peter Todd posted his trusted setup description.  It is long, still reading it.

https://petertodd.org/2016/cypherpunk-desert-bus-zcash-trusted-setup-ceremony

Wow, that hot mess of crypto voodoo explains the Z-Crash.  What's next, animal sacrifice and spirit cooking?   

Peter Wuille Fact:

Trusted third parties are security holes, unless the third party is Peter Wuille.

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[bobabouey2]

Peter Todd posted his trusted setup description.  It is long, still reading it.

https://petertodd.org/2016/cypherpunk-desert-bus-zcash-trusted-setup-ceremony

Wow, that hot mess of crypto voodoo explains the Z-Crash.  What's next, animal sacrifice and spirit cooking?  

Peter Wuille Fact:

Trusted third parties are security holes, unless the third party is Peter Wuille.

His post appears more positive than I expected, but I think there is some more subtle trolling going on.  

The over-all tale is an incredible "Cyberpunk Desert Bus" epic  where he notably one-ups the Zcash insiders in his approach to op-sec. (With a nice little jab against Zooko in Section 2 for taking weeks to bother messaging him over a secure channel with a pgp key.)

Two weeks later on Oct 14th Zooko contacted me again via Signal, saying he “Still [hadn’t] gotten around PGP-signing my Signal fingerprint” and asking if I could be a part of either the Oct 15-16th ceremony, or Oct 22-23rd ceremony. I ignored the message until later that day Zooko finally sent me a PGP-signed email confirming the Signal safety numbers (and for that matter, his phone number!)

But in terms of bigger picture, he notes:

Nothing you will read below changes the fact that you’re trusting me and five other participants not to collude. Full stop. End of story. It is IMPOSSIBLE for myself and the other participants to prove to a third party that we did not collude to keep the secret key. If you do not believe you can trust me, you should stop reading now.

And:

More importantly, verifying Zcash private transactions is orders of magnitude slower than verifying Bitcoin transactions: tens of milliseconds compared to a few microseconds. This is so slow that if Zcash users used private transactions frequently, even without attacks mining Zcash could become unprofitable for all but the largest mining pools even due to slow block propagation effects; if small miners were not forced out of business the Zcash network could even have difficulty maintaining consensus.

In my opinion the Zcash team has been irresponsible, maybe even dishonest, in their choice of block interval and size parameters.

And:

As of writing, I’m not aware of any efforts to independently audit the deterministic build process used to create the compute node DVDs that every participant in the trusted setup used. This means there’s a massive single point of failure in the whole process that completely undermines the value of the multi-party computation.

Until the software and deterministic builds are audited, the entire ceremony is a bunch of crypto hocus pocus.

All emphasis original.

[bbc.reporter]

The other good news are also BitcoinMeister is speaking about xmr.
Bear in mind, last time he became interested the price rose from 1 usd or so 14 usd or so.
If XMR does the same thing also this time, we should be looking at 100 usd XMR. But it is adviced to be cautious and not to go all in XMR.

If we get 100 USD XMR we would be looking at a fundamentally very different situation from now since that would place the market capitalization of Monero at over 1.3 Billion USD with Monero in second place behind Bitcoin. That means for example the major Bitcoin / fiat exchanges, Bitcoin payment processors etc will no longer be able to ignore Monero.  

Yes it is vital for the success of Monero to go beyond 1 billion market cap.
I consider even the current marketcap of bitcoin still a failure if that's the best case scenario Monero can reach. 10 billion is peanuts when we are talking about a currency. There are plenty of single companies that have 10 billion or higher market cap so the currency should be minimum a few orders of magnitude higher.

Yes it would be peanuts for any currency only if there is a real economy supporting it. We have seen so far that Monero has not yet reached that point where it could be considered that it has a real economy behind it like bitcoin has. In your mind it may be easy to gain and naturally develop this economy but in reality it is not. So a $10 billion market cap may not be that easy at all. If it was, another cryptocoin would have reached it after bitcoin.

[bobabouey2]

Peter Todd posted his trusted setup description.  It is long, still reading it.

https://petertodd.org/2016/cypherpunk-desert-bus-zcash-trusted-setup-ceremony

Wow, that hot mess of crypto voodoo explains the Z-Crash.  What's next, animal sacrifice and spirit cooking?   

Peter Wuille Fact:

Trusted third parties are security holes, unless the third party is Peter Wuille.

PS - Missed the spirit cooking reference on first read!

[Hueristic]

...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRKU4-ZhHl8

Lol, I had completely missed that!

Code:

0.0449%	3623.63513249	2-3 Days
0.0450%	0.83741892	2 Days
0.0450%	16651.64981782	2-10 Days

I hope whoever this is gets their account hacked.

Peter Todd posted his trusted setup description.  It is long, still reading it.

https://petertodd.org/2016/cypherpunk-desert-bus-zcash-trusted-setup-ceremony

Thank for this.

Still Bullish.


BTW, I pointed this out months ago.

Their information is very out of date. The current state of the art in both bandwidth and power consumption is to stack memory dies directly on top of logic dies and interconnect them with microscopic thru-silicon vias:

EDIT: What a great read! Todd you impress son. Just the right aMOUNT OF PARANIOA. Damn caps lock.

Thermite would have been a sweet ending to the node.

https://youtu.be/AckDlVGbB5s?t=174

[ArticMine]

Peter Todd posted his trusted setup description.  It is long, still reading it.

https://petertodd.org/2016/cypherpunk-desert-bus-zcash-trusted-setup-ceremony

This is a very good read.

There is however a unique Monero twist to all of this. Prince George, BC, Canada. Is literally one of the worst places on earth to dispose of the ZCash toxic waste. There are two members of the Monero core team that are public about their involvement with the Monero project and one of them, yours truly, lives in Prince George BC. I also drove down to Quesnel BC on the 23rd of October on the very highway mentioned in the blog. It goes without saying that many people would consider that I personally could have a significant financial interest in the demise of ZCash, and could very well be motivated to pay well for the ZCash toxic waste.

Appearances are critical here. The following did not happen:
There was a secret meeting in the bush somewhere between Quesnel, BC and Prince George, BC where the ZCash toxic waste was sold to a member of the Monero core team for an undisclosed amount of XMR.  We met deep in the bush to avoid human witnesses to the transaction, while still being in range of the nearest Telus cellular tower for 3G data Internet access. The latter was required in order to able to connect to the Monero network to complete the transaction.

Edit 1: With respect this meets the classic Canadian stereotype of people who live in Toronto, ON, They believe that the rest of the Canadian population are hewers of wood and drawers of water. This been especially the case in places such as Quesnel, BC and Prince George, BC. Oops is an understatement here.  

Edit 2: A Search for Prince George on BCT would have provided the following red flag;

Why do you not simply argue that Moenro's POW is unfair because it discriminates against Americans in favor of Canadians? Furthermore even within the same Canadian province there is also discrimination since those who live in Prince George BC like myself, have an unfair advantage over those who live in Victoria BC. As for those who live in any part of Africa they are really discriminated against. Then there is also religions discrimination. The economics of mining Monero are very different in say Vatican City and Makkah. Jerusalem is somewhere in between.

[cryptimus prime]

As of writing, I’m not aware of any efforts to independently audit the deterministic build process used to create the compute node DVDs that every participant in the trusted setup used. This means there’s a massive single point of failure in the whole process that completely undermines the value of the multi-party computation.

Until the software and deterministic builds are audited, the entire ceremony is a bunch of crypto hocus pocus.

All emphasis original.

All participants of the ceremony had to use of course the same DVD for the setup of Zcash, this makes the whole paranoid process around it completely needless, as it would be enough just to compromise the DVD. The technology of Zcash is hocus pocus I would not feel safe having my money in Zcash.

But perhaps we should post this information on the Zcash forum threads and not XMR.

[kurious]

If we get 100 USD XMR we would be looking at a fundamentally very different situation from now since that would place the market capitalization of Monero at over 1.3 Billion USD with Monero in second place behind Bitcoin. That means for example the major Bitcoin / fiat exchanges, Bitcoin payment processors etc will no longer be able to ignore Monero.  

I must admit, I cannot see why other exchanges, given the volume Monero has in BTC on Polo, have not already listed Monero.

Is being 'truly private money' actually an issue for exchanges, or just the GUI - surely they would want the business? At some point they must take it on - but do we really have to wait until over a billion USD market cap for it to be a no-brainer?

[GingerAle]

If we get 100 USD XMR we would be looking at a fundamentally very different situation from now since that would place the market capitalization of Monero at over 1.3 Billion USD with Monero in second place behind Bitcoin. That means for example the major Bitcoin / fiat exchanges, Bitcoin payment processors etc will no longer be able to ignore Monero.  

I must admit, I cannot see why other exchanges, given the volume Monero has in BTC on Polo, have not already listed Monero.

Is being 'truly private money' actually an issue for exchanges, or just the GUI - surely they would want the business? At some point they must take it on - but do we really have to wait until over a billion USD market cap for it to be a no-brainer?

The best reasons that I've heard is.

1) Its difficult to integrate. Jaxx (a wallet / exchange service) has apparently put like 80% of its effort into integrating Monero over the past month or something, and its still pending.

2) Even after integration, its hard to pull the volume from the main exchange. Case in point, bittrex lists monero, and a new one (https://tuxexchange.com/) even had a free monero giveaway to attract users.  So after all the effort of integration, there's no guarantee that your exchange will reap the same rewards as Poloniex.

So I think it does have to be a much larger market cap, perhaps.

[medusa13]

Code:

0.0449%	3623.63513249	2-3 Days
0.0450%	0.83741892	2 Days
0.0450%	16651.64981782	2-10 Days

I hope whoever this is gets their account hacked.

becasue you are not happy with the rate or what exactly is it that makes you feel anger regarding the liquidity providers ? (besides apparent buthurt)

its probably mine so i take your talk personal.


are the bad bad shorters going to dump it ?  

[DaveyJones]

If we get 100 USD XMR we would be looking at a fundamentally very different situation from now since that would place the market capitalization of Monero at over 1.3 Billion USD with Monero in second place behind Bitcoin. That means for example the major Bitcoin / fiat exchanges, Bitcoin payment processors etc will no longer be able to ignore Monero.  

I must admit, I cannot see why other exchanges, given the volume Monero has in BTC on Polo, have not already listed Monero.

Is being 'truly private money' actually an issue for exchanges, or just the GUI - surely they would want the business? At some point they must take it on - but do we really have to wait until over a billion USD market cap for it to be a no-brainer?

The best reasons that I've heard is.

1) Its difficult to integrate. Jaxx (a wallet / exchange service) has apparently put like 80% of its effort into integrating Monero over the past month or something, and its still pending.

2) Even after integration, its hard to pull the volume from the main exchange. Case in point, bittrex lists monero, and a new one (https://tuxexchange.com/) even had a free monero giveaway to attract users.  So after all the effort of integration, there's no guarantee that your exchange will reap the same rewards as Poloniex.

So I think it does have to be a much larger market cap, perhaps.

Sure but i guess the only reason why Polo has such a massive % is that it allows the margin trading... and margin trading many coins, thats why you see the big volumes there... but there are also fiat exchanges that atleast offer margin for BTC... so maybe those could want a piece of the cake in the future

[kurious]

If we get 100 USD XMR we would be looking at a fundamentally very different situation from now since that would place the market capitalization of Monero at over 1.3 Billion USD with Monero in second place behind Bitcoin. That means for example the major Bitcoin / fiat exchanges, Bitcoin payment processors etc will no longer be able to ignore Monero.  

I must admit, I cannot see why other exchanges, given the volume Monero has in BTC on Polo, have not already listed Monero.

Is being 'truly private money' actually an issue for exchanges, or just the GUI - surely they would want the business? At some point they must take it on - but do we really have to wait until over a billion USD market cap for it to be a no-brainer?

The best reasons that I've heard is.

1) Its difficult to integrate. Jaxx (a wallet / exchange service) has apparently put like 80% of its effort into integrating Monero over the past month or something, and its still pending.

2) Even after integration, its hard to pull the volume from the main exchange. Case in point, bittrex lists monero, and a new one (https://tuxexchange.com/) even had a free monero giveaway to attract users.  So after all the effort of integration, there's no guarantee that your exchange will reap the same rewards as Poloniex.

So I think it does have to be a much larger market cap, perhaps.

You're probably right, but I am not sure if it's so much of a problem if Bittrex managed. That said, it doesn't do nearly as much volume on most coins, so yes, it wouldn't steal Polo business away so easily.

I can understand Jaxx having issues with wallet integration given how long it's taking for us to get a GUI out there ourselves. 

Maybe it's just 'bigger' (fiat) exchanges don't see it as an imperative yet - but the volume has been huge at times like up to 5 million a day at the end of Aug/ early Sept - which is not to be sniffed at. 

I am not arguing with your points so much as hopeful we see another decent exchange before too long. Let's see if the GUI makes us look more mature - maybe then I will have my wish come true

[CoinCidental]

If we get 100 USD XMR we would be looking at a fundamentally very different situation from now since that would place the market capitalization of Monero at over 1.3 Billion USD with Monero in second place behind Bitcoin. That means for example the major Bitcoin / fiat exchanges, Bitcoin payment processors etc will no longer be able to ignore Monero.  

I must admit, I cannot see why other exchanges, given the volume Monero has in BTC on Polo, have not already listed Monero.

Is being 'truly private money' actually an issue for exchanges, or just the GUI - surely they would want the business? At some point they must take it on - but do we really have to wait until over a billion USD market cap for it to be a no-brainer?

The best reasons that I've heard is.

1) Its difficult to integrate. Jaxx (a wallet / exchange service) has apparently put like 80% of its effort into integrating Monero over the past month or something, and its still pending.

2) Even after integration, its hard to pull the volume from the main exchange. Case in point, bittrex lists monero, and a new one (https://tuxexchange.com/) even had a free monero giveaway to attract users.  So after all the effort of integration, there's no guarantee that your exchange will reap the same rewards as Poloniex.

So I think it does have to be a much larger market cap, perhaps.

For number 2 on your list I think I can view from experience..... People simply don't want to use the small obscure exchanges for lots of reasons....

They're is barely no liquidity for serious trade to be done by people who are playing with  $100k+ so the pool needs to be a few  millions deep already before the whales can swim....so you have a chicken and the egg problem

Also ,serious risk of being goxxed is a major factor in whether to trade small exchanges or not... You can never be sure the owner won't fake a hack job (bfx style)  and so to trade there the risks often outweigh the potential rewards...

Of course, these places are often based in areas where they are no laws in place or recourse for possible thefts etc and then you see why people tend to use the larger exchanges

[Globb0]

Also ,serious risk of being goxxed is a major factor in whether to trade small exchanges or not... You can never be sure the owner won't fake a hack job (bfx style)  and so to trade there the risks often outweigh the potential rewards...

So true, still smarting from my few btc lost at ShareX exit scam

[daneranon89]

The other good news are also BitcoinMeister is speaking about xmr.
Bear in mind, last time he became interested the price rose from 1 usd or so 14 usd or so.
If XMR does the same thing also this time, we should be looking at 100 usd XMR. But it is adviced to be cautious and not to go all in XMR.

Steady on, TC...

Anything is possible, but let's be sure we're out of the bear market first?   Breaking 0.012 and staying over it as a level needs to happen.  Then we can look at getting to $10 - but I don't think we will get anywhere close to even the ATH level until Spring (unless the GUI is out very soon, BTC stays flat or drifts and we are very lucky) let alone $100.

The GUI will encourage more people to buy, suck money off-exchange (leaving less for immediate sale) so a spike then is more likely but a real new climb to above the last ATH needs time and events conspiring for us. 

A steady XMR might prove better for adoption - and we need that base to build from.

So, maybe save your $100 predictions for now, please?

I used to avoid XMR and now I decided to have XMR in my portfolio. I bought some XMR and planning to hold them for a year or two and see how it's price is going to move. I think XMR will go north and I have also got into mining XMR in Eobot. I guess  CPU mining is out of luck now.

[Globb0]

These 2 walls are closing in

[sidhujag]

Zcash + syscoin together.. real decentralized marketplace with real anon... how will xmr react? Stay tuned...

[medusa13]

Zcash + syscoin together.. real decentralized marketplace with real anon... how will xmr react? Stay tuned...

sounds promising im tuned 

syscoin

[kenscho]

buy now or wait?

[Hueristic]

If we get 100 USD XMR we would be looking at a fundamentally very different situation from now since that would place the market capitalization of Monero at over 1.3 Billion USD with Monero in second place behind Bitcoin. That means for example the major Bitcoin / fiat exchanges, Bitcoin payment processors etc will no longer be able to ignore Monero.  

I must admit, I cannot see why other exchanges, given the volume Monero has in BTC on Polo, have not already listed Monero.

Is being 'truly private money' actually an issue for exchanges, or just the GUI - surely they would want the business? At some point they must take it on - but do we really have to wait until over a billion USD market cap for it to be a no-brainer?

The best reasons that I've heard is.

1) Its difficult to integrate. Jaxx (a wallet / exchange service) has apparently put like 80% of its effort into integrating Monero over the past month or something, and its still pending.

2) Even after integration, its hard to pull the volume from the main exchange. Case in point, bittrex lists monero, and a new one (https://tuxexchange.com/) even had a free monero giveaway to attract users.  So after all the effort of integration, there's no guarantee that your exchange will reap the same rewards as Poloniex.

So I think it does have to be a much larger market cap, perhaps.

I would postulate that there is low liquidity on those that have added it therefore other exchanges are not incentivized.

Code:

0.0449%	3623.63513249	2-3 Days
0.0450%	0.83741892	2 Days
0.0450%	16651.64981782	2-10 Days

I hope whoever this is gets their account hacked.

becasue you are not happy with the rate or what exactly is it that makes you feel anger regarding the liquidity providers ? (besides apparent buthurt)

its probably mine so i take your talk personal.


are the bad bad shorters going to dump it ? 

I can't get butthurt I have nothing but dust. I'm pissed that those loans protect shorters and hurt the ecosystem.