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[nhando]

Nice to see that 2nd block finally.
...

The simple fact is that you cannot hop to increase profit.
If you make more, it's purely luck, there is no special strategy to make more. It's not possible.

Hopping has the expected effect of, long term getting the same reward ratio as not hopping.
Simply put, as the block stats show, you run long term, you expect to do OK.
However, if you randomly mine on and off then your reward ratio has MUCH higher variance.
Sometimes that's a profit and sometimes that's a loss.
In both cases, it's way more obvious since ... that's called higher variance

--

Also, anyone paying attention to the last 5, 10, 25 block stats, and making judgements based on them, means you don't understand statistics.
A simple thing to consider is:

Code:

0.86466471676339  200.000%  1 in 7.4
0.63212055882856  100.000%  1 in 2.7
0.95021293163214  300.000%  1 in 20.1

i.e. we expect, at 30PHs, to get, on average, a 200% or LONGER block almost every second day ... ... ... ...
(30PHs = average ~7.3 blocks in 2 days)
If that happened, as expected, that would mean we'd have a GOOD 100% expected long term block average.

But the 2nd number also says, we expect on average, almost 2/3 of blocks under 100% and ~1/3 of blocks over 100%
Yep a bit over 1/3 of ALL blocks are expected, on average, to be over 100%

How about a 300% block? Statistically we expect, on average, one about every 5.5 days, i.e. yep! a bit more than once a week.

These numbers should make it quite clear why hopping has such high variance.
You pick a single day to mine that gets a 300% block and bam - you suddenly have a low chance of getting a positive return ... but that's expected to happen, on average, about every 5.5 days ...

My point exactly.  People here seems to think that big hoppers are milking the system and are taking away from them, it's quite the opposite.  Short term hoppers most often are the ones paying into the system.   The people who stay usually have more to gain from it, as you can see from my examples.  I'm a gambler so I just do things differently.  =)  That 4th block was definitely totally unexpected and is helping my bleeding. 

[sorry2xs]

It is hard for the average miner to comprehend the logistics of a  1000 miner hardware to set up.

[exstasie]

Well, after someone (else) having discussions with Gavin regarding pushing SPV mining in Classic and him saying he will continue to do that ... I guess at least where I stand on that issue is clear.

I certainly have no interest in pushing SPV mining thus none in pushing Classic.
If it happens to unexpectedly get concensus, then we'll obviously switch.
Until then, no block flagging for Classic.

When you say consensus, what do you mean? Actual consensus (approaching 100%?) or Classic's 75%?

[kano]

Well, after someone (else) having discussions with Gavin regarding pushing SPV mining in Classic and him saying he will continue to do that ... I guess at least where I stand on that issue is clear.

I certainly have no interest in pushing SPV mining thus none in pushing Classic.
If it happens to unexpectedly get concensus, then we'll obviously switch.
Until then, no block flagging for Classic.

When you say consensus, what do you mean? Actual consensus (approaching 100%?) or Classic's 75%?

Here, I'll throw you a future prediction from a crystal ball that I bet is correct
There won't be a fork of bitcoin core where both sides of the fork are large - it will be just the left-overs, who will switch soon after, that were too slow to do it.

At some point it will become necessary to support some changes since they will represent what all the main pools and exchanges will end up using.
At that point we don't want to be mining blocks that are worthless, so we'll switch to that.
When that point is? No idea, coz yeah who knows what 'consensus' actually means vs what satoshi said in his design
I'd certainly prefer a 95% consensus and not a crappy low level 75% consensus like BIP101 tried to use to force their changes ... and failed - yay.

Seems classic is trying the same thing? ... well, will have to wait and see, I'm not saying what will happen here at this point while everything is far from being decided.

Also, we're still only ~3% of bitcoin.
If we were 10% then indeed we'd need to be way more active in our dealing with where we are going.

[Legacy2005]

thanks Jmww for the double block. provided a good start to the day.


Kano: whats the contest looking like for april? a copy of march or something new?

[clgrissom3]

My point exactly.  People here seems to think that big hoppers are milking the system and are taking away from them, it's quite the opposite.  Short term hoppers most often are the ones paying into the system.   The people who stay usually have more to gain from it, as you can see from my examples.  I'm a gambler so I just do things differently.  =)  That 4th block was definitely totally unexpected and is helping my bleeding. 

I think you missed the point...no one thinks you are milking the system.  You are doing us all a great service by pointing your considerable hash here.  I think you are losing money in the long run by hopping back and forth and the frustration for those of us that don't hopity-hop is seeing the 2-4PH drop after a block or in the middle of a slow spell.  A drop of that size for a day or two is most certainly costing the collective us a block or 2 every once in a while (statistically) and we smaller guys depend on those extra blocks to help keep us caught up because of the smaller per block payouts.  I'd bet you would see your profits be higher simply by staying put right here for a 6-12 month stretch but since there is no real way to test it you will never believe it.  You say you are a gambler so why not take a gamble by keep half your hash here nonstop for 6 months and do your normal thing with the other half.  Then you would see which works better...and you could tell us all "I told you so" if you were right! 

[zOU]

Block !!

12TMhCpLtAWNk8NiWDQ2FDxc9QYvUKWKVy is on fire !


Go on guys ! keep up the good work !

[firetreeactual]

My point exactly.  People here seems to think that big hoppers are milking the system and are taking away from them, it's quite the opposite.  Short term hoppers most often are the ones paying into the system.   The people who stay usually have more to gain from it, as you can see from my examples.  I'm a gambler so I just do things differently.  =)  That 4th block was definitely totally unexpected and is helping my bleeding. 

I think you missed the point...no one thinks you are milking the system.  You are doing us all a great service by pointing your considerable hash here.  I think you are losing money in the long run by hopping back and forth and the frustration for those of us that don't hopity-hop is seeing the 2-4PH drop after a block or in the middle of a slow spell.  A drop of that size for a day or two is most certainly costing the collective us a block or 2 every once in a while (statistically) and we smaller guys depend on those extra blocks to help keep us caught up because of the smaller per block payouts.  I'd bet you would see your profits be higher simply by staying put right here for a 6-12 month stretch but since there is no real way to test it you will never believe it.  You say you are a gambler so why not take a gamble by keep half your hash here nonstop for 6 months and do your normal thing with the other half.  Then you would see which works better...and you could tell us all "I told you so" if you were right! 

Agreed. You're welcome here, nhando, your commentary is generally right on and valuable, and if it's of any value, I've done longer-term comparisons (on a much smaller scale, to be sure) that have proven to my feeble, retired forensic scientist brain that I get better rewards here...and a whole lot less agony over WTF is going on. Having this degree of transparency, combined with Kano and -ck's skill sets, keeps my blood pressure normal and my anxiety down (and I learn a helluva lot). Stick around. It's gonna be a good ride, Bunkie... 

[kspare]

Just a quick update of my test as my miners start to normalize here.

My 2 miners on antpool are doing approx .0470btc per 24 hours.
My 2 miners on ck are averaging 9.45THs and getting about .008BTC per block.

I need kano to find approx 5.875 blocks per 24 hour period to make what I make on antminer.

I've only been back on antmine for about 2 full days, and I was on ck for about a week.

We'll see if there is anymore normalization to be had after another week or so.

[exstasie]

Seems classic is trying the same thing? ... well, will have to wait and see, I'm not saying what will happen here at this point while everything is far from being decided.

Also, we're still only ~3% of bitcoin.
If we were 10% then indeed we'd need to be way more active in our dealing with where we are going.

On the bolded -- yeah, that's why I ask.

It seems very, very unlikely that either Bitfury or BTCC will ever support an adversarial client that forks from Core. So 3% may be enough to save us from the drama of Classic forking off without reaching agreement among miners (let alone users "upgrading" to the "new" network).

[zOU]

Just a quick update of my test as my miners start to normalize here.

My 2 miners on antpool are doing approx .0470btc per 24 hours.
My 2 miners on ck are averaging 9.45THs and getting about .008BTC per block.

I need kano to find approx 5.875 blocks per 24 hour period to make what I make on antminer.

I've only been back on antmine for about 2 full days, and I was on ck for about a week.

We'll see if there is anymore normalization to be had after another week or so.

errr....

https://blockchain.info/pools

Antpool is 29% of total hasrate, Kano is 3%.
Antppol: 318.77 PH/s
kano.is:  32Ph/s

So of course you're going to make (on average) 10x more the same on antpool. (except that antpool has higher fees....) <<== edited this part to correct. see next page

But: do you trust them ? Do they inform you as transparently as kano regarding what happens ?
Are you sure you're getting your fair share of BTC ?

[jonnybravo0311]

So of course you're going to make (on average) 10x more on antpool. (except that antpool has higher fees....)

Ummm... that is completely incorrect.  You absolutely, 100% do NOT make 10 times more on average on AntPool just because they have 10x the hash rate as kano.

[Alehandros]

Just a quick update of my test as my miners start to normalize here.

My 2 miners on antpool are doing approx .0470btc per 24 hours.
My 2 miners on ck are averaging 9.45THs and getting about .008BTC per block.

I need kano to find approx 5.875 blocks per 24 hour period to make what I make on antminer.

I've only been back on antmine for about 2 full days, and I was on ck for about a week.

We'll see if there is anymore normalization to be had after another week or so.

I run 2x Antminers and whilst I agree with your ck-pool stats (once your 5Nd is up to speed), the Antpool ones seem a little high

[zOU]

So of course you're going to make (on average) 10x more on antpool. (except that antpool has higher fees....)

Ummm... that is completely incorrect.  You absolutely, 100% do NOT make 10 times more on average on AntPool just because they have 10x the hash rate as kano.

right, you're absolutely correct, I'll rephrase, antpool is 10 times more likely to find a block.

so if you point the same hashrate to both pools, each block found on antpool will get you 10 time less (318Phs vs 30Phs total, so your shares have 1/10 of the value they have on kano), but as you're likely to find 10x more block, on average, with the same luck, you'll make exactly the same on both pool

10x more payment, each payment 10x smaller on antpool than on kano.

Now if the total hasrate between the 2 pools was bigger than x10, being on antpool could make sense.... hashrate+payment wise.

my apologies for the post sent way too fast and absolutely incorrect.

This one may not be much better :p

[Legacy2005]

Just a quick update of my test as my miners start to normalize here.

My 2 miners on antpool are doing approx .0470btc per 24 hours.
My 2 miners on ck are averaging 9.45THs and getting about .008BTC per block.

I need kano to find approx 5.875 blocks per 24 hour period to make what I make on antminer.

I've only been back on antmine for about 2 full days, and I was on ck for about a week.

We'll see if there is anymore normalization to be had after another week or so.

errr....

https://blockchain.info/pools

Antpool is 29% of total hasrate, Kano is 3%.
Antppol: 318.77 PH/s
kano.is:  32Ph/s

So of course you're going to make (on average) 10x more on antpool. (except that antpool has higher fees....)

But: do you trust them ? Do they inform you as transparently as kano regarding what happens ?
Are you sure you're getting your fair share of BTC ?

Not only that but 1 week or 24hrs is way to short of a time period to validate any kind of comparison. you need to do at least 6 months. variance/luck can and will impact results if looked at for such a short time.

plus anthole is a cesspool, they dont share btc fees and only think in the manner what can increase their bottom line. and o ya.. they mine empty blocks.

[kspare]

I don't know yet. I'm doing this as an experiment for myself and to share what I learn.

I've got both depositing to separate wallets as well to see how that balances out.

I'm using PPLNS payouts on both pools....

it seems like antmine may payout more but it's REALLY early to see. I think I need to let it run like this for 2 weeks to let things balance out and see how it goes. can't really rush this lol

I *think* kano ahs the potential to pay out more, as long as luck is on their side, but antmine seems to be very flat with payouts. no more no less. kano can have lots of peaks and valleys. hence the need for an average.

[Alehandros]

I don't know yet. I'm doing this as an experiment for myself and to share what I learn.

I've got both depositing to separate wallets as well to see how that balances out.

I'm using PPLNS payouts on both pools....

it seems like antmine may payout more but it's REALLY early to see. I think I need to let it run like this for 2 weeks to let things balance out and see how it goes. can't really rush this lol

I *think* kano ahs the potential to pay out more, as long as luck is on their side, but antmine seems to be very flat with payouts. no more no less. kano can have lots of peaks and valleys. hence the need for an average.

Best I've personally *averaged* on Antpool is 0.03 BTC per day, don't know how you got more (0.038 BTC Personal Best)

Pains me to say it, but Antpool does have a nicer UI

[hawkfish007]

Just a quick update of my test as my miners start to normalize here.

My 2 miners on antpool are doing approx .0470btc per 24 hours.
My 2 miners on ck are averaging 9.45THs and getting about .008BTC per block.

I need kano to find approx 5.875 blocks per 24 hour period to make what I make on antminer.

I've only been back on antmine for about 2 full days, and I was on ck for about a week.

We'll see if there is anymore normalization to be had after another week or so.

errr....

https://blockchain.info/pools

Antpool is 29% of total hasrate, Kano is 3%.
Antppol: 318.77 PH/s
kano.is:  32Ph/s

So of course you're going to make (on average) 10x more on antpool. (except that antpool has higher fees....)

But: do you trust them ? Do they inform you as transparently as kano regarding what happens ?
Are you sure you're getting your fair share of BTC ?

Not only that but 1 week or 24hrs is way to short of a time period to validate any kind of comparison. you need to do at least 6 months. variance/luck can and will impact results if looked at for such a short time.

plus anthole is a cesspool, they dont share btc fees and only think in the manner what can increase their bottom line. and o ya.. they mine empty blocks.

I always see people are saying that antpool doesn't pay fees, but they do pay 25 full BTC to PPLNS miners. Here do we get ever get 25 BTC after paying .9% pool fees, even though this pool pays the transaction fees?

[kspare]

I guess what i'm hoping for, is to show that kano is the place to be, so others that are learning like I am don't have to try and figure it out on their own or go by here say. I'm just trying to gather some facts that hopefully are in favor of kano!

[Herv12]

I always see people are saying that antpool doesn't pay fees, but they do pay 25 full BTC to PPLNS miners. Here do we get ever get 25 BTC after paying .9% pool fees, even though this pool pays the transaction fees?

Yes, but average block Fee are generally greater than 0.9%, so it's at least same or even slightly better on Kano than antpool.