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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
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September 21, 2012, 04:05:42 PM |
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I missed updating the stats yesterday. Does anyone care? I've mostly been updating daily but will probably reduce the frequency of my updates unless anyone really wants daily posts. Results: 2012-Sep-21 09:02am (up to block 199857)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21333 | 0 (0.00000) | 20973 | 360 | 185.59 | 0.01 | 31.56 | 185.57 | 0.010 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1773 | 0 (0.00000) | 1700 | 73 | 24.85 | 0.00 | 6.88 | 24.84 | 0.007 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2364 | 0 (0.00000) | 2328 | 36 | 29.28 | 0.02 | 3.72 | 29.25 | 0.091 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2504 | 1 (0.00041) | 2459 | 44 | 51.73 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 43.66 | 15.588 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2529 | 1 (0.00040) | 2492 | 36 | 90.83 | 4.24 | 7.40 | 86.59 | 4.677 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5495 | 3 (0.00055) | 5480 | 12 | 380.39 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.06 | 79.740 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7870 | 8 (0.00102) | 7840 | 22 | 646.04 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 521.65 | 19.254 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10005 | 19 (0.00191) | 9931 | 55 | 1598.04 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 323.39 | 79.763 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9896 | 43 (0.00435) | 9839 | 14 | 1285.97 | 1302.33 | 13.11 | -16.36 | 101.272 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15162 | 116 (0.00766) | 15037 | 9 | 2646.01 | 2009.82 | 9.35 | 636.19 | 75.957 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 28997 | 434 (0.01497) | 28551 | 12 | 8296.20 | 7686.62 | 1.80 | 609.58 | 92.652 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15029 | 343 (0.02283) | 14680 | 6 | 4698.85 | 4858.79 | 15.00 | -159.94 | 103.404 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22553 | 697 (0.03091) | 21852 | 4 | 5480.46 | 4645.11 | 9.24 | 835.35 | 84.758 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15176 | 699 (0.04608) | 14469 | 8 | 6779.52 | 8058.47 | 24.99 | -1278.95 | 118.865 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15780 | 977 (0.06193) | 14799 | 4 | 4639.17 | 4117.14 | 31.20 | 522.02 | 88.748 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 20938 | 1963 (0.09383) | 18957 | 18 | 9995.21 | 9892.00 | 7.01 | 103.21 | 98.967 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 82958 | 10201 (0.12300) | 72735 | 22 | 10138.46 | 8699.54 | 0.00 | 1438.91 | 85.807 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 20925 | 3924 (0.18764) | 16988 | 13 | 8186.12 | 8371.07 | 14.50 | -184.95 | 102.259 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 79884 | 19438 (0.24340) | 60423 | 23 | 47749.73 | 46391.37 | 347.79 | 1358.35 | 97.155 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 59983 | 22015 (0.36730) | 37923 | 45 | 29279.50 | 28549.75 | 212.64 | 729.75 | 97.508 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 516826 | 251983 (0.48796) | 264416 | 427 | 311961.81 | 310733.10 | 2173.40 | 1228.70 | 99.606 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 192115 | 95718 (0.49867) | 96230 | 167 | 185752.15 | 184609.12 | 1295.21 | 1143.02 | 99.385 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 149285 | 109818 (0.73600) | 39392 | 75 | 143927.70 | 141561.27 | 467.98 | 2366.42 | 98.356 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 11816 | 9387 (0.79490) | 2422 | 7 | 20251.96 | 20147.49 | 400.00 | 104.46 | 99.484 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11256 | 9628 (0.85696) | 1607 | 21 | 11038.72 | 10818.42 | 400.00 | 220.30 | 98.004 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5474 | 5009 (0.91622) | 458 | 7 | 9670.12 | 9590.18 | 0.00 | 79.94 | 99.173 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7562 | 7274 (0.97993) | 149 | 139 | 16276.39 | 15998.77 | 239.21 | 277.62 | 98.294 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1290838 | 527194 | 762194 | 1450 | 322858.07 | 314067.43 | 145.59 | 8790.63 | 97.277 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 44650 | 22505 | 21936 | 209 | 518202.84 | 515687.74 | 5673.35 | 2515.10 | 99.515 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1335488 | 549699 | 784130 | 1659 | 841060.92 | 829755.18 | 5818.95 | 11305.74 | 98.656 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 11305.74431106 BTC (1.344%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 672.77172500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 10632.97258606 BTC (1.264%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 4411969 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2475751 (56.1%) Blockchain MB: 1827.6 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1011.4 (55.3%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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SNS
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September 21, 2012, 04:28:29 PM |
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Yes, everyday I check your updates. This is very useful information for investors and for SD players!
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ingrownpocket
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 952
Merit: 1000
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September 21, 2012, 05:30:19 PM |
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Yes, everyday I check your updates. This is very useful information for investors and for SD players!
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Fizzgig
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September 21, 2012, 06:38:56 PM |
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I check several times daily.
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Best Bitcoin supported browser game: Minethings: Dig, Trade, and Fight your way to influence!
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Bugpowder
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September 21, 2012, 07:32:53 PM |
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I also check multiple times a day. It's my favorite thread on bitcointalk.
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BlueCombWindow
Newbie
Offline
Activity: 33
Merit: 0
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September 21, 2012, 08:54:50 PM |
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I visit this thread regularly.
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nibor
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September 21, 2012, 09:27:28 PM |
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Do you not have a machine to run script on every day and just upload to Amazon S3 or something? That is all bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk does.
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
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September 22, 2012, 12:21:16 AM |
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Do you not have a machine to run script on every day and just upload to Amazon S3 or something? That is all bitcoinstatus.rowit.co.uk does.
I don't. But I'll get one. Good idea.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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nameface
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September 22, 2012, 08:23:24 PM |
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Yes, everyday I check your updates. This is very useful information for investors and for SD players!
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
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September 23, 2012, 03:26:38 AM |
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Results: 2012-Sep-22 08:24pm (up to block 200093)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21475 | 0 (0.00000) | 21114 | 361 | 187.30 | 0.01 | 32.06 | 187.28 | 0.010 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1779 | 0 (0.00000) | 1705 | 74 | 24.87 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 24.87 | 0.007 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2373 | 0 (0.00000) | 2336 | 37 | 29.90 | 0.02 | 4.22 | 29.87 | 0.094 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2509 | 1 (0.00041) | 2464 | 44 | 52.18 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 44.11 | 15.457 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2536 | 1 (0.00040) | 2499 | 36 | 91.60 | 4.25 | 7.40 | 87.35 | 4.640 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5503 | 3 (0.00055) | 5488 | 12 | 380.86 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.53 | 79.642 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7884 | 8 (0.00102) | 7854 | 22 | 646.95 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.55 | 19.228 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10025 | 19 (0.00191) | 9950 | 56 | 1598.47 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 323.83 | 79.741 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9907 | 43 (0.00435) | 9850 | 14 | 1286.44 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -15.89 | 101.235 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15198 | 116 (0.00764) | 15073 | 9 | 2650.81 | 2009.84 | 9.35 | 640.97 | 75.820 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 29217 | 434 (0.01486) | 28771 | 12 | 8309.92 | 7686.62 | 1.80 | 623.30 | 92.499 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15045 | 343 (0.02281) | 14696 | 6 | 4701.15 | 4858.80 | 15.00 | -157.64 | 103.353 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22610 | 698 (0.03088) | 21908 | 4 | 5481.89 | 4645.75 | 9.24 | 836.14 | 84.747 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15201 | 701 (0.04614) | 14492 | 8 | 6793.54 | 8063.01 | 24.99 | -1269.46 | 118.686 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15817 | 979 (0.06191) | 14834 | 4 | 4641.38 | 4118.99 | 31.20 | 522.38 | 88.745 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 20992 | 1969 (0.09388) | 19005 | 18 | 10022.88 | 9962.58 | 7.01 | 60.29 | 99.398 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 83399 | 10258 (0.12303) | 73118 | 23 | 10247.56 | 8824.69 | 0.00 | 1422.87 | 86.115 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 20995 | 3934 (0.18749) | 17048 | 13 | 8211.54 | 8409.83 | 14.50 | -198.28 | 102.415 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 80627 | 19635 (0.24360) | 60969 | 23 | 48024.73 | 46831.00 | 347.79 | 1193.72 | 97.514 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 60220 | 22099 (0.36725) | 38076 | 45 | 29692.01 | 28915.74 | 212.64 | 776.27 | 97.386 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 521976 | 254445 (0.48787) | 267102 | 429 | 315516.70 | 314027.34 | 2173.41 | 1489.36 | 99.528 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 192911 | 96141 (0.49880) | 96602 | 168 | 186326.39 | 185288.24 | 1295.21 | 1038.14 | 99.443 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 150014 | 110349 (0.73596) | 39590 | 75 | 147575.30 | 145612.95 | 467.98 | 1962.35 | 98.670 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 11961 | 9504 (0.79505) | 2450 | 7 | 20362.73 | 20256.71 | 400.00 | 106.02 | 99.479 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11323 | 9684 (0.85684) | 1618 | 21 | 11150.91 | 10886.44 | 400.00 | 264.47 | 97.628 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5541 | 5069 (0.91597) | 465 | 7 | 9823.74 | 9751.33 | 0.00 | 72.40 | 99.263 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7594 | 7305 (0.97988) | 150 | 139 | 16307.07 | 16029.29 | 239.21 | 277.77 | 98.297 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1299641 | 531048 | 767135 | 1458 | 325637.62 | 316755.91 | 147.09 | 8881.70 | 97.273 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 44991 | 22690 | 22092 | 209 | 524501.34 | 522440.37 | 5673.35 | 2060.97 | 99.607 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1344632 | 553738 | 789227 | 1667 | 850138.96 | 839196.28 | 5820.45 | 10942.67 | 98.713 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 10942.67748855 BTC (1.287%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 677.39140000 BTC SD Profit after fees: 10265.28608855 BTC (1.207%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 4446310 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2492604 (56.1%) Blockchain MB: 1843.5 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1018.5 (55.2%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Mike Hearn
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1526
Merit: 1129
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September 23, 2012, 12:31:13 PM |
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Have you tried monitoring their progressive games with the SNS signature trick, to see if they're being honest?
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
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September 24, 2012, 04:26:11 AM |
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Have you tried monitoring their progressive games with the SNS signature trick, to see if they're being honest?
I've not. I looked at the progressive games when they were first introduced, and saw that the way they worked meant that sometimes they were incredibly worth playing. After making a nice profit playing them at the right time the rules were changed. Now they're almost never worth playing. The expected return is horrible. As a result almost nobody plays them, so I decided just to ignore them. Look at the current progressive pot. I have a 0.02596% chance of turning 0.25 BTC into 626.0639 BTC. That's a 1 in 3852 chance of multiplying my stake by 2504. Or in other words a 65% expected return. >>> 100 * 626.0639 / 0.25 / (100 / 0.02596) 65.010475376 I expect they're being honest though. At those odds why would they need to cheat? Edit: this game did puzzle me for a while though. They claim to only take a 2% cut from the progressive games - each time the pot is won, they take their small cut, give 65% to the player, and leave the rest in the pot for the next winner. So if the players are getting a 65% return, and the house is only taking 2%, where does the rest go? To simplify the game, consider these rules: * you're the only person playing * each turn costs 1 BTC * when you win, you win the whole pot * when you lose, your whole bet gets added to the pot * each time you bet, your odds of winning are 1 in (pot * 10) So * each bet has an expected return of 10%, or 0.1 BTC (you're betting 1 BTC to win 'pot' BTC, with a 1-in-(pot*10) chance of winning) * but eventually you win, and get all your money back - doesn't this imply your expected return of 100% in the long term? These two contradict each other - the return can't be 10% each bet, and 100% in the long term. I think the way I eventually resolved the contradiction is that "eventually you win" isn't true. You might give up before you win. In that case the house gets to keep the whole pot. And the same applies in the SD progressive game, I think. They only take 2% if the pot is won, but it's quite likely that the pot won't ever be won, in which case they keep everything.
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
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September 24, 2012, 04:49:57 AM |
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Results: 2012-Sep-23 09:47pm (up to block 200255)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21558 | 0 (0.00000) | 21197 | 361 | 190.19 | 0.01 | 32.06 | 190.17 | 0.010 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1786 | 0 (0.00000) | 1712 | 74 | 25.28 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.28 | 0.007 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2374 | 0 (0.00000) | 2337 | 37 | 29.90 | 0.02 | 4.22 | 29.87 | 0.094 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2511 | 1 (0.00041) | 2466 | 44 | 52.19 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 44.12 | 15.453 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2560 | 1 (0.00040) | 2523 | 36 | 94.69 | 4.25 | 7.40 | 90.43 | 4.497 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5503 | 3 (0.00055) | 5488 | 12 | 380.86 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.53 | 79.642 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7888 | 8 (0.00102) | 7858 | 22 | 646.97 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.58 | 19.227 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10032 | 19 (0.00190) | 9957 | 56 | 1598.53 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 323.88 | 79.739 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9910 | 43 (0.00435) | 9853 | 14 | 1288.06 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.27 | 101.109 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15209 | 116 (0.00763) | 15084 | 9 | 2650.95 | 2009.84 | 9.35 | 641.11 | 75.816 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30041 | 449 (0.01495) | 29580 | 12 | 8321.87 | 7700.04 | 1.80 | 621.83 | 92.528 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15049 | 344 (0.02287) | 14699 | 6 | 4701.20 | 4858.84 | 15.00 | -157.64 | 103.353 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22624 | 698 (0.03086) | 21922 | 4 | 5482.03 | 4645.75 | 9.24 | 836.28 | 84.745 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15247 | 702 (0.04607) | 14537 | 8 | 6794.75 | 8065.14 | 24.99 | -1270.38 | 118.697 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15846 | 980 (0.06186) | 14862 | 4 | 4644.35 | 4120.91 | 31.20 | 523.43 | 88.730 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21018 | 1970 (0.09381) | 19030 | 18 | 10026.55 | 9963.02 | 7.01 | 63.53 | 99.366 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 84424 | 10392 (0.12313) | 74009 | 23 | 10338.29 | 8936.32 | 0.00 | 1401.96 | 86.439 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21028 | 3944 (0.18768) | 17071 | 13 | 8216.92 | 8413.58 | 14.50 | -196.65 | 102.393 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 82619 | 20130 (0.24372) | 62466 | 23 | 49438.90 | 48380.01 | 347.79 | 1058.88 | 97.858 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 60385 | 22164 (0.36732) | 38176 | 45 | 29746.72 | 28983.98 | 212.64 | 762.74 | 97.436 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 526137 | 256545 (0.48800) | 269163 | 429 | 316854.21 | 315488.41 | 2173.41 | 1365.79 | 99.569 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 194045 | 96699 (0.49880) | 97164 | 182 | 188426.43 | 186761.00 | 1295.22 | 1665.42 | 99.116 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 150649 | 110802 (0.73587) | 39770 | 77 | 152861.37 | 150462.54 | 467.98 | 2398.83 | 98.431 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12153 | 9663 (0.79557) | 2483 | 7 | 20885.33 | 20865.38 | 400.00 | 19.94 | 99.904 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11444 | 9789 (0.85696) | 1634 | 21 | 11211.26 | 10950.07 | 400.00 | 261.19 | 97.670 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5573 | 5097 (0.91574) | 469 | 7 | 9834.99 | 9762.19 | 0.00 | 72.79 | 99.260 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7599 | 7310 (0.97989) | 150 | 139 | 16307.59 | 16029.82 | 239.21 | 277.77 | 98.297 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1309883 | 534990 | 773419 | 1474 | 328052.51 | 319164.21 | 147.10 | 8888.29 | 97.291 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45329 | 22879 | 22241 | 209 | 532997.99 | 530249.80 | 5673.35 | 2748.18 | 99.484 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1355212 | 557869 | 795660 | 1683 | 861050.50 | 849414.01 | 5820.46 | 11636.48 | 98.649 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 11636.48912696 BTC (1.351%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 682.72930000 BTC SD Profit after fees: 10953.75982696 BTC (1.272%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 4476982 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2510589 (56.1%) Blockchain MB: 1856.9 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1026.1 (55.3%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
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September 24, 2012, 04:59:42 AM |
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I looked into the recent profits for SD. It doesn't look like a martingale series - it's mostly someone (or maybe 2 people) making a bunch of large <48000 bets and having a run of bad luck: Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 41c74bcd163391409301acf1e0ccf701f24877be2a12d30d2eb69daa985b5396 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET 250.00000000 WIN 84.39083333 Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 499ebca078d841cf4f1b751d298c0a4b9a93697481cb12a71d0e32b1fccae59d 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET 113.00000000 WIN 38.14438266 Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 db1c668dd580318070a9490fabf4485b34af55ce71f0316e04fad2d9046fbd87 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 80.00000000 WIN 27.00472666 Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 9343ed1359217dffc93a06c1f8ed6b973edb70622f8f5500b9af381e29639f66 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 100.00000000 WIN 33.75603333 Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 dafd962e26e16650da9aa60f9edb46d5529e06912e39b9d19a95189a848b132d 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 142.00000000 WIN 47.93377733 Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 58fad4d8d35d348bbbc0bcd172cf51892936b9977a66f81aa43c60960fb66b86 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 190.00000000 WIN 64.13691333 Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 3e92f6bb0b437e880baf6c9c797506cf6a919619954c4841256b115b6227ac74 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 250.00000000 LOSE -248.75050000 Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 8e7271e75e0a815f28c410a8792490fc09f63c29d481593fcc7e2b9a99d39c1b 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 100.00000000 WIN 33.75603333 Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 d00f27c4aa977163487eba2a4fd6f943bed22b9da1055f97e12c78272209a20b 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 250.00000000 LOSE -248.75050000 Sun Sep 23 18:46:02 2012 <48000 b200197 31374a58cc0514fb8dc4cbaa28ccfd3b23d3594e2bd9963c4a1732f0aed5e8ee 0 12CF6mbr8oXXbNAdhYYTkRKTenLwoQuafQ BET 241.00000000 LOSE -239.79550000 Sun Sep 23 18:57:07 2012 <32768 b200198 c08b14f2a47dfe1f625667c2618cb4cba6205960a0146cc1cadb3190bd847a35 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET 250.00000000 LOSE -248.75050000 Sun Sep 23 18:57:07 2012 <32768 b200198 131ac681d069314099722a3277beef79196d6d685e5c2628dc4b14d9634dd6f8 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET 151.00000000 LOSE -150.24550000 Mon Sep 24 02:52:05 2012 <48000 b200249 73450a6a86c84bce8a352c6d01b606abd832e44800e1ecd283cf48230c4fafa1 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET 86.53000000 WIN 29.20902829 Mon Sep 24 03:11:30 2012 <48000 b200250 b67db3417755f8d574b81065e6c77ea2283921b8250b3964e2b2e2bffca087f3 0 179FJL3tzRXMkKUfD1iCkYkR91vH4Rk8Qz BET 115.70000000 LOSE -115.12200000
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
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September 24, 2012, 06:49:50 PM |
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Results: 2012-Sep-24 11:48am (up to block 200351)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21575 | 0 (0.00000) | 21213 | 362 | 190.53 | 0.01 | 32.06 | 190.51 | 0.010 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1787 | 0 (0.00000) | 1713 | 74 | 25.28 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.28 | 0.007 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2375 | 0 (0.00000) | 2338 | 37 | 29.90 | 0.02 | 4.22 | 29.87 | 0.094 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2512 | 1 (0.00041) | 2467 | 44 | 52.20 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 44.13 | 15.451 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2560 | 1 (0.00040) | 2523 | 36 | 94.69 | 4.25 | 7.40 | 90.43 | 4.497 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5503 | 3 (0.00055) | 5488 | 12 | 380.86 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.53 | 79.642 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7888 | 8 (0.00102) | 7858 | 22 | 646.97 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.58 | 19.227 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10039 | 19 (0.00190) | 9964 | 56 | 1598.64 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 323.99 | 79.733 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9910 | 43 (0.00435) | 9853 | 14 | 1288.06 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.27 | 101.109 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15210 | 116 (0.00763) | 15085 | 9 | 2650.95 | 2009.84 | 9.35 | 641.11 | 75.816 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30178 | 449 (0.01488) | 29717 | 12 | 8325.83 | 7700.04 | 1.80 | 625.79 | 92.484 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15052 | 344 (0.02286) | 14702 | 6 | 4701.37 | 4858.84 | 15.00 | -157.46 | 103.349 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22659 | 699 (0.03085) | 21956 | 4 | 5483.76 | 4646.71 | 9.24 | 837.04 | 84.736 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15273 | 702 (0.04599) | 14563 | 8 | 6795.37 | 8065.14 | 24.99 | -1269.77 | 118.686 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15859 | 981 (0.06187) | 14874 | 4 | 4644.66 | 4121.07 | 31.20 | 523.59 | 88.727 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21060 | 1972 (0.09372) | 19070 | 18 | 10029.58 | 9967.08 | 7.01 | 62.50 | 99.377 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 84602 | 10411 (0.12309) | 74168 | 23 | 10348.87 | 8942.19 | 0.00 | 1406.67 | 86.407 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21035 | 3947 (0.18776) | 17075 | 13 | 8218.93 | 8418.93 | 14.50 | -200.00 | 102.433 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 83064 | 20233 (0.24365) | 62808 | 23 | 49522.04 | 48450.32 | 347.79 | 1071.71 | 97.836 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 60746 | 22292 (0.36724) | 38409 | 45 | 29892.85 | 29134.37 | 212.64 | 758.48 | 97.463 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 528699 | 257745 (0.48791) | 270517 | 437 | 317403.06 | 316040.32 | 2173.41 | 1362.74 | 99.571 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 194816 | 97086 (0.49882) | 97547 | 183 | 190121.85 | 187888.95 | 1295.22 | 2232.89 | 98.826 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 150818 | 110927 (0.73588) | 39814 | 77 | 153498.86 | 151267.40 | 467.98 | 2231.45 | 98.546 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12247 | 9739 (0.79567) | 2501 | 7 | 20989.49 | 20951.13 | 400.00 | 38.35 | 99.817 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11526 | 9859 (0.85693) | 1646 | 21 | 12150.76 | 12021.12 | 400.00 | 129.63 | 98.933 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5579 | 5102 (0.91565) | 470 | 7 | 9847.91 | 9776.02 | 0.00 | 71.89 | 99.270 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7603 | 7314 (0.97990) | 150 | 139 | 16308.70 | 16030.93 | 239.21 | 277.77 | 98.297 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1314776 | 537070 | 776222 | 1484 | 329034.51 | 320074.85 | 147.11 | 8959.66 | 97.277 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45399 | 22923 | 22267 | 209 | 536207.58 | 533232.72 | 5673.35 | 2974.86 | 99.445 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1360175 | 559993 | 798489 | 1693 | 865242.10 | 853307.57 | 5820.46 | 11934.52 | 98.621 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 11934.52699252 BTC (1.379%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 685.22687500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 11249.30011752 BTC (1.300%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 4494521 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2520228 (56.1%) Blockchain MB: 1864.3 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1030.1 (55.3%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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Jermainé
Member
Offline
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
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September 24, 2012, 07:04:56 PM |
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my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter. the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny
I tried it your way, 3 times. I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time. The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won. Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents. https://i.imgur.com/b0PNn.pngThe question is how many times can you make 17 bitcents in an hour? The question is how many times can you lose in a row and lose all your money. haha ikr? im currently down 30 BTC fml
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
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September 25, 2012, 05:29:39 PM |
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Results: 2012-Sep-25 10:27am (up to block 200493)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 21614 | 0 (0.00000) | 21251 | 363 | 191.04 | 0.01 | 32.16 | 191.02 | 0.010 1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 1788 | 0 (0.00000) | 1714 | 74 | 25.28 | 0.00 | 7.38 | 25.28 | 0.007 1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 2378 | 0 (0.00000) | 2341 | 37 | 29.91 | 0.02 | 4.22 | 29.88 | 0.094 1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 2514 | 1 (0.00040) | 2469 | 44 | 52.22 | 8.06 | 5.65 | 44.15 | 15.445 1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 2564 | 1 (0.00040) | 2527 | 36 | 95.14 | 4.25 | 7.40 | 90.88 | 4.477 1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 5504 | 3 (0.00055) | 5489 | 12 | 381.22 | 303.32 | 1.29 | 77.89 | 79.567 1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 7891 | 8 (0.00102) | 7861 | 22 | 646.98 | 124.39 | 55.64 | 522.59 | 19.227 1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 10047 | 19 (0.00190) | 9972 | 56 | 1598.66 | 1274.64 | 44.25 | 324.01 | 79.732 1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 9911 | 43 (0.00434) | 9854 | 14 | 1288.07 | 1302.34 | 13.11 | -14.27 | 101.108 1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 15215 | 116 (0.00763) | 15090 | 9 | 2650.96 | 2009.84 | 9.35 | 641.12 | 75.816 1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 30194 | 450 (0.01491) | 29732 | 12 | 8325.94 | 7700.68 | 1.80 | 625.25 | 92.490 1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 15056 | 344 (0.02286) | 14706 | 6 | 4701.45 | 4858.84 | 15.00 | -157.38 | 103.348 1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 22717 | 700 (0.03082) | 22013 | 4 | 5486.15 | 4647.35 | 9.24 | 838.79 | 84.711 1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 15293 | 704 (0.04606) | 14581 | 8 | 6795.96 | 8066.48 | 24.99 | -1270.52 | 118.695 1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 15871 | 984 (0.06202) | 14883 | 4 | 4645.85 | 4126.35 | 31.20 | 519.49 | 88.818 1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 21103 | 1973 (0.09357) | 19112 | 18 | 10109.67 | 10074.06 | 7.01 | 35.61 | 99.648 1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 84641 | 10416 (0.12309) | 74202 | 23 | 10352.67 | 8943.34 | 0.00 | 1409.32 | 86.387 1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 21075 | 3954 (0.18773) | 17108 | 13 | 8271.75 | 8517.32 | 14.50 | -245.56 | 102.969 1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 83367 | 20298 (0.24354) | 63046 | 23 | 49803.79 | 48623.81 | 347.79 | 1179.98 | 97.631 1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 60823 | 22328 (0.36737) | 38450 | 45 | 29914.13 | 29164.21 | 212.64 | 749.92 | 97.493 1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 530782 | 258784 (0.48795) | 271561 | 437 | 317903.19 | 316505.08 | 2173.41 | 1398.11 | 99.560 1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 195105 | 97239 (0.49886) | 97683 | 183 | 190690.25 | 188454.71 | 1295.22 | 2235.53 | 98.828 1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 150979 | 111044 (0.73587) | 39858 | 77 | 153546.62 | 151317.42 | 467.98 | 2229.19 | 98.548 1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 12400 | 9862 (0.79577) | 2531 | 7 | 21512.33 | 21274.84 | 400.00 | 237.49 | 98.896 1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 11567 | 9894 (0.85692) | 1652 | 21 | 12287.74 | 12040.25 | 400.00 | 247.48 | 97.986 1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 5606 | 5126 (0.91552) | 473 | 7 | 9865.97 | 9791.56 | 0.00 | 74.40 | 99.246 1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 7607 | 7318 (0.97991) | 150 | 139 | 16309.10 | 16031.33 | 239.21 | 277.77 | 98.297 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1318135 | 538658 | 777992 | 1485 | 329637.49 | 320693.57 | 147.21 | 8943.91 | 97.287 big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 45477 | 22951 | 22317 | 209 | 537844.67 | 534471.07 | 5673.35 | 3373.60 | 99.373 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | 1363612 | 561609 | 800309 | 1694 | 867482.17 | 855164.65 | 5820.56 | 12317.52 | 98.580 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 12317.52011634 BTC (1.420%) Cumulative Fees Paid: 686.95472500 BTC SD Profit after fees: 11630.56539134 BTC (1.341%) ---- Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been: Blockchain Tx: 4516574 : SatoshiDice Tx: 2527097 (56.0%) Blockchain MB: 1873.3 : SatoshiDice Tx: 1032.9 (55.1%)
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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zvs
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1000
https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com
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September 25, 2012, 06:30:03 PM |
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my favorite is the 8000, with initial bet of 0.001 and increasing by 20% after the first lost, and 15% each time thereafter. the first pays for the tx fees, the other times, well, it sucks to bet 10 and only win a little over a bitpenny
I tried it your way, 3 times. I started at 0.015 and added on 15% each time. The first 2 went pretty quickly, but the 3rd took 20 turns before I won. Seems like a lot of stress and effort to make a profit of 17 bitcents. Ahh, yes.... I only managed to do it for a couple of hours myself. Profit was around 2BTC, as I recall... If I just knew how to make a script for it.... Set up a wallet with 5 BTC, let it run for 12hrs, then check to see if you're at 0. If not, send anything over 5BTC to a diff wallet, restart script.... As long as you didn't stray from that plan (i.e. never bet 'endlessly') it seems to me like it'd take some astronomical odds to not come out ahead.... I suppose you could scale it up if you had more bitcoins initially. I started out with ~3BTC, which is why my starting bet was so low. Near the end (was getting bored), I did a bit of a variant where I'd place my initial bet on something like "under 2000" or "under 3000", second bet on "under 4000" or "under 6000", then the rest on "under 8000" as normal. That way you get something a little more significant if you win in your first few turns. =p
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dooglus
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1330
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September 25, 2012, 08:18:38 PM |
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Ahh, yes.... I only managed to do it for a couple of hours myself. Profit was around 2BTC, as I recall...
If I just knew how to make a script for it....
Scripting it is pretty easy. I think payb.tc posted a basic PHP script for making martingale bets on SatoshiDice in the main SatoshiDice thread. I'll dig up a link to it later if you like. It would be pretty trivial to adapt it to play your strategy. Edit: what I didn't say, but meant to imply, was: "scripting it is easy, but pointless, since every strategy is a losing strategy. The only point of playing SD is if you have fun playing it, and having a script play it for you pretty much removes any fun, I'd have thought".
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Just-Dice | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | Play or Invest | ██ ██████████ ██████████████████ ██████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████████████ ██████████████████████ ██████████████ ██████ | 1% House Edge |
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